Instant reaction: Matthew Stafford traded for Jared Goff
A blockbuster trade begins the offseason
Matthew Stafford is officially gone from the NFC North. Welcome to the division, Jared Goff.
On Saturday night, the Detroit Lions parted ways with Stafford in exchange for Goff, two future first-round pick and a third-round pick.
Trading Stafford represents a complete change in direction from the lowly Lions, who won zero playoff games during Stafford’s 12 seasons as Detroit’s staring quarterback. He went 74-90-1 in the regular and 0-3 in the playoffs during that span.
Stafford’s career in Detroit has been marred by ineptitude, of which the Vikings have benefitted greatly. In 21 games against the Vikings, Stafford has won just eight and produced an 89.3 quarterback rating. After beginning 5-2 against Mike Zimmer’s squad, the Vikings have beaten the Stafford-led Lions the last six games in a row.
So what does the trade mean for the Vikings?
Whether the Lions downgrade at QB will be determined by coaching, team building
At first glance at their statistics, you would not think Matthew Stafford would be worth sending two first-rounders and a QB who appeared in the Super Bowl. Here’s how the two quarterbacks stack up:
Stafford: 14-25-1, 95.8 rating, 6.7 Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt over the past three years, ranked 13th in 2020 by PFF
Goff: 31-16, 92.3 rating, 6.8 Adjusted Net Passing Yards per Attempt over the past three years, ranked 22nd in 2020 by PFF
But the Rams clearly feel that Stafford’s talents can be highlighted by Sean McVay, as Kirk Cousins’s once were in Washington and as Goff’s have been in Los Angeles.
The difference is the peaks and valleys of Goff’s play based on his supporting cast. In 2018, he led the No. 2 ranked offense to the Super Bowl in a year in which he posted a 101.1 quarterback rating and graded as PFF’s eighth best quarterback. The following season, when the team’s offensive line struggled and weapons were either injured, Goff’s rating sunk to 86.5 and grade to 20th.
This year he dealt with many of the same issues and came away with similar results as McVay tightened the reins even more, asking his QB to mostly throw quick passes.
If Detroit makes the most of their first-round picks and builds a supporting cast around Goff that protects from his weaknesses, he’s proven to have a high ceiling. If they can’t find weapons to replace free agents Marvin Jones and Kelly Golladay and use the wrong type of system (pretty much anything that asks Goff to drop back too much), they’ll get the 2020 version of Goff.
The timeline/contract
For 2021, Goff’s contract is rough. He will carry a cap hit of nearly $35 million into next season. However, the Lions have an out after the 2022 season in which they can release Goff and create $23.8 million in cap space (per OverTheCap). So they are only locked into him for two years, which allows Detroit to either select a quarterback this year or next year to replace him.
It’s not a deadlocked guarantee that the Lions will be tanking in 2021 but barring crazy trades or signings, it’s very difficult to see them being more than mildly competitive. Detroit has more talent than their record last year suggested under an incompetent coach but with players exiting, they’ll need to stack up talent over the next few seasons to make any serious noise.
Again, that doesn’t lock the Vikings into two wins per year over the next two seasons but Goff on a rebuilding roster certainly doesn’t strike fear into the Vikings either.
The timeline for Detroit looks like it’s two or three years out, in a similar way to the Miami Dolphins after they fired Adam Gase after the 2018 season.
Detroit being Detroit, you assume they’ll bungle it but their general manager build a Rams team that took a similar rebuild path (remember how bad the 2016 Rams were?) and has gone 42-20 over the last four years and made a trip to the Super Bowl.
Vikings will see Stafford in 2021
McVay and the Rams are putting all their eggs in the Stafford basket and the Vikings are going to see up close how Stafford looks away from his forlorn franchise.
One area where we will see Stafford play noticeably different is with play-action passes. Last year he was 26th in play-action rate, while Goff was fifth. Stafford averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt using play-action and 7.3 YPA when he without a play-fake.
By PFF grades, Stafford inherits similar supporting casts. The Rams were 11th in pass blocking (Detroit 9th) and 19th in receiving (Detroit 15th). You would figure with an outstanding defense in Los Angeles already, they will look for playmakers in the draft to fill around their new veteran quarterback.
The Vikings, who had one tremendous (2017) and one terrible (2018) performance against Goff, can absolutely count on being tested by Stafford when they face the Rams. Especially with his and McVay’s familiarity with Mike Zimmer’s defense.
What about Kirk Cousins?
The return for Stafford has to raise an eyebrow for a Vikings team that has cap issues coming off a 7-9 season.
There are reports that one-fourth of the NFL made phone calls about Stafford.
It’s likely that Stafford’s contract (he can be cut after 2021 for a small amount of dead cap money) and his reputation as a gunslinger would make him more valuable on the trade market than Cousins but the question is how much more valuable? And would new assistant GM George Paton have any interest in turning around his franchise quickly by putting Cousins in a Denver offense with numerous weapons?
Another obvious trade partner would be the San Francisco 49ers, if Jimmy Garoppolo was willing to accept a trade to Minnesota.
Nothing should be considered off the table for the Vikings. Nothing should be considered impossible in a league where it appears everyone is looking to upgrade at quarterback.
Remember: Last year the Vikings did not have plans to trade Stefon Diggs until the Bills came with a first-round pick. As KG said, anything is possible.
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Also I dont hate Couisins, he's got talent and we've never given him the line he needs, but hate his contract, that's why I'd take 1/2 that and move on. And wholly cow what is Watson gonna fetch, 5 first round picks and a first born child?
Wow, feels like Detroit got better end of deal. We'll now see if it was Stafford. I'd take half that for Cousins.