How far are the Vikings from a No. 1 defense?
Using the 2017 Vikings defense as a gold standard, Sam Ekstrom looks at how far the 2021 defense has to go to be great
By Sam Ekstrom
Two weeks into the free agency process, the Vikings aren’t exactly keeping secrets about how they plan to improve in 2021. It’s all about the defense.
The Vikings have brought in six outside free agents on the defensive side, ranging from instant starters (Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, Xavier Woods) to critical sub-package assets (Mackensie Alexander, Stephen Weatherly) to a depth piece (Nick Vigil). On offense, the outside free agent count stands at zero with only a backup receiver (Chad Beebe) and backup running back (Ameer Abdullah) re-signed. C/G Mason Cole was acquired via trade.
In a sense the Vikings are trying to duplicate what they did five years ago, only that offseason full-court press was on offense.
The 2016 Vikings finished 8-8 and finished 23rd in scoring so they attacked that side of the ball in free agency and the draft, signing tackles Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers, running back Latavius Murray and wide receiver Michael Floyd and drafting running back Dalvin Cook and center Pat Elflein with their first two picks. The result? They shored up holes around their stars and finished 10th in points scored and reached the NFC Championship game.
The 2020 Vikings defense finished 29th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 28th in points per drive and 31st in opponent scoring percentage. Now Minnesota is looking for another rapid turnaround that stems from a focused offseason approach to fix one side of the ball.
Will it work? Let’s see what the 2021 defense would have to do in order to match the 2017 defense, and whether a lightning-fast turnaround is realistic.
*All grades used via Pro Football Focus. Must have had 20% of snaps to qualify.
COVERAGE
2017 Key Personnel w/ Coverage Grades:
CB Trae Waynes (66th of 126)
CB Xavier Rhodes (40th of 126)
CB Terence Newman (11th of 39 in slot)
CB Mackensie Alexander (21st of 39 in slot)
S Harrison Smith (1st of 95)
S Andrew Sendejo (26th of 95)
2021 Projected Personnel w/ 2020 Coverage Grades:
CB Patrick Peterson (91st of 136)
CB Cameron Dantzler (33rd of 136)
CB Jeff Gladney (108th of 136, T-29th of 49 in slot)
CB Mackensie Alexander (T-29th of 49 in slot)
S Harrison Smith (10th of 99)
S Xavier Woods (50th of 99)
Comparison: Grade-wise, the 2017 Vikings cover men weren’t spectacular aside from Harrison Smith, who ranked atop the NFL. However, they didn’t have any weak links. Last year, the Vikings had three corners in Jeff Gladney, Holton Hill and Chris Jones that ranked 100th or lower. Kris Boyd also played over 300 snaps and ranked 84th. Weak links were everywhere, and it showed as the Vikings ranked 30th in net yards per attempt allowed.
The 2021 team should have fewer of those weak links, depending on how you view Patrick Peterson’s trajectory. He’s slumped in Arizona the last two seasons, which is alarming. But he’ll at minimum be a stabilizing presence at the end of games. Minnesota’s best corner last year, Cameron Dantzler, was the biggest liability in clutch situations as he was involved in breakdowns against Seattle, Dallas and Jacksonville that led to late-game scores. Peterson will need to be the Terence Newman of this group, offering heady play in important spots while playing the mentor role. Best-case scenario, he becomes the Xavier Rhodes of 2017, whose PFF grade doesn’t reflect how effective he was against top receivers. That might be a stretch for Peterson at age 31, but it’s not impossible.
If Dantzler stays healthy, plays smarter in fourth quarters and duplicates the way he played at his best in 2020, he could be as good or better than Trae Waynes in 2017.
It looks again like the Vikings will have a rotation, particularly in the slot where Mackensie Alexander could split reps with Jeff Gladney, sort of like he did with Newman in 2017. There’s no reason Alexander can’t offer the same thing he did in 2017. Gladney will need to take a step, though, if he wants to stay on the field. Interestingly, he’s in the same position Alexander was in 2017 — a second-year corner fighting for snaps in a deep cornerback room.
At safety, Smith’s best days might be behind him but he’ll still be effective. Xavier Woods will need to be similar to Andrew Sendejo, who was quite good in 2017 despite his penchant for illegal hits. It will be tough for the 2021 tandem to match the 2017 performance considering one of the pieces this year is new to the defense.
Verdict: The 2017 defense had been together for three-ish years already and didn’t require a lot of early-season adjustments. We can’t say the same about the 2021 group, which could have a few moving parts in the early going. They also don’t have a Xavier Rhodes-type — that we know of yet — who will be able to shadow and stymie top targets. Squeezing a top 10 pass defense out of this group would be a lofty goal, but it could happen if the stars align.
RUN DEFENSE
2017 Key Personnel w/ Grades vs. Run:
DT Linval Joseph (5th of 134)
DT Tom Johnson (71st of 134)
DT Shamar Stephen (58th of 134)
LB Anthony Barr (45th of 99)
LB Eric Kendricks (51st of 99)
2021 Projected Personnel w/ 2020 Grades vs. Run:
DT Michael Pierce (44th of 123*) — 2019 grade
DT Dalvin Tomlinson (30th of 138)
LB Anthony Barr (49th of 101*) —2019 grade
LB Eric Kendricks (26th of 99)
Comparison: Obviously there are more players involved in stopping the run than just defensive tackles and linebackers, but these are the primary contributors.
In 2017 the Vikings only gave up 150 yards on the ground once in the regular season at Carolina. That happened five times in 2020 against a weak interior front that often got gashed in short yardage situations — eighth worst in the league in first down rate on short-yardage carries. Conversely, nobody ever wanted to challenge the 2017 Vikings on a third-and-short thanks to Linval Joseph’s larger-than-life presence. When opponents did try to run up the middle in key spots they failed — just ask the Saints in the Divisional playoff game.
Minnesota lost that in 2020 and got punished, finishing 27th in yards allowed on the ground. They should have it back and then some with Michael Pierce returning in 2021 along with prized free agent pickup Dalvin Tomlinson. Though both had a relatively down year in their most recent season, their career averages suggest that they’ll be a tremendous upgrade from Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson, who ranked 72nd and 132nd last season, respectively.
But can they be as good as the 2017 team, which ranked fifth-best in yards per carry and second in total yards allowed?
It’s believable that having a big duo of tackles will deter teams from running up the middle, which may put the onus on Minnesota’s ends and corners. We know that Dantzler, Alexander and Gladney have physical characteristics that make them better at tackling than average corners, but we don’t know as much about what the Vikings’ ends will bring to the table. Danielle Hunter hasn’t played in a year — he’s obviously great when he’s healthy — and Stephen Weatherly may not be a lock to start with the draft still on the horizon.
Harrison Smith is still Harrison Smith, and that means an elite run blitzer who can sniff out plays before they happen. Eric Kendricks is the other constant who will be a massive asset, considering he’s actually improved as a player since that 2017 season. Barr is in the same boat as Hunter; hasn’t played in a year, but he’s still a high-end tackler.
Verdict: The Vikings’ biggest liability against the run in 2020 was their defensive line, and that unit got a major facelift. Add in a healthy Barr and Kendricks, plus the consistency of Smith, and there’s nothing stopping Minnesota from being great against the run again. Getting back to 2017 level is tough to attain, but adding Pierce and Tomlinson could be a winning formula to stop the run, even if it comes at the expense of our next category.
PASS RUSH
2017 Key Personnel w/ Pass Rush Grades:
DE Everson Griffen (11th of 124)
DE Danielle Hunter (59th of 124)
DE Brian Robison (83rd of 124)
DT Tom Johnson (52nd of 134)
2021 Projected Personnel w/ 2020 Pass Rush Grades:
DE Danielle Hunter (8th of 121*) — 2019 grade
DE Stephen Weatherly (113 of 125)
DE D.J. Wonnum (115 of 125)
DT Dalvin Tomlinson (22nd of 138)
Comparison: The 2017 Vikings graded 11th in pass rush by PFF standards. The 2020 team? Dead last. The departure of Everson Griffen, the injury to Danielle Hunter and the opt-out of Michael Pierce doomed Minnesota from the start, and not even a Yannick Ngakoue band-aid could help.
One piece of the 2017 puzzle should be restored with Hunter coming back as a top 10 pass rusher if his neck is healed and reported contract issues resolved. That doesn’t change the fact that edge rushers No. 2 and No. 3 in the pecking order are serious question marks. Both Stephen Weatherly and D.J. Wonnum finished in the bottom 10 percent in pass-rush grade last year, so it’ll be incumbent on the Vikings to either find someone late in free agency or draft an edge rusher fairly high. Even with remaining additions, it’s unlikely they’ll have two stars like Griffen and Hunter and an 11-year veteran with 60 career sacks like Brian Robison as their swing man. Keep in mind: Griffen and Hunter combined for 121 pressures in 2017. Last year, Jalyn Holmes, Armon Watts, Hercules Mata’afa, Ifeadi Odenigbo, D.J. Wonnum and Harrison Smith combined for 124.
The pass rush from the defensive tackle spot is a concern, too. In eight combined seasons for Pierce and Tomlinson, their career high in pressures is 28 (Tomlinson, 2020). Tom Johnson had a down year in 2017 and still registered 31. Furthermore, there is not a tremendous amount of depth on the defensive line. Zimmer can bring blitzes from the linebacker and safety spots, but that’s not a sustainable method for creating consistent pressure, as we saw last year.
Verdict: The 2021 Vikings are weak at one end spot barring a Chase Young-type draft pick, and their run-stuffing extraordinaires in the middle aren’t going to push the pocket as much as a true three-technique would. Perhaps Zimmer can devise a brilliant third-down sub-package that gets pressure after the run-stuffers have put the opponent in third-and-long, but early-down pressure is important too, and generating that could be challenging.
TAKEAWAYS
2017 Stats:
14 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries, 19 takeaways (T-23rd)
2020 Stats:
15 interceptions, 7 fumble recoveries, 22 takeaways (T-10th)
Comparison: One area where the 2017 Vikings curiously lacked was takeaways. They still finished plus-5 in turnover differential because of how well they protected the football, but it’s a testament to how good they were that they finished first in scoring defense despite having fewer than 20 takeaways.
Turnovers are pretty random. Last season the Vikings had seven interceptions from linebackers alone, which may not translate into future seasons. More concerningly, their cornerback group was held to three picks on the year.
Nonetheless, the Vikings finished tied for 10th in 2020 with 22 takeaways, even though they generated little pressure and didn’t play well in pass defense. The 2021 unit wouldn’t have to do much to duplicate the 2017 team’s takeaway total, which was bottom 10 in the league. They’ll just need to match last year’s production to be successful.
Verdict: The 2017 group was so good at everything else, that takeaways weren’t all that important. The 2020 group was so poor that not even a top 10 takeaway total could save them. The 2021 team certainly has the tools to be league average in this department, particularly if their pass defense on the boundaries is better. But from year to year, it’s very hard to predict where the turnover number will go. If it regresses, the defense won’t have a shot at being a top unit.
THIRD DOWNS
2017 Stats:
Opponents’ third-down conversion rate: 25.3% (1st)
2020 Stats:
Opponents’ third-down conversion rate: 39.5% (T-10th)
Comparison: It’s silly to expect the Vikings to match their historical effort from 2017 on third downs, a record that was actually broken two seasons ago by the New England Patriots.
More realistically, what were tools that the 2017 team had that made them so good, and does the 2021 team possess any of them as well?
They had an outstanding press/shadow corner in Rhodes that allowed fewer than 60 yards in every game but one. Could Peterson be that guy again? Maybe, but it would take a big improvement.
They had a short-yardage stuffer in Joseph that was huge on 3rd/4th and 1. The 2021 team has Pierce, so that’ll work.
They had a pair of linebackers that worked extremely well together and could sniff out tight ends on short passing routes. Kendricks and Barr haven’t changed.
And they had Zimmer calling the plays, which will be true again. Third downs have been one of Zimmer’s strongest pieces of coaching in the last seven seasons.
Verdict: If Zimmer can coax a top 10 finish in third-down defense out of last year’s mediocre group, then the Vikings can certainly get back there with their projected starters in 2021.
FINAL ASSESSMENT
It’s easy to see the 2021 Vikings improving on last year, but stacked up against the 2017 club you quickly realize how much they have to prove from a pass rush and coverage standpoint. It’s possible five defensive starters will be in their first year on the Vikings, which means the chemistry won’t be there right away either.
The 2017 team was also extremely healthy and didn’t have to test its depth much on the defensive side. Injuries could again throw 2021 into disarray, but even a healthy defense may struggle to reach the top 10 without some very good fortune.
Takeaways from Alexander and Woods pressers
New secondary acquisitions Mackensie Alexander and Xavier Woods spoke with reporters for the first time Monday. Here’s what we learned:
We knew Alexander struggled accepting his role when he first came to Minnesota as a second-round pick. It took him until Year 3 to break into the rotation full-time, to his chagrin, and that seemed to affect his coachability. Zimmer finally began complimenting Alexander’s maturity toward the end of his stint with the Vikings, but the nickel corner thinks he’s grown up even more after being away for a year.
“When you’re younger, you’re thinking about yourself,” Alexander said, “and sometimes that can cause you, mislead you, to do things that you don’t need to do.”
Alexander said he’s eager to be coached hard by Zimmer again and will play whatever role necessary.There’s been speculation since Alexander’s departure that he was miffed by the team’s decision to play him in a meaningless Week 17 game, where he got hurt and subsequently missed the playoffs. Alexander wouldn’t elaborate on the factors that led to his 2020 departure from the Vikings in free agency, but he did briefly address the injury situation.
”That was an unfortunate situation that happened, my situation being dinged up and not able to go in the playoffs,” he said. “Like any other player you want to go out and compete. We’re doing well, we’re heading to the playoffs and you get injured. Things happen like that. There’s not really much to say. Things happen.”Woods looks to be the Vikings’ next starting safety to play opposite of Harrison Smith. His track record in Dallas was strong, but he readily admits that his final season with the Cowboys was below average.
“Personally, I feel like I didn’t have a good season at all,” he said. “Not to my standards. I’ve reviewed it and now know what I need to work on to not be in that situation again and play like that again. I’m working each and every day to better myself so that it doesn’t happen again. Me personally, I definitely had a bad season.”What style of play does Woods bring to the Vikings?
“I consider myself a big hitter for my size,” Woods said. “I think I have some film in the past that shows I can make some big hits and get the ball back.”
It looks like the addition of Patrick Peterson turned into a nice recruiting tool for the Vikings. Both Alexander and Woods brought up that Peterson’s presence was a draw to playing in Minnesota.
“I followed a lot of his game,” Alexander said. “I watched him in high school, watched him in college and watched him in the pros. That’s definitely a guy I can sit next to and pick his brain about some things and have some conversations with him about it. That’s going to be fun to have him around, for sure.”
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Excellent read, I don't think, however, the difference in the schedule and the circumstances in the Northern Division were adequately considered in the evaluation of the 2017 defense's performance. In 2017 GB was in shambles starting Brett Hunley instead of Rogers... the defense feasted against an extremely ill-equipped QB. Considering the Packers were 4-1 before Rogers went down and finished the season 7-9 should tell you how easily they were beaten. That alone gives us 2 games that at best would have been a split with GB. 2017 was Mitchell Trubisky's rookie year, they did not have a vaunted defense... we swept Chicago that's +2 games that should have been at least a split otherwise. Bengals were not a good team. The Browns were terrible. The then Redskins were terrible. The Bucs were terrible. The Lions were terrible. The two toughest teams we faced were the Saints and Eagles. So we played 7 bad to terrible teams amounting to 9 wins and outstanding defensive stats. The two best teams we faced, NO we beat twice, once by a miracle and were killed by the Eagles wherein that vaulted defense performed horribly for 6 quarters. They allowed NO to come all the way back and lead. They were nearly completely absent in the NFL title game.
This is one of those situations that the stats are misleading. They were true to the performance but they have not been adjusted to reflect the competition. Very similar to how Kirk Cousin's statistics read.
If coach Zimmer finally unleashes Barr as a relentless blitzer (among others), this defense could be something fierce. Continue to play the passive-reaction style, teams will continue to pick them apart. Really looking forward to see if coach does anything different after this splurge of defensive pieces.