How strong are the Vikings by the numbers?
The 5-0 Vikings are good but how good do the stats say they really are?
By Matthew Coller
Any time a team is beating preseason expectations, there is going to be skepticism about whether that team will continue to ride the wave. That is certainly the case with the Minnesota Vikings, though power rankers across the universe have moved the Vikings up into the top five slots in recent weeks.
In an effort to figure out whether they will remain there, let’s take a closer look at what a bunch of statistics tell us about the team’s overall strength and how they stack up against 5-0 teams of the recent past and the current rest of the NFL.
The 5-0 Club
In the last 10 NFL seasons, there have been 21 instances of a team starting 5-0. Out of the 19 that happened prior to 2024, 17 of the 5-0 Club teams made the playoffs, six reached the Super Bowl and one (2015 Broncos) won the Super Bowl. Only the 2015 Falcons and 2016 Vikings missed the postseason.
Here’s how the win totals were distributed from past 5-0 teams:
— One team (2015 Panthers) won 15 games
— One team (2022 Eagles) won 14 games
— Two teams (2019 49ers, 2018 LA Rams) won 13 games
— Eight teams won 12 games
— Three teams won 11 games
— Two teams won 10 games
— Two teams won 8 games
Every team and season is its own entity but that distribution tells us that 5-0 is a very strong signal for a team being elite. Only 26% of the teams finished with fewer than 12 wins and that doesn’t factor for the fact the NFL only went to 17 games in 2021.
Another way to compare the Vikings’ hot start to the season is through point differential. The Vikings currently lead the NFL with a plus-63 point differential. In the last 10 years there have been 23 teams who have outscored their opponents by at least 50 points and only 10 clubs who have produced a better point differential than the current Vikings mark.
Out of 12 teams that were plus-60 or better, all 12 made the playoffs, 10 reached at least the divisional round of the playoffs and three of them went to the Super Bowl.
While the Vikings’ start to the season has been excellent from a point differential perspective, it hasn’t been on the same level as the best of the best in the last 10 years. Five teams outscored their opponents by at least 90 points with the best being the 2019 New England Patriots, who trounced their opposition 155-34.
Again, the signal is strong. And the reality is, the Vikings were on the doorstep of outscoring their opponents by a lot more had they not allowed the Packers and Jets to come back in the second halves of the last two games.
If you are wondering, the 2016 Vikings that missed the playoffs had a plus-56 differential through five games, the 16th best of the last 10 years. However, they were only one of three teams (out of 21) to miss the playoffs after outscoring opponents by at least 50 points in the first five games.
How does the offense stack up?
The Vikings’ offense would fall more under the category of “solid” rather than elite. In terms of offenses through five games over the last 10 seasons, they only rank 54th in total points. That’s not bad by any means — it’s only four points behind the 2021 Rams — but the top 10 teams offensively through five weeks produced between 169 and 190 points.
From a down-to-down efficiency standpoint, the Vikings are a quality passing team and slightly below average running team in terms of Expected Points Added. That metric compares production vs. expectation based on a given down and distance.
Overall they rank 14th. Here is a chart (via RBSDM.com) showing how they stack up in rush and pass EPA:
The metric “success rate,” which is defined as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down, is more friendly to the Vikings’ passing game. They are ninth in success rate per drop-back but only 24th in rushing SR.
Historically passing EPA has had a stronger correlation with overall team success than rushing. Last year the 49ers ranked No. 1 in EPA and reached the Super Bowl, in 2022 the Super Bowl reps Eagles and Chiefs were both top five, and in 2021 the Rams were No. 1 and Bengals ninth.
How about the details?
Despite a tough game against the Jets, Sam Darnold is still well above average in terms of his completion percentage above expectation.
Darnold is 14th in ESPN’s QBR metric, which is designed to to, “incorporate all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties.”
He slipped to 19th by PFF’s grading system, in part because the veteran QB ranks seventh in turnover-worthy play rate.
Interestingly, he ranks No. 2 in deep passing yards (throws over 20 yards in the air) and fourth in deep passing rate. You won’t be surprised to learn that Matthew Stafford was No. 1 in deep passing yards in 2021 under a similar offense.
The bottom line on the Vikings’ offense is that they are certainly good enough to keep winning if they maintain this level of production through the air. But they likely need to maintain an elite defense for the rest of the season to put their hat in the ring as the best team in the NFL at the end of the year…
How does the defense stack up?
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