Future of the Vikings, part 2: What will the new GM do with Dalvin Cook?
Star RB is reaching the age of decline and the Vikings appear to have a future weapon
Each year following the NFL season we write a Future of the Vikings series looking at every position, the performances from the previous season and what could be coming next.
Read part 1: Is there a scenario where Kirk Cousins sticks around?
By Matthew Coller
Dalvin Cook is closing in on Running Back Danger Level Code Red.
Not only is he approaching the age in which many of the top running backs from the past started their declines, he’s carried the ball 811 times over the last three seasons and is set to carry the fifth highest cap number among running backs next year. Add that with injuries to his ankle and shoulder that kept him out for four games in 2021 and Cook is checking all the boxes for a running back who is about to take a downturn.
The previous regime loved their Pro Bowl running back, probably to their detriment at times. General manager Rick Spielman signed him to a $63 million contract prior to the 2020 season, making Cook the fourth highest paid player at his position in terms of average annual value. Mike Zimmer repeatedly talked about his appreciation for Cook and pushed (sometimes publicly) his offensive coordinators to run the ball more often. Since 2019, only Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed more times than Cook.
Despite Cook’s solid totals, the price tag and run-more mentality did not add up to an effective overall rushing attack. The Vikings ranked 17th in total rushing yards and 29th in Expected Points Added on the ground.
Cook created explosive runs at a high rate with the third most 10-plus yard carries in the NFL but PFF graded him 19th of 24 RBs with more than 170 carries and his yards after contact sunk from fifth in 2020 to 19th this year. Cook’s receiving impact was also almost non-existent. Sixteen running backs finished with more yards through the air.
These numbers do not have to spell disaster in the future — there are running backs who have bounced back from so-so seasons in the middle of their career — but history is unkind to the aging runner. Since 2015, there are only nine running backs at age 27 or older who have cleared 1,000 rushing yards in a single season. Three of those nine produced less than 4.0 yards per carry in their 1,000-yard season.
Now as the Vikings are set to hire a new general manager and head coach and Cook’s cap hit is about to jump to $12 million, how will they approach Cook and the running back position?
The case for keeping Cook in place is simple: He’s still a good player. With holes to fill all over the roster, removing talent might not be the first thing on the agenda for New GM X. Right now the Vikings have a strong supporting cast for whoever is playing quarterback, which gives them a chance to compete even while other parts of the roster are under construction. Taking Cook out of the mix would not be particularly helpful.
Cutting Cook or moving him in a trade wouldn’t be devastating to the cap but it also wouldn’t be a game changer either. If the Vikings sent Cook packing pre-June 1, they would only open up $2.6 million in cap space. A post-June 1 cut or trade would be more effective, creating $8.9 million. In the post-June 1 scenario, the Vikings would be paying off $3.1 in dead cap each year through 2024.
There might be a more effective usage plan for the next head coach than simply running Cook over and over. The Vikings have rarely used other talented running backs to spell Cook throughout the season. The most carries in a game for backup Alexander Mattison when Cook was fully healthy was six against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Speedster rookie Kene Nwangwu rarely saw the ball in his 11 games, totaling13 carries.
The passing game element has a chance to be better, as well. When Kevin Stefanski was the offensive coordinator in 2019, he caught 53 passes and averaged 9.8 yards per reception.
The counterpoints to a better usage plan are pretty obvious though: New management could think that if his touches need to be reduced, he isn’t worth the price tag. And even in 2019, 394 of Cook’s 519 yards receiving came on throws behind the line of scrimmage. The explanation for variance in his receiving production could simply be that it’s largely reliant on play design and offensive line execution in the screen game.
One year ago, the thought of moving on from Cook would have been met with much consternation from Vikings fans. Now the idea might be viewed more favorably by fans, in part because they have not succeeded in the standings despite his strong play over the last four years but also because it would be viewed as a shrewd move — a sign of a more modern approach that would be used by the cutting-edge teams of the NFL.
The league has clearly gone away from valuing the position. The last running back to be drafted in the top 15 of the NFL draft was Saquon Barkley in 2018. That move has blown up in the Giants’ face. The top paid backs make $15 million per year, a number that has barely increased from when Adrian Peterson signed a six-year, $85 million deal in 2011.
The off-field factor could play into public perception of trading or releasing Cook as well. Earlier this year he was accused by a former girlfriend of physical abuse in a lawsuit.
So the next GM will have their hands full with deciding whether they want to wait and see how things play out with Cook in the next year or move on now in anticipation of the dreaded running back fall-off.
What about the rest of the backfield?
For the third straight year, Mattison played backup to Cook. He was strong in three of his four games as the No. 1 back, picking up 112 yards against Seattle, 113 versus Detroit at home and 90 against Detroit on the road. But against the Rams’ stacked defensive line in Week 16, there wasn’t much Mattison could do as he gained just 41 yards on 13 carries.
That has often been the case with Mattison: While Cook can be a difference maker when circumstances aren’t perfect, Mattison doesn’t have the explosiveness or shiftiness to make something out of nothing. That may be part of the reason he didn’t get more part-time work.
Mattison heads into the final season of his rookie contract as a player likely to remain in a situational or fill-in role. He isn’t likely to be considered the future No. 1 if they move on from Cook.
Rookie Kene Nwangwu would have a chance to shine if given more opportunity, as evidenced by his two kick returns for touchdown. At his pro day, Nwangwu ran a 4.32 40-yard dash and it quickly became clear that he has as much football speed as his 40 time would suggest. It’s not easy to tell whether he’s ready to take on a starting type role based on a handful of carries but he gave reason to believe he can be a weapon on offense going forward. And now that the Vikings will be bringing on a new coach, they can target someone who can use explosive talents to their max, rather than letting someone like Cordarrelle Patterson sit on the bench.
If the Vikings’ new brass doesn’t want to change a thing about its backfield, they will be set with Cook, Mattison and Nwangwu. If they decide to move on from their star starter, they will be in the market for a back in free agency or the middle rounds of the draft.
The most attractive running back on the free agent market is Rashaad Penny, whose career has been limited by injuries but averages 5.6 yards per carry in limited duty. Other experienced starters include Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Sony Michel and James Connor. Only seven free agent running backs played more than 40% of snaps this year (per OverTheCap). Meaning that if they move on, the Vikings will most likely end up with a running back by committee — something they haven’t had in a very, very long time.
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Great article Mathew. General Manager and Head Coach are only two of the big decisions that are going to be made.
Love Cook but it's a business and too many teams can get the same production week to week from 2 or 3 rbs who cumulatively will likely cost less and as a group will probably be more injury resistant than the one man show we've seen .... outside the Peterson era my favorite years at rb were the combo of asiata, McKinnon and Murray