Friday Mailbag: What's Hocken'ing with these contract extensions?

Extensions haven't been signed by two key Vikings players and fans want to know: what's the hold up?

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By Matthew Coller

Alrighty folks, we have rumors, a preseason game and cutdown day. What a time to be alive. Let’s dive into your questions…

@JoeyBrainstorm If you were forced to enter the octagon against any player in NFL history, excluding Brock Lesnar, who would be the last player you'd want to fight?

Historically speaking I would go with Jack Lambert or Lawrence Taylor. I don’t know of anyone who would be meaner than Lambert and he’s already lost his teeth so he doesn’t care about getting hit in the face. Taylor grabbing QBs and whipping them around like rag dolls was terrifying. From players I’ve covered, I’ll go Everson Griffen. I totally understand why so many tackles fell apart against him.

For wrestling fans, I’d be fine with fighting former Viking Roman Reigns. At least I know I’ll be winning until the very last moment when the ref gets knocked out and someone else hits me with a chair.

@J_B_ROSE Who is your “surprise cut” pick from the 53?

Usually when we talk about surprise cuts it’s a player that’s on the older side that we didn’t think would get beat out or a young player we believed still has potential and they bail. I’m not sure how many players land in those categories this year. The older players like Harrison Smith, Harrison Phillips, Dean Lowry and Jordan Hicks don’t fit that description and the 2022 draft class is too young to bail. Kene Nwangwu? But that doesn’t make sense either since he’s a great kick returner and I assume they still want to return kicks even with the new rules. I got nothin’ here.

@billfehlberg Do defensive linemen hold back for full exertion at big moments? It seems like Aaron Donald is always a presence, but when it’s a big 3rd or 4th down play he tosses people around and wins the play himself. Same for Hicks against Bradbury in Bears/Vikings games

I think what you’re talking about here is why you still have to run the ball. On first and second down, defensive tackles have to play run or pass. They have gap assignments in the run game and can’t just commit fully to trying to get a sack. If you never run, they are going to go all out to sack you on early downs too. I’ve heard this criticism of some DTs who get pressures over the years — that they sell out to chase the QB and don’t help with run defense. This is also why coaches emphasize avoiding third-and-long. If you get into a pass-only down, Aaron Donald can gear up and use all the moves he has in his bag.

@headcoach21 If Darrisaw plays all 17 games does he make an all pro team this year??

Might be. There’s some really, really good tackles in the NFL. Trent Williams and Andrew Thomas are probably the two best players at the position in the league and it could be hard to unseat one of them if they are healthy but Darrisaw’s name is going to be right there in the mix. He’s a true franchise tackle.

@dantaylor26 How much of a head start would you need to win a 40 yard dash against Jefferson?

Hm. It seems logical to say that if I run a 6.0 40-yard dash and he runs a 4.5, I’d need to start at wherever he’s at after 1.5 seconds. So that’s about 10 yards. But we have to factor in that he’s going to be going faster in the middle and end than at the start and I’m going to be really slow at the start, I’d guess about 15-20 yards.

If you saw what happened to Kevin Hart (he tried to race a former NFL player and got severely hurt), you’ll know that I’ll never be taking this challenge.

@_kevvbot Often we compare players between eras. People say Lebron wouldn’t be able to handle the NBA in the 90s because of the physicality, and so on. Matthew, can we compare GMs the same way? How would Howie Roseman, or Kwesi, or other GMs do if they were placed in the 70s, 80s, or 90s?

We definitely can’t compare GMs the same way because even if you have all the data and innovations in the world, the quarterback is still going to matter more than any of that. You can use numbers to gameplan, draft the best possible players, spend all of your money the right way and have your players healthy and fresh with sports science and Joe Montana is still going to win if you don’t have a great QB. The other thing is that the GMs had very different jobs prior to free agency and whatever advantage these guys had wouldn’t last long. The rest of the NFL would see the things they did well and copy them within a couple years. Recent example of that was Chip Kelly bursting on the scene and then having everything he did copied and solved.

It’s also really funny when former NBA players say stuff like that. Nobody loves 90s NBA more than me but c’mon.

@pancake_bunny Do you think Kwesi has two plans based on how Kirk performs this year regarding his future with the Vikings and is QB uncertainty the cause of the lack of movement/commitment with extensions for guys like JJ, TJ and Hunter? Does he need that big domino to fall first?

It feels like regardless of the way Cousins plays they are going to let him walk. The thing is, he played really well last year and they didn’t extend him. Aside from an NFC Championship appearance, what more could he do to convince them? I believed Kwesi when he said they can’t project more than two years out and with a mid-30s QB you’re paying for future performance, not past. Would they want to bet he would remain the same or get better? And it doesn’t solve the problem of his cap hits vs. the other players they have to pay on offense. Things seems set up to replace his cap hits with JJ and Darrisaw’s extensions.

One lynchpin to the operation might be how they evaluate the next draft class. If they think there’s nobody to pick, I suppose they could extend him. If you’re Kirk, why are you signing an extension though? His comments this offseason struck me as, “fine with me then.”

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Derek… Hey Matthew, mailbag question for you (apologies if it was mentioned recently). If we were to use the franchise tag on Hockenson for 2024, and then let him leave in free agency the following year, would we be entitled to a compensatory pick in the 2025 draft? Curious if teams are eligible for comp picks if they tagged a player the prior year.

I believe they would still get a comp pick if they tagged him and he left after 2024, yeah. They might see that as a favorable outcome.

@zang100 Have you heard anything on Greedy williams or any other viable corner options

I have not. After they brought in Ron Darby there hasn’t been any more noise about corner. Still, I’m expecting moves to be made next week, whether it’s trades or signing some players who get cut by other teams. I can’t imagine they just sit with this roster in place and that’s definitely a position that could use another body.

@DarrickMoren I've heard that Trishton Jackson has looked good this offseason. So has Powell and Reagor. Who has looked the best and what role would each play on offense?

That position is tough. Jackson makes plays every day but Powell and Reagor are punt returners. With Jalen Nailor back, it feels like they have to pick between the two returners. Keeping Jackson means going with six receivers and I’m not sure if they want to do that. Ideally none of them ever play a role on offense. They sit and watch as the three starters destroy other teams’ souls. Jackson gives some route running and ball tracking and he could probably recreate what someone like Addison does better than Reagor or Powell if they have injuries. Not an easy call.

zimdiggity… Why did we not improve the o line. Kirks success depends on staying clean. Makes zero sense to not improve the worst line in football. To me it’s a fireable offense for GM.

My question is: How were they going to do that? Remember when they had to restructure Cousins just to get cap compliant? Which guards should they have signed?

In what world were they the worst line in football? PFF ranked them 13th overall for the 2022 season, their best ranking since I’ve been covering the team. I know we watch one team closer than the others but if you watch games around the league every Sunday you’ll see offensive linemen getting beaten all over the place. Also having the best tackle duo in the league is really, really important. Cousins was the 11th most pressured QB, only 1.9% above 17th place and he averaged 7.6 YPA, second best in the NFL.

If not having five great offensive linemen was a fireable offense, then 90% of NFL GMs would be fired.

I completely agree that the guard play is a concern and maybe a summer signing would have been a good idea. Again, money matters on the Dalton Risner thing.

Sometimes I get a little flustered by the whole guard thing. This offense is absolutely stacked. Go win games.

Bobby Peters… What has been the focus of the run game in camp? Gap/zone? Under center/gun?

I think it’s going to be very similar to last year with the “mid zone” stuff and not the traditional outside zone. That might be one of the reasons to move on from Dalvin, who was a premier outside zone runner. They are definitely going to have an under-center element with more mixing in big personnel on early downs and when they’re winning — maybe a lot more based on how good Josh Oliver looks. (Also, everyone should follow Bobby’s work. He’s incredibly smart about football and is a terrible self promoter).

@nateseverson Pretend Trey comes to the purple, what does their QB room look like moving forward?

I would assume he’s the third-string QB to start the year and Mullens is the backup and they put Hall on the practice squad if that happens. It would be incredibly hard to get him up to speed on the offense right away. After a few weeks he might be the active backup on gameday if they are happy with how he’s coming along. They would probably hope to get him into a meaningless Week 17 game if that was possible and have him ready to go in case of a complete meltdown to start the season. That would be wild — a 1-5 start, Cousins traded, Lance in at QB. Ya never know in Vikings land.

David…. Who was the surprise of training camp?

Far and away Ivan Pace Jr. I’ve never seen a UDFA do what he’s done. Usually those guys flash a little on special teams and you get the sense there might be something there and two years later they become Anthony Harris or Eric Wilson. This guy was good from Day 1. It seems like he has a really good understanding of the game and he plays like a wolverine. We’ll see how it all translates but it’s been impressive. This is the reason we have the Mr. Mankato award.

Stanley…. If T.J. Hockenson is traded for Trey Lance, would you expect draft picks to also be part of the transaction. If so, what round(s)?

Why is Hockenson getting traded for Trey Lance? Is this like the telephone game for NFL rumors? If they trade for Lance, it’s going to be a mid-round pick going to the 49ers. If Hockenson doesn’t sign an extension, he’s remaining a Viking and they will either let him walk for a comp pick, trade him or franchise tag him.

Jason… Is it better to look at preseason as a way for the coaching staff to work out communication kinks and situational approaches rather than read too much into what the players do?

Since they’re letting assistant coaches call plays by the second half of these games, I’m going to say that preseason games are basically for about 40 players to try out for the practice squad or other teams. It’s better to shield your eyes and not look directly at the preseason football.

I know we cover these games like they’re meaningful — and they are to a handful of dudes fighting for a spot or getting their one chance in a uniform — but it’s clear the coaching staff would rather be golfing. In the old days, they meant something to the coaches and performances got players elevated. It just doesn’t work that way anymore and… oh look… your team is fully healthy going into the season.

Andrew… What do you think of Kirk's facial hair?

Is it nitpicky to say he should have left the mutton chops?

Trevor… Could Justin Jefferson be waiting to sign his contract until after Nick Bosa signs his? To my understanding they both want to be the highest paid non qb. I believe by deadlines Bosa’s has to be determined first. Whereas JJ’s can wait until next year. What are your thought

I don’t know if it directly impacts JJ outside of his side keeping an eye on how Bosa plays out with the strategy he deployed of skipping camp until he got his deal. Jefferson is in position to get everything he wants, which makes it easy to know the ballpark of the deal but difficult to figure out the nuances. Does he want a three-year deal? Or a five-year deal to be the most ever in history? How much fully guaranteed? What other elements does he want to work in? He doesn’t have to take any concessions at this point because he’d holding all the cards and everybody knows it. I’m sure he also knows that the longer he waits, the more the cap goes up and the more big deals that get signed, which only pushes his earning potential up.

Steve … If the Hockenson extension falls through, do you think the Vikings would pivot and try to extend KJ Osborn?

They could choose to let Hockenson walk and extend Osborn, yes. If he ends up with comparable production to someone like Jakobi Meyers and they could keep him at $11-$13 million per year, that’s a great investment and they should do that. The thing is, Osborn would have to want to be retained. If he’s looking to be someone’s WR1 or WR2 (most teams do not have Justin Jefferson, ya know), then it’s possible there’s nothing the Vikings can do to keep him. Once they drafted Jordan Addison, the odds of him being in Minnesota for a long time went down significantly.