Friday mailbag: When can we start drawing conclusions from camp?
Friday mailbag: When can we start drawing conclusions from camp?
Do we have enough information to make statements about the coach and roster yet?
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By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone. Well, there’s a football game on Saturday and then we’re in the home stretch to the season. We’ve almost made it. Let’s see what’s on everybody’s minds this week…
Thomas via email What’s the effect on the Vikings salary cap if Dye, Mond, Wyatt Davis, and/orSurratt are cut? I believe Bradbury’s is guaranteed, right?
After fiddling around with OverTheCap.com, here’s what I’ve got: They currently have $10.4 million in cap space and only $644k for 2023. If they were to cut all of the guys you mentioned, they would end up with $12.2 million for 2022 and $5.9 million for 2023. So that’s actually something for next year. I’d be surprised if Mond got cut at this point but the rest…there probably isn’t much point to going forward with them. Dye has been the second-team linebacker, so it’s possible they’d like to keep him around to pair with Brian Asamoah and possibly Blake Lynch depending on how they feel about his special teams work. And yes, cutting Bradbury does nothing for the cap.
@GeofftheJohnson "Swearing Kirk" is funny/trivial but also kinda interesting--I really don't recall him doing that before. Do you get any sense (or "vibe?") from practice that he feels/is acting differently this year--with an offensive-minded/former QB coach--relative to the last few with Zim?
I tweeted about Kirk Cussin because I thought it showed that there’s extra juice to the joint practices not to suggest he’s different. Kirk yelled “you like that” really loud last year after a big play in camp too. He didn’t throw in any bad words but it’s not unusual to see him get a little excited at practice. I haven’t seen anything different enough from him to say “wow it’s Kirk’s year” or to suggest that there’s trouble ahead. He’s doing a lot of talking with his QB coach and Jefferson/Thielen, making a lotta good throws and some that seem questionable. There might be a touch of O’Connell asking him to believe in some throws he doesn’t want to make and that’ll be worth watching but I don’t think we can make a definitive statement about how it’s going to go yet. I’d like to turn up the heat on a take here, I just don’t believe enough in stuff like that to do it.
@SadPlanetPdcast What are the odds jefferson has a massive game week 1? People are skeptical because of Jaire, but the only time he has faced him he only received 2 targets imo bcuz of zims outlook on offense and pressure on 8 to not mess up, so i dont think thats fair, i have all the faith in JJ
The odds are always pretty good that Justin Jefferson will have a big game. There’s also some factual problems with your tweet though, the first being that Jefferson and Alexander shared the field twice in 2020, the first was in Week 1, where Jefferson wasn’t starting yet because he was held back by missing practice due to COVID and the lack of a preseason. The second time was when it was unbelievably windy and the Vikings ran/screen passed with Cook the whole game. Neither of those things had anything to do with Zimmer’s philosophy. We can blame Zimmer for a lot of stuff but Jefferson has had one of the best starts to a career for a receiver in NFL history. He was fourth in the NFL in targets last year and Zimmer was shouting at the top of his lungs for Cousins to throw it to Jefferson even more. Should he have been driving the offense with Jefferson more than the run game? Yes. Did he senselessly screw over Jefferson for the record in Week 18? Yes. Did he keep Jefferson from being dominant? Of course not.
@WarleyOwl When will the likelihoods of Cine, Booth and Ingram being week 1 starters become clear, and especially what could we infer from how long or little they play in these last two preseason games?
It’s always interesting to see who plays, especially when it comes to depth battles like receiver or defensive line but we’re pretty clear right now on what’s going to happen with the rookies. Ingram is very, very likely the starter at right guard. Taking all the first team reps for multiple practices this week means the battle is essentially over. The fact that we didn’t see Lewis Cine take first-team reps versus the 49ers makes me think it’s very possible that Cam Bynum is going to be the opening day starting safety. That could change but these practices are considered really good evaluation days and I didn’t see Cine do anything alongside Harrison Smith. I didn’t see Booth Jr. taking first-team reps versus the 49ers either, which seems to indicate it’s Cam Dantzler’s job. I suppose if Dantzler and Booth Jr. both play 35-40 plays against the 49ers, maybe there’s something there but I can only remember a couple Booth Jr. first-team reps during camp. If they are going to change course there, it would have to be very soon.
Let me preemptively say: It’s not a tragedy if Cine or Booth Jr. don’t start right away.
@dustin5522 Do you have an answer or an opinion on why KOC and staff believe so much in Bradbury? Why wouldn’t they bring in some real competition? Maybe schlottmann was suppose to be that, but if he didn’t pan out why wouldn’t they go find someone else? They must know Bradbury is not it.
When we talked to O’Connell about Bradbury, my takeaway was not that he believed in Bradbury unequivocally. He was pointing out the weakness in one-on-one pass protection and said the competition was still open. I think they wanted Chris Reed to get a serious shot at it but Reed got hurt. Finding someone else at this stage of the game would be pretty difficult. That person has to learn the entire Vikings offense from scratch. Let’s think about late camp acquisitions of the past…the Tremaine Brocks, Blake Bells, Chris Herndons etc. rarely are able to make a difference. They are probably hoping to scheme around it as best as possible and for better guard play to help him. However, if they end up with the same results as last year midway through this season, I’d guess Reed gets a shot in the same way Mason Cole did.
@smccullough5 Since Mond completed some passes against third and fourth string roster bubble players it's clear he should be the starter and we should trade Kirk. What do you think Kirk's trade value is and/or will Shanahan just force him on the 49er jet when they leave town?
So you’re not buying that Kirk will up his game under O’Connell, huh? We’ve reached the point where we just have to see how it plays out. Right after the contract extension, it was absolutely fair for a lotta Vikings fans to question if that was the right thing to do and if running it back after four years of disappointment would result in the same old stuff. But we’re like 20 days from the start of the season, so now everything becomes about making the playoffs and then eventually we can talk about what this year means to the future of that position.
@kyleshaner The Guardian Caps players wear during practice are supposed to reduce the risk of injury. What equipment, real or hypothetical, would you need to feel safe while lining up against an NFL player?
Probably one of those giant bubbles that you can rent for parties. The gap in speed, power, muscle mass, toughness and experience between me and an NFL player is so gargantuan that there’s not much that can really help safely get smacked by them.
I know it’s not your question but considering how concussions actually happen in football, I’m skeptical of how much those caps prevent. I’ve heard some offensive line people say it’s doing more to protect the quarterback’s hand than it is the linemen’s heads. I’m not sure. I remember reading that the accumulation of practice head hits did matter when it came to concussions in games so trying to prevent them is good… unless it’s just the NFL trying to look like they’re doing something. This article by Ollie Connolly certainly makes you wonder how much the NFL really cares.
@jeffintokyo1 Which 2nd and 3rd year players are stepping up their game (not the KJ Osborn types who were clearly keepers based on last year)... Basically which guys look that they belong that it was not clear before (Patrick Jones or Twyman types)... In particular, who gotten you excited or at least intrigued?
The book is pretty much written on the third year guys. Ezra Cleveland and Cam Dantzler could definitely improve but not massively at this point and I wouldn’t be able to tell from camp practices if that’s going to happen. Patrick Jones had four pressures in the last preseason game and has gotten consistent run with the 2s (or 1s if Hunter/Smith aren’t in), which makes his camp a success so far. He’s probably still not the next man up if Hunter/Smith gets hurt, that would likely be DJ Wonnum. Twyman is a good story but it would be surprising if he saw much playing time this year, save for a rash of injuries. Bynum would be the biggest winner of the 2020 and 2021 classes if he gets the starting job over Cine. Smith-Marsette has definitely flashed at times but he did last year a bit in camp too.
@JamesOw02568686 Should we be a little optimistic about Mond?
We shouldn’t be thinking about Mond or having any strong reactions to preseason games. Any discussion about his play is because preseason will forever be preseason and everyone is really desperate for football stuff to debate. He’s not going to be the starter long term and if he starts games the Vikings very likely will lose. When the offensive coordinator starts his answer about the backup QB with, “he has to be good in the room,” you know there isn’t much thought to that guy actually playing for any significant amount of time.
@KellySm82722731 Do you think the new training staff that KOC brought over from the Rams that they say is state of the art on nutrition, and training etc. can cut down on injuries especially for veterans or does it matter at all? It seems like the Vikings have more than there share of injuries
The Vikings’ injury luck from year to year has been up and down like most teams. Last year they lost two key players in Smith Jr. and Hunter but not many guys overall. In 2020 the entire cornerback group went down. In 2019 nobody got hurt except Thielen. So I wouldn’t judge the staff entirely on this year’s injury report. What’s clear is that they are doing things in a thoughtful and data-based way. If I had to guess, I’d say one of the things the players wanted was an updated approach to their health and they appear to have gotten it. It definitely matters and in the long run, it’ll make a difference.
@KelKrieg What is the deal with Wyatt Davis? Just not good enough?
Yep. It happens.
@Erik04172824 How’s the secondary looking. Cb depth? Bynum playing well or easing Cine in?
They really aren’t easing Cine in, he’s been purely a backup aside from two or three reps during one practice. The secondary overall remains the biggest concern on the team. Bynum is doing well in practice but you still have the aged Peterson, up-and-down Dantzler and somewhat questionable Sullivan being asked to hold the whole thing down. Booth Jr. has skills but is far from a finished product. They’re gonna need to hope everything falls the right way with that group or we’ll get results much like the last two years out of the defense.
@smccullough5 How did Danielle and Zadarius look against the 49ers this week? Pie chart for how many games they both play this year.
I didn’t watch every rep of them in practice vs. the 49ers, I had a better view of the secondary but overall they have looked like themselves in practice. The big thing is that neither player has missed any practice time. That’s the best sign they could have asked for about either guy’s health heading into the year. I have no confidence in guessing whether players will get injured this year. Hunter had a bad break last year and missed a ton of games but it’s not like there was some previous history that could have told us he was going to tear a pec. I wish I could give you a pie chart on that but the best I can do is that 100% of you should pray they play 14-plus games.
@headcoach21 As we get closer to the regular season opener what are some positive differences you see from Zimmer to KOC when it comes to managing players and some difficult situations??
Well, KOC hasn’t run into any difficult situations yet. That’s where he’s going to be tested. This is the Vikings, stuff is gonna happen that will feel like the entire world is collapsing and how he manages his way through those things will be telling. The difference in the way they handle player health cannot be understated. It’s not as sexy as saying he’s turned around the culture and he’s Kirk’s BFF so everything will be different but healthy players win games. The best years Zim had were the most healthy on defense, right? I’m not sure whether the yelling/not yelling will matter. Lots of coaches yell and win. I’m not sure if asking for player feedback will matter. I do know that having a full lineup makes a huge difference and it seems the guys they brought in as trainers are working very closely with O’Connell to do it as scientifically as possible.
@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Given the talent there, it seems like we could see a lot of creative usage at the RB position. And with the raving about the fullback from the coaches, do you think we'll see the emergence of the "Hambone" offense?
Maybe once in a while they’ll do something with multiple running backs on the field but this offense is all about the wide receivers. I’d guess that it’s mostly three wide receivers with Dalvin Cook alone in the backfield and then the occasional CJ Ham snap mixes it up. I don’t expect that they’ll be running out Cook and Nwangwu or Chandler at the same time unless it’s for one snap to surprise the opponent. Ideas like that are interesting but you have to remember with Jefferson/Cook/Thielen/Smith Jr./Osborn, you don’t need to get super tricky to be good. I wouldn’t take too many plays away from them.
@Brian_0008 If you had a chance to ask Zygi, Kwesi and KOC 1 yes/no question while they were hooked up to a polygraph and couldn't lie to you, what would be your 1 question to each of them?
What happened with Jim Harbaugh? Why would you bring in Harbaugh and then not make that happen? Did someone make a last-second frantic phone call begging them not to hire him? Did new information come to light in his interview? Everybody on the Michigan side was telling people that it was happening and then it suddenly came to an end. Why?
@OldNorse Based on what you saw would you rather have Trey Lance or 3 first round picks?
I’d rather have Trey Lance on the San Francisco 49ers than three first-round picks. If we were talking about the Chicago Bears or some other team that was severely lacking in talent and was years away, then I’d go with the draft picks. There’s definitely a model for putting rookie QB contract guys on stacked teams that has worked. He’s the latest example and his odds of being good are much better because of that.
@bobh332 Is it too early to buy a pallet of Purple Koolaid?
People should get excited about their sports teams, otherwise, what’s the point?
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