Friday mailbag: Why did they cut that dude? Is this rebuilding?

Vikings fans are fascinated by the team releasing Ihmir Smith-Marsette and trading for Jalen Reagor

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by Matthew Coller

Following an interesting cutdown week for the Vikings, we are now one more mailbag away from real football. We’ve finally made it, everyone. But first, we’ve got some things to sort out, so let’s dive into it…

@alstrain Did the Vikings overpay for Reagor? I think giving up two picks, including a 4th rounder, for a guy who will primarily be your punt returner is steep. If he doesn't hit the incentives to make it a 4th and it stays a 5th, that's still bad because it means he was bad.

I did think about how it was only one year ago that Rick Spielman gave up a fourth-round pick as a reaction to a injury for a player who hadn’t lived up to his potential and now the new brass gave up a fourth-round pick as a reaction to an injury for a player who hasn’t lived up to his potential. If we look at what other bust receivers have gone for in trades, it’s usually less than this. N’Keal Harry went for a conditional seventh. Laviska Shenault moved for a 2023 seventh-round pick and a 2024 sixth-rounder. Maybe it depends on how high they set the bar with those statistical incentives. If he needs to be amazing to make it a fourth, it’s probably fine to spend a fifth (two years from now) on a swing at somebody who’s made some plays in the NFL before, can punt return and might have some potential left.

@DarrickMoren I thought of ISM as the burner in our WR room and thought he was a good fit for a handful of (potentially game-changing) plays per game. Reagor was compared to DeSean Jackson in the draft, why did the Vikings see him as a better fit than a promising 2nd yr WR in ISM????

As I’ve seen the reaction to Smith-Marsette being cut, I keep wondering…where does it come from? He’s a fifth-round pick who had five catches last year and three of them were in a meaningless game against Chicago in Week 18. He wasn’t a particularly special athlete. He didn’t have a great college career. Last year there were some hints at problems mastering the details, which may have carried over to this year with a new offense and he definitely couldn’t return punts. He made a handful of nice catches in camp or preseason but so did Stacy Coley and Alexander Hollins. Maybe I should be slower to believe in this staff’s evaluations because they are new but I didn’t see anything special that would have indicated he was super promising or that he could make several game-changing plays per game. If he could do that, he’d be a lock for the roster.

Reagor has played before in games and presumably has more raw talent. At WR4 and PR1, they need someone who can jump into a game and run the routes that are called. And it’s possible somebody in the building liked him coming out of college, so they took a flier. It’s not mysterious.

@AstroGardener GB most likely be surprised by Vikings new scheme due to lack of tape. On the other hand Zim always schemed cleverly against AROG even in his worst defensive years, something We don't know Ed Donatel can. Who do you give the nod to for element of surprise?

Nobody in the NFL is really surprised by anybody’s scheme in 2022. Everyone in the league knows how the Rams’ offense or Fangio’s works at this point. That’s why Pat Shurmur used to say “it’s the players not the plays.” It’s about executing it, calling the right plays at the right times and throwing in a few wrinkles that they don’t see coming and then having the best players make big plays. The biggest factor against Rodgers is that he’s adjusting to an offense that isn’t predicated on throwing it to one dude that he loves anymore. The Vikings have a healthy defense with Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter looking good. If they get after Rodgers, particularly with a jacked up crowd, the Vikings have a good chance in the game. Not that the element of surprise will ever be dead in football, it’s just that there’s so much information available that it’s hard to completely catch the other team off guard with an entire scheme.

@TBA7120 Why cut ISM instead of somebody like Oli Udoh (no disrespect). Not sure he was that productive with what we saw last year. ISM has much greater upside. Your thoughts?

I’m just not going to get on board with the ISM upside thing. By Year 2, guys like KJ Osborn and Stefon Diggs crushed training camp. Osborn would have blown past Bisi Johnson had Johnson been healthy last year. Smith-Marsette lost the WR4 competition to Johnson, who was solid but not a high bar for anyone with unique talent. I’m not sure they need Udoh when Brandel can be the swing tackle but if you’re asking which I’d rather have, shrugs is the answer.

@smccullough5 It's clear that the third round of the 2021 draft class did not have many hits. On average, what percent of round 1-3 draft picks are still on the team that drafted them over the last 5 years across the NFL and where do the Vikings rank on that list?

The Friday mailbag usually doesn’t provide answers that would be a week-long research project so I’ll throw this out there: The 2021 draft was unusual because COVID threw everything for a loop and a ton of players decided to stay in college another year. I remember stats coming out about how many fewer players declared for the draft in 2021, so it was a historically weak class past about the second round. Look at the other guys from the 2021 third round and you’ll find very few that the Vikings should have taken instead.

But in the drafts before 2021 they had a lot of problems hitting on first rounders (aside from Jefferson) and/or finding decent late-round role players and that absolutely put the new regime behind the eight ball. Their overall success was middling at best from ‘17-’20. Here’s a look from PFF from 2017-2020:

@SchielBrian With preparation flipping to weekly games, are practice squad players kind of on their own in sharpening their skills and football IQ?

In the NFL that’s always the case. The Vikings have talked about wanting to develop players — and that’s great if they have some tactics to do that — but development generally needs to happen away from the facility. Coaches are there to coach Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson and win football games, not spend time holding younger players’ hands. To be honest, I wonder if O’Connell spent too much time caring about Kellen Mond.

Also, the practice squad guys have a job. They are there to prepare the starters. They study the opponent’s scheme and do their best to emulate it during practice. If a player has less potential but is better at helping them prep for games, that guy probably stays.

@thetuse I am not familiar with a 3-4 defense in terms of scheme. Is there any concerns of offenses attacking the zones vacated by the rushing of Danielle Hunter/Za’Darius Smith or trying to get either of those guys in pass coverage?

A little bit. If you’re an opponent, you are definitely spending the week thinking about any way possible to get Hunter or Za’Darius in coverage. But the Vikings also know that. They will be mostly operating out of the nickel, which is why Ed Donatell has described them more as “edge rushers” than outside linebackers. But you might see the Packers use two tight ends in order to get the bigger personnel on the field for the Vikings and run some stuff with the aim of making them cover. Still if you look at Smith’s career numbers, he’s rarely been asked to actually drop back. These dudes will be running at QBs all year, same as always.

@mnjoker0015 Factoring in scheme and everything how do you think the 53 would be different if it was still the old regime?

Assuming they did the same stuff in the offseason like sign Hicks and bring back key veterans etc., it wouldn’t look much different. I think Davis and Surratt get cut either way. Maybe Smith-Marsette stays as WR5 and they still make an acquisition at receiver. Something also to point out is that the new regime is not starting their first-round pick right away…if Zimmer did that, he would have gotten criticized for it.

We love to talk about cutdown day and whatever moves happen but the reality of the 2022 Vikings is that they’ll be determined by all the guys who matter most and if anybody else has to play too much, it’s probably over.

@PurpleBloodMN What are your top 3 areas of concern for this team heading into week 1 and your level of concern for each? Thanks for all of the top notch content!

The secondary is at the top of the list. Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith should be fine but everybody else has questions. Can Cam Dantzler be more consistent and handle being locked into the starting role? Wil Chandon Sullivan avoid being the weak link? Will Cam Bynum be the next man in a long list of successful Smith partners? Will any of their depth players step up if called upon?

After that, interior O-line. We don’t know yet if Ingram can actually play or just beat out Jesse Davis. And the scheme-QB relationship. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster in camp.

@Callytops Hey Matt, how's Ty Chandler looking? Obviously he's buried on the RB depth chart but what are your thoughts on him as a prospect? Thx!

He had a very good preseason. I liked that he ran through people as well as hit holes with authority (Kevin Harlan voice). It’s possible that he and/or Nwangwu could be competing for the starting job next year, depending on how things with Dalvin Cook play out this offseason. But I’d also say that he carried the ball 15 times in the preseason, so we can’t quite crown him yet (Denny Green voice).

@MIvikesfan with the starting front 5 on the offensive line, what is the floor & ceiling for their performance? is it possible for hopefully upgraded guard play from Cleveland and Ingram to cover Bradbury's pass blocking deficiencies? could the switch to Chris Reed at C?

The ceiling is maybe 15th. They could definitely be improved on the interior of Cleveland continues his development and Ingram plays well as a rookie. At this point Bradbury would have to really, really struggle for them to go to the bench because Reed barely played center in camp and Schlottman is more of a classic backup interior OL guy. The floor is being like 27th. Starting as a rookie guard is really tough. If Cleveland doesn’t get better, they’re going to get eaten up by some of the good D-lines they face this year.

@CorporonWade How much value does Thielen bring to the WR room? Is just him being there and having to work his way up from a UDF to a great WR giving Osborn and other young receivers hope and a will to work harder at their skill. Can this help Reagor?

I do believe that players have the ability to help those around them but I don’t think there’s any pixie dust that Thielen sprinkles on UDFAs or late-round picks. Osborn is one out of many, many receivers that have come and gone through the years. If Reagor is going to get good, it’s because his situation is a little more favorable and he makes the improvements needed on his own.

@NsportsfanM In general rank the o and d lines from last year to this year going into the season

Am I ranking how the Vikings looked coming out of camp last year or at the end of last year? Because the D-line looked pretty darn good heading into the 2021 season. Griffen, Pierce, Tomlinson, Hunter is as good as Smith, Phillips, Tomlinson, Hunter. And the issues with depth are the same. Last year I would have put them somewhere between 10th-15th on the D-line and 20th on the O-line at the end of August and this year I’d give them about the same ranking until I the two guards are good in real games. I do see Darrisaw taking a step forward this year and (obligatory “if he’s healthy” comment) they can have a top five tackle duo in the league.

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 When looking at adding players, how much do you think the current regime values a player's draft position compared to a pure evaluation on-field play? How much does draft position skew their bias when doing player evaluations?

It’s always been my opinion that once a guy is in the league everything else should be thrown out the window but teams definitely do not operate like that. They consider what their scouts thought of the player coming out of college and whether something might have been missed by the team that drafted them. Naturally there is going to be more love for higher picks. There have been studies on this that show that first-rounders basically keep getting chances as long as they want them because there’s always a team out there who liked the guy in the draft. I swear Kansas City has signed every bust in existence at one point or another.

@Just1SBB4IDie I want an impression of Spielman when he saw all of his 2021 draft picks were cut by Kwesi

I’m sure by the end of last year’s camp Rick had a pretty good idea of where that train was headed. I doubt he was shocked. But maybe he made a Tik Tok video of himself dancing to ease the pain of the memories.

Jeff via email: The Vikings strength-of-schedule is ranked 20th based on win percentage last season. The other guys in our division all have slightly weaker schedules, but not so much it would matter.  That said, my question is: Other than "it's all we've got",  why do we assume that last year's win percentage means much of anything?

Most of the teams with weaker win percentage had higher draft picks & more cap space than the better teams so would be logical that they will take larger steps forward. In other words, the worse a team is the more likelihood that they will improve.  Your take on this?

Yeah, that’s why people have started to use the Vegas over/under totals to figure out strength of schedule. Because the bettors are going to factor in how much these teams have gained or lost and how that might impact their actual strength. Historically there’s a lot of year to year change in the standings so that’s not a reliable metric. Using the gambling way, the Vikings are coincidentally ranked 20th in strength of schedule.

Thing is, I’ve never really cared about strength of schedule until the midpoint of the season. Then you can tell who’s had it hard/easy and who has it hard/easy the rest of the way because you have actual information on the teams, not just guesswork.

@youvikethat1 Over/under fake punts this year 2.5?

Under, though Ryan Wright could absolutely truck a safety for a first down if called upon.

@HangBilly With waiving players to free up space.. how likely are they going to replace their Center or pickup SUH??

Sooooo right after the Vikings announced the roster and made the Blacklock trade, OverTheCap listed them at $11.3 million, which I used in the article two days ago. When they updated their numbers with Jalen Reagor on the team and the dead cap from guys getting cut etc. and the practice squad (which is $2.4 million) they ended up with only $3.1 million. To tell you the truth, I didn’t expect it to drop by that much. What I’m trying to say is: They have no money for anyone else unless they make an additional move…and sometimes it appears like teams have more flexibility than they do during the offseason.

@WriterChurchill For Friday Mailbag: Are we finally done with playing not to lose?

Everyone will tell you in July and August that they are going to be the most aggressive team walking the planet but they have to prove that September-January. I believe Kevin O’Connell is going to handle game management in a more modern and data-based way and I believe they are going to let the passing game drive the bus but Mike Zimmer didn’t decide at random to run on second down. He did that often because he didn’t trust his quarterback. If KOC gets burned a few times, will he do the same? Or will he keep going back to the well?

@CodyJoh22365611 Seems like Kwesi is trying to stack the roster with young players who can be acquired cheaply and have unrecognized potentially high upside. Is this the rebuild part of the competitive rebuild?

I think there’s like…25% truth in this statement. It seems the Ross Blacklock move was about a guy who might be a better fit and has another year on his deal. Reagor is a depth guy with some experience who might/maybe/possibly/longshot/probablywont have something else there. But these types of moves aren’t unusual. This overhaul has only existed at the bottom of the roster and not the top where it matters. I haven’t seen anything that’s truly rebuild-y. If they had traded Harrison Smith at the end of camp, now THAT would have been rebuild-y. This is shuffling the deck chairs around.

@burnretina The vikings have ten home games this year. I know the split won't be even with 17 games now but what are the regulations around this, i.e. what are the min/max possible and do they balance accordingly in following years etc. Any special insights around this?

It seems you accidentally counted the Vikings playing in London as a home game. Teams are going to get either eight or nine home games and switch every other year. Last season they got eight home games and @LA was the extra road contest that was added late. This year they get nine at home, next year eight and on and on until they inevitably play an 18-game schedule.

@JamesOw02568686 No 3rd qb, did they get caught off guard that Mond and Mannion were claimed?

Maybe. It might be more accurate to wonder if they got caught off guard that neither Mond or Mannion weren’t capable of being QB2. (They also signed David Blough today).

@spardisjx How is it you live rent free in so many of your detractors’ heads Matthew Coller?

Hm. Well, there can’t be too many detractors because this newsletter ranks in the top 20 among all Substack sports newsletters. The Purple Insider podcast ranked 65th among all football podcasts and in the top 250 of all sports podcasts by the website Chartable. That sounds to me like a lot of supporters. The reason I started Purple Insider after 1500ESPN shut down was because of the awesome interactions with Vikings fans.

The support I’ve received from Day 1 when I moved here has been unbelievable. The support when things went sideways with the old AM radio station was legitimately moving. Your guys’ commitment to getting behind this thing and asking questions every week and opening these emails at a rate way above what you’d expect for a newsletter speaks to the passion you have for this team and that makes every day on the “job” great for me. So if a few folks aren’t into what I’m doing here, that’s OK. Anyway, I’m much more interested in what the Vikings fans who follow along have to say than wannabes or trolls.

@headcoach21 Which areas of the Vikings roster can you say “yup that’s definitely better than what it was last year”??

As of this moment, I can’t definitively say that about any particular area, even beyond just the roster. Like, I suspect the offensive line will be better but I don’t know for sure. I think they’ll handle the clock better. I buy handling player health better. I know if Smith/Hunter are healthy it’ll be an improvement. I’m leaning toward Dantzler/Sullivan being an upgrade on Breeland/Alexander and the depth being improved but that’s a low bar.

All of those things have the potential to go sideways too. So I can’t say “definitely,” I can say possibly… and that they need them to be better. *Chris Berman enters*: THATS WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES.