The last paragraph hits it on the head. It's much better to have some information than none, and there is a benefit to using that information to assess if a contract represents good ROI.
PFF does the best it can, but it's problematic to try and compare players given the wide differences in opponents and responsibilities. The key benefit is being able to ask "did this player do his job last year" which the rating tells us, and then consider how much of that is on him vs being exposed or hung out to dry by the scheme (e.g., seeing the difference with Rhodes no longer being asked to play man). Unfortunately with Dozier it's pretty clear the problem is that he can't block NFL players.
Good afternoon Matthew loved the read. I apologize for taking this a bit of a different direction. If you had a 'random comment section' I would put my thoughts there. I just heard that the MN Vikings are finalists in the Shaquill Griffin... Considering he's 25 had a solid 3rd year (after two dismal years, I can understand the Vikings would like him on the team... that said (in a very kind and unemotional way). A FREEGIN CORNERBACK FIRST THOUGHT IN FREE AGENCY ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR EVER LIVING MIND!#$*%^(@ (sorry for the brief out of body experience). Quite honestly, if we do not move on an Offensive Lineman as a top priority, Zimmer needs to be sent to some other team or back to a training camp for Head Coaches that emphasizes the importance of a good to great O-line to reach a Superbowl in a passing league particularly when you have a marginally mobile, let's just qualify cousins as ambulatory, QB who's analytics drop faster than the odds of Kelly Holcomb returning to the NFL, when he's pressured. My god man, he has Barr coming back, Kendrix still there, Pierce coming back and Hunter likely restructured... He still has Smith, Dantzler, and Gladney. The last two improved as the season went on last year. IF they get Griffin on a very good deal I might relax but they have to shore up that O-line...
Comparatively, after listing the defense above, that admittedly needs some work particularly an edge rusher and a 3 tech, look at the 0-line... One lineman worth spit, O'Neil who is rock solid then what? The rest of the line is incredibly substandard. No matter how good you attempt to make your defense it won't matter if the QB is dead and you can't score points. Right Tackle likely switched to left tackle and who knows what the impact will be. Right guard, barely serviceable might improve to below average with another year, Center we hope improves with better guard play on both sides... where does that come from? Left guard, we have no left guard, Left tackle, we have no left tackle so... LETS GO GET A CORNERBACK!!! Zimmer should go and coach Rugby.
Curt, I don't want to set you off and you're looking for Matthew to answer you, not a random fan, but there are arguments for a CB high on the list. First, Gladney graded a lot better (PFF!) in the slot than outside so he may become more of a slot CB. Yes, Dantzler played well, but he was out injured 3 different times which isn't exactly encouraging. Beyond those two what do we have? Hughes? I don't think so. You're third CB plays about 60% of the time and the weakest link works kind of like the O-line in that it brings the whole secondary down so Zimmer's right when he says you can never have enough of them. Also, Zimmer's D requires a ton of discipline and he had to simplify it a great deal with Gladney and Dantzler last year; getting an experienced player matters more in the secondary than in the D-line where you generally get more from rookies.
All that said, I'm with you on wanting O-line help, and even if this free agent group doesn't offer a lot of options I hope they get a couple very average guys in here, because average would be a huge upgrade. You're right that O'Neill is the only really good lineman, but think Cleveland can play G or perhaps move to Tackle, Bradbury will always be bad in the passing game, but he isn't going anywhere, Rashod Hill could start at Tackle and maybe Oli Udoh is ready to play full-time in year three. On another team you'd say why keep bouncing guys around positions and that this is stupid, but given how the Vikings value mobility at the Guard position, why not play Udoh at Guard? I've got ten bucks that says he'd be far better than Dozier and Samia even if he's playing out of position. Again, even if he's barely average that would be a win for this O-line.
Hey Rob, might as well continue this discussion lol. Did you read they signed Dalvin Tomlinson? Okay... I'm going to put aside my extraordinary aggravation that the only FA move for the offense is Rashod Hill resigning. Tomlinson might be a good tackle and I emphasize 'might'. His PFF grade 2020 was 75.1 overall which sounds acceptable but he only played an average of 23 snaps a game... 23 snaps a game and, while we are in a salary cap hell, we decide to pay him 22 million with 16 million guaranteed and a 15 million signing bonus for a TWO- year deal!! Doesn't seem to leave much for the offense. Are we going to use the entire draft for the O-line? No way will Zimmer allow that. He'll want to draft a DE first round, a 3-tech 3rd round, a safety, and 2 more CB 3rd and 4th rounds... O-line in the 4th through 7th round unless Speilman manages to bend the trend. I know I'm being pessimistic and a bit over the top but those are the trends. Yes, we drafted Bradburry and Cleveland in the first two rounds. What that says to me is Speilman is about as good at selecting O-lineman as he is finding a franchise QB! I'm actually expecting we will negotiate for an FA linebacker next.
Thanks for listening, looking forward to some dialogue if you would like to comment :) SKOL
Hah, Curt, I did. I think Matthew, Sam, and others nailed it that Mike doesn't want to wake up with night tremors from what Chicago and the Saints did to him last year. If we ever wonder what keeps Zimmer up at night this confirms it. It also reaffirms that Rick gets desperate and that desperation leads to reactive moves. Sometimes you give him credit for it (I'm thinking of trading for Bradford when Teddy went down. It blew up, but it was worth going for it versus sitting on his butt and letting it play out) and sometimes it leads to Ngakoue. I hope this result is better than both of those. There are enough reports that he tried for Lawson and Hendrickson first and you assume he was getting nervous so went for Door Number 3 with Tomlinson.
Funny, I responded to Finchy and you in another area that I think Mike will allow Rick to draft two O-lineman in the third and fourth rounds and maybe a TE late as long as he's a terrific run blocker (Tony Poljan, anyone?).
Now, I do a draft sim a day, and if I think Cleveland can play OT (and I do) and I'm focused on Guards then I should be able to draft several Guard candidates, many of which are converted OTs, not a complete sin in this scheme, in the third/fourth like James Hudson, Jaylen Mayfield, Kendrick Green, and Brady Christenson. Take two or three of them with idea that one proves to be a day one starter. That was one run-on sentence. Other teams do this so I know it's possible even if it staggers my imagination that we could.
Also, Matthew and Sam and the PFF guys have touched on this; a lot of the mid-level guys don't go early in free agency and if we're in the bargain bin section to Sam's article a couple weeks ago then we're more likely to sign OL in the next few days. Some perfectly average guys would be just fine for this OL. In fact, "perfectly average" would be a huge upgrade.
Last, thanks for pinging me; it's fun to get some dialogue going. I'm on The Athletic, too, but that's mostly quick hit/snark comments. This is more fun.
PS - I realize I'm snarky, but I mostly save it for the Vikings' brass.
I appreciate the dialogue as well :) I'll go see if I can see your other comments. At this point, I don't see any choice but to go all-in on O-line during the draft. I'd much rather have a tackle first round than a DE but I'm not confident that will happen. I don't think we have a chance at Sewell, he'll never drop that far and we won't trade up. Slater looks more like a guard to me. Love Darrisaw and he should be there... what are the odds? Its really late here, I'll catch up with you.
Ok, I'm going to repeat a little of what I did above, but every year I write an amateur draft guide for a half dozen of my friends. From the Offensive Line Overview (I know, it's a little crazy) here's what I wrote:
It’s always hard to figure out what the Vikings might do on the O-line because it doesn’t seem like they know. But I’m going to assume that either Ezra Cleveland, Uli Udoh, or Rashad Hill take the Tackle spot opposite O’Neill so my energy has focused more on Guards (or college Tackles projected as to be Guards, and there are a lot of them when you look at the movement skills Vikings look for in all their lineman. No “phone booth” guys need apply [Udoh qualifies as a candidate for Guard as well]). And you’re supposed to get Guards who can play as rookies in rounds 2 and 3. So while I list a couple of the usual OT/Guard suspects in round 1, I’m highlighting third round guys in Hudson and Green. Don’t expect much from Hudson as a rookie because he’s very inexperienced at O-Line. He’s another OT who some peg as a very athletic guard while Green’s outsize zone run blocking grade from PFF is astronomical. Note one exception is Darrisaw, an athletic monster who’s a good fit in Vikings zone scheme and incredible in the running game so if Vikings go OT at 14 he makes a lot of sense from a scheme and run-first philosophy standpoint.
• Slater, Christian Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker, James Hudson, Kendrick Green, Mayfield, Myers, Moore, Christenson, Newman
Based on current draft boards Slater and Darrisaw are unlikely to be available with a move back into the 20s, but Vera-Tucker could be and should be a Day 1 starter. Then Vikings could come back in the second or third with a DE to develop.
And...here's me DE Overview
Ngakoue signing last year, pursuit of Lawson and Hendrickson, and uncertainty on Hunter puts this high on the list in terms of need and Vikings intent to solve it. We all see mocks of Paye to Vikings at 14 and he looks like a Griffen clone so it makes sense. As PFF’s Mike Renner notes Zimmer likes “edge setters” which makes you wonder again why they traded for Yannick Ngakoue who is anything but. Remembering that, I’m picking guys who are good against the run and also generate pressures in the passing game, not just pure pass rushers. Side note from PFF, that Edge players are second to QBs in terms of first-round value and fifth year option given the salaries they command. Of the top 20 salaries in the league, 12 are QBs, and 6 are DEs. Value in taking DE in the first is way above Safeties, Guards, and Running Backs. Also, like Running Backs, DEs don’t generally have the learning curve of many other positions so often provide much higher value in year one.
Note that while there are a lot of good DEs in this draft, none hit on both physical traits and technical skillsets so all are a projection. Oweh is a Hunter clone both physically and in terms of college sack production, but Turner is also Zimmer prototype, and fights harder to make plays. Basham is really intriguing, but he has the very bad habit of going all in to make the sack and gets burned on screens and other plays over and over because of it. That will not play in Mike’s D. See Exhibit A: Yannick Ngakoue. Weaver is slow, but somehow generated 48 pressures in 2020(!) and is number one DE against the run(!). While I wouldn’t take him over Turner I couldn’t help but list him given Zimmer’s devotion to what Weaver brings. Something you may not know, but our head coach really, really believes in running the ball and in stopping the run.
• Paye, Jason Oweh, Basham, Payton Turner, Rashod Weaver, Sample
Great stuff Robk, thanks for the come back :) I have no time to respond beyond a few comments tonight. I hope Darrisaw makes it to us and we take him though I'm not optimistic that will be the case. Related to the EDs, I don't think Paye will be there. Oweh is a a lot like Hunter in many ways. The question for me is, is he coachable. If they determine he is he could be a good fit. He's definitely a freak athlete. Why do you think Perkins isn't ranked higher? Too small or is it just strength, which can be improved. I need to know more about Basham, his stats didn't impress me. I'll have to do more research. Weaver's not a bad choice either. My list would be close to yours Paye, Oweh, Turner, Perkins, Weaver. Okay off to bed!!
You won't set me off Rob :) That is reserved for Zimmer and Spielman ha ha. I agree with nearly everything you stated. My biggest two biggest issues are the weight they are giving defensive versus the offense and that they were all in on a CB instead of a DE, 3tech, or safety. Like always, it's just an opinion add 25 cents and you couldn't buy a cup of coffee in southern MN. Can we use another CB, yes, I agree but not the first consideration when the O-line is in the shape it is in and we don't have an edge rusher. I agree with the 'weakest link' statement, so between the two, I think the O-line is by far the weakest link. I appreciate your comments and feedback. I will always welcome what you have to say.
Would I like Matthew or Eric to comment, sure, but you're not a random fan, you're a Vikings Fan and I appreciate the time you took to offer your opinion. Much appreciated!! SKOL
Bit of a crazy week so I'll be reading all your guys' comments and trying to reply when I can but just wanted to say that I really really appreciate the respectful tones that everyone takes with each other in this comment section. Thanks so much for that, it makes the discussions and feedback enjoyable to read
Zimmers defense of Barr’s play makes little sense. He’s not grading well in PFF and he’s not making those wow or splash plays like Kendricks. He’s also not sacking the QB getting tackles or pressure at a good rate. I don’t see exactly how he is a positive to the defense.
The last paragraph hits it on the head. It's much better to have some information than none, and there is a benefit to using that information to assess if a contract represents good ROI.
PFF does the best it can, but it's problematic to try and compare players given the wide differences in opponents and responsibilities. The key benefit is being able to ask "did this player do his job last year" which the rating tells us, and then consider how much of that is on him vs being exposed or hung out to dry by the scheme (e.g., seeing the difference with Rhodes no longer being asked to play man). Unfortunately with Dozier it's pretty clear the problem is that he can't block NFL players.
Good afternoon Matthew loved the read. I apologize for taking this a bit of a different direction. If you had a 'random comment section' I would put my thoughts there. I just heard that the MN Vikings are finalists in the Shaquill Griffin... Considering he's 25 had a solid 3rd year (after two dismal years, I can understand the Vikings would like him on the team... that said (in a very kind and unemotional way). A FREEGIN CORNERBACK FIRST THOUGHT IN FREE AGENCY ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR EVER LIVING MIND!#$*%^(@ (sorry for the brief out of body experience). Quite honestly, if we do not move on an Offensive Lineman as a top priority, Zimmer needs to be sent to some other team or back to a training camp for Head Coaches that emphasizes the importance of a good to great O-line to reach a Superbowl in a passing league particularly when you have a marginally mobile, let's just qualify cousins as ambulatory, QB who's analytics drop faster than the odds of Kelly Holcomb returning to the NFL, when he's pressured. My god man, he has Barr coming back, Kendrix still there, Pierce coming back and Hunter likely restructured... He still has Smith, Dantzler, and Gladney. The last two improved as the season went on last year. IF they get Griffin on a very good deal I might relax but they have to shore up that O-line...
Comparatively, after listing the defense above, that admittedly needs some work particularly an edge rusher and a 3 tech, look at the 0-line... One lineman worth spit, O'Neil who is rock solid then what? The rest of the line is incredibly substandard. No matter how good you attempt to make your defense it won't matter if the QB is dead and you can't score points. Right Tackle likely switched to left tackle and who knows what the impact will be. Right guard, barely serviceable might improve to below average with another year, Center we hope improves with better guard play on both sides... where does that come from? Left guard, we have no left guard, Left tackle, we have no left tackle so... LETS GO GET A CORNERBACK!!! Zimmer should go and coach Rugby.
I agree the defense needs attention through PASS RUSHERS... I don't think Griffin would qualify. As far as trends go, based on his play so far https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=shaquille+griffin+injury&docid=608022186400116216&mid=AC15B7679858E1460778AC15B7679858E1460778&view=detail&FORM=VIRE will give you the overview. I understand the desire to give him a try with Zimmer coaching but the priority drives me crazy. It's bad enough to be sentenced to Kirk Cousins instead of a legitimate rebuild, failure to fix the O-line will definitely cause me to rant.
Curt, I don't want to set you off and you're looking for Matthew to answer you, not a random fan, but there are arguments for a CB high on the list. First, Gladney graded a lot better (PFF!) in the slot than outside so he may become more of a slot CB. Yes, Dantzler played well, but he was out injured 3 different times which isn't exactly encouraging. Beyond those two what do we have? Hughes? I don't think so. You're third CB plays about 60% of the time and the weakest link works kind of like the O-line in that it brings the whole secondary down so Zimmer's right when he says you can never have enough of them. Also, Zimmer's D requires a ton of discipline and he had to simplify it a great deal with Gladney and Dantzler last year; getting an experienced player matters more in the secondary than in the D-line where you generally get more from rookies.
All that said, I'm with you on wanting O-line help, and even if this free agent group doesn't offer a lot of options I hope they get a couple very average guys in here, because average would be a huge upgrade. You're right that O'Neill is the only really good lineman, but think Cleveland can play G or perhaps move to Tackle, Bradbury will always be bad in the passing game, but he isn't going anywhere, Rashod Hill could start at Tackle and maybe Oli Udoh is ready to play full-time in year three. On another team you'd say why keep bouncing guys around positions and that this is stupid, but given how the Vikings value mobility at the Guard position, why not play Udoh at Guard? I've got ten bucks that says he'd be far better than Dozier and Samia even if he's playing out of position. Again, even if he's barely average that would be a win for this O-line.
Hey Rob, might as well continue this discussion lol. Did you read they signed Dalvin Tomlinson? Okay... I'm going to put aside my extraordinary aggravation that the only FA move for the offense is Rashod Hill resigning. Tomlinson might be a good tackle and I emphasize 'might'. His PFF grade 2020 was 75.1 overall which sounds acceptable but he only played an average of 23 snaps a game... 23 snaps a game and, while we are in a salary cap hell, we decide to pay him 22 million with 16 million guaranteed and a 15 million signing bonus for a TWO- year deal!! Doesn't seem to leave much for the offense. Are we going to use the entire draft for the O-line? No way will Zimmer allow that. He'll want to draft a DE first round, a 3-tech 3rd round, a safety, and 2 more CB 3rd and 4th rounds... O-line in the 4th through 7th round unless Speilman manages to bend the trend. I know I'm being pessimistic and a bit over the top but those are the trends. Yes, we drafted Bradburry and Cleveland in the first two rounds. What that says to me is Speilman is about as good at selecting O-lineman as he is finding a franchise QB! I'm actually expecting we will negotiate for an FA linebacker next.
Thanks for listening, looking forward to some dialogue if you would like to comment :) SKOL
Hah, Curt, I did. I think Matthew, Sam, and others nailed it that Mike doesn't want to wake up with night tremors from what Chicago and the Saints did to him last year. If we ever wonder what keeps Zimmer up at night this confirms it. It also reaffirms that Rick gets desperate and that desperation leads to reactive moves. Sometimes you give him credit for it (I'm thinking of trading for Bradford when Teddy went down. It blew up, but it was worth going for it versus sitting on his butt and letting it play out) and sometimes it leads to Ngakoue. I hope this result is better than both of those. There are enough reports that he tried for Lawson and Hendrickson first and you assume he was getting nervous so went for Door Number 3 with Tomlinson.
Funny, I responded to Finchy and you in another area that I think Mike will allow Rick to draft two O-lineman in the third and fourth rounds and maybe a TE late as long as he's a terrific run blocker (Tony Poljan, anyone?).
Now, I do a draft sim a day, and if I think Cleveland can play OT (and I do) and I'm focused on Guards then I should be able to draft several Guard candidates, many of which are converted OTs, not a complete sin in this scheme, in the third/fourth like James Hudson, Jaylen Mayfield, Kendrick Green, and Brady Christenson. Take two or three of them with idea that one proves to be a day one starter. That was one run-on sentence. Other teams do this so I know it's possible even if it staggers my imagination that we could.
Also, Matthew and Sam and the PFF guys have touched on this; a lot of the mid-level guys don't go early in free agency and if we're in the bargain bin section to Sam's article a couple weeks ago then we're more likely to sign OL in the next few days. Some perfectly average guys would be just fine for this OL. In fact, "perfectly average" would be a huge upgrade.
Last, thanks for pinging me; it's fun to get some dialogue going. I'm on The Athletic, too, but that's mostly quick hit/snark comments. This is more fun.
PS - I realize I'm snarky, but I mostly save it for the Vikings' brass.
I appreciate the dialogue as well :) I'll go see if I can see your other comments. At this point, I don't see any choice but to go all-in on O-line during the draft. I'd much rather have a tackle first round than a DE but I'm not confident that will happen. I don't think we have a chance at Sewell, he'll never drop that far and we won't trade up. Slater looks more like a guard to me. Love Darrisaw and he should be there... what are the odds? Its really late here, I'll catch up with you.
Ok, I'm going to repeat a little of what I did above, but every year I write an amateur draft guide for a half dozen of my friends. From the Offensive Line Overview (I know, it's a little crazy) here's what I wrote:
It’s always hard to figure out what the Vikings might do on the O-line because it doesn’t seem like they know. But I’m going to assume that either Ezra Cleveland, Uli Udoh, or Rashad Hill take the Tackle spot opposite O’Neill so my energy has focused more on Guards (or college Tackles projected as to be Guards, and there are a lot of them when you look at the movement skills Vikings look for in all their lineman. No “phone booth” guys need apply [Udoh qualifies as a candidate for Guard as well]). And you’re supposed to get Guards who can play as rookies in rounds 2 and 3. So while I list a couple of the usual OT/Guard suspects in round 1, I’m highlighting third round guys in Hudson and Green. Don’t expect much from Hudson as a rookie because he’s very inexperienced at O-Line. He’s another OT who some peg as a very athletic guard while Green’s outsize zone run blocking grade from PFF is astronomical. Note one exception is Darrisaw, an athletic monster who’s a good fit in Vikings zone scheme and incredible in the running game so if Vikings go OT at 14 he makes a lot of sense from a scheme and run-first philosophy standpoint.
• Slater, Christian Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker, James Hudson, Kendrick Green, Mayfield, Myers, Moore, Christenson, Newman
Based on current draft boards Slater and Darrisaw are unlikely to be available with a move back into the 20s, but Vera-Tucker could be and should be a Day 1 starter. Then Vikings could come back in the second or third with a DE to develop.
And...here's me DE Overview
Ngakoue signing last year, pursuit of Lawson and Hendrickson, and uncertainty on Hunter puts this high on the list in terms of need and Vikings intent to solve it. We all see mocks of Paye to Vikings at 14 and he looks like a Griffen clone so it makes sense. As PFF’s Mike Renner notes Zimmer likes “edge setters” which makes you wonder again why they traded for Yannick Ngakoue who is anything but. Remembering that, I’m picking guys who are good against the run and also generate pressures in the passing game, not just pure pass rushers. Side note from PFF, that Edge players are second to QBs in terms of first-round value and fifth year option given the salaries they command. Of the top 20 salaries in the league, 12 are QBs, and 6 are DEs. Value in taking DE in the first is way above Safeties, Guards, and Running Backs. Also, like Running Backs, DEs don’t generally have the learning curve of many other positions so often provide much higher value in year one.
Note that while there are a lot of good DEs in this draft, none hit on both physical traits and technical skillsets so all are a projection. Oweh is a Hunter clone both physically and in terms of college sack production, but Turner is also Zimmer prototype, and fights harder to make plays. Basham is really intriguing, but he has the very bad habit of going all in to make the sack and gets burned on screens and other plays over and over because of it. That will not play in Mike’s D. See Exhibit A: Yannick Ngakoue. Weaver is slow, but somehow generated 48 pressures in 2020(!) and is number one DE against the run(!). While I wouldn’t take him over Turner I couldn’t help but list him given Zimmer’s devotion to what Weaver brings. Something you may not know, but our head coach really, really believes in running the ball and in stopping the run.
• Paye, Jason Oweh, Basham, Payton Turner, Rashod Weaver, Sample
Great stuff Robk, thanks for the come back :) I have no time to respond beyond a few comments tonight. I hope Darrisaw makes it to us and we take him though I'm not optimistic that will be the case. Related to the EDs, I don't think Paye will be there. Oweh is a a lot like Hunter in many ways. The question for me is, is he coachable. If they determine he is he could be a good fit. He's definitely a freak athlete. Why do you think Perkins isn't ranked higher? Too small or is it just strength, which can be improved. I need to know more about Basham, his stats didn't impress me. I'll have to do more research. Weaver's not a bad choice either. My list would be close to yours Paye, Oweh, Turner, Perkins, Weaver. Okay off to bed!!
You won't set me off Rob :) That is reserved for Zimmer and Spielman ha ha. I agree with nearly everything you stated. My biggest two biggest issues are the weight they are giving defensive versus the offense and that they were all in on a CB instead of a DE, 3tech, or safety. Like always, it's just an opinion add 25 cents and you couldn't buy a cup of coffee in southern MN. Can we use another CB, yes, I agree but not the first consideration when the O-line is in the shape it is in and we don't have an edge rusher. I agree with the 'weakest link' statement, so between the two, I think the O-line is by far the weakest link. I appreciate your comments and feedback. I will always welcome what you have to say.
Would I like Matthew or Eric to comment, sure, but you're not a random fan, you're a Vikings Fan and I appreciate the time you took to offer your opinion. Much appreciated!! SKOL
Bit of a crazy week so I'll be reading all your guys' comments and trying to reply when I can but just wanted to say that I really really appreciate the respectful tones that everyone takes with each other in this comment section. Thanks so much for that, it makes the discussions and feedback enjoyable to read
Zimmers defense of Barr’s play makes little sense. He’s not grading well in PFF and he’s not making those wow or splash plays like Kendricks. He’s also not sacking the QB getting tackles or pressure at a good rate. I don’t see exactly how he is a positive to the defense.