Friday mailbag: Will the Vikings defense keep bending?

The Vikings face off with the Saints on Sunday and fans have questions about how the defense will hold up and whether Justin Jefferson will get rolling

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By Matthew Coller

Top of the morning, everyone! Is that what they say in England? Well probably not so let’s just talk about football…

@ramseykincannon give me the deep dive in the pros and cons of the new travel schedule!!!

The biggest thing seems to be that they wanted to have everyone ready to come back and play the following week against Chicago. So the idea is to avoid letting their body clocks adjust. If they had a bye week they might have gone over on Monday. The drawback is having to get there Friday AM local time and then practice that afternoon. I would guess that guys are going to be really tired at that point and maybe struggle to get through the practice and meetings. It’s not ideal any way that teams have tried it.

@ACouch88 Am i alone in thinking Bradbury has been a pleasant surprise?

Not alone at all. Kevin O’Connell’s comments midway through camp seemed to suggest they wanted competition at center but that never materialized and he’s started off the season with one of his best three-game stretches by the PFF numbers. It’s really amazing how small the margins are along the offensive line. The difference between ranking 27th and 10th is a handful of plays per game. Maybe being out of the shotgun a little more has helped him get his anchor in pass blocking. I’ll be interested to see how his play progresses throughout the season.

@Cephix86 What would this team look like now if we hadn’t been one of the teams to pass on Lamar Jackson?

It’s hard to say exactly when he would have become the starter because Cousins had his best year in 2019 but they likely wouldn’t have extended Cousins if they knew Jackson was going to be really good. If he starts in 2021, they would have been able to spent a lot more money in free agency and they’re an instant Super Bowl contender that year and this year. He likely saves Zimmer/Spielman’s jobs and Gary Kubiak might have stuck around to coach him. Jefferson would be the best receiver of his life by far and the franchise would be in its winning window for at least a few years until he got to be expensive…but even then, Jackson is a guy who transcends that. So, yeah, I’m pretty sure they wish there were do-overs. It’s hard to blame them for not drafting Jackson but it also wasn’t impossible to see coming based on his talent.

Jeff via email questions for the mailbag... 1. Is our OL unit reaching the lofty levels of average to mediocre? I mean clearly it is not an elite unit (Like Philly or the Lions) but it does seem to have risen beyond the level of pathetic dumpster fire. Also (I understand Philly/Detroit) have excellent lines but wouldn`t it make sense to blitz every now and then just to keep offenses honest?

Yes, I think the line is getting there. Christian Darrisaw changes the formula. When they had Riley Reiff, he was pretty solid but maybe the 15th-20th best tackle at any time. Darrisaw has the potential to be top 5-10. They’ll still need better from the guards to be anything better than average. As far as the blitzing, I get it. But I can see their theory: When you blitz, you leave someone without help. If these corners are out there without help, it could be a recipe for giving up explosive plays. Everything is a give and take when they have weaknesses to cover up.

@JohnSchlichtma4 Looking back at the draft, do you like the Lions trade? I don’t. Sure wish we had drafted Williams.

Well, since that was the outcome that Purple Insider officially advocated before the draft, it’s hard for me to disagree. I’d say that even if Cine was in there playing great. We have repeatedly watched safeties develop from special teams and become good players or guys get signed for very reasonable prices in free agency. That’s why it isn’t considered a premium position. You can never have too many great receivers and they’re very expensive in free agency (see: Christian Kirk). I still think Adam Thielen will have a good season and KJ Osborn can play but in the five-year plan Williams had the potential to be more valuable. As an side, I wouldn’t declare Cine a bust after three weeks. It can take time for a guy’s mind to catch up to his athleticism.

@petermtowey Why will Kirk not throw to someone who isn’t wide open???

A few things are probably at play there. First, he made the league by being the reliable backup QB who his coaches could trust. I don’t think that mentality ever leaves when you become a big-money starter. Matt LaFleur also made a really interesting comment a few years ago in a conference call with us. He said that Kirk is an anticipation thrower (because he doesn’t have a rocket), which means that he can’t just see something flash and whip it in there. He has to see it coming open and then throw to a spot. Everything is happening super fast out there, it isn’t as simple as just tossing it up and hoping… that’s how you become Jameis Winston with all his INTs.

@GeofftheJohnson Should we be talking more about how well the 2020 draft seems to have turned out? Nine of the players from the 53 man roster are from that draft, which seems pretty good? 2019/2021 sucked, but the 2020 draft feels like a fulcrum for this current roster.

Certainly the two receivers were huge hits from 2020 but the rest leave some to be desired. I’m still not entirely sure if either Ezra Cleveland or Cam Dantzler are above average players yet. DJ Wonnum has given them some situational pass rushing, James Lynch is just a guy and Josh Metellus was impressive last week. It certainly ranks high among Spielman drafts, it’s just that the overall value of the other picks outside of Jefferson hasn’t been all that high. That can change still, of course.

Andrew via email 1.       is there any evidence to suggest that under the current, offence-friendly rules, a bend-but-don’t-break defence is actually sustainable?  The Vikings are 30th in yardage allowed, but 10th in scoring, and that seems unlikely to last all season.

2.       why does KOC keep calling plays to a TE who cannot catch footballs when they hit him in the hands?

Ranking 30th in yards and top-10 in scoring isn’t likely to sustain but their upcoming opponents could certainly help those rankings. New Orleans and Chicago have the potential to make their numbers look better. Over the long haul, who’s going to really punish them? Miami, maybe Kyler Murray with DeAndre Hopkings back, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and maybe Rodgers? I think the schedule suggests they can hold up playing this way. As far as your second point, a lot of Vikings fans are really going too far about Irv Smith Jr. Is this because there isn’t a struggling guard to slam every week? It’s been a rough start for a very talented guy that missed a lot of football due to injuries. There’s 14 weeks to go. If it continues like this, then they’ll have to make some changes to use Mundt more. But we’re underestimating (and maybe they did too) how difficult it was going to be to come back.

@MichaelSenn10 Have all these games across the pond made any significant profit for the NFL? Because if I'm getting up before noon on a Sunday, it damn well better be for a good cause.

I don’t have a good answer for you there. I get the impression that England has never really gotten on board with the NFL but it’s getting popular in some other countries like Germany. It’s a long-term play for Roger Goodell. He knows there’s money to be made if he can get Europe to accept the NFL like most of the world has with the NBA.

@headcoach21 We haven’t talked about the offensive line much. Is that a good or bad thing??

Maybe both. It’s a good thing in the way that they haven’t been a problem in these first three weeks. At the same time, the offense hasn’t executed particularly well overall with a lot of clean pockets. In the long run you would expect the offense to improve if they are giving Cousins the types of chances they have in these last few weeks. Lean good thing much more than bad.

@jtlaurie I understand Donatell’s defensive philosophy but don’t you think he will need to incorporate more blitzes here and there and to avoid predictability and cause extra pressure?

I do, yes. But the question is…when? They have been giving up a lot of yards in the run game, so they can’t blitz a ton on first and second down because they risk allowing a huge run. They held the Lions to 3-for-16 on third down last week so it’s not like they were a disaster. The defense also doesn’t really have a linebacker whose specialty is blitzing. It’s gonna have to be a thing where they pick their spots.

@NsportsfanM JJ was taken out of the game two weeks in a row. By physical corners. What does he need to change and what do the coaches need to change to free him up?

It’s probably a few things. Getting him moving at the snap a little more might help via jet motions, using bunch formations a little more often, getting him more short routes early in the game to get him and Cousins on the same page and then having other dudes make the opposing team pay. The Vikings eventually did that against the Lions but not for the majority of the game. They need other people to step up right from the start. Maybe the opening script will be focused on KJ Osborn and Adam Thielen so the Saints have to adapt on the fly. If defenses aren’t punished by the other receivers, they’ll keep doing this. The other part of it is that we have to give some credit where it’s due. Okudah is a great talent and so is Darius Slay. They both played extremely well.

@terryrheault Have you done "most overrated Vikings"? If not, my pick: Anthony Barr. Perennially praised, but rarely made splash plays. His career highlight was injuring Rodgers in '17. 2nd pick: Kevin Williams. Great pass rusher 1st 2 years, then became a run stuffer (when no one ran on us).

I’m not sure how to define overrated. I think Mike Zimmer was right about Anthony Barr but his contract was not justified. He did a lot of things that went beyond the box score or the PFF grades (which reward splash plays a lot and can’t tell you how often a guy wasn’t targeted because he was in a good spot). You’re being unfair to say his career highlight was hurting Rodgers. He was a key player on elite defenses from 2014-2018 and then his second contract was not good.

If we’re talking overvalued by the team rather than “overrated,” Kyle Rudolph’s last contract (which they’re still paying for) falls under that category.

@LfcMay What are the top 3 things someone going to a Vikings game should do/see/eat in the twin cities?

Well, one thing I have to say is that I’m not exactly a tour guide. I kinda sit inside and write about football all day. But when people ask this question, I usually suggest the Stone Arch Bridge, Murray’s restaurant, Hen House, The Guthrie, Minnehaha Falls (depending on the time of year). I’m sure people in the comments can add a few more.

@edwinsagain Little NFL Q for you.. If you don’t mind, sir, I’d love your take on Tua.

I’m answering this just after he got hurt in the game. Just terrible. Insane that the Dolphins played him in that game after his injury last week. They were asking for this. I like Tua a lot. He reminds me of pre-knee Teddy. He has a lot of heart and leadership abilities but doesn’t exactly have a rocket arm. With a lot around him, he can win a bunch of games. Not if he’s severely injured, of course. Thanks for nothing, Dolphins. It’s still astounding that the league did not step in and investigate Miami as soon as they claimed he had a back injury.

@Jordan_Fisk Is the defense doing better than people are giving them credit for? My understanding of the shell defense is it's going to give up plenty of yards but kinda relies on holding offenses to FGs instead of TDs which they've been mostly good at so far. 18.3 PPG feels like a win to me

Part of that number is that the opposing teams have been up two scores a lot and have dialed back their aggressiveness (which cost the Lions the game probably more than the fourth down call). To your question, it is possible to have a large differential between yards and points. Kansas City gave up the sixth most yards last year and eighth fewest points. But it’s not easy to do. Of 13 teams that gave up more than 6,000 yards last year, only two ranked in the top half of the league in points allowed.

@DarrickMoren Say Hunter keeps playing the way he has the rest of the season. (average) Does he get extended OR traded on his trade friendly last year of his deal for a haul?

They put themselves in a pretty darn tough spot with him. Hunter has an $18 million dead cap number in 2023 if they cut or trade him before June 1. If they do it post June 1, he’s on the books until 2025. The only real options are giving him a new deal which may be a little more favorable if he doesn’t play that well this year or sign-and-trade. His PFF grade is pretty solid despite the lack of production, so it’s more likely than not that he’ll get rolling soon.

@HandAvenue Over/under 1st qtr yardage for the Boilerm… err Saints: 75

I may be completely wrong but I think if Andy Dalton plays that they’re going to move the ball a little, particularly if Za’Darius Smith doesn’t play. Alvin Kamara could get involved in the passing game more and Dalton can get rid of the ball quick, which matches up well against the Vikings’ defense playing everybody back.

@HektnerScott Aside from London, gimme some cool spots around the world for the NFL to have games?

Near an active volcano. In Australia with kangaroos running on the field. Next to the Great Wall of China? OK kidding aside, when they had the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, I remember the views they showed on TV looking amazing. The Vikings playing in Iceland makes too much sense.

@SOCIALorDIRTY Why does Donatell insist on playing 90% zone behind a 4 man rush. Wouldn't mixing in more man coverage make sense if they are just rushing 4 most of the time?

It seems to tell us what they think of the cornerbacks and it’s hard for me to say that it’s the wrong approach. Should they trust the corners to be one-on-one with the types of receivers they’ve faced the last couple weeks? I’m not sure I would. I don’t mean to be Ed Donatell’s biggest defender here, I just think this is a product of having one corner who’s on the wrong side of 30 and two others they don’t trust. They drafted Andrew Booth Jr. to change that and maybe someday he will.

@stollwi716 If the Bills and Vikings played in the Super Bowl, what apocalyptic event would destroy the world before one of them managed to win? On a more serious note, we talk a lot about QB development, I've gotten curious lately about what separates offensive line play. How would you rank the following in terms of importance to developing an effective o-line: talent, coaching, and scheme?

PFF did a study that showed offensive line coaches making a difference over a long period of time, so I’ll put coaching way up there. Scheme only does so much. I don’t think there’s any scheme that makes it easy to be an NFL offensive lineman. Of course talent is at the top of the list, but what’s unique about the position is that offensive linemen can take years to maximize their full potential because it’s such a technical and high IQ position. There’s so much to process at once that you rarely see rookies be good, so teams have to be patient. That’s not always easy to do.

Thomas via email I keep hearing (and sometimes reading) that the Vikings defense is a "bend-don't-break" defense. How much credence do you put into this versus it being a new scheme for the Vikings with new players figuring things out? It's only week 4 and I'm not anticipating the 01 Ravens by season end, but do you expect to see a "bend-don't-break" defensive mindset in Week 17 (and hopefully beyond)?

I’m sure there’s some element of players fully understanding the defense so maybe it gets a little more aggressive as the season goes along but I don’t think this thing is getting better. They are super thin at every position except safety, if there are any injuries it’s going to look a lot like previous years. That’s just the reality of trying to tape together a defense. I’d also say that we’ve all watched Mike Zimmer’s defense for so long that’s what we’re used to watching. This is quite a bit different.

@12laugh Did we stumble into a Pro Bowl punter with Ryan Wright?

Maybe. Matt Daniels said he has a top 10 leg in the league and I agree. He won the job for a reason.

@BIG_dannn Okay I’m back part 2. Honeymoon is done from Europe & I’ve finally caught up on all the games. My untrained eyes see a very hesitant Kirk? Do you see the same or is it just a new offense & I just have to be patient. His Accuracy seems off even though the o-line is performing good

Congratulations on getting married! Your eyes are not deceiving you and it’s something to wonder about. It could very well be just a product of getting acclimated to the offense. Everyone in training camp said that it was a difficult transition and even the slightest hesitation would cause problems. But I have thought about the age thing. Here’s the list of QBs 34 or older to win more than 10 games in a season since 2000: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Rich Gannon, Kerry Collins, Eli Manning. That’s not a long list (and both Eli and Collins weren’t good in their 11-win seasons). Jay Cutler was playing for the Dolphins at age 34. Donovan McNabb was in Washington at 34. I dunno if there’s something age related but it’s kind of a magic number for non legends.

@AES64 it's early, but if KOC can't figure out how to get JJ targets and touches, does he demand a trade this off-season?

Would it make you feel better if I told you that last year Jefferson had 254 yards through three games and this year he has 246? Or that in 2021 he had back-to-back games where he only totaled five receptions and then he went for 143 and 169 in the next two games? We are so far away from the Jefferson contract thing that I don’t know how I could possibly make a prediction. The Vikings are going to put all the bags of money on the table for him and we’ll see what happens from there.

@JTMNskol It’s been 3 weeks and among the head coaches hired across the league in 2022, do you believe the Vikings made the right call w/ KOC? Josh McDaniels would have been an automatic No for me, but Brian Daboll was someone I had on the top of my list. #friendoftheshow

It’s hard to know how things would look with some other of their potential candidates like Raheem Morris, who had more previous experience but I think they made a good call, yes. The best way to put it might be that KOC hasn’t stepped in any big potholes yet. But he’ll have a lot to navigate as they go forward. If he can get the offense back on track after some rocky times here over the last two weeks, that’ll be a really good sign. And Vikings fans should be thanking the football gods they didn’t hire Jim Harbaugh.

@KyeBaxter After film reviews, does Thielen look like he has lost the ability to get consistent separation or do you think it is truly a matter of "new offense, new looks, everyone still getting on the same page?"

That’s a tough one. Last week he had two very high difficulty Thielen-esque catches, one where he came back to Cousins after things broke down and the other through a lot of contact. So he can still make plays. But it stands to reason that the same burst wouldn’t be there that was in 2018. He probably has to live in the old Larry Fitz or Anquan Boldin realm going forward but if they can scheme him open downfield he’s still going to be great at making plays on the ball. It just seems that opposing defenses are gonna line up with tight coverage and make him beat them off the line.

@smccullough5 In your opinion, who are the top 5 QBs in the NFC and where would they rank in the AFC based on the metric of your choice?

That’s a really tough question. I think Rodgers will get it together, Dak will return and be fine, Hurts, Murray, Brady? Or Stafford? And then Goff, Cousins, Jimmy G all tied for their usual spots in the world. What a horrendous year for NFC quarterback play. None of those guys would rank ahead of Allen, Mahomes or Jackson.

Jeff via email How surprised will you be if the Vikes need to fall back to Kubiak's offense?  (I wouldn't be)

Last week they used a lot of elements that looked like Kubiak, like Cousins going under center and the fullback/tight end combo on the field at the same time. They may find that the right identity for them is a mix of under center bootleg stuff with the occasional air-it-out shotgun concepts. It might not be the full version of everything O’Connell wants to do but it’ll have to do the trick. But yeah, it only took until Week 3 to become clear that Zimmer had the right idea of the type of offense that best fit Cousins.

@dmoney0919 More talented roster Vikings or Saints? What individual or positional matchups are you most looking forward to watch?

It’s very close to even. The Saints have a little more on the defensive side, the Vikings have a better QB situation. Jefferson vs. Lattimore is the matchup that could define this game. I’d also keep an eye on David Onyemata vs. the interior OL and the different ways they use Tyrann Mathieu. I also want to see if the attention on Justin Jefferson really opens up KJ Osborn this week and if we see the first big game from Irv Smith Jr.