Getting 'over the hump' in the Vikings' next era of Zimmer/Spielman

Reaching the Super Bowl is the next step for the newly extended coach and GM but what will it take?

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As they walked off the field in Santa Clara, California, after a drubbing at the hands of the 49ers, everyone could sense it was the end of the Minnesota Vikings as we have known them since 2015 when they emerged as a legitimate contender.

They will tell you they aren’t thinking about the future or that their “agents will handle all that stuff” but the age and contract status of numerous staple players of the Mike Zimmer era in Minnesota made it obvious that 2019 was their final shot to do it together — their final run at getting over the hump they nearly cleared as a group in 2017 and returned two years in a row believing they could get past.

In the Michael Jordan documentary The Last Dance, the Chicago Bulls won one final title with all the guys who were around for the entire run like Pippen, Rodman, Kerr and Kukoc. In the Vikings’ version, they walked away thinking about how close they came and why they weren’t able to reach a Super Bowl with so much talent.

“I was on the phone with Coach Parcells for an hour this morning talking about trying to get over the hump,” Mike Zimmer said in his end-of-year press conference. “We’ve been to the conference championship, we’ve been to the divisional game, we’ve been in a wild card game where we lost by a field goal and just try to figure out how do we get over this hump of getting to the next level and eventually winning this thing.”

The offseason went almost exactly as you would have pictured on that sunny, 60-degree day in NorCal when the Vikings’ offense produced just 147 yards of total offense against the mighty San Francisco defense. They cut Xavier Rhodes, who was drafted in 2013 and peaked as arguably the best shadow corner in the league. They cut Linval Joseph, perhaps the most dominant nose tackle in the NFL from 2015-2017. Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander, top draft picks from 2015 and 2016, left in free agency. And Mr. Minneapolis Miracle Stefon Diggs, the last man off the field back in January, was traded away after making it clear to the team he was disgruntled with his role in the offense.

During the Zimmer era, seven of the 11 defensive players who started versus the 49ers made the Pro Bowl at least once. On offense, Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook made it in 2019 and Adam Thielen had twice been before. Diggs never reached a Pro Bowl but was second in the NFL in yards per reception last season. There was enough talent to have a shot every year.

But like the great Kurt Cobain song, there was always something in the way. Whether it was Blair Walsh or Teddy Bridgewater’s injury or Philadelphia’s offensive and defensive line or John DeFilippo’s bad-fit offense or the irony of some aforementioned Pro Bowlers losing their fastball by 2019 when they finally had an offense worthy of contending.

Now the Vikings’ roster has been overhauled. When they return to US Bank Stadium against the Packers in Week 1, there will be somewhere around seven new starters depending on which players win certain camp competitions. But they will have the same coach and the same general manager who built the came-so-close teams of the last six years. Only days before training camp, they were both signed to multi-year contract extensions (sources said Zimmer’s is three years, presumably Spielman’s is too).

What will it take for Zimmer and Spielman to do it again, only this time to get over the hump and reach the Super Bowl with a revamped group?

Passing is king

If we break Zimmer’s tenure into two parts — Part 1 being 2014-2019 and Part 2 starting in 2020 — Part 2 will have a few things that Part 1 did not: A quarterback who has started three years in a row with the Vikings and continuity with the scheme. Part 2 also has Super Bowl experience at offensive coordinator.

When the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins during the 2018 offseason, they expected the bones of the 2017 team that reached the NFC Championship to stay the same and Cousins to be the missing piece that would get them over the top. But much changed between 2017 and 2018. The Vikings faced a tougher schedule, suffered more injuries (and the absence of Everson Griffen for five games), saw a decline in offensive line play and struggled to grasp John DeFilippo’s offensive system, which was much different than Pat Shurmur’s the year before.

And sometimes things simply didn’t go their way in big games. In Green Bay they tied 29-29 when rookie kicker Daniel Carlson missed a potential game-winner and against the Seattle Seahawks, linebacker Bobby Wagner blocked a punt that should have been called back for a penalty.

By 2019, the skeleton of the 2017 team was weathered. Xavier Rhodes went from a top player at his position to playing at a bottom-five level. Linval Joseph no longer penetrated the offensive line like he did back in the day. Everson Griffen’s final six weeks were nowhere close to his prime.

Not that Cousins joined a poor team, just one that drifted from No. 1 in points and yards allowed on defense in 2017 to fourth and 14th in yards and ninth and fifth in points allowed.

The Vikings’ running game also dropped off from second in rushing yards in 2017 to 15th and 13th the last two seasons. Dalvin Cook proved every bit as explosive as expected when he was picked in the second round but struggled with injuries.

One consistent thing you will hear from NFL analysts about Cousins is that he’s only as good as the circumstances around him. The 2019 Vikings had an easy schedule (tied for the most non-playoff teams on the slate) and solid overall team and won 10 games. When things were a little tougher, they won eight. When they faced teams that were better than them, they lost.

Cousins wants to change that.

“One of the focuses for me this season will be to, if we’re not running the ball well and things aren’t going well, to be able to make those plays that can get us right back into a game and win a game,” Cousins said. “I think you saw it in the Denver game, we were down and able to get back in it and win. But being able to do that more and against a team like San Francisco. It’s not an easy task, but those are the challenges when they eventually come up this season, it’s a goal and something you’re working toward to say, hey, in those moments to try to find a way to dig deep and make enough plays to win.”

Anyone who watched the Super Bowl understands that any team that reaches the Super Bowl in 2020 is going to need special plays from their quarterback. Patrick Mahomes’s third-and-15 throw comes to mind. Cousins’s passes to Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph in the playoff win over New Orleans have to come consistently, not just one time at the Superdome.

But when we talk about reaching the Super Bowl, it isn’t just wow plays in big moments. Nothing gives a team a better shot at that than being a consistently successful passing game.

“There are statistics you can look at like success rate that tell you on a particular play whether you gained more yards than anticipated based on down/distance, I think those are important,” Pro Football Focus analyst Kevin Cole said. “If [success rate is high] there are going to be big plays. Certain players will give that to you more often, certain play types will give that to you more often but the key is maintaining [high success rate].”

One of the ways this bears out is in Expected Points Added, which calculates how many points a team would expect to score from a certain field position/down-and-distance and how they perform versus that expectation. Of the last 10 teams to reach the Super Bowl, nine of them have ranked in the top five in passing EPA (and that last eight in a row). Kansas City was No. 1 last year. The 2016 and 2017 Super Bowls matched up the No. 1 vs. No. 2 teams in passing EPA. In 2017 the Vikings ranked fourth. Last year they were ninth.

Defense and running EPA are certainly helpful but do not correlate anywhere near as closely as passing success. The 2016 Falcons and 2017 Patriots were 22nd and 24th in passing EPA on defense, for example.

“When we’re talking pass versus run, it’s about where your upside is,” Cole said. “A successful pass play might be six yards on first down but sometimes you will get 10, sometimes you will get 15, sometimes you’ll get 25 yards whereas a [successful] run play you’re going to get six, seven, eight yards.”

The bottom line is that a consistently efficient passing game with special-play capabilities can overcome a lot.

Kirk Cousins had arguably the best year of his career last season but there is more work to do if the Vikings are going to get over the hump and reach a Super Bowl. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

That’s where Gary Kubiak comes in.

Kubiak joined the Vikings as an offensive advisor in 2019 and worked closely with offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to implement the Kubiak/Shanahan offense, which has roots that extend back to Bill Walsh. Kubiak has been teaching and calling plays for this particular scheme since he took over as Denver’s offensive coordinator in 1995, a year in which the Broncos ranked third in the NFL in total yards and eight in points. He won the Super Bowl as John Elway’s play caller in 1997 and 1998 with offenses that ranked in the top two in points.

Kubiak won it again as a head coach with the Denver Broncos with the only team out of the last 10 that did not have a top five passing offense in EPA (but did still have Peyton Manning).

The man with the ring said it’s all about giving yourself a shot.

“The only way I know how to get over the hump is to keep going back to the hump,” Kubiak said. “You have to be good enough to get there every year and find a way to be playing in January. I used to always used to preach to my teams, ‘Hey, the bottom line, can we get ourselves in? Can we play better than anybody else for one month?’ That’s what this league boils down to, a lot of good coaches, a lot of good players, a very fine line between being really successful and being successful. I think we’re all searching for that but we’ll work toward that and stay committed to each day and try not to get ahead of ourselves."

Kubiak’s sentiment may ring more true in Part 2 of the Zimmer era when there will be seven teams in the playoffs and only one club that gets a bye. Since 2013 no team that played on Wild Card Weekend has reached the Super Bowl.

The key is more likely Kubiak’s ability to elevate quarterback EPA through is zone run/play-action scheme.

Take 2009 for example. With Matt Schaub at the helm, Kubiak’s Texans ranked fifth in passing EPA. The four teams ahead of Houston that year were quarterbacked by Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers.

Last year Cousins thrived the same way ‘09 Schaub did, posting a 129.2 quarterback rating on play-action throws with 9.7 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

That type of performance can get you to the hump and give you a chance to get over it. But Cousins realizes that Kubiak’s scheme can’t hold your hand in tough situations. When teams are trailing, they can’t rely on play-action. It often comes down the straight drop back game. Cousins acknowledged that the Vikings’ passing game needs answers when the scheme hasn’t laid out the perfect blueprint.

“It could be any number of ways to do it…trying to find ways to make those plays and come out on top against a really good team when you know other things aren’t clicking for us,” Cousins said.

Chemistry, culture and practice

The Vikings will need more Adam Thielen’s to develop if they want to be in position to get over the hump to the Super Bowl. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

In an era in which we can break down a passing game’s EPA and look at every inch of a team’s Sunday performance on the All-22 film, words like “culture” and “process” have reached new heights of being eye-rollingly cliché. We want details, real explanations. The not-watered-down version of what actually happened.

But we can do the same type of examination on chemistry and culture that we do on running or passing plays. In the ultimate team sport, what does it take for players to come together to get over the hump?

Two-time WNBA champion with the Minnesota Lynx Devereaux Peters said that behind the Lynx’s dynasty were thousands of hours of highly competitive practices.

“The common thread was that everybody wanted to make each other better from the top down and everybody came in and pushed each other and nothing was personal,” Peters said. “You may get irritated with a teammate, you may get frustrated with them, you may be going at them practice but nobody takes it personal because we all had the same goal and we all wanted to get better at the end of the day so we pushed each other.”

Good teams seem to have players to make each other better. In 2017, for example, Brian Robison took a back seat to Danielle Hunter after spending the previous two seasons helping to teach Hunter the ropes. On the sidelines during a game against Washington, acting backup QB Teddy Bridgewater pointed out a read for Case Keenum, who used it to complete a touchdown pass. Stefon Diggs and Xavier Rhodes got thrown out of practice after battling for weeks in training camp.

“We were willing to do whatever it takes, however it takes, whoever needs to eat, whoever needs to have a full plate we're going to get this meal finished…We had fights all the time but that's good because we're raising the bar,” Super Bowl champion and Minnesota native Ryan Harris said.

Both Peters and Harris added that coaches have to put players in position to build

“At practice coach [Cheryl] Reeve separated us starters and bench but if you come watch practice you're not going to know that we're separated because the bench was going just as hard,” Peters said. “We're trying to beat you, we're no longer teammates, we're trying to beat you. When you have that mentality of pushing each other whether you're playing or not, that's when you're going to win...it's really hard to beat a team like that. It makes practices harder than the games are.”

“After we won the AFC Championship, beating the Patriots twice in the same year and nobody had ever done that before, it would be easy to feel good about yourself and spend time with family,” Harris said. “[Kubiak] said, 'Boys I'm going to give you the next couple days off and when you come back, I need 12 days. I need 12 days from you guys to lock in, we'll win a championship and then you can do whatever the hell you want and I think I might join you in some of it.' …His ability to understand as players that we have all this noise and here's what it's about.”

But as much as chemistry/culture/process and competitive practice can bring a team together toward their common goal, Adam Thielen said it comes down to each person consistently pushing themselves to constantly improve no matter how long they have been in the league.

“I think it just goes back to, your offseason is to look at yourself as an individual. Look at what you can do better, what you can improve on that offseason to help your team win football games,” Thielen said. “Coming back the next season actually an improved, a better player. Each player has different things. For me, it was to focus on my body, my nutrition, getting after it and training to become a better athlete. I really think when everybody does that and focuses on those things, you come back together and you’re already a better team, before you’ve even stepped on the practice field.”

In order to reach their peak at 2017, the Vikings needed huge gains out of numerous players from year to year. Thielen entered the league on a tryout and worked his way up from the practice squad. Diggs wasn’t even active for his first three games. Everson Griffen was a situational rusher when Zimmer arrived. Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr quickly came into their primes as high draft picks and Rhodes made immense gains in his shutdown ability.

The new crop of young players will need to see the same type of leaps forward. With Cousins in place, they have the opportunity to do so around a starting quarterback rather than in spite of the QB position. But finding the next Thielen or Hunter or having a role change turn someone into a superstar like Griffen isn’t easy.

The 2015 draft and reevaluation

Rick Spielman brought in a huge draft class in 2020, increasing his odds at landing the next crop of talent. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

As much as Rick Spielman has led the charge for the Vikings to become one of the most analytical front offices in the NFL, the draft is random as all hell. In 2015 the Vikings hit the lottery by landing a starting corner in the first round with Trae Waynes, Pro Bowlers in the second and third rounds with Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter and a star receiver in the fifth round with Stefon Diggs.

While it’s natural to point to the processes that led to those picks like anticipating that an undersized linebacker would be more valuable in a passing league or that Hunter’s athleticism would eventually translate into sacks or that Diggs’s competitive fire would drive him to outplay his draft status, the following drafts proved that you better be lucky because nobody is good.

During the Zimmer/Spielman era, zero players past the second round have made a Pro Bowl and only Shamar Stephen has even become a starter. They have found quality role players and some like Ifeadi Odenigbo and Bisi Johnson are in line to start this year but it shows that 2015s don’t come along often.

But the Vikings’ 2020 draft is somewhat of a response to that. Spielman traded like he was on Wall Street, acquiring a total of 15 picks, buying as many lottery tickets as he possibly could. Still in 2017 they drafted 10 players in the third round or later and none have become starters yet and Odenigbo got cut twice before he will finally get his chance this year.

"We're always re-analyzing what we do from how we're bringing in players, is there a different way we can look at things, whether that's analytics who have really grown and become a critical part of how we operate,” Spielman said.

The Vikings’ GM said they are always trying to reevaluate every process in the building and pointed to several areas where they have expanded in order to increase their rate of success in player selection and development like health and mental health.

“Everybody is just so driven and determined to try to get that Super Bowl win here,” Spielman said. “We're always trying to, what I call AARs, after-action reviews, which is a military term, on what we did good but what we need to improve on and how we're going to improve moving forward."

Assuming a 2015 draft doesn’t walk through the door, the process will have to be better this time around than it was before to achieve the same results.

That doesn’t mean getting over the hump is impossible or even improbable. While a new era means turnover in different areas of the roster, the next Spielman/Zimmer run starts with a load of talented players in their primes including Kendricks and Hunter and two first-round draft picks Justin Jefferson and Jeff Gladney to build out the foundation.

It will take one year of everything coming together. Injury luck, field goal kicking, the right matchups, the right bounces and on and on. But the Vikings have a chance to weigh the odds in their favor with an explosive passing game, building team chemistry and taking as many swings as they can in the draft.

As the winningest franchise without a ring, it’s bound to happen eventually. Whether that comes in Part 2 of Zimmer/Spielman rests as much in the hands of the Football Gods as it does the head coach and GM.

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