How far are the Vikings away from the Conference Championship weekend teams?
How do the Seahawks, Rams, Patriots and Broncos stack up to the 2025 Vikings?
By Matthew Coller
Along with 28 other clubs, the Minnesota Vikings will be watching the AFC and NFC Championship games from home wondering: How do we get there next year?
Even within one team, there are a lot of different answers and we will investigate those throughout the offseason. But in order to figure out where the Vikings need to go with their roster and strategy during the next few months to improve their odds at playing late into January 2027, we have to know exactly where the bar is set.
So let’s take a closer look at the four remaining teams and how far the Vikings were away from them on offense, defense and special teams.
*All numbers via Pro-Football Reference unless otherwise stated
Offense
The most obvious place to begin is with the sheer number of points scored by each club. How many points are the Vikings really away from playing with the big boys?
The answer: A lot.
In terms of scoring totals, the finalists produced an average of 129 more points than the Vikings in 2025. They ranked first, second, third and 14th in scoring.
As we know, the vast majority of scoring total is made up of teams being good offensively but there are factors that go into that. Kicking is important, so is field position. That’s where Expected Points Added can paint a better picture of how good each club’s offense actually was and which areas where they shine.
(EPA compares performance vs. situation. The expected points a team should score with a first-and-10 from the 50 vs. a 50-yard touchdown pass, for example).
Anyone could have watched the Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks and Rams play this year and told you that their passing games were better than the Vikings but when you see the numbers on paper, it’s startling. The Patriots and Rams, whose QBs are No. 1 and 2 favorites for MVP, produced in the ballpark of 240 points better through the air than the Vikings. The average of the four was around 100 points better.
For the record, the 2024 Vikings with Sam Darnold were +136.8 in total pass EPA.
The Patriots and Rams were No. 1 and 2 and Seattle ranked 9th and Denver 11th. So even the worst passing game remaining was well above average in terms of total pass production.
If we look at the details a little closer, New England, L.A. and Seattle all ranked in the top five in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which adjusts for sacks and interceptions. The Broncos and Rams were No. 1 and 2 in sack percentage, Seattle was 11th and NE 26th. The Vikings were 29th in ANY/A and 31st in sack percentage.
In terms of passing yardage per game, L.A. was first, New England 4th, Seattle 8th and Denver 11th. The Vikings were 28th.
Did these teams get there by throwing short or deep?
Per TruMedia, the Patriots and Rams were No. 1 and 2 in Average Depth of Target. The Seahawks were 16th and Denver 22nd. The Vikings were 18th.
The idea that Kevin O’Connell has the wrong idea by designing a deep passing offense does not seem to hold up here — though there are other answers, as you can see.
The takeaway here is obvious: The Vikings passing game doesn’t just have to improve in order to make a case to play on championship weekend next year, it has to grow wings and get a rocket booster strapped to it.
When KOC says it was nowhere close to their standard, he’s right. In previous seasons, the passing EPA totals ranked 6th, 16th and 8th. Those attacks were not at the level of the Patriots and Rams but they were much closer to the average club that made it this far.
Can the Vikings expect JJ McCarthy to make a big enough jump to pass in the ballpark of Seattle or Denver?
I’ll toss this grenade and run away: Kyler Murray’s 2024 Arizona Cardinals were +81.6 in passing EPA. Not close to the top teams, not that far away from the Hawks or Broncs.
Maybe you’re also wondering where the conference championship clubs rank in supporting cast. In terms of pass blocking, Denver was No. 1, New England 5th, Seattle 20th and Los Angeles 21st by PFF. The Vikings were 13th.
In terms of receiving PFF grade: Los Angeles 1st, Seattle 3rd, New England 4th, Denver 26th. The Vikings were 23rd.
The takeaway: All four teams fell in the range between marvelous and well above average when it comes to passing. They all leaned into their quarterbacks, some in different ways and with different degrees of supporting cast. In order to reach the average level of passing performance to play on championship weekend, the Vikings would need an enormous turnaround to even reach Denver or Seattle’s level, much less the MVP-caliber production of NE and LA.
Alright, let’s look at the run games…
What?
That’s right. The Vikings had more total EPA on the ground than three of the final four teams.
Even if we break this down to EPA/play, the Rams are the only top five efficient rushing team left. The Vikings are 13th on a per-play basis (TruMedia).
There is a caveat to these numbers, which is that the Seahawks and Patriots still ran the ball often even if they did not produce positive EPA. They finished 5th and 7th in total carries, while the Rams and Broncos were 16th and 20th, respectively.
The Rams, Broncos and Seahawks used their run games to set up play-action often with Matthew Stafford ranking No. 1 in play-action percentage, Bo Nix 11th and Sam Darnold 12th. The Patriots used less play-action with Drake Maye only ranking 22nd at 25% of his drop-backs.
JJ McCarthy was 8th in play-action percentage so KOC was making an effort to tie the run to the pass.
The individual running backs on this list had their moments. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet both scored in the top five by PFF grade and LA’s Kyren Williams graded as the 7th best back. TreVeyon Henderson averaged 5.1 yards per carry in a rotational role and RJ Harvey scored seven touchdowns for Denver. But many of the NFL’s best RBs like Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, De’Von Achane, Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall will be watching from home.
Are we back to RBs don’t matter?
Of course not.
But it’s pretty clear that the idea that the Vikings’ lack of an dominant run game wasn’t anywhere close to what cost them from being a legitimate contender.
However, last year the Vikings were -25.9 total EPA. The finalists suggest that the difference between a mildly impactful run game like Seattle, New England or Denver and a horrendous run game like the Vikings in 2022-2024 makes a pretty big difference.
Defense
Prepare yourself for a trend: On paper, the Vikings had a championship-caliber defense.
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