Grading every 2020 offseason move with hindsight
What do the moves from last offseason tell us about how the Vikings got to 6-9 and where they're going?
While there is still one week remaining in the Minnesota Vikings’ season, their year ended for all intents and purposes on Christmas Day with a 52-33 loss to the New Orleans Saints. With 2020 essentially wrapped up, we’ll have all sorts of offseason coverage here on Purple Insider coming — from who’s staying/who’s going to free agents to draft simulations and on and on (look for the Future Of The Vikings series coming soon) — but before we get to the future, let’s have a look at the past. With 15 games completed, we have a sample size to analyze how the Vikings’ major moves from last offseason turned out. So off we go…
Kirk Cousins signs two-year, $66M extension
What we thought then:
When the Vikings made the move to sign Cousins to an extension, the timing came as a bit of a surprise. There was a case to let the final year of his contract play out and then decide on his future but the Vikings signed him right at the beginning of free agency in order to open up cap space.
Reactions were pretty split between those who would have rather have seen team play wait-and-see with Cousins (and possibly draft a quarterback in the first round) and those who supported the deal, feeling that it solidified the QB position.
How it turned out:
Put this one under: It’s complicated. Overall Cousins’s numbers were very good in Year 1. He’s going to end the year as a top 10 QB in PFF grades and QB rating but those numbers aren’t completely indicative of the quarterback play. Cousins led the league in INTs midway through the season and more than 60% of his yards have come when playing from behind. While he had some terrific games and even a few game-winning drives, they weren’t enough to overcome the rest of the team’s shortcomings.
Grade: B-
The grade isn’t so much about Cousins’s play, which was good overall. It’s more a reflection of the Vikings failing to make the playoffs in the cheapest year of his contract and electing a run-first philosophy that has landed the Vikings 27th in pass attempts. Now the QB draft class is one of the strongest in years but it’s harder to justify drafting a QB unless Cousins is trade.
Bottom line: This grade is still subject to change. There are plenty of scenarios in which the deal ends up working out in their favor. But for now, the contract will take up a huge percentage of the cap on a player that they don’t seem to see as the centerpiece of the offense.
Xavier Rhodes, Linval Joseph, Josh Kline released
What we thought then:
Rhodes and Joseph were set to carry huge cap hits into 2020 and neither played up to their previous Pro Bowl levels in 2019. Rhodes ranked near the bottom of the NFL in QB rating allowed and Joseph battled injuries. Both moves seemed necessary.
Kline’s release was confusing at first because he’d largely played at an average level in 2019 but when he didn’t sign anywhere else, it was clear there was more to the story i.e. injuries.
How it turned out:
Heading into Week 16, Rhodes was the sixth highest graded corner in the NFL by PFF and allowed a 73.3 QB rating into his coverage. Whether it was scheme or health, he had a massive bounce-back year.
Here’s how the Vikings’ corners performed in QB rating allowed (per PFF):
Chris Jones — 131.0
Jeff Gladney — 126.5
Kris Boyd — 121.3
Cam Dantzler — 94.0
Linval Joseph graded 32nd of 70 defensive tackles and created 22 pressures for the Chargers. Here’s a crazy stat: In 362 pass rushing snaps, Joseph created more QB pressures than Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson did in 633 pass rush snaps. However, the Vikings couldn’t have predicted when they released Joseph that Michael Pierce would opt out.
In 2019, Kline allowed 21 pressures. This year Ezra Cleveland, Dru Samia and Brett Jones allowed 40 combined.
Grade: C
The Vikings’ overall cornerback and defensive tackle play was among the worst in the NFL so both players were missed but the Vikings couldn’t have afforded to keep them with their salary cap issues. Rhodes’s rebound, however, brings about some questions about what went wrong.
Bottom line: You can’t blame the Vikings for these decisions but Rhodes, Joseph and Kline’s replacements did not fill their shoes by any means.
Franchise tag Anthony Harris
What we thought then:
The entire world expected Harris to hit the free agent market but the Vikings tagged him in the final hour, which brought speculation that they would try to trade him in order to get a draft pick in return rather than taking a compensatory pick.
When he wasn’t traded at the draft, it appeared questionable to have more than $20 million in cap space spent on two safeties but the Vikings also were going to be relying on young cornerbacks, so it made sense to keep veteran safeties in place.
How it turned out:
Harris sunk from one of the highest graded safeties in the NFL in 2019 to 32nd of 63 by PFF metrics. He didn’t have the same opportunities to make game-changing interceptions as he did the previous year. He still only allowed 12-of-24 passing into his coverage with five pass breakups. The Vikings elected again not to trade him at the deadline despite being 2-5.
Grade: D
This move didn’t work on numerous levels. The Vikings didn’t get a draft pick to use in 2020 as they rebuilt the defense. They didn’t get a 2021 draft pick at the deadline and now they will likely receive a lower compensatory pick because Harris won’t be as highly paid as he would have last year hitting the market. Overall his performance wasn’t worthy of $11 million on the cap either.
The bottom line: If you were in court accusing the Vikings of failing to decide whether they were going for the playoffs or rebuilding, the handling of Harris’s situation would be Exhibit A.
Michael Pierce signs three-year contract
What we thought then:
A three-year, $27 million contract for a nose tackle is quite an investment considering the shortage of cap space. Pierce is an excellent player but had never played 600 snaps in a season before. Still, he was expected to bring some of the best run stuffing prowess in the league.
How it turned out:
With concerns over his health, Pierce opted out of the 2020 season.
Grade: TBD
The bottom line: Nobody can be criticized for an opt-out in these crazy times. We’ll grade this one down the road. There’s no question Pierce was missed.
Stefon Diggs traded to Buffalo for a first-round pick
What we thought then:
On one hand, trading away the Minneapolis Miracle man because he had become disgruntled with his role was not exactly the best look and everyone figured the masterful route runner who carried the passing game in 2019 would be hard to replace. On the other hand, the Vikings got great value back, cap space and a player off their hands who was clearly unhappy with his circumstances.
How it turned out:
Diggs became the most targeted receiver in the NFL and the Vikings used the draft pick on Justin Jefferson, who instantly became the best rookie receiver in the NFL and broke Randy Moss’s team record for receptions by a receiver.
Grade: B+
There’s a great case to give an A to this trade because of the player the Vikings ended up getting in the draft. However, Diggs’s performance in Buffalo put a spotlight on the offensive philosophy that — at times — seemed to leave Jefferson out in the cold too.
The bottom line: All’s well that ends well, as long as the Vikings don’t end up with the same problem in the future.
Draft Justin Jefferson, Jeff Gladney, Ezra Cleveland and Cam Dantzler
What we thought then:
The draft was widely praised and given A’s across the board from analysts.
How it turned out:
Jefferson shot to superstardom by Week 3 when he put up 175 yards in his first start against Tennessee. The others had ups and downs.
Gladney had spurts of strong play but suffered some rough weeks and graded 70th of 75 corners by PFF.
Dantzler graded 18th and showed impressive playmaking ability. However, he suffered two injuries that kept him out at least multiple weeks.
Cleveland immediately move positions from leftect tackle to left guard and then slotted in at right guard when there were injuries. He graded as the 21st best run blocker but 75th of 91 in pass blocking.
Grade: B+
Gladney, Cleveland and Dantzler are playing the toughest positions to transition quickly from college to the NFL. Usually the book isn’t written on corners or offensive linemen in the first two or three years much less as rookies. Each player showed signs of their talent but had plenty of welcome-to-the-NFL moments.
The bottom line: Jefferson alone would make the Vikings’ draft class highly graded. The only reason this isn’t an A is the confusing usage of Ezra Cleveland and the fact the cornerbacks were thrown to the wolves with no veteran help in their room.
Acquired Yannick Ngakoue for a second-round pick
What we thought then:
We weren’t aware that Danielle Hunter’s injury would keep him out for the entirety of the 2020 season at the time. Maybe they were. It’s hard to know. But the expectation was that Hunter and Ngakoue would be a dynamic duo in the pass rush — whether that was for years to come or just 2020 was unclear. It made sense, however, that they would want to sign Ngakoue to an extension after dolling out such a high draft pick for his services.
How it turned out:
Ngakoue is probably going to end up leading the team in sacks despite the team trading him away at the deadline, which speaks volumes about their ability to rush the passer this season. The Vikings decided that it was better to get a third-round pick for the one-dimensional rusher rather than letting him walk in the offseason and getting a compensatory pick down the road. They decided he wasn’t worth the money to sign long term.
Grade: D-
The Vikings went 1-5 with Ngakoue and then dropped from the middle of the second round to late third round in draft position without gaining anything. The only redeeming thing about this move is that they cut bait at the right time.
The bottom line: This move also falls under the bigger picture category of questioning why the Vikings thought their defense was one player away with so much turnover and whether they properly evaluated Ngakoue’s body of work in Jacksonville considering he didn’t turn out to be a fit.
Dalvin Cook signs extension
What we thought then:
There was a lot of debate over this one. Some felt that there was no circumstance in which a running back should be signed to a big contract. There were also reasonable worries about his injury history. Others found the contract to be reasonable considering it came with cap hits of $4.6 million in 2020 and $5.2 in 2021.
How it turned out:
Cook was one of the best running backs in the NFL and remained healthy for nearly the entire year. He’s graded third highest by PFF, ranks second in rushing yards, sixth in yards per carry and first in runs of more than 10 yards. The only concern about his extension this year was Cook’s usage. If he doesn’t play Week 17, he’ll have gone over 300 carries in just 14 games.
Grade: B+
The Vikings absolutely got bang for their buck with Cook this year. He played at an elite level and had a tremendous season. The only downside is that it feels like his early-2000s-level usage was for naught with the team missing the playoffs.
The bottom line: This one has a TBD element. If Cook’s usage doesn’t impact him next season and he has a similar year, the extension will be a success. He did prove this year that he could stay healthy for an entire season. But technically 2020 was the final year of his original contract so we will see down the road if the extension ends up working out or if they should have let him walk after this year.
The 2020 offseason bottom line:
The Vikings placed a lot of bets in the 2020 offseason — some were forced, some weren’t. They had to gamble that rookies could take the place of veterans because they had no other choice. They didn’t have to gamble on moves like Harris and Ngakoue being the difference between making and missing the playoffs and ultimately those bets went bust.
At the same time they chose not to gamble with the quarterback or running back positions. It’s very possible those decisions will work out and Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook will lead a highly successful offense to the playoffs next year. It’s worth wondering, however, what Vikings land would be like if they were making the Cousins decision now versus drafting a QB.
In reality, we still don’t have enough hindsight to judge the impact of many of these things. Whether Ezra Cleveland, Jeff Gladney, Cam Dantzler and the rest of the class pans out is two years away at least.
Despite some of the moves that didn’t click, the Vikings have building blocks. Now we look forward to what’s to come in the 2021 offseason…
Subscribers: Leave in the comment section if you agree or disagree with moves…
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I know that the Wilfs' seemingly have a high opinion of Rick Spielman, but I don't see how they can continue to trust him to try and build a championship roster. He's done a fine job at times, i.e. the 2015 draft, but this team feels like it's trending in the wrong direction, and there seems to be very little flexibility to address the glaring weaknesses that the front office has failed to addressed in the past. Personally, I don't want to watch an 8-8 football team for the next 5 years, and I hope that ownership doesn't either.
I agree wholeheartedly that Harris and Ngakoue were terrible moves. The good thing with Harris is that we now know we can cut bait. It sucks we lost 11 million, but it was a 1-year deal. It would have been nice to know if Mettellus can play, but I think they look for a vet to come in next to Harry.
I think the draft was a hit (so far). Especially the top 4 guys. Yes, the three guys not named Jefferson struggled, but I think that playing time will be hugely valuable and Dantzler really came along. I liked some of Wonnum as well, but he has to be rotational obviously. The draft is always a crap shoot so getting 4 guys (one of which is a superstar already) who have potential and significant playing time after just 1 year is big.
Very interested to see how this off-season plays out, particularly free agency and our tricky cap situation. We can only hope that they consider a shift in offensive philosophy as well! Probably wishful thinking!