Friday(ish) Mailbag: NFC North intrigue

An early mailbag has lots of North talk (and JJ McCarthy projections)

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Thursday, folks. Hopefully you all have the holiday weekend off… so I figured I’d get the mailbag out a day early. Let’s dive in!

@HollandJohnD Questions: (A) Which team finishes in last place in the NFC North? (B) Which NFC North QB quarterback finishes the season with the lowest QB rating? You choose the answer format (e.g., pie chart or straight up prediction).

A) Right now I’ll still say the Bears until they prove it. The Packers could definitely hit some speedbumps but we know Jordan Love can play and Matt LaFleur can coach. We don’t know that for sure about Ben Johnson or Caleb Williams.

B) The QB rating thing is interesting because Ben Johnson really helped Jared Goff by building the passing game from the run/play-action, which might improve Williams’s downfield stuff rather than having him throw screens all the time like the Bears did last year. Knowing that KOC pushing the ball downfield does result in turnover-worthy plays could end up with McCarthy throwing some picks that bring down his rating. Hm. I guess I’d have to go with Goff, Love, McCarthy, Williams right now just because the first two have bigger samples that show they can put together 95+ rating seasons.

@BrianSchiel Are the Bengals: cheap, odd or just lacking the deep pockets of other ownership?

They are a relic, basically. Many teams around the NFL used to be cheap and a lot of owners made their entire family’s money based on the football team but that’s not often the case these days. The Bengals are still one of those teams so they cut corners on their facilities, guaranteed dollars and everywhere else they can find. It’s funny, the Chiefs have ranked really low on the ownership rankings and facilities too because they are the same way, it’s just that it doesn’t matter because of Mahomes. I was actually listening to Zach Lowe’s podcast the other day and he was talking about how even the Los Angeles Lakers’ owners cut corners for the same reasons. The freaking Lakers.

It’s time for these owners to toss out how they’ve always done things because the revenue is going to be there.

@CJMcAulay In line with your countdown of most interesting Vikings, what’s your top-10 across the NFC North this season?

Well, my list is the most interesting Vikings in training camp. If I was doing that for the entire season in the NFC North outside of the Vikings, I’d go:

1) Caleb Williams 2) Jordan Love 3) Matthew Golden 4) Rome Odunze 5) Jameson Williams 6) Terrion Arnold 7) Edgerrin Cooper 8) Grady Jarrett 9) Whoever Plays Center For the Lions 10) Aidan Hutchinson

There’s probably 50 different ways you can go with the word “interesting” but I think each one of those guys has a unique storyline.

@luke39250447 What are some of the other top teams’ “Vikings cornerback room”? I feel like we get too low on ourselves sometimes because we forget other teams have big question marks as well.

Every team has something. I’m sure folks are going to be asking if the Eagles did enough to replace the talent they lost on the D-line. Losing Milton Williams and Josh Sweat is a lot of production. The Bills are being questioned (rightfully) about not adding a true top wide receiver. Kansas City’s offensive line is stuff suspect. I think the same goes for the Ravens, even though Lamar usually just makes up for it. Did Washington really do enough on defense? Detroit’s O-line is suddenly questionable. Certainly every team has these.

Sometimes question marks can just mean “we don’t know” rather than “sucks.” There is a wide range of outcomes with this Vikings secondary but they certainly have the recent sample size from last year to suggest they can make the most of what they have.

@WriterChurchill Since Darnold didn't really utilize Hockenson, do you see him using Kupp more or less?

I remember when Klint Kubiak was the OC for the Vikings, KJ Osborn had a big emergence because that team used screens/swings and short stuff really effectively. If Darnold sticks to their plan, he should be able to find Kupp a lot. Darnold still did throw to Hockenson 41 times in 10 games, which translates to 70 catches per year. And some of those games were with Hock only playing half the snaps. The notable thing about Darnold and underneath stuff last year is that he was one of the best in the league in efficiency in short passes, he just didn’t throw them that often because he was hitting deep shots. I think he can do it.

@headcoach21 Who’s your top 5 bozo NFL coaches of all time

Oof, all-time is tough. The worst since I started covering the Vikings in 2016 were Matt Patricia, Adam Gase, Urban Meyer, Josh McDaniels and Nate Hackett.

There are plenty of others who I’ve thought were way in over their head. Brandon Staley, Arthur Smith, David Culley/Lovie Smith, possibly the guy coaching the Titans right now.

@skiyouMeeko Hi Matthew Considering JJ is more willing to throw intermediate’s than Darnold; Cousins, is it crazy to predict Hockenson exceeds his 2023 numbers of 95/960/5?

Crazy? No. A little on the high side? Probably. I do think that McCarthy is going to use Hockenson a ton because he’s the perfect type of player for a young QB to lean on. But I’m not sure anyone’s going to love Hock as much as Cousins did. 95 catches is the high end. If I’m trying to get the number as close as possible, I’d probably go with something like 84.

@nurple_purp I loved the “welcome to the NFL” moment you shared, any other fun or stand out stories from your years as a beat writer?

The moment that I really realized how wild covering the NFL can be is when I flew to Chicago for the 5-1 Vikings to face off with a terrible Bears team and the Vikings completely collapsed, Mike Zimmer’s eye popped and Norv Turner quit the next day. I had previously covered baseball and hockey more than football and the insane swing of the season on two weeks was really mind blowing. I remember getting to the end of that 2016 season and thinking that I was more tired than I had ever been in my life.

@Skol_Doc From a fantasy football perspective, Can you go through Mike clays projections and decide over/under for various statistics regarding JJ/JJ/JA/TJ?

I think Clay has bumped up his McCarthy projection a bit to 4,118 yards and 29 touchdowns. Whew. That’s a really good projection, right around where I have him but I’ll go slightly under on those and under on Clay’s 16 INTs and under 44 sacks too.

I’ll also go under 116 catches for Justin Jefferson. I might say like 97. I’d go slightly under for Addison’s 76 receptions if he gets suspended. I’m going way, way over Jalen Nailor’s 14 receptions. Slightly over Hockenson 81 catches. I’ll go over 3.5 sacks for Dallas Turner as well.

@EEHavenwood Is it surprising that Wes Phillips got extended? If McCarthy has a big year it seems like McCown is due for a big promotion as either OC here or possibly even HC elsewhere. I’m surprised that the Vikings seem willing to let him leave.

Nah. Wes is way more valuable than people on the outside know because he doesn’t get a lot of shine. He’s KOC’s right-hand man when it comes to game-planning and installing the offense. The head coach isn’t just sitting in his office devising a gameplan all day, he has to run the whole operation, so Phillips oversees that process, which involves all the position coaches as well. I would guess that McCown does get an OC or HC job at some point soon, yes, but I don’t think folks fully understand all that Wes does for KOC.

@Leegaro77 When will analysis and reporters start using % of cap and projected contract lifetime % of cap instead of $$ when talking new contracts. It seems an unnecessary extra step to relate cost impact

Cap stuff is tricky, dawg. When you’re writing or talking about a player’s contract, it can be tough to cover all the potential avenues for a player’s deal. If a guy has a five-year contract, then it’s pretty likely that it’s getting redone after three years… is it getting restructured or extended? Can they convert bonus into base salary? How much is the cap going up the following year and will the deal look better then?

Usually reporters are trying to convey something in the most understandable way possible. Sometimes that means leaving out some of the muddy details. I barely passed Accounting 201, so this stuff ain’t easy.

Josh… Which QB in the NFC North has the most to prove this upcoming season?

It’s probably Jordan Love. After this year his cap hits start to get restrictively expensive and if he’s still the 12th-15th best quarterback in the league and with three years under his belt there won’t be many arguments for him still developing. Goff has already proven to be a great quarterback and McCarthy and Williams will still be getting leeway as young QBs. Love is a paid veteran QB. He has to win or the heat gets turned up.

Arin J… Hi Matthew, great shows as always l, loved the Culpepper discussion. Is there a reason, that Brian Flores and The front office have not found a large d tackle to take on multiple blocks? Thinking Jerry Ball, Linval Joseph, etc. is it the scheme does not need it or they haven't found one?