Friday Mailbag: When will McCarthy start?

Vikings fans are interested in the timeline for the rookie QB

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everybody! We’ll have another open OTA practice next week so there will be more to learn about this team soon. Until then, we have a schedule, so let’s dive into your questions….

@jrhutton67 Can they be better than third in the division?

Well, anything can happen. I never would have dreamed that Case Keenum would lead the Vikings to a division title in 2017 so I’d never count anything out. This team was an Alex Mattison fumble and Justin Fields comeback away from 9-8 last year despite playing with three backup QBs. If they have halfway decent quarterback play, Jefferson/Addison and Brian Flores’ defense can drag them to relevance. Last year the Bucs went 9-8 with the 20th best offense and 7th best defense. I could see some version like that competing for a playoff spot.

I was curious about predictions last year and how close they were to being right. ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters nailed most of the playoff teams in their preseason rankings but they had Green Bay 20th, Tampa Bay 30th and Houston 31st. There’s always a few teams that everyone is wrong about and I suppose it’s on either Darnold or McCarthy to make the prognosticators wrong because I think the rest of the team is capable of being competitive in the division.

@Rob_AirOne - How horribly will the Vikings lose to my NY Giants in week 1…?

I’ll tell ya, Mr. Giants Fan, if they lose that game it’s not going to feel very good. The schedule looks like a monster to begin the year. Five of the six games after Week 1 are against teams that were in the playoffs in 2023 and then it’s two more teams that were pretty good last year in Colts and Jags. If the Jets are good then there won’t be any type of break.

Week 1 can also be wonky. It feels like every year there’s a bunch of strange results in the opening week of the season where teams are trying to figure everything out. The Vikings should be a better team than the Giants but it’s tougher to be certain about that when it’s the opening game and we’re talking about a new QB for the Vikings.

“That’s why they play the games.”

@smccullough5 Since we are in full schedule analysis mode, what's your top 2 "shocking upset wins" for the Vikings?

I’m not sure if it would be shocking if they won at Lambeau Field early in the year but I picked them to win that game. The one that I could see them pulling off a surprise win is against Houston. That team is going to have a ton of hype going into the year (and I agree with it) but I’m not sure that they are invincible. Brian Flores vs. CJ Stroud could be a fascinating battle.

We can’t exactly say beating the 49ers would be stunning after they won last year, though it took a tremendous performance by Cousins to do it.

@therealbozz Would you rather fight one Pat Williams-sized weasel, or ten weasel-sized Pat Williamses? Williamsii?

I’ll take the weasel sized Pat Williamses. They would still have a lot of tenacity but size is really the fundamental reason that Pat was so scary for opponents. If there was a weasel that size, it could do a lot of damage. I looked it up and found that they have really sharp teeth. I want nothing to do with a 350-pound varmint with sharp teeth.

@JTMNskol If you had to pick a WR in free agency that’s still out there, who would it be?

It’s not an inspiring group. There has to be something up with Hunter Renfrow. It doesn’t make a ton of sense that he’s still out there considering his previous success. It’s weird how it happens that way sometimes in the NFL though. Remember Kendall Wright? He was a really solid No. 2/3 receiver and then just… done. Unless Renfrow is a Dalton Risner situation where he thinks he’s worth way more money than he actually is, in which case they could wait him out.

At this point they should probably just roll with what they have and see if anybody emerges.

@tjkill81 What benchmarks do you think the Vikings should have for McCarthy’s progress?

From inside the building it’s entirely about his command of the offense and trust from coaches and teammates that he has the thing mastered. From the outside perspective — us standing on the sideline watching training camp — it’s hard to describe but there is a certain feeling you have when is in total control. Things just work in rhythm. If it looks like that as we progress during camp, then there’s a chance he could start right away.

As far as dates to watch… let’s see if he gets first-team reps in minicamp. That would mean he’s picking up things pretty nicely. If not, then the big part of camp will be the joint practices. Those are more important than preseason games most of the time. Is he playing in preseason? What does that look like?

I’m guessing he’s going to have to rip the job away from Darnold out of camp. After that, it might be based on when they feel like he’s got the gameplan down and is comfortable with the week-to-week process. If they start off 1-4 or something, it might be worth considering starting to get him work. There’s a lotta different ways this thing could go.

@JPLloyd0419 What role do you think Khyree Jackson will play this year? Considering he progresses enough to play right away.

For Year 1, if he’s on the field then it’s a win. We saw Jay Ward last year play a ton of special teams, which is great and may help him get into the mix this year. If Jackson is playing any more than an ST role, that is a sign that he’s really getting it.

If we’re talking about a world where he’s proven to Flores that he’s ready to be on the field, I’d guess he’s playing outside corner in a rotational role. Flores likes to get everybody involved and Jackson’s size could give him some favorable matchups against bigger wide receivers.

Jackson is definitely a guy that I’m intrigued by. He’s really good at playing the ball and tackling, which seems like a great fit with Flores.

@headcoach21 Do you see Dallas Turner winning DROTY??

It’s very possible. I saw Seth Walder put out a projection based on his model about the first three years of sack production and Turner’s number blew away everyone else. I assume that it’s based on college production and athletic markers. He has all the makeup of a dude who jumps into the league right away and makes a difference.

I’m still having to adjust my eyes when it comes to pass rushers. I’m used to them looking like Everson and Danielle. Turner isn’t imposing like that so there may be some adjustment period to playing against the behemoths of the NFL.

@rglyons54 Was Sam Darnold their best option?

Yes. Who else? I would have been good with Gardner Minshew or Jacoby Brissett. Going for options like Jameis Winston or Jimmy G or Mac Jones might have had a slightly better chance to play well but Darnold handled his year as a backup with a young QB starting really well. There is upside with Darnold, too. There is a chance he could vastly outperform anything he’s done before.

@cmonVikings I truly believe everyone is sleeping on this defense this upcoming season. I have high expectations for the defense more than the offense which is why I am one of those who says why not start McCarthy from day 1 with all this talent around him offensively and defensively???

I’m generally in agreement about the defense. They are a more complete group than last year where they had to rely so heavily on Danielle Hunter and blitzing to create pressure. The problem still exists in the depth. The Vikings really need to have another Ivan Pace Jr. and Josh Metellus type situation where guys emerge when we didn’t expect.

I don’t believe the supporting cast on offense or defense will impact their decision on McCarthy much. It’s entirely about KOC feeling like he’s locked down the details. That means cadence, alignment, footwork, protections and on and on. It’s a complicated game. We can give him time.

@SwedSkol If you could choose one of last year’s backups to take the leap into a solid starter, who would you choose and why?

A few nominations would be Blake Brandel at guard. There has to be a reason why they are OK with him being in that spot rather than signing several other players to compete. I could see Jalen Nailor finally getting some shine finally. The talent is there, he just hasn’t had the opportunity with the injuries last year. We could probably include Ty Chandler in this list, even if he’s not technically the starter. He could end up with 125 carries or something like that and be an impact player in a duo.

@JamesOw02568686 Robert Tonyan signing an indication of concern about Hockenson or just a depth move?

Could be both. They kept four tight ends last year so they might have him compete with Nick Muse for the bottom of the roster spot. But we also figured that it was going to take a while before Hockenson was ready because his recovery was slowed down from the start so they could let the MCL heal. We’ll just have to wait and see how much he’s able to do early in camp.

@BigJbilla What Vikings player would be the hero in #Sharknado?

The easy answer used to be Danielle Hunter. Now I actually think it’s Pace Jr. That guy isn’t big but he’s a wolverine out there.

@KingRooster77 Why wont you trade Buffalo Jefferson?....please...pretty please

Because it would be insane to trade one of the greatest football players on earth when he’s just entering the peak of his career.

@RynoSota What are the chances one of the UDFA WRs from Mercer make the final 53?

About 0.05%.

Hey, did you know Adam Thielen…

There is a reason they brought them in and very possible that either of them could fight for a practice squad spot but it would take an unbelievable training camp for either to make the roster right away.

@NorthStarsNHL Question 1: Let’s say Darnold plays well, but the record is just not there at the trade deadline. What do you think the Vikings could get back for him in a trade with a QB needy team? Question 2: Who is QB 2 or 3 between Hall and Mullens?

There aren’t a ton of mid-season quarterback trades to use as a guidepost here. Considering he’s on a one-year deal and not a multi-year QB we can’t quite make a Sam Bradford first-round pick comparison. Really depends on the situation, right? When the Vikings traded for Bradford they were desperate because they figured their team could legitimately compete with the defense they were running out there. But imagine if Brock Purdy got hurt and the 49ers needed Darnold back. I have to imagine a second-rounder would be on the table there. If it’s a mid-pack team that’s just hoping to squeak out a playoff appearance, I’m not sure they are giving up a ton for him.

Mullens makes a lot of sense to keep around as QB2. It isn’t pretty but he can play in real games and operate the offense. We didn’t see that from Hall in his appearances.

@_Shaugen After the Jefferson extension, what needs to be the next move?

If they get it done before the end of minicamp, then Cabo is the next move for everybody in the organization.

I don’t see much more to be done here. You’d like to see another guard. Maybe another wide receiver. Unless something really shocking happens, this is your 2024 Vikings team.

Kyle R…Did you get Dallas Turner’s gamer tag? You better play him in Madden!

That was funny. For those who missed it, Turner said he spent a lot of time playing video games and I asked him which game. He asked if I wanted to play him in Madden.

Here’s the thing: I don’t have a PS5 and I don’t know what a gamer tag is. But I was recently playing an NCAA05 season with Missouri in which I’m turning Brad Smith into a Heisman winner. Before that I won the Super Bowl with the 2005 Cincinnati Bengals on Madden — the first year of the hit stick. I mixed in some NBA Hangtime on N64. I’ll probably get out the golf clubs in Mario Golf soon.

These young players are not making me feel like a spry youth.

@KyeBaxter Could you go more in depth on what you meant in the podcast the other day about installing a couple plays during rookie mini camp? I assume you are saying more than just simply the play, but things like how routes are adjusted against certain looks, different checks, etc.

So much goes into a single play. You have the alignment, pre-snap motion, protection, cadence, the pre-snap defensive look, the post-snap defensive look, footwork on different routes, hitches, reads… you have to know every single player’s assignment because if somebody isn’t doing something right it’s on the QB to fix it. Yes, the routes can change based on the defense. There was a third-down play last year where TJ Hockenson talked about having the freedom to see what the defense was doing and then get himself to certain spaces. The QB has to see what he sees and have a feeling about where he’s going to go.

There’s a lot to learn for the youths. Go find Chase Daniel and Dan Orlovsky breaking down their playbooks. Complicated game.

@JoshuaR_Smith More of a Q for Josh McCown or KOC, but you're just under their tier as a QB expert so I'll pose it to you since I don't have their contact info: How difficult is it to teach a young QB who is in love with fastballs to throw with touch?

Uh, yes, I’m right in their rear view mirror.

I’m going to tell you the truth: I don’t know. It kind of reminds me of Josh Allen. He never really learned to put perfect touch on the ball but improved his accuracy enough to the point where he could hit the right spots. Plus, when Daboll was there, it seemed like they set him up to have mostly throws that were bullets rather than touch passes.

The only thing I can say is that you’d much rather have too much rocket fuel than not enough. We see guys like Stafford get away with crazy passes because they have so much velocity on the football that defenders can’t react quick enough.

McCarthy is also so young that I have to imagine he’s still forming all of his habits. That gives him a chance too.

Denton D…I’ve always heard that qb2 doesn’t get many reps during the week. How can McCarthy progress as a qb when he is qb2 and not getting reps when the season starts?