How accurate is the mock draft universe when it comes to QBs?
Looking at consensus big boards from the past to learn about three QB prospects who could be on the Vikings radar
By Matthew Coller
It isn’t draft season until there is a rumor that a consensus top draft pick could fall on draft night. On Sunday, NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said on the Move The Sticks podcast that he talked to an evaluator who thinks that expected top-two pick Drake Maye from North Carolina could fall down the board on draft night. And off we go…
Currently Mock Draft Database, a collection of 90 big boards and 543 mocks, has Maye expected to be taken No. 3 overall.
If the pang of anti-Maye buzz is already too much for you, wait until you hear about the wild swings in opinion already about Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy.
Here is a chart (via MockDraftDatabase) of Penix Jr.’s mock rankings since October:
Throughout the season McCarthy dipped as low as 89 and Nix 48 according to the mock draft community.
Presently the mock draft rankings look like this:
Both Nix and Penix Jr. slid down boards recently because of their performances at the Senior Bowl. Neither player received the types of rave reviews that Justin Herbert or Jordan Love once got. Jalen Hurts also had a rough time in Senior Bowl practices and Kellen Mond won Senior Bowl MVP, so it may not be the predictive measure that some of the analysis community is treating it like.
So as the Minnesota Vikings are in position where they could potentially be QB needy come draft night and have options with the No. 11 overall pick in the draft, how can we get a sense for where the quarterbacks will land? Will we have a very good feel for what the Vikings might be able to do on draft night after all the NFL Combine buzz happens and final mocks and big boards are submitted?
Let’s have a look at recent history…
Here is a comparison of Mock Draft Database’s final big board positions of all QBs who were pre-draft expected to be first or second-round picks versus where the quarterback was actually picked…
Some takeaways:
— The analysis universe has rarely been off when it comes to top-10 draft picks. What happened with Will Levis last year was an outlier. Out of 15 QBs analysts believed would be picked in the top 10, only Levis, Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields did not end up being taken there and Haskins and Fields were still high picks. This leans heavily toward Drake Maye remaining at the top and Jayden Daniels (5th) being selected very high as well.
— The draft insiders were too low on quarterbacks who were picked inside the top 10 regularly. Whether it’s Patrick Mahomes being considered a late-first round project or nobody expecting Mitch Trubisky, Josh Allen or Daniel Jones to go as high as they did, there seems to be more “reach” QBs. That stands to reason considering the value of the position. Could that mean that Nix, McCarthy or Penix Jr. could be surprise reaches?
— Well, there’s just as many “debated” quarterbacks who were picked wildly lower than expectations. From Lamar Jackson to Drew Lock to the massive overrating of Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell to Hendon Hooker, the big-board makers often believed that the NFL would take a swing based on hopes and dreams. Jackson is the only one of these types to do anything in the NFL. If the league lets someone slide way past their projected spot, they see something the outside world does not.
— Players in the McCarthy/Nix/Penix Jr. range from 27-38 (which could definitely change during the Combine) were DeShone Kizer, Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder and Hendon Hooker. That probably isn’t predictive but isn’t particularly promising either.
— Overall the accuracy was decent but not strong enough to lock anyone’s position into place. Out of 33 QBs since 2017 who got the designation from analysts as first or second-round picks, 13 of them were off by more than 10 spots from where they were actually drafted and nine of those were 20-plus spots away.
With this data in hand we can surmise that if McCarthy/Nix and Penix Jr.’s big board rankings stay the same throughout the NFL Combine then the Vikings could potentially trade down in the first round or trade back into the first for a quarterback and get at least one of them. Considering that Daniel Jones is the only player player to jump from the 30s to the top 10, it would be incredibly unusual if that happened with any of these gentlemen.
It might also be a case for a mega trade to the top of the draft because history has not been kind to QBs who couldn’t sell the draft community on a top-25 pick.
The question as we approach the Combine might be how much any of these QBs can change their stock in the coming weeks. Last year Will Levis’s expected draft position plummeted after the Combine.
Here’s his chart (via MDD):
However, we can’t always trust the immediate takeaway big boards from the Combine because Malik Willis’s stock jumped after he appeared to have a good workout on NFL Network. Here’s Willis’s chart:
Right now we could only conclude that if the Vikings are into one of the three QBs who are projected outside the top 10, then they will be able to get them. The mockers aren’t often fooled that badly. How far could the Vikings drop back? Hard to say. Are any of the big board projections are actually aligned with the NFL’s opinion? Also hard to say.
Here’s another thing: Will the Vikings have to decide on trying to trade up vs. taking McCarthy, Nix or Penix Jr. or will this conversation be made moot with a Kirk Cousins return in March? Also hard to say but if they are not convinced on any of the three then the odds naturally increase of a Cousins return.
Awesome article Matt!
A trade down and still drafting a dt/de, while drafting one of the "late 3" QB's could end up being Kwesi's move. I think that QB wise that strategy has a pretty decent chance of failing, but you have to take shots at hitting that guy.