Instant reaction: Vikings trade for Yannick Ngakoue
Vikings bring in an elite pass rusher two weeks before the start of the season
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If you went to bed on Saturday night thinking that this year’s Minnesota Vikings training camp had been rather uneventful, you got a reminder that it’s always eventful with the Vikings on Sunday morning. ESPN’s Adam Schefter and multiple other outlets are reporting that the Vikings have traded for Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Yannick Ngakoue in exchange for a second and fifth-round pick.
Let’s have a look at what it means…
How good is he?
Since coming into the league in 2016 as a third-round pick, Ngakoue ranks 12th among all pass rushers in total sacks with 37.5, just ahead of Everson Griffen (34.5) during that time span.
He has a knack for making the most of his sacks, ranking fourth (14) in forced fumbles since 2016 (per Pro-Football Reference).
The 6-foot-2, 246-pound rusher from Maryland has twice ranked in the top 15 in pressure rate over the last four seasons but isn’t as consistent with pressure as Danielle Hunter, who has been in the top 10 three of the last four years. Here’s Ngakoue’s ranking and pressure rate (per PFF):
2016 — 39th (6.2%)
2017 — 7th (9.5%)
2018 — 12th (8.1%)
2019 — 36th (6.5%)
Overall by PFF grade he ranked 25th last year and has only cracked the top 10 once (eighth in 2017).
Why? Because unlike Everson Griffen before him, Ngakoue is much more of a pure pass rusher than run stuffer. He ranked 61st of 62 in run defense grade by PFF last year. He has only ranked outside of the top 20 in pass rush grade once and that was in his rookie year.
Ngakoue isn’t a player that moves around the defensive line very often. Per PFF, he played 509 of his 706 snaps at right defensive end, where he will slot in for a long time in Minnesota, it appears.
Speaking of snap count, Ngakoue played the 21st most snaps at his position (out of 62) last year and has generally been in the 700ish range each year with Jacksonville. We aren’t likely to see him in third-and-short or on the goal line because of his lack of size.
What does this mean for Danielle Hunter, Ifeadi Odenigbo and Dalvin Cook?
It’s hard to imagine Hunter’s injury status has anything to do with trading for Ngakoue. He’s 25 years old and has a proven track record as a game-changing player at a position in which the Vikings were weak post-Griffen.
What it does mean for Hunter is that he’ll still be able to share the attention with another top-notch edge rusher. Had the Vikings started Odenigbo, it’s very likely that opponents would have bombarded him with double teams and chips. So you can still expect to see those times in which the offense shifts it’s protection and Hunter destroys a tight end.
Ifeadi Odenigbo probably isn’t having a great morning but this might ultimately play to his favor. Last year he was very effective as a third down interior rusher and fill-in player, ending the year with 7.0 sacks.
There’s a domino effect to this move that bumps Odenigbo into a valuable position and instantly upgrades the Vikings’ third down rush package. Based on Friday’s practice, Odenigbo could line up next to Armon Watts in the middle in obvious pass situations.
There’s a good career to be made for Odenigbo as a situational rusher, even if he would have preferred to play every down.
As for Dalvin Cook, his extension could still happen but it stands to reason that acquiring another player who takes up the remainder of the cap this year (and will be very expensive in the future) would lower the chances that they sign Cook. However, when the Vikings do sign Ngakoue to an extension next year, they could make his cap hit reasonable for the first year or two and fit Cook into the mix with other players like Riley Reiff possibly exiting.
How much will they pay him?
Right now the Vikings do not have enough cap space to afford Ngakoue on the franchise tender but they will restructure him on a one-year deal and then when they are allowed to sign him to a contract extension next year, he will be looking at becoming one of the highest paid defensive ends in the NFL. Right now four defensive ends make more than $20 million per season. Expect Ngakoue to join them.
It would be shocking if the Vikings did not sign him to a long-term deal. His age, good health and proven ability to get to the quarterback project well for the future. There’s no red flags with Ngakoue that would cause the Vikings to hesitate.
Hunter’s deal is currently one of the most team-friendly in the NFL, which is highly likely to change next season. He deserves a new contract and the Vikings have been willing to update deals (see Adam Thielen) when a player is outperforming their dollars and cents.
So the Vikings could very well be spending $40-$50 million per year on two edge rushers. However, the cap hits won’t be that high. Expect them to structure the contracts in a way in which they aren’t paying all that much more than Hunter/Griffen.
What does it say about the Vikings’ direction?
This is a win-now and long-term move for a team that is absolutely capable of winning their division but not exactly a Super Bowl favorite. Ngakoue makes them better but not so much vastly better that their projection will change from being an 8-10 win team. It more or less solidifies that they won’t be a 5-win team because of a struggling D-line.
Next year with Hunter, Michael Pierce and Ngakoue, the Vikings will be back to having one of the best D-lines in the game.
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Coller spoke this one into existence.
Big surprise move by the Vikings. A strong pass rush will help the young secondary. Thanks for the quick analysis.