Future of the Vikings at quarterback: All the options explored
A look at all of the Vikings options at QB
By Matthew Coller
Each year since Purple Insider’s existence, we have done a deep dive into the future of the Minnesota Vikings once the offseason begins. Player performances, contracts, options and the big picture will be analyzed for every position. To begin the series, naturally, we start with the quarterback…
The JJ McCarthy problem
When the Vikings drafted McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in 2024, they had a plan. They were aware that he was going to need development before he got under center, so Sam Darnold was signed to be the “bridge” quarterback and buy time for the young player to learn the ropes.
But if you have ever gone on vacation and tried to book flights, car rentals and hotels, you know how rarely the best laid plans go perfectly the way you expected.
After a promising 2024 training camp, McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury. Darnold started, won 14 games but fell apart in a pivotal Week 18 contest and vs. the Rams in the playoffs, so they decided to stick with their original idea of building an expensive roster around the rookie QB contract.
While they tried to convince Daniel Jones to stick around as insurance just in case McCarthy wasn’t ready, the Planes, Trains and Automobiles redux had other plans as Jones went to Indianapolis and won the starting job. After they turned down Aaron Rodgers’ offer to play QB in 2025, it was McCarthy or bust.
McCarthy began the season with a comeback win over Chicago but struggled mightily against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2 and suffered an injury that would keep him out for five weeks. When he returned, there was another promising game against Detroit, followed by three weeks of nightmare performances that included sacks, interceptions and another injury.
After sitting out against an elite defense in Seattle, McCarthy found his stride against two horrendous defensive teams in Washington and Dallas. The progress was immediately halted again with a hand injury that kept him from finishing either Week 17 or Week 18’s games.
The final tally, by any metric, was one of the poorest starts to a career for any QB of the last 15 years.
Via Pro-Football reference, here is a look at quarterbacks through 10 starts since 2010 who were either first or second-rounders but were not drafted in the top five picks, ranked by Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt:
It wouldn’t be the Vikings without a touch of irony that he’s ranked right next to Christian Ponder.
Out of the bottom 10 QBs on the list, only Josh Allen and Geno Smith (many years later) worked out.
There is one QB on this list who compares most closely statistically over his first 10 starts. That’s former Buffalo Bills QB EJ Manuel, who also battled injury in his debut season.
There are a lot of caveats and explanations and flashes and exciting plays. The bottom line is that there is no way the Vikings coaching staff or front office can be sure that McCarthy can take the franchise back to the playoffs in 2026.
That opens up a can of worms.
What do they do now? The Bills followed up the EJ Manuel experience by signing Kyle Orton, who became the starter by Week 5 of the following season and they missed the playoffs and changed coaches after that.
The Vikings have to do better than a high-quality backup. The question is: Do they have to find legitimate competition or do they have to find a starter?
Let’s look at all of the different levels of options…
Extreme long shot big swings
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson
The idea of either Cincinnati or Baltimore trading their superstar quarterbacks is far fetched, even if there is some smoke around them. Burrow had a number of statements (and an Instagram post) suggesting that he’s displeased with his situation but he’s under contract through 2029 so he doesn’t have a ton of leverage to force his way out unless he’s planning to retire.
However, Burrow’s guaranteed dollars run out after next season and his cap hit clears $50 million. That’s a spot that appears set up for an extension or restructuring of the deal. If he’s not willing to do that, things get tricky for the Bengals cap wise after paying Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
The Bengals could also consider it because of Burrow’s injury issues. He missed significant time in 2020, 2023 and this year.
If the Vikings were to make an offer for Burrow, the cap situation and price tag would be difficult to figure out. He would be expensive even if he signed an extension and the Vikings’ entire cap is set up to manage around a rookie QB contract. They would also have to give away significant assets. Though the Vikings have a card to play that few other teams do: A young quarterback.
Trading for Burrow, while tough, is something the Vikings would need to do if there was any shot at pulling it off, no matter the concerns about his health. Since 2021, Burrow has graded No. 1, third and second in his full seasons and second in limited duty this year.
In terms of Lamar Jackson, a move following the firing of Jim Harbaugh is even more unlikely but there have been tensions between Jackson and the team going back to their last contract negotiations with him. They left the door open for other teams to make offers — a shocking move considering his MVP pedigree.
Jackson has been banged up often as well and hasn’t been able to take his team over the top in the postseason.
His situation is more urgent in terms of contract. Jackson needs a new deal as he’s set to carry a $74 million cap hit in 2026. They can restructure and save a chunk of that but it would be much more advantageous for him to sign a new extension.
Are they willing to put another $100+ million fully guaranteed into Jackson? Or do they want to completely start over?
Jackson’s resume doesn’t need any deep analysis. He’s a two-time MVP that easily could have won a third last year. Put him on the 2026 Vikings and they are the No. 1 Super Bowl favorite instantly.
Like with Burrow, moving on from a QB of this caliber usually comes along with huge regrets and fans burning jerseys in the streets, so it has to be a very bad spot for the franchise. If that’s the case, the Vikings have to be in the mix.
Starting-caliber QBs
Kyler Murray
The case for Murray:
In 2024, Murray had a resurgent year in Arizona. He played 17 games, threw for 3,851 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 INTs and a 93.5 passer rating. He added 572 yards rushing and five TDs.
The underlying stats were even higher on Murray than traditional numbers. He ranked 5th in the NFL in success rate, had the 11th highest PFF grade, scored the 8th best big-time throw rate (PFF) and had the 8th best pressure-to-sack ratio. Per TruMedia, Murray ranked 9th in total Expected Points Added, just behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
Those numbers were reminiscent of earlier in his career when he won Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021.
A stat to keep in mind: The Cardinals with Kyler playing over the last three years are 13-17. The Cardinals without Kyler playing over the last two years: 2-19
Murray’s past peak performance combined with the offensive line, weapons and coaching that he would inherit make him the highest upside candidate. In a downfield offense, he did his best work in 2024 on intermediate throws (10-19 yards through the air), grading as the 8th best intermediate passer by PFF and posting a 104.1 passer rating on such throws, which was higher than Sam Darnold’s 2024.
Arm strength, playmaking, experience. Murray is a legitimate top-15 NFL starting quarterback. If the Vikings had his 2024 season in 2025, they would have won the NFC North.
It could be a very similar spot to when Baker Mayfield landed in Tampa Bay. Remember he was let go by the Browns and Panthers and spent time as a Rams backup before finding his way back to QB1.
The case against Murray:
Injuries are a major concern with Murray. Since his breakout 2021 season, he has only played a full season one time. While this year seemed to be more about the Cardinals putting him on ice in order to make sure that they didn’t have to pay his injury guarantees (and they tanked on purpose), it still isn’t inspiring that the QB who was once selected No. 1 overall by Arizona is now on his way out.
There have long been discussions about his leadership and personality. It was telling when the Cards leaked out that part of his contract included studying film. Lots of players play video games, so the criticisms over him being a gamer are silly but the fact that people inside the building wanted it known that he spends lots of time gaming is also eyebrow-raising.
If we put aside the whispers, there’s a few fundamental issues that have kept Murray from being an elite QB. The most glaring are consistency and the impact of his height.
Here’s Murray’s 2021 and 2024 seasons by ESPN’s 1-100 metric QBR, game by game:
To put it into more perspective, Murray was the 6th highest graded PFF passer from Weeks 1-8 in 2024. He was 18th (out of 40) from Weeks 9-17.
The Kyler Coaster is real. It’s not unique among mid-pack QBs, if you recall Kirktober and such but it does separate the top quarterbacks from the guys who are available.
In terms of his height, the Murray concern has always been attacking the middle of the field. He was actually very good in that area in 2024, hitting 30-for-41 passes with a 123.3 QB rating on intermediate throws over the middle.
Where he has been poor since 2021 is deep passing. He has gone 12-for-45, 8-for-26, 19-for-55 and 6-for-16 over the last four seasons on throws that travel 20+ yards through the air. Maybe that’s a receiver stat but it’s concerning for an offense that loves to “hunt explosives.”
There’s also the matter of playing with “rhythm and timing.” A major part of Murray’s success is his scrambling but it also leads to him playing out of structure way more often than Kevin O’Connell has ever had as his QB.
Is Murray a good idea for the Vikings?
There are parts of his past performance that are very enticing. Just last year he scored 41 points on the Rams, went toe-to-toe in a shootout with Josh Allen, had a game where he completed 92% of his passes and beat San Francisco twice. The Vikings would be betting on their system, culture and supporting cast to get him back to 2021 form.
Of course, if they were to sign Murray, that means they see McCarthy as a backup. It would be a recreation of the Daniel Jones/Anthony Richardson situation in Indy. There couldn’t really be a legitimate competition.
Geno Smith
The case for Smith:
From 2022-2024, the veteran big-armed QB was a volatile but solid starter for Seattle. He led them to a 27-22 record during that span with 71 touchdowns, 35 INT and a 95.5 passer rating. By PFF’s metrics, he finished 9th, 14th and 9th in his three seasons and finished in the top seven in big-time throws each year.
When throwing the ball more than 20 yards in the air, Smith scored the No. 1 PFF grade in 2022, 7th in 2023 and 4th in 2024. Simply put: There aren’t many QBs in the NFL with the arm talent of Smith to find targets downfield.
That sounds like a pretty good fit for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. In 2024, Jefferson caught 15 of 26 throws from Sam Darnold that traveled over 20 yards and Addison grabbed 12 of 28. Could he be like 1999 Jeff George and give them a legitimate chance because of his arm talent and receivers?
Smith has also been through everything that the NFL has to offer. He’s struggled as a young QB, spent years as a backup, taken a team to the playoffs as a starter and taken his lumps as a starter. That type of experience might be more along the lines of what the 2026 Vikings need in the huddle rather than a kid who is hoping to take the next step.
But acquiring Smith wouldn’t have to lock him into being QB1. Because he struggled so much with the Raiders, there could easily be an open competition in training camp and if McCarthy won, then having Smith as a backup would be an upgrade from Carson Wentz.
The case against Geno Smith
To paraphrase Mike Zimmer: Did you see his season?
Smith’s stats from 2025 will make your eyes bleed. He finished 35th out of 36 in Expected Points Added, 34th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, 37th of 45 by PFF grade, he was sacked 55 times and had the second worst pressure-to-sack rate only behind the Jets Brady Cook.
There are a lot of explanations for his play. The Raiders traded his best receiver. They hired a college offensive coordinator who hasn’t had success in the NFL in a decade. They hired a 76-year-old head coach. They had the 28th ranked offensive line by PFF. They were dead last in rushing yards per attempt.
Still, it’s tough to justify a performance like that. Considering that most QBs do not play until age 40, he may not be the same guy that he was three years ago, especially with all the hits he has accrued.
It has to be asked: If he wins the job, what’s the ceiling? An entertaining season that’s not good enough?
While that does seem like an upgrade from the present, pasting McCarthy to the bench in favor of a 36-year-old QB whose ceiling is a very flawed 8-10 wins doesn’t seem ideal.
Daniel Jones
The case for Daniel Jones:
Turns out Jones was who Kevin O’Connell thought he was. After several brutal seasons with the Giants that included a 3-13 stretch and several injuries, Jones remerged with the Colts as a legitimate starting quarterback.
Before suffering an Achilles injury, Jones completed 68% of his passes in Indy with 8.1 yards per attempt, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He finished the season top 10 in passer rating and seventh in Expected Points Added despite missing the final four games of the season.
Jones struggled in previous years in terms of deep passing but in 2025 he completed 17-of-38 throws beyond 20 yards and hit 60% of his intermediate passes as well.
While he might not be the type of QB that can elevate an awful franchise like the Giants, Jones has proven that in the two seasons where he was given relative competency around him, he can win games. In 2022, he took the Giants to the postseason with the 15th best passer rating and 17th ranked PFF grade despite his top receiver that year being Richie James.
At 28 years old, he should be able to bounce back from his injury.
The case against Daniel Jones:
This year may have been a bit of smoke and mirrors because Jonathan Taylor was setting a historic pace in the backfield and Jones had the luxury of facing Miami, Tennessee twice, Arizona and Las Vegas in five of his first eight starts as a Colt. He did have good games against Denver and Houston but from Weeks 9-14, Jones ranked 37th of 38 by PFF grade and had the third highest turnover-worthy play rate.
The 2025 season also looks like a pretty extreme outlier compared to other seasons. Here’s Pro-Football Ref’s adjusted passing numbers on a 1-100 scale to factor for the league averages. This year is the only season where Jones has been above average in any metric outside of completion percentage and INT%.
Of course, this stat sheet isn’t wildly different from Sam Darnold’s rapid ascent after only showing flashes early in his career. But Jones is coming off an Achilles injury and his ceiling wasn’t as high as Darnold’s in 2024.
Jones is another QB that would have to be anointed as the starter as soon as he’s acquired. It was clear that he signed with the Colts rather than staying in Minnesota because his chances to beat out Anthony Richardson were higher than McCarthy. Why leave Indy for somewhere that he would need to win a camp competition?
If the real Jones is the one that played for the Colts this year, he could certainly get the Vikings to the postseason and possibly win a playoff game. However, it doesn’t appear realistic that he would sign back in Minnesota and his injury and regression chances make him a risky pick for the 2026 starter.
Kirk Cousins
The case for Kirk Cousins:
There is no better way to describe the situation the Vikings have put themselves in than including Cousins on this list.
The Falcons started the year with their 2024 draft pick Michael Penix Jr. at the helm but he suffered a knee injury, leaving Cousins to take his place. In 289 drop backs, Cousins performed pretty well.
By PFF, he ranked as the 14th best QB in the NFL with at least 150 drop-backs, completing 62% of his passes with 6.4 yards per attempt and an 84.8 QB rating. After Cousins took over, the Falcons scored the 13th most points in the NFL.
Most importantly, he looked much more mobile than in 2024, when he was coming off Achilles surgery. Cousins was able to execute play-actions excellently, hitting 44-of-65 play-action passes at 9.3 YPA and a 102.5 QB rating.
If the Vikings brought him back, they would have a very clear idea of what Cousins would be within the offense. He can execute the pre-snap stuff that O’Connell designs, get the ball to Justin Jefferson and give his team a chance to win. Under KOC, he went 17-8.
The cost for Cousins this time around would also not be anywhere near the price to keep him from 2018-2023.
The case against Kirk Cousins:
When compared to McCarthy’s numbers, certainly Cousins looks pretty solid but not when matched up against top quarterbacks. He finished 27th in Expected Points Added at -5.7 points (per TruMedia), which is basically replacement-level play.
Another concerning stat is that the Falcons dialed up 20% of Cousins passes behind the line of scrimmage and he gained 6.5 YPA on those throws, likely due to Bijan Robinson being Bijan Robinson.
When he was asked to push the ball beyond 20 yards downfield, Cousins went 9-for-32. He also only completed 48% of intermediate throws, which was 35th out of 41 by PFF.
The idea that he could drop back into Minnesota and run O’Connell’s offense like it was 2023 again is questionable at best. Same goes for him taking them any farther than the first round of the playoffs. Signing Cousins would be the ultimate sign of desperation.
It would also mean that they are super, duper done with McCarthy. At least with other QBs like Murray or Geno Smith, there might be a ceiling where it all clicks and looks like 2024 Sam Darnold but that’s not possible for Cousins post-injury. And Cousins isn’t coming back to Minnesota if there is any chance he’s the backup. He would have to be guaranteed a QB1 spot.
We would enter time-is-a-flat-circle territory, looking exactly like 2021 again with the team doing shortsighted things to survive.
Aaron Rodgers
The case for Aaron Rodgers:
It’s basically the same exact case as for Kirk Cousins.
He performed serviceably for a team that was super desperate to get back to the postseason, throwing for 3,322 yards at 6.7 YPA with 24 TD and 7 INT and a 94.8 QB rating.
The future HOF’er was at his best when pushing the ball downfield, completing 21-of-52 with 16 big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays. His short passing was also efficient with a 75% completion percentage on passes between 0-9 yards.
He was able to remain healthy for the entire season and lead an offense that finished 26th in rushing yards to the 15th best scoring mark.
If he still has enough in the tank to take a mediocre group of weapons to the postseason, than it’s very possible he could get the Vikings into the postseason on sheer arm talent alone.
The case against Aaron Rodgers:
Rodgers’ performance would have easily put the Vikings in the playoffs but they are not good numbers. Rodgers was worth +5.7 points of EPA this year, which is basically replacement level. He graded as the 29th best QB and 23% of his throws were behind the line of scrimmage.
The 42-year-old had wild ups and downs with three straight games under a 50 PFF grade and then three weeks vs. Baltimore, Miami and Detroit where he looked like it was 2021 again.
How can anyone say with any degree of certainty that he will be able to play with enough consistency for the Vikings to be a contender with him at the helm. Plus, even Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre reached a point where he could no longer execute an above average offense. It’s hard to believe Rodgers can keep the clock from striking midnight on him too.
Other ancillary issues exist too. He seems to have decided on his own offense in Pittsburgh at times. Is that going to work with O’Connell?
A relatively low ceiling and low floor while making no progress and taking the risk that the dramatic version of Rodgers returns makes it a tough match.
Malik Willis
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