How many games will the Vikings have the better quarterback?
PFF's QB grader ranks Kirk Cousins 14th -- how many are ranked higher? Should they be?
By Matthew Coller
When the NFL schedule comes out and we go through our week-by-week wins and losses, one of the biggest factors in making picks is the quarterback matchup.
It certainly bares out that the quarterback who performs better wins the vast majority of the time. In Kirk Cousins’s 53 career wins he has 106 touchdowns, just 17 interceptions and a 115.3 rating. In 54 losses, he has 78 touchdowns, 65 interceptions and an 83.4 rating.
Of course, the more talented QB doesn’t always perform better a given day but it’s still useful to get a sense for how often Cousins will be the better of the two signal callers as we attempt to forecast the 2021 season.
This week former NFL quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, who is responsible for PFF’s QB grades and tracking data, ranked all 32 starting quarterbacks for the 2021 season. He ranked Cousins as the 14th best QB. So we’ll use his rankings along with some context and key statistics to determine whether the Vikings have the advantage versus each opposing QB on the schedule…
Opposing QB: Joe Burrow
PFF 2021 rank: 18th
Key stat: Burrow had a 50.8 quarterback rating when throwing 20+ yards
In Week 1 the Vikings will face off with the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft. Last year Burrow’s rookie season was cut short by a knee injury that leaves his status somewhat up in the air. He is reportedly on track to play Week 1 but there’s a long way to go before that happens. There’s also the question of whether he’ll be back to 100% and re-acclimated to being in the pocket by the opener.
Assuming Burrow picks up where he left off, he showed flashes of having the potential to be a franchise quarterback in his abbreviated rookie season despite playing with a very poor roster around him. He was especially terrific at throwing in the intermediate areas of the field, scoring a 92.5 grade (out of 100) from PFF when throwing between 10-19 yards.
However, his lack of arm strength showed up repeatedly as the former LSU star struggled to threaten teams down field, completing just nine of 48 deep throws in 2020. Even with Ja’Marr Chase in the mix, it’s hard to see Burrow’s deep passing changing significantly, which gives the Vikings an edge.
Advantage: Cousins
While Burrow gave the indication in his rookie year that he might be able to return the Bengals to relevancy soon, it’s hard to say at this point whether he’ll ever reach Cousins’s level of play. Burrow might have more swag according to Justin Jefferson but he doesn’t yet have an argument for being the better QB yet.
Opposing QB: Kyler Murray
PFF 2021 rank: 17th
Key stat: Murray rushed for 819 yards and tied for the third most scrambles
If we were ranking the most exciting quarterbacks in the game, Murray would be high on the list. He’s one of the most explosive athletes playing the position and has proven to be a dangerous runner, whether it’s by design or if he sees an opening and escapes the pocket. Murray is also an incredible deep thrower. He posted a 128.9 QB rating on 64 downfield throws with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.
It’s hard to say whether Murray’s shortcoming on intermediate throws is due to the offensive design or his height but he managed just a 72.0 rating on passes between 10-19 yards with an egregious 10 interceptions in 110 such throws. There have been plenty of questions about head coach Kliff Kingsbury and whether his offense is getting the most out of the 2019 No. 1 pick.
Advantage: Even
Overall PFF scored Murray as the 11th best QB in 2020, which means they aren’t projecting big gains in his game in 2021. If Kingsbury can find ways to mitigate some of Murray’s shortcomings while still getting the explosive runs and deep throws out of him, he could be a terrifying opponent. Until he gets there, we should consider him mid-pack. He’s very different from Cousins but in the same ballpark of where he rates among his peers, so this matchup could go either way.
Opposing QB: Russell Wilson
PFF 2021 rank: 4th
Key stat: Wilson had the fourth highest big-time throw percentage
There are only a few quarterbacks over the last two decades who could make a case for being decidedly better than Russell Wilson. The only quarterback with more touchdown passes since 2018 is Patrick Mahomes. The only QBs with a higher passer rating in that time span are Drew Brees and Mahomes. And there are only four QBs with more rushing yards.
Where Wilson makes his bones aside from playmaking outside of structure is by having the arm talent to fire passes into tight windows while still making far fewer mistakes than the average quarterback. Wilson has the fourth lowest interception percentage in the NFL over the last three seasons and managed the seventh best turnover-worthy throw rate, per PFF.
Bottom line: He can beat defenses in many ways and doesn’t have many miscues that open the door for his opponents.
Advantage: Wilson
The Seahawks have absolutely owned the Vikings during Wilson’s tenure, going 5-0 in the Mike Zimmer era. Interestingly, Wilson has not had his best games against the Vikings in recent years though. He threw for just 217 yards against Zimmer’s defense last year and Seattle’s victory required a magical final drive. Wilson recorded his lowest career QB rating in a single game against the Vikings in 2018. Even if Zimmer has some answers for Seattle’s dynamic quarterback, Wilson still flies in a different air than Cousins.
Opposing QB: Baker Mayfield
PFF 2021 rank: 10th
Key stat: Mayfield had a 121.9 QB rating with play-action
In terms of passing grade, PFF ranked Mayfield 10th and Cousins 11th last year. On play-action throws, they ranked 5th and 4th and both QBs were in run-first offenses influenced (or directed by) Gary Kubiak. They are basically looking in the mirror at each other. Mayfield even went through similar hot and cold stretches last year as we’ve seen from Cousins.
Advantage: Even
One thing that separated Mayfield and Cousins last year was the quality of their offensive lines. The Browns’ budding QB had the NFL’s top graded pass blocking team by PFF and he was subsequently pressured the seventh least in the league. Cousins was the third most pressured quarterback with the 29th graded pass blocking line. Will the Browns’ O-line continue its dominance? Will the Vikings’ new-look line improve? Will the Vikings’ pass rush be better this year? The play in the trenches may be the determining factor in this very close matchup of quarterbacks.
Opposing QB: Jared Goff
PFF 2021 rank: 26th
Key stat: Goff had the second lowest average depth of target
Goff has been an interesting test case for the impact of supporting casts on quarterback performance. It wasn’t long ago that he led No. 1 and No. 2 offenses in back-to-back years and produced QB ratings above 100 in those seasons. Over the last two years, however, he has just an 88.1 rating. When the Rams’ offensive line and receiving corps lost key players to free agency and injury, Sean McVay opted for a quick passing offense that relied on yards after catch and reduced the pressure on Goff. In one way it worked very well: Goff’s sack rate was just 3.7% over the last two years.
But the Rams went looking for a more physically gifted QB in Matthew Stafford and traded Goff to the rebuilding Lions. The former No. 1 overall pick will likely have more time in the pocket this year with a good O-line in front of him but Detroit is lacking in dangerous weapons. If Goff truly is the ultimate product of what’s around him, he will have some tough days ahead.
Advantage: Cousins
The Vikings’ QB has some of the same shortcomings as Goff but Cousins is a more accurate passer and his top two receivers are far better than Detroit’s pass catchers. Cousins has also demolished the Lions since joining the Vikings, so Goff will need to shine in order to outperform his counterpart (as he did in 2018).
Opposing QB: Sam Darnold
PFF 2021 rank: 28th
Key stat: Only QB who graded worse by PFF in 2020 was Nick Mullens
There is no evidence to suggest that Sam Darnold is a good NFL quarterback, yet the Panthers decided to trade draft capital to New York for him and deal away Teddy Bridgewater.
How bad has Darnold been? The only quarterback with a worse rating since 2018 with more than 600 passes is Josh Rosen. He’s fifth worst in interception percentage, third worst in completion percentage and last year was his worst graded season by PFF. Much is made of Darnold’s raw talent but he only had nine big-time throws on 217 completions last year.
Advantage: Cousins
Unless Darnold has one of the greatest career turnarounds ever made by a quarterback, Cousins is the better quarterback by a country mile.
Opposing QB: Dak Prescott
PFF 2021 rank: 7th
Key stat: Cowboys offense ranked No. 1 in yards per play in 2019
Prescott got an unfortunate bad break when his 2020 was cut short by a devastating injury. Dallas’s defense was playing terribly but Prescott put up some of the best numbers of his career before he was lost for the year. He averaged 8.4 yards per attempt and graded as the eighth best QB with at least 200 drop backs. His success was not just a small sample spike. Prescott has the eighth best adjusted yards per attempt since 2018 and the seventh lowest interception percentage. Add that with his 12 rushing touchdowns and a group of weapons that has a case for being the best in the NFL and Prescott could be an MVP candidate if things click for the Cowboys in Mike McCarthy’s second year.
Advantage: Prescott
As a pure passer, there are times in which Cousins is more accurate than Prescott but Dallas’s quarterback is multi-dimensional and has a playmaking side that makes him a tough challenge for any defense. To Cousins’s credit, he generally shreds bad defenses and the Cowboys very well may be bad on defense again in 2021.
Opposing QB: Lamar Jackson
PFF 2021 rank: 8th
Key stat: Had the fourth highest percentage of passes dropped
In a season where the 2019 MVP regressed, he was still very, very good. He finished 2020 with a solid 99.3 passer rating (11th) and rushed for over 1,000 yards for the second straight season. As a passer alone, Jackson graded 15th by PFF but he was given very little help. His receivers dropped passes at a remarkably high rate and his No. 2 wide receiver only had 33 receptions. Surprisingly, the Ravens rarely used their running backs in the passing game, only throwing 33 screens all year, per PFF.
Advantage: Jackson
For a QB who has been wildly successful in his first three seasons, it feels like there’s more meat on the bone. The Ravens drafting Rashod Bateman in the first round could end up boosting the Ravens’ passing attack. There’s no question that Cousins is the better pure thrower and has better weapons but Jackson is among the most dangerous players in the game with twice as many rushing yards as the next best QB over the last three years.
Opposing QB: Justin Herbert
PFF 2021 rank: 15th
Key stat: Herbert had only 13.4% of pressures result in sacks (seventh best)
Over Herbert’s final four games of his rookie year, he went 4-0, completed 72% of his passes and produced a 111.4 rating. He was also only sacked five times during the final quarter of the season and the stats bare out that Herbert is good at avoiding sacks even when he’s pressured.
Overall the first-rounder from Oregon had one of the best rookie seasons by a QB in NFL history. Still there’s some reason to hesitate on anointing him the next great quarterback. Herbert only ranked 21st in rating with a clean pocket per PFF and he graded 22nd as a passer.
Advantage: Even
The push and pull between growth from Year 1 to Year 2 and the possibility of regression make it difficult to figure out whether Herbert can stave off a sophomore slump. If Herbert continues to live up to his rookie year, he’ll be the better QB in this game. He’ll need to prove that first though.
Opposing QB: Aaron Rodgers
PFF 2021 rank: 3rd
Key stat: Rodgers ranked No. 1 in big-time throws and No. 2 in fewest turnover-worthy plays
As of right now, Aaron Rodgers is still the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers. If that changes, the Vikings will likely have a significant advantage at QB when they play Green Bay unless the Packers get a quarterback like Derek Carr as trade return.
Last year Rodgers was the best quarterback in the NFL, producing a 129.7 rating with a clean pocket. He led the NFL in touchdown passes, completion percentage, rating and was only sacked 20 times. In previous years we might have considered this matchup to be closer based on the numbers but Rodgers appears to have mastered Matt LaFleur’s offense, which is pretty quarterback friendly.
Advantage: Rodgers
One thing to consider is the fact that the Vikings play against Green Bay in Week 11, which means that if they do see Jordan Love instead of Rodgers, we’ll have a good sense for how good Love is by then. Right now, we have little information to work with, so we’ll assume it’s going to be Rodgers vs. Cousins again.
Opposing QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
PFF 2021 rank: 22nd
Key stat: Since 2017 the 49ers are 24-9 when Garoppolo starts and 7-30 when anyone else starts
Similar to Rodgers, it’s uncertain whether Jimmy G will be under center when the Vikings face off with the 49ers. If Garoppolo is starting, he has shown the capability to operate Kyle Shanahan’s offense at an extremely high level. In 2019, the 49ers had the fourth best Expected Points Added in the passing game.
If Trey Lance is under center, the Vikings will have to prepare for a running element to the 9ers’ offense and a stronger deep ball.
Advantage: Even
Garoppolo and Cousins are often compared because they both can execute play-action offenses at a high level under the right circumstances. The biggest difference is that Cousins has a far better health record. If Garoppolo ends up get hurt, being traded or relegated to the bench, this one will be a wait-and-see matchup.
Opposing QB: Ben Roethlisberger
PFF 2021 rank: 16th
Key stat: Roethlisberger had the quickest time to throw last season
The Steelers leaned heavily on the passing game in 2020, asking Roethlisberger to throw 608 passes, the third most in the NFL. Many of those were quick throws, used as a replacement for the non-existent running game. That caused Ben to average just 6.3 yards per attempt. We could see a change in philosophy with the Steelers picking Najee Harris in the first round but it’s been awhile since Roethlisberger effectively pushed the ball downfield. In 2020 he graded among the worst deep passers in the league.
Advantage: Slight edge to Cousins
Big Ben is still Big Ben and the Steelers have good weapons around him but it feels like he might be close to hitting the wall that all legends (not named Tom Brady) do. If that’s the case, the Vikings could have a decided advantage at QB in this one. If Ben is similar to the 2020 version, Cousins is still a little better.
Opposing QB: Justin Fields
PFF 2021 rank: 25th
Key stat: Fields threw 67 touchdowns and nine interceptions in college
Here’s what we know about Justin Fields: He has arm talent that will immediately rank toward the top of the NFL in deep passing and he runs a 4.4 40-yard dash. The things we don’t know about him make for a much longer list. For example: Will he be able to speed up his snap-to-throw time in the NFL? Can he diagnose defenses? Can he master Matt Nagy’s offense? Will the Bears have a good enough offensive line to give him time? We will have these answers by the time the Vikings see the Bears late in the season — that’s assuming he beats out Andy Dalton for the job.
Advantage: Cousins
Cousins has struggled against the Bears since becoming a Viking, registering only an 88.8 rating in five games. If Fields quickly adapts, he could very well be the better of the two QBs based on his talent. But there’s no way to predict whether he’ll get there in Year 1.
Opposing QB: Matthew Stafford
PFF 2021 rank: 11th
Key stat: 8th highest sack percentage since 2018
The Vikings haven’t lost to Stafford since Week 4 of 2017. He’s put together some good performances but has always had the propensity to take a sack or throw an interception and an inopportune time. The Rams acquired Stafford with the hopes that his arm talent could take Sean McVay’s offense back to the levels that it reached in 2017 and 2018, though we have heard this narrative before with different Lions coaches and coordinators.
Advantage: Even
Over the last three years, Stafford has managed just a 90.7 rating against the Vikings and been sacked 17 times on fewer than 200 drop backs. Still, he’s always capable of making game-changing plays. He was 10th in big-time throw percentage despite a beat-up receiving corps last year.
Finally tally and takeaways:
Cousins advantage: 7 games
Cousins disadvantage: 5 games
Even: 5 games
The most obvious takeaway is how many quarterbacks situations on the Vikings’ schedule are yet to be decided. Is Rodgers playing? Will we see Lance and Fields? And then we have the added bonus of sophomore QBs who still have something to prove before we’re sure about what we know and several quarterbacks changing places.
The QB slate feels like it could end up being one of the most difficult or one of the easiest based on the way things come out in the shuffle.
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Fun article, and I think that all of the rankings (better/worse/even) are spot on and astute. One interesting wrinkle of the schedule is that the Vikings have some pretty good luck with *when* they face these teams. For example, I like that they are facing Burrow early before he can settle in post-injury and adjust to how teams are facing him differently in year 2, I like that they are facing Big Ben very late in the year (week 14) at which point hopefully the Steelers will be slowing down (similar to how the Steelers started out 11-0 before losing 4 of their last 5 last year), I think it is advantageous to be facing the Rams late where they are more likely to have a few injuries (given how their team is stars and scrubs, even 2 or 3 notable injuries could be massive) such that Stafford might be leaned on similar to how he was in Detroit, and similarly given their injury history it is advantageous to be facing the Niners late in the year when they might not be at peak strength. Conversely, it is bad luck to face the Cardinals so early where Kyler is more likely to be at full health (the difference between how dynamic Kyler was pre- and post-shoulder injury is dramatic - he went from at least 10 rushes for at least 60 yards before the injury to no more than 5 rushes for no more than 30 yards afterwards), we are facing the Chargers late enough that feasibly Herbert might have adjusted to his new OC and also to any adjustments that his opponents are collectively making against him in year 2, we are facing the Ravens right after their bye week so we should be facing a fresh Lamar (a terrifying thought) and a team that will have time to prepare for us (same with the Cowboys, but at least the playing field is level there with both teams coming off byes), and potentially Fields might have enough playing time to have some familiarity with the Bears offense by the time we face them (I am on the record as not being high on Fields, but I would still prefer to face him early). On par I think the Vikings are on the positive side of that ledger and am pleased that the schedule doesn't seem to give the Vikings any massive disadvantages (they are also at home for their Thursday game for only the 2nd time of the Zimmer era).
Also, I was amused by how Purple Insider just can't help itself from using hyperbole in describing Sam Darnold. As I said above, I agree that Cousins has a clear edge in this matchup, and any analytical analysis of Darnold should end up with a strongly pessimistic viewpoint of him, but it feels like a stubbornly anti-factual position to state that there is literally "no evidence" that Sam Darnold is good. I mean, here are some quick facts - he was dealing with mono in 2019 and when he came back healthy the team ended the year going 6-2 even though Darnold had a partially torn ligament in his thumb (and in that stretch had virtually identical Y/A and AY/A as Herbert had last year), in 2020 he had a substantial shoulder injury but still had the 6th highest completion percentage in the NFL in a clean pocket (but this was extremely rare because the Jets OL allowed pressure within 2.5 seconds at the highest rate in the NFL), he has played every snap under Gase who has repeatedly shown a super-human ability to suppress the performance/ability/stats of his players, the Jets team was fantastically terrible around him and went 0-9 in games that Darnold missed (for comparison's sake Tannehill's teams were 10-15 without him, so Tannehill was on FAR better teams than Darnold ever was), and also he is younger than Joe Burrow and less than a year older than Herbert.
Now, does any/all of that mean that Darnold will be good, or even has a good chance to be good? Nope, sure doesn't! It also is easily outweighed by the many stats that detail strongly how Darnold has struggled. But those facts that I provided are certainly more than "no evidence." Personally I would categorize it as "uninspiring evidence." They are real facts that support the idea that Darnold might not be washed up at the ripe old age of 23. I won't bet on it, and in fact would actively bet against it, but I also find it amusing to argue against it with such intense vigor. But then what is sports without having your HAWT TAEK that you believe and will argue with unjustified fervor? I for one support this boldly planted and vehemently defended flag that Purple Insider is standing besides. Down with Darnold!
The Cardinals and Cowboys games will be very interesting. Murray and Prescott are better QBs than Cousins but Zimmer is a Superior coach to Kingsbury and McCarthy. And if you don’t think coaches matter watch Carolina and Sanfran last year