How hard will it be for the Vikings to replace free agency positions?

Assessing the markets for each free agency position by scarcity

© Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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By Matthew Coller

The Minnesota Vikings enter the offseason with holes all over their depth chart. While they are healthy when it comes to the salary cap, there will be a ton of competition for the top free agents this year with 14 teams projected to have at least $40 million in cap space (per OverTheCap). The Vikings are also short on draft capital and they are in need of adding young talent to a veteran squad.

Not all of these needs are created equal. Some positions are robust in their options and others are limited. Let’s take a closer look at which spots will be the easiest and toughest for the Vikings to make improvements…

Offensive guard

Difficulty: Very high

Following the Super Bowl, the entire football world is talking about how to bolster their trenches in order to compete with the Philadelphia Eagles. On the offensive side of that, the free agent market has a handful of quality guards that will now garner a ton of attention. Last year the left and right guard positions crack $20 million per year for top free agents and we can expect the prices to be very high for anybody who can hold serve against the beastly defensive tackles of the NFL.

There are only 15 guards who played more than 50% of their team’s snaps last year. Eight of them are over 30 years old and five are over 33 years old. There is only one guard younger than 28 who ranked in the top 20 in pass blocking by PFF: Kansas City’s Trey Smith. The competition for his services will be so stiff that it’s plausible that he pushes $25 million per season on the open market.

If either Smith choses not to hit free agency or he ends up being out of the Vikings price range, the remaining guards will be in high demand and nearly all of them have some level of question about whether they can be a difference maker.

There are the elder statesmen like Jacksonville’s Brandon Scherff, who is 35 and still posted good pass blocking numbers but regressed from his heyday as a run blocker. Or Detroit’s Kevin Zeitler, who is also 35. Laken Tomlinson is 33 and gave up the fourth most pressures last year. Zack Martin is 35 and has struggled with injuries.

There’s the small sample size guys like Chicago’s Matt Pryor, who ranked 5th in pass blocking grade but has zero other seasons with more than 600 snaps and he’s 30 years old. Similarly Arizona’s Evan Brown was a top-15 PFF pass protector but nowhere close to that ranking in 2022 or 2023.

San Fran’s Aaron Banks is a plus run blocker but 47th of 59 in pass pro. Colts veteran Will Fries had a season-ending injury and ranked 25th in pass pro in 2023. Veteran Will Hernandez was similarly injured last season. Chicago’s Teven Jenkins has good numbers but hasn’t made it to 800 snaps yet in a season due to injuries.

What about the draft? Alabama’s Tyler Booker could be an option in the first round or they could trade down to the second round and take someone like Grey Zabel from NDSU. The problem with that is rookie linemen often need time to develop and the Vikings need to fix this issue quickly. Not to mention they have a bunch of other needs to address with their first-round pick.

The bottom line:

Rather than putting all their eggs in one free agent’s basket and hoping that player changes the O-line, they may want to take a second wave approach to signing multiple veteran lineman and see who emerges. Certainly that isn’t as flashy as landing Smith but it’s more practical than still leaving one position that still isn’t sound. Looking for guards who haven’t been long-time starters and might have upside could also potentially be part of the plan. They might just have to throw numbers at the position because at least two-thirds of the league is looking at the free agent list hoping to bolster their interior O-line.

Defensive tackle

Difficulty: Low

There are defensive tackles are available at every corner this offseason. Whether the Vikings would be looking for a penetrating rusher like Super Bowl star Milton Williams, Dallas’s Osa Odighizuwa or a pocket-pusher like Detroit’s Levi Onwuzurike or a three-down talent like Cincinnati’s BJ Hill or a sack artist like Javon Hargrave or a gap-stuffing beast like Adam Butler, all shapes and sizes.

Draft prognosticators have as many DTs projected in the first three rounds as we have ever seen. In Dane Brugler’s top 100 draft board, he has six DTs in the top 50 players and seven more between No. 51 and 100. The best fits for the Vikings may be players like Oregon’s Derrick Harmon or Ole Miss’s Walter Nolen, who are both expected to be taken in the back end of the first round.

The bottom line:

It might make sense for the Vikings to take a swing at a phase two veteran in free agency rather than the Day 1 guys who are going to cost near $30 million per year and then select a DT in the first round. Adding a young interior difference maker to go along with Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Harrison Phillips would make them a complete D-line for the first time in a long time.

Cornerback

Difficulty: Medium

The Vikings have to replace multiple cornerbacks in the offseason, even with 2023 draft pick Mekhi Blackmon coming back after missing last season with an ACL injury. They will have the option of going big-fish hunting for a corner who can solidify the DB room in ways we haven’t seen since Xavier Rhodes. The big fish: DJ Reed of the New York Jets. He is a rare difference maker in man-to-man coverage and is still in his prime.

But there are a number of other players in their primes that the Vikings could add. Re-signing Byron Murphy Jr. might be an option or they could look into ex-49er Charvarius Ward or try to sign Paulson Adebo coming off an injury or Vegas’s Nate Hobbs or Detroit’s Carlton Davis or LAC’s Kristian Fulton.

If they want to pair the young guys with a veteran, Cincinnati CB Mike Hilton, Buffalo’s Rasual Douglas, Dallas’s Jourdan Lewis and New England’s Jonathan Jones are all quality 30+ players.

The draft seems to have differing opinions about the corners. Brugler only has three CBs ranked between top corner Will Johnson at No. 13 and No. 50. That’s not a lot in terms of options. There are other sites that have more corners projected high but it might not be a year where the Vikings could rely on taking a difference maker early.

The bottom line:

If the Vikings bring back Murphy Jr., they will be able to hunt around for others to fill spots and compete with Blackmon and developing UDFA Dwight McGlothern. If Murphy Jr. leaves, then it would be worth spending the cap space on Reed or spreading out the dollars to multiple other quality players as we saw the Vikings do last year. Is it perfectly ideal like the 49ers signing Deion Sanders or the Patriots getting Darrelle Revis? No. Is it workable for them to improve their CB unit? Yes.

Running back

Difficulty: Medium