Friday(ish) Mailbag: What is going on?
The Vikings have lost back to back games and fans are wondering if this is a sign of things to come
By Matthew Coller
Happy weekend, folks. I figured it made sense to still do a mailbag because there are a LOT of questions following the Vikings’ loss to the Rams. So let’s dive in….
CJ M…. Can the Rams game count as our “Letdown Game?”
It definitely could be. It’s funny, in the lead up to the game we talked about how it was a really difficult turnaround for the Vikings after playing the Lions and how Thursday night football games in general are not a good representation of a team and then when the Vikings lost we went bananas. There was guaranteed to be a letdown game at some point. That’s why regular listeners to the podcast know that it’s mandatory when we pick the schedule every week that there be a shocking loss.
The other thing is: How many wins do the Rams have if they had Nacua and Kupp all year? They definitely aren’t 3-4. They might be 5-2 with those guys.
That’s not to excuse what happened or downplay the issues. It’s just that when you see so many problems in two days, it feels like the team is collapsing into the ocean. It’s always that way when a team loses back to back games. We’ll see how they come out of it.
Scott M…. Why doesn't the NFL consider hiring professional, full time referees?
I’ve never thought that was the biggest problem. It’s not that they don’t know the rules, it’s that every crew has its own interpretation of the rules and there’s too much going on and it’s too fast for any ref crew to watch. The solution is so blatantly obvious that I feel like I’m taking crazy pills every time I talk about it. There needs to be a video referee who the refs on the field can call upon any time there is a question with a call. The video refs should automatically review 15-yard penalties and pass interferences and be allowed to buzz down to the field when there is an unnoticed personal foul and they should have 30 seconds to do it. They’ll never get everything right but folks at home shouldn’t be able to ref the game insanely better than the field.
Biggest M… I’ve noticed a trend with our defense. After our offense has long drives, our defense plays really well, often forcing three and outs. However, when our offense has a short drive, we can’t get any stops on the ensuing defensive sequence. Am I imagining things or have you noticed it too? It could be a momentum thing or just fatigue, but then it should be the same for every team. Curious to hear your thoughts.
I don’t think you’re imagining things. The differential in actual plays is mind blowing. The Vikings offense has run 397 plays and the defense has been on the field for 465 plays. That’s an entire game’s worth more time on defense.
The offense has been boom or bust all year. They rank 5th in points scored and only 15th on percentage of drives in which they have produced points. Here’s a really funny stat from the past that demonstrates how the play style / pace of an offense can show itself. The 2015 Vikings were only 16th in points but 7th in scoring percentage. That team ran all the time, ranked 5th in average time per drive. The current squad is 28th in average time per drive.
It can’t continue like this if they’re going to go anywhere. Harrison Smith and Stephon Gilmore are both top 20 in total snaps at their position and Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard are top 3 in snaps. Harrison Phillips is 13th among DTs. They are getting worn down.
Rob…. Second game in a row with dumb procedural penalties and blitzes not getting home. Is this an aberration or sign of things to come?
It doesn’t seem to be an aberration. In 2022, the No. 1 team in the NFL in delay of game penalties was the Vikings. In 2023 the No. 1 team in the NFL in delay of game penalties was…. the Vikings. When KOC says the coaches have to look in the mirror, I think this is one of the things he really has to ask himself. That’s several different QBs running the operation and the same problem. Are they not getting the plays in? Are the plays too complicated? They are giving away yardage and blowing timeouts over this almost every week. It has to get fixed.
Thomas S… What is your assessment of Harrison Smith’s play through 7 games?
I’d go with: It’s been OK. He’s 27th of 67 on PFF. Pretty much in the same place that he’s been the last few years. The splash plays haven’t been there in the same way as the past. He only has four QB pressures on 26 rushes. He’s also the seventh most targeted safety this year. That could also be because they’re playing zone coverages so much that he can’t roam around and let the corners play man coverage like they used to do with Waynes and Rhodes. I’d like to see Theo Jackson be used to give him some series off.
Brian_H…. It may be my PurpleTSD speaking, but are the Vikings frauds? Issues that were easy to overlook during the 5-0 start - Sam Darnold's lack of an internal clock, offense disappearing for long stretches after a quick start, defense giving up big plays in the second half, procedural penalties, etc.- have now cost them two in a row.
I never liked the term “frauds” even when they were winning a lot of games in bizarre ways in 2022. What you’re looking for is probably: Are they really that good? Are they going to fall apart?
They are top 10 in points for and points against despite (by Pro-Football Ref) having the third toughest schedule in the league so far. Their two losses are by a grand total of 12 points. One of those was to arguably the best team in the NFL.
After they went 5-0, we all raised the bar so high that we thought they would just smash any team that wasn’t as good as they are. But with Stafford getting his two top receivers back, the Rams are probably a similar strength to the Vikings. We can reasonably look at this team and say that if they play like the last two weeks then they’ll fall off but also they’re not playing another QB as good as Goff or Stafford until Kirk in December (and he’s definitely not as good as they are).
With all that’s going wrong, they are still in the driver’s seat to win double digit games and be in the playoffs. All of the “season’s over” talk was an overreaction. If they lose two of the next tree games or something, then I’ll change my mind.
Eldon… It seems like the Vikings defense has struggled lately especially with Cashman out, is this a sign of more trouble to come? Or is it more that Love, Goff and Stafford are just really good against the blitz? Also it felt like in the rams game KOC was hesitant to let Darnold go for it on a couple 4th downs , is this bad news going forward or is this just a mid season lull that the Vikings can fix?
You can’t say enough times how big a factor Cashman being out was. Absolutely massive. He’s the head of the snake. He’s the extension of Flores out there with the play calls and there’s no replacing his size/speed combination. Without him they are way less experienced and way smaller. He should be back against the Colts. If he remains healthy after that and can work through the turf toe, we should see the defense start to bend QBs’ minds again.
I had the same thought about the fourth downs. Jeremiah Sirles said on the podcast last week that he felt like KOC has one foot in and one foot out of being aggressive. That sums up how I’ve viewed it too. In a game like that, he probably needed to go for a couple of the fourth downs with the way the defense was struggling.
Rob… How’s the beach?
Not great. I went there and it was really misty and hazy. I couldn’t even see the water from the road. Bad break.
Paul… Help me understand something. Our tackles are the strength of the O line (when Darrisaw is healthy) and we went out and signed a big time blocking tight end, yet a designed off-tackle running attack seems almost non-existent and the last jet sweep we ran was the fourth down bad spot in Lambeau.
Well, we’ve got numbers for this. Out of 104 carries, 50 have been behind or outside the tackles per PFF. They average 5.2 yards per attempt on those runs. That seems about right. They could definitely use the jet sweep thing more.
Here’s the problem: When you only have 50 plays in a game, it feels like they didn’t do much of anything.
My issue regarding the run game is entirely based on Jones’s workload. He just can’t be playing 46 snaps days after grinding out that game against the Lions in which he also played just about every snap. They badly need Cam Akers ready to help take the load off him. It’s become very clear there is no trust for Ty Chandler.
Brad L…. The wrong kind of complimentary football (dumb penalties all around). How might they clean that up?
I don’t have a good answer to that. It just has to stop. They are top five in penalties and if that continues then they’re going to have a very tough time working through this downswing.
Matt R… Defense lack of depth was exposed against the Rams. Ivan Pace got attacked in the run and pass all night and mostly lost. He and Mettellus were overmatched as LBs. Stephon Gilmore was attacked in the air and really doesn't seem interested in tackling these days. If they won't rotate guys in the secondary, we're going to see more of this against experienced QBs.
No disagreement here. Asking every good player to play a million snaps every week is going to result in them getting run down. We saw that last year. It doesn’t seem like something that Flores wants to do outside of mixing in pass rushers.
How crazy is this: Outside of the starting corners and safeties, Theo Jackson has played 20 snaps (which is shocking to me), Jay Ward has played 13, Akayleb Evans 3, Bobby McCain 3, Fabian Moreau 2. Not that they’re difference makers but it’s not like these guys are completely helpless either. Last year there were times that Evans was good and McCain and Moreau have played a lot during their careers.
Mike T… After watching KO for 3 years now, and seeing the Tweet about scripted (the first 15) vs. non scripted play statistics, I'm convinced that, while KO is an excellent "schemer" and okay designer, he's not great with play calling in the moment or under pressure in the "gotta have it" moments. There are numerous examples. People are blaming Darnold for this, but it happened with Cousins too. Would having the OC call plays be better down the road?
The tweet you’re talking about with the first 15 plays vs. the rest of the game has a pretty serious issue: The Vikings were winning by 3 scores for a lot of the first five games of the year, so they weren’t going to be as explosive or efficient when up by that much. Also sample size is a problem there.
There’s definitely some type of critique to be had about the play calling — whether it’s putting teams away or having the right feel for when to be aggressive and that type of thing — but it’s really hard to put a finger on.
I think it’s connected to the downfield passing philosophy. Here’s some interesting stats…
Since KOC took over in 2022, the Vikings rank 10th in the NFL in yards per play but they are No. 1 in turnovers. They have the third fewest first downs running over the last three years and 17th on third down. They are second to last in yards after catch per reception. If you always have to complete a long pass to succeed on a drive, then you’re going to have inconsistency. Just like relying on home runs or three-pointers.
Ben… Do you think fans and some media are overreacting to the last 2 games?? They are still 5-2 with wins over the Texans and 49ers ( that were healthy) that has to mean something right??
Yes and no. There are a lot of things that happened vs. the Rams that feel like they could continue to be problematic. Teams slowing down the blitzes and taking advantage of the coverage limitations, the ups and downs offensively, the older players getting worn down etc.
Still, the overall numbers on this team are strong. Heading into this weekend’s games the only NFC team with a better point differential is Washington. In three weeks, we could very well be talking about an 8-2 team that is in great position to still compete neck and neck down the stretch for the NFC North with the Lions. We do need to keep perspective on that.
The next three weeks will tell us a lot. That Rams team was better than their record but the Colts, Jags, Titans are not good. If there’s another letdown game, then we can probably start hovering over the panic button. Otherwise, there was way too much outrage relative to their actual position in the playoff race.
Ford42-P…. What is up with Dallas Turner? 4 tackles and 1 sack through 6 games in which he lately rarely played. They gave up pretty much 2 first round picks for him. He is young and has to grow for sure but he is undeniably very talented so why not play him? 4 pressures against the Rams with Pat Jones playing over 40 snaps? Something feels wrong there.
That’s an odd situation because four days ago I was completely buying that he’s buried behind two great edge rushers and it’s hard to concoct ways to get him on the field. But if there was ever a game to use him a lot, it would have been with the team playing on four days rest. Jones is a good rotational piece but he shouldn’t be playing 10x as much as Turner. Thing is, I just haven’t seen Turner get many opportunities to play a pure edge rushing role. We’ll see how it develops as we go forward but if this trend continues, it’s a problem.
Arin J… Does the play of the defense and offense give pause to Kwesi or is it time to push the gas and get additional help for the d line, corners, o line would be my top 3.
I’m not sure how much it changes. It always seemed unlikely that they would go absolutely crazy with a trade unless there was a superstar in his prime available. That usually doesn’t happen. They could definitely use those two fifth-round picks to add to the roster. This is Year 6 of waiting for interior pass rushers since Sheldon Richardson was good back in 2018. They don’t trust any corners outside the starters. And the left tackle is out for the season. So, yeah, there’s additions they could make without the “all in” approach.
Kyle S…. How much will it hurt the Vikings if Christian Darrisaw is out, either short term or long term? Can they withstand it, or are they in big trouble?
It hurts a lot. There’s no downplaying that one. Left tackle so valuable. They can leave Darrisaw on an island against any of the best rushers in the NFL and be fine. Now they have to think about ways to help the left tackle. That’s tough because they have been trying to help the right guard and center in pass pro. There’s a domino effect to losing him because it’s hard to have multiple weak points.
That said, they got through the toughest part of the schedule of D-lines. The Colts are 17th in pressure percentage and they are the highest ranked team outside the NFC North and Seattle that the Vikings play for the entire rest of the year.
It doesn’t end the season. It does make the road harder.
Eric… No more sample size needed for Darnold correct? Tier 10-15, will make a couple wow throws offset with a couple D’OH! moments each game.
Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence have been in the league for years and people still debate whether they’re any good or not. I don’t believe that we can call it now with Darnold. He’s had a 100+ QB rating in six out of seven games, which might be tough to sustain. We do have a good feel for what he’s going to be as the Vikings QB, yes, but does that balance of wow throws to D’OH! moments stay where it is now? Does it get better with Hockenson back? Does it get worse as teams figure out more about him?
When you look at the opposing defense schedule going forward, he has a good chance to continue going along pretty well and finish as a top 10ish QB. It’s hard to commit to that because there’s so long to go. It’s wild to think about how we have more than half the season remaining.
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