Instant reaction: Explaining why the Vikings didn't make any moves at the deadline
Instant reaction: Explaining why the Vikings didn't make any moves at the deadline
The Vikings had plenty of players in trade rumors but made no moves on Tuesday
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The trade deadline came and went on Tuesday afternoon without a move by the Minnesota Vikings. What should we make of the lack of action? Let’s have a look…
Prices and cap space
After the win over the Packers, head coach Mike Zimmer said that the Vikings’ decisions would be more influenced by offers than they would the victory at Lambeau Field that bumped their record up to 2-5.
While it makes sense to suggest that a coach and GM whose jobs have been speculated about would rather keep their pieces and hope for a playoff run than tank, judging by the fact the rest of the NFL was quiet on Tuesday, it’s more likely that the Vikings simply couldn’t get value for the pieces they wanted to sell.
— There were several issues working against the clubs that wanted to wheel and deal. First, the cap going down in 2021 makes it harder to take on players that are under contract for the future.
For example, Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph’s contract runs through 2023 and it would cost any team that acquires him $4.3 million in dead cap to release him after this year or they would owe him $9.5 million on the cap next year to keep him (per OverTheCap). The June 1 designation for next year makes Rudolph releasable but that means a team that acquires him would be handcuffed during free agency in March. In tight cap times, that isn’t exactly feasible.
Teams also aren’t excited to part with draft picks with the inherent value of picks in a dropping cap world are higher. A team might see a third-round pick in 2021 as a player who potentially has to start if their cap situation is in bad shape. (In fact, the Vikings were more or less in this position in 2020).
— The Vikings also would factor compensatory picks. It’s doubtful that safety Anthony Harris becomes the top paid safety in free agency next year but even if he signs a reasonable deal, the Vikings might expect a fourth-rounder as a compensation pick. So trading him for a sixth-round pick at the deadline isn’t great business.
It’s hard to see the return being higher than a sixth with Chargers corner Desmond King landing in Tennessee for a sixth-rounder.
— Tackle Riley Reiff would have appeared to have the most value on the market with several competing teams down a tackle. But it’s possible the Vikings see Reiff as a player who they might attempt to extend in the offseason after he’s put together a solid season. Trading him away for virtually nothing would negate that option unless he was cut by the team that acquired him.
So far this year, Reiff has only given up five QB pressures, the second lowest mark in the NFL behind Philly’s Lane Johnson (with at least 175 pass blocking snaps, per PFF).
If they see rookie Ezra Cleveland as a guard, keeping Reiff could allow the Vikings to maintain and build off what they have now in terms of young players with Brian O’Neill, Garrett Bradbury and Cleveland rather than having to replace left tackle in 2021.
— It appears the Vikings did quite well in moving Yannick Ngakoue when they did. If they waited until the deadline, they might not have seen any offers good enough to move him. (Of course, that doesn’t negate trading a second-round pick for him in the first place).
The rebuild
If the Vikings wanted to burn it all to the ground and trade Adam Thielen and Harrison Smith, it’s possible they could have done so this week but they weren’t under any extreme pressure to do that right now.
They likely want to judge where this team stands heading into 2021 before they do anything of that magnitude. If they win five or six of the next nine games and feel like there’s reason to believe they can bounce back to the top of the NFC North in 2021, the Vikings would want to keep veterans who are still performing at a very high level into their 30s.
If the Vikings have more Atlanta-like outings and go 4-12 and then look at the roster as a much greater reclamation project than anticipated, players like Thielen and Smith would still carry immense value this offseason — likely even more than they do right now.
Still, one of the issues with the Vikings failing to find buyers is that their cap situation remains tricky going forward. Right now they are $5 million under OverTheCap’s projected cap for 2021. Anthony Barr is set to carry a $15.0 million cap hit with $7.8 million in dead cap to release him, Harrison Smith will be aiming for a new contract with all of his guarantees from his last deal gone, Brian O’Neill will need an extension, Danielle Hunter is looking for a new deal and Eric Kendricks’s cap hit increases to $12.5 million.
What about winning this year?
The Vikings’ playoff odds from Football Outsiders are at 8% but the cookie has crumbled their way in some circumstances going forward.
First, ESPN reported that the NFL is considering the expansion of the playoffs to eight teams in each conference. That would give them an opportunity to possibly make the postseason with seven wins.
Some of the teams ahead of them or equal are also in peril. The 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle for the season, Detroit is without Kenny Golladay, the Cowboys are pulling quarterbacks off the street, Chicago’s quarterback situation is untenable and they have Carolina head-to-head.
Not that any of this is an argument that a playoff run is likely, only to say that the randomness of 2020 and situation may be used as a justifying factor for standing pat — combined with the fact that it wasn’t a seller’s market.
The Packers’ odd strategy
Green Bay had a chance to trade a second-round pick for Texans receiver Will Fuller in a year that might be Aaron Rodgers’s last and that the NFC is wide open and they neglected to do so.
Keeping an eye on the future is usually a good plan but the Packers just spent a second-round pick on a running back in the last draft. It doesn’t appear — especially after Sunday’s game against the Vikings — the Packers have enough weapons to be the type of team that can ride its offense deep into the playoffs.
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