How could the Vikings make the cap work around a big free agent?
I gave it a try using OverTheCap's cap calculator and it's not easy
By Matthew Coller
Last week here at Purple Insider, we took a look at the best of the “big fish and bargain” free agents that the Minnesota Vikings could target when free agency opens.
As you might expect, the most common response to the “big fish” options was that pouring too much cap space into one player would be problematic with multiple holes to fill on the roster.
But is that really the case? We often hear “the cap is a myth” and it’s routinely pointed out that the Vikings have worked around cap issues for years. Last offseason they traded for Yannick Ngakoe and made the pieces fit by asking Riley Reiff to take a pay cut. Could they do something like that again in order to get a game-changer?
In order to get a better handle of what the front office is facing, I started toying with OverTheCap.com’s tool called the “Cap Calculator.” It allows you to play the role of cap expert by restructuring contracts, signing free agents, trading players and designating June 1 cuts — pretty much anything an NFL team can do to work with the salary cap is on the table.
The tool is a little tricky if you’re not very familiar with contract structures but once you’ve done a little studying of other contracts, you get a good feel for how the whole operation works and can start GM’ing away.
Trying to make it all work is like putting together a puzzle only you can change the shape of the pieces if they don’t exactly fit — but there’s only a limited number of pieces that you can use the scalpel on.
Since the No. 1 player on my “big fish” list was Washington right guard Brandon Scherff, I decided to start there (though there was a report from the Washington Post that he could stay in DC).
I fiddled around with his contract using some of the Vikings’ recent extensions and Zack Martin’s deal with the Cowboys as an outline and eventually landed on a five-year contract with $43 million guaranteed and cap numbers of $11.4 million, $15.4 million and $5.5 million in the first three years before getting to the whopping $17 million numbers over the final two years .
I’m not sure Vikings Executive Vice President-Football Operations/cap expert Rob Brzezinski would be proud of the deal but it gives us a general ballpark figure to work with. So signing Scherff to that monster contract would put the Vikings $20 million over OTC’s projected $184 million cap.
Now what?
Fitting Scherff on the roster means cutting starting left tackle Riley Reiff to create $11.75 million and get us down to $9 million over the cap. There really isn’t another viable way of going about it. Extending Reiff at a fair price is an option but it doesn’t lower his cap hit enough to make a big dent in the $20 million over.
To clear enough space to sign the draft class and other bargain free agents, I gave an extension to Harrison Smith, restructured Anthony Barr, cut Kyle Rudolph, Shamar Stephen and Dan Bailey. That brought my total to $175 million, almost $9 million in space.
Here’s what it looked like on OverTheCap.com:
Where would this scenario leave us with filling the rest of the team’s needs?
They would still be missing a safety, defensive line help, a veteran corner, WR3 and a guard (assuming Ezra Cleveland is moving to tackle).
This approach would require some patience in free agency — meaning waiting until right before the start of camp to sign the remaining players that the league has passed over.
In our mock scenario, I decided to sign defensive end Alex Okafor, guard Nick Easton and safety Jaquiski Tartt for $2 million each, bring back linebacker Todd Davis for $1 million and give original-round tenders to RFAs Mike Boone and Chad Beebe.
That leaves us with $1.2 million left. One last move to create some more space: Re-work Danielle Hunter’s deal to give him more guaranteed money and lower his cap hit to $14 million.
That opens up just enough space to keep Ifeadi Odenigbo on his RFA deal and add receiver Breshad Perriman at $2 million. Here’s what we’re looking at:
Alright, maybe your head is spinning at this point. Mine is too. Being a cap guy is hard. So let’s get to the brass tacks of the exercise.
Here’s what we can learn:
— Scherff is about the most expensive free agent the Vikings would ever target and there are still ways that they could make him fit under the cap. But it takes a ton of work, including cutting a solid left tackle.
It also would mean relying quite a bit on signing veterans from the bottom of the free agent barrel and banking on the 2019, 2020 and 2021 draft classes clicking rather than having a safety net. They would have to hope Ezra Cleveland is ready to play tackle, Jeff Gladney and Cam Dantzler take steps forward, Mike Hughes stays healthy or someone else emerges and a young defensive lineman can make an immediate difference.
That’s a lot to ask.
— It says something about the conversations about trading Kirk Cousins. While Cousins has been a very good quarterback overall in Minnesota, you can see how much different the conversation about landing an expensive free agent would be if the Vikings didn’t have his cap hit.
That isn’t to imply they *should* trade Cousins, it’s only to say that’s why it’s a discussion.
— Danielle Hunter’s situation doesn’t swing the cap all that much in 2021 but it does significantly impact how much work the Vikings need to do in order to rebuild the defense. If he signs an extension, Michael Pierce returns and Ifeadi Odenigbo stays on an RFA deal (or extension), they appear to be only one or two players away from a vastly better D-line. If Hunter is trade — a move that would only save the Vikings $5.2 million — it’s going to feel like they’re worlds away from having an impact pass rush.
— Restructuring is cool for this year but it has implications down the road. Converting $4 million of Barr’s base salary to bonus saved space in 2021 but added space in 2022. Similar to June 1 cuts, these work-arounds have repercussions.
— The Vikings have a really interesting formula to deal with on the offensive line. Do they believe Cleveland can play tackle? Would they move Brian O’Neill? Do they think they can find another bargain guard?
— There is an abundance of solid free agents that will land somewhere between bottom-of-the-barrel and big fish. It might be the most likely approach that the Vikings take in free agency rather than playing with fire.
Feel free to play around with the Cap Calculator and drop the results in the comments…
Support the businesses that support Purple Insider by clicking below to check out Sotastick’s Minnesota sports inspired merchandise:
Great article Mathew but it's time to move on from these guys and cut the losses there's no way they can survive with a 40 million dollar cap hit with Kirk and another big chunk with Barr.
More than any other year of the Spielman/Zimmer regime, this feels like one where they really have to get creative with the cap and the roster and "win" during the free agency period. I would say working out a new contract for Hunter (or, less palatable probably, getting a real haul for him in a trade) is really the starting point, but beyond that Spielman has to figure out how to add impact players on both lines, probably in the secondary, and probably at WR. If they don't get free agents who make serious contributions--last year, and other years, they did not--the Vikings probably don't make the playoffs and the Spielman/Zimmer era is probably over. Of course they will fill holes in the draft (I agree with Grant that, under Matthew's scenario, Christian Barmore looks like a great pick), but you have to operate under the assumption that none of your draft picks will give quality starter snaps, and you need to add a lot of those.