If Kubiak retires, what should the Vikings look for in the next OC?
Five the Vikings' next offensive coordinator must have
The Minnesota Vikings did not make major Black Monday changes like other teams around the league who fired their head coaches, coordinators and/or general managers but the Vikings did make their way into the news cycle with NFL Network reporting that offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak is leaning toward retirement.
The story does not come as a shock because Kubiak’s comments last Thursday (as noted by this humble website) strongly implied that he might not be in Minnesota next year.
So now the Vikings could be tasked with finding their sixth different offensive coordinator in the last six years.
There are options in house, including Gary’s son Klint and offensive line coach Rick Dennison, who was Kubiak’s OC in previous stops.
Whether they decide to stay the course with the current group sans Kubiak or look outside the building, the next offensive coordinator will inherit an offense that finished 11th in scoring, a proven quarterback and a group of impressive weapons.
What traits should the Vikings be looking for in their new OC if Kubiak indeed decides to step away? Let’s have a look…
Shanahan/Kubiak scheme
There were certainly questions throughout the year about whether anyone hit the “update” button on the version of Gary Kubiak’s scheme that the Vikings were running this year but the Shanahan-Kubiak scheme is thriving these days in the NFL and has been a great fit for Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook.
Other teams operating some version of a Kubiak offense include the No. 1 ranked offense in scoring in Green Bay, the fourth ranked Tennessee Titans, playoff-bound Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams and last year’s Super Bowl runner-up San Francisco.
What these offenses all have in common is that they use high rates of play-action and marry the run and passing games together, often with the goal of creating explosive plays.
Cousins’s deep accuracy pairs well with the scheme because of his deep accuracy and familiarity with the scheme. Remember he came into the league under Mike Shanahan.
Here’s Cousins’s QB rating and ranking the last two years when using play-action (per PFF):
2020: 122.3 (fourth)
2019: 129.2 (fourth)
On the running front, Cook’s talent certainly plays a role in the Vikings’ success on the ground over the last two years but the zone scheme has proven to be a very good fit for the offensive line as well. Brian O’Neill, Garrett Bradbury and Ezra Cleveland all ended up with above average PFF run blocking grades and the Vikings ranked seventh in Expected Points Added on the ground overall in 2020 (and three of the teams had running quarterbacks).
The next OC might be wise to push the run/pass ratio slider more toward pass but that also might be a head coaching choice. The 2020 Vikings ranked 27th in pass attempts, the second lowest of Kubiak’s career as a head coach or OC.
Even if they do stay with a run-heavy approach, the best play to build off that is sticking with the same scheme — especially since this offseason might not be normal either due to COVID restrictions.
Experience
There’s always intrigue when it comes to unproven younger coaches who are considered “innovative.” Everyone wants their version of Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan. But the Vikings are not in a position to hand over the keys to somebody who’s taking it for their first drive. They have a roster built to win in 2021, not experiment with for the future and a head coach who struggled to get on the same page with his one young OC John DeFilippo.
The coordinators who have worked out recently for Zimmer were Pat Shurmur, Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak. While Stefanski was young-ish, he worked under Zimmer as a position coach from 2014-2018 before taking the position. More bluntly put: Stefanski knew what he was getting into and experienced coaches will too.
Knowledge of proven modern concepts
Over the last few years we have seen a massive increase in play-action and motion in successful offenses. ESPN’s Seth Walder tweeted out midway through the year that the Vikings’ motion increased after the first couple weeks, which may have been a Kubiak adaptation as the season went along.
There are other elements of Kubiak’s offense that fell under the “modern” umbrella that the Vikings should continue to use, including unique personnel groupings. While it may feel old school to use extra tight ends and a fullback, some of the most innovative offenses are taking advantage of the mismatches that bigger personnel creates in the run and play-action game.
The Vikings only used three receivers on 29% of plays, by far the lowest in the NFL. The next lowest was 40%. Related to that is the fact that Irv Smith Jr. had the highest QB rating when targeted. Being different is key.
There’s also plenty of modern details that fall under the finer X’s and O’s points, like using the same formations for different looks, using players in unexpected positions (i.e. Justin Jefferson out of the backfield on a touchdown vs. the Bears) and teaching points on specific routes.
There’s also the playcalling element. The biggest criticism of the Vikings’ playcalling was their commitment to running on second-and-10, which is the least efficient play call in the sport. The next OC should be aware of things like that.
Creativity with ‘playmakers’
The Vikings have two of the most explosive players in the NFL in Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Despite their fantastic numbers in 2020, it’s fair to suggest there might be some meat still left on the bone when it comes to getting the ball in their hands.
For example, only around 50% of Jefferson’s targets came with the ball thrown under 10 yards and he only saw seven passes behind the line of scrimmage (per PFF). With his ability to break tackles and gain yards after the catch, there appears to be an opportunity to get him in space more often without having to throw downfield.
Cook took a grand total of 32 snaps all season at either slot receiver or outside wide receiver. That can change, as can the Vikings’ unwillingness in recent years to put two running backs on the field at the same time despite getting quality production out of Alexander Mattison, Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah when they’ve (rarely) gotten chances.
Personnel decisions lean toward passing game
The Vikings drafted Garrett Bradbury because he was a terrific zone blocking center. They started Dakota Dozier over Brett Jones because Dozier was more capable of reaching linebackers on run plays. They haven’t had any type of speed threat at WR3 since Cordarrelle Patterson was occasionally used for bubble screens in 2016.
While some of these decisions end up on the shoulders of the front office, it’s the GM’s job to go get the groceries that are on the list made by the coaching staff. The Vikings got everything they could out of their running game this year and finished 11th in points. The area to grow is in the passing attack.
Bonus trait: Adaptability
In 2017, the Vikings praised Pat Shurmur’s ability to adapt. When Case Keenum was forced into action because of a Sam Bradford injury, they adjusted the offense to fit his skill set. When Dalvin Cook got hurt, they switched running schemes to play better to Latavius Murray’s downhill style. The next OC must be adaptable to players’ skills and things that happen along the way like injuries and opponent adjustments. Kubiak did a good job this year to keep Jefferson rolling despite teams focusing their coverage efforts toward him. Will his successor be able to do the same?
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This would be a great time to bring in Zimmer’s old buddy Hue Jackson!
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