How much will top free agents cost? Who are the potential steals?

Using PFF's contract projections for free agents to identify which big fish are worth it and who could be the best steals

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By Matthew Coller

The NFL free agency period is right around the corner and Pro Football Focus has published its annual free agency rankings with projected contracts for their top 100 available players. As the Vikings get set to be big players in the free agency pool, let’s take a look at the best potential deals based on the projections…

The Best of the Big Fish

CB, DJ Reed

PFF projection: 3 years, $42 million

Key stat: Career 83.0 QB rating on throws into his coverage

When Reed faced off with the Vikings, he might as well have been saying, “come get me.” He was arguably the best player on the field during the Vikings’ matchup with the Jets, allowing just two catches on seven targets for 16 yards into his coverage that day. He could immediately act as a massive upgrade in man coverage, where he ranked top 20 by PFF grade while playing man over 30% of the time (which was top 30 among started CBs).

With the elite corners making $24 million per year, grabbing a proven veteran who can handle one-on-one matchups for $10 million less than top dollar would be a boon for the Vikings secondary.

CB, Charvarius Ward

PFF projection: 3 years, $43.5 million

Key stat: Had five INT and 16 PBU in 2023

Ward is proof that the cornerback position can be fickle. Two years ago, he was one of the best corners in the NFL, ranking seventh by PFF grade and sixth in QB rating allowed. In 2024, Ward missed time in the middle of the season and his numbers slipped to 67th of 77 in PFF grade. Assuming he’s in a good place health wise, Ward’s down stretch last year could open the door for him to turn into a free agent steal. The former Chief and 49er has a big career sample of being between above average and elite and at 29 years old he shouldn’t be past his prime yet.

CB, Carlton Davis

PFF projection: 3 years, $42 million

Key stat: Top 20 in run defense and coverage grade

The former Buc was a key part of Detroit’s defensive turnaround until he suffered an unfortunate jaw injury at the end of the season. Davis is one of the most physical players at his position, which would seem to fit with Brian Flores’s vision, and he ranked in the top five in zone coverage by PFF.

Similar to Reed and Ward, landing a second-tier starting CB that could solidify the position over multiple years for less than $15 million per year seems like a stronger plan than trying to patchwork the cornerback spot.

DT, BJ Hill

PFF projection: 2 years, $20.5 million

Key stat: Seven straight seasons above 65 PFF grade, three straight with 30+ pressures

Hill is a pillar of consistency, playing at least 700 snaps in each of the last three years, producing somewhere in the ballpark of top 25 in pressures and playing above average against the run. He isn’t the pure pass rushing type like top free agents Milton Williams or Osa Odighizuwa but he is a needle mover who can play in every situation.

As much as the Vikings could use a big name, Hill’s all-around play and track record might be a safer play than putting huge dollars into two top rushers who each only have one top-notch season.

DT, Levi Onwuzurike

PFF projection: 2 years, $16.5 million

Key stat: 45 QB pressures (15th among DTs)

The 2021 second-rounder finally emerged in Detroit with a breakout season as a difference-making pass rusher. While he didn’t post big sack numbers, Onwuzurike was constantly in the backfield on passing downs. He had the 15th best mark with 33 pressures vs. “true pass sets,” which removes play-actions and screens. That’s more than Jalen Carter and only one pressure behind Jeffrey Simmons.

If the Vikings are looking for an interior pass rusher on the rise, Onwuzurike is a good bet.

S, Tre’von Moehrig

PFF projection: 4 years, $60 million

Key stat: Played at least 900 snaps every year, graded sixth in run defense

If the Vikings end up needing a safety, Moehrig has the mentality that fits a Flores defense. He is a tough tackler, finished fourth among safeties in QB pressures and played multiple positions (box safety, free safety, slot corner). His price tag is on the high side but Moehrig will turn 26 this year, making him a long-term option with a chance to continue ascending in a more stable situation.

G, Teven Jenkins

PFF projection: 3 years, $40 million

Key stat: Back-to-back top 15 seasons by PFF grade

The second-round pick of the Bears in 2021 has the size to play tackle and the ability to move bodies that made him a well above average guard over the last two seasons. The concern with Jenkins that likely drives his price down a bit is injuries. He’s yet to clear 800 snaps in a season.

If he remains healthy, Jenkins could be a much better play than spending the projected $20.5 million per year on KC’s Trey Smith.

G, Mekhi Becton

PFF projection: 3 years, $27 million

Key stat: Career high PFF grade in his first year at guard

The Eagles hit a home run by signing the former top pick and bumping him from tackle inside to guard. He ranked 15th overall and 13th as a run blocker. Becton did have an adjustment period as a pass protector but he did not allow a sack past Week 6 and graded above average for the final two-thirds of the season.

Becton at a reasonable price would seem to have the highest upside. He is a freakish talent who could continue growing at his new position.

RB, Aaron Jones

PFF projection: 2 years, $14 million

Key stat: 1,546 yards from scrimmage, second highest career mark

The Vikings got everything they could have hoped for when signing Aaron Jones last offseason. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry, caught 51 passes and played every game. There would certainly would be concerns about a slide in production after a career high in carries but $7 million per year and the possibility of splitting rushes with a draft pick seems like a solid and affordable backfield plan.

RB, NaJee Harris

PFF projection: 3 years, $34.5 million

Key stat: Four straight 1,000-yard seasons

If the best ability is availability, then Harris is an elite running back. He has carried the ball more than 260 times in each of the last four seasons and ranked 11th, 12th, 20th and 15th in PFF grade. The interesting thing about Harris’s numbers from last season is that he faced the second highest percentage of 8-man boxes among 1,000-yard rushers because, well, Pittsburgh could not pass the ball. Aaron Jones saw 8-man boxes 18% of the time whereas Harris was 27%.

It’s worth wondering if the former first-rounder might be a lot more effective and potentially a free agency steal if he was playing somewhere else. It might not be exactly the same but Derrick Henry only averaged 4.2 YPC with Tennessee in 2023 and Saquon Barkley gained 3.9 YPC and then they both jumped up to near 6.0 YPC with much better offenses around them. Is Harris that guy?

The Potential Steals

OL, Patrick Mekari

PFF projection: 3 years, $20 million

Key stat: 20th best PFF pass blocking grade, one sack allowed in 2024

The 28-year-old lineman has played every position over the years for the Ravens — literally. He started as a center in 2019 and 2020 and has played at least 200 snaps at every other spot since then. In 2024 Mekari settled into a starting spot at left guard and played 998 snaps. He has routinely graded above average and shined as a pass blocker this season, though he did lead all guards in penalties. Mekari isn’t the Trey Smith-caliber can’t-miss free agent but if the Vikings are looking to pair someone cheaper with a bigger acquisition, he may be an affordable option.

G, Will Hernandez

PFF projection: 2 years, $9.5 million

Key stat: Ranked 13th in pass blocking in 2023

Remember Will Hernandez? Once upon a time he was a Vikings fan draft darling (they went with Brian O’Neill instead) and he’s gone on to have a solid career with New York and Arizona. Last season he got hurt early in the year but overall he’s had a good record of health and posted quality numbers. At 29, he could be a multi-year signing without breaking the bank.

G, Kevin Zeitler

PFF projection: 1 year, $6.25 million

Key stat: Third best overall graded guard in the NFL last year

Zeitler has been one of the quietest superstars in the league for a long time and he proved in Detroit last year that time hasn’t taken its toll yet. Even at 34 years old, he was still an elite player, especially as a run blocker. There is reason to wonder if Zeitler’s numbers were positively impacted by playing alongside superstars at center and right tackle but even if his play was 75% of what he just did in Detroit, he would still be worth a $6.25 million deal for one year.