Friday mailbag: What are we thinking about the draft now?
After adding Patrick Peterson, are the Vikings still favored to take a corner? That and many more questions from Vikings fans
Happy Friday everyone! Lots of good questions as we wait for the next move and prepare for the draft, so let’s dive in…
@onerealeazye Does 10 wins get us in the playoffs this year? Eagles improved with free agency and have 3 picks in the top 19, Wentz is better than Heinekie, TB, LA, and SF are unchanged, GB, Dallas, and AZ might decline, but are all still 10+win teams…
It appears that 10-7 is the old 9-7, which means that it’s going to be a coin flip if you make the playoffs with that record. At least right now it seems the NFC breaks into three categories: Teams that can reach the Super Bowl (GB, TB, LA, AZ, DAL, SF), teams that have to have things go right to make the playoffs (MN, NO, PHI, WAS, CHI) and teams that seem to have no shot (DET, NYG, ATL, SEA, CAR). There’s enough teams in those last two categories that nine wins might do it. But we are at the point with the seventh seed that if you barely make it to the postseason and don’t pull off an upset in round one, it’s basically like missing the playoffs.
@JD1977SuperBowl Who is one free agent out there we can afford and would be a great fit/need to get this team to the next level?
There’s no single free agent that they’re bringing in at this point that’s getting this team to the next level. There are a few who could make them stronger in weak areas. Someone like Melvin Ingram or Jerry Hughes as rotational pass rushers or Steven Nelson as a depth corner. Maybe if the Ravens don’t bring Calais Campbell back that would be a good signing. A receiver like Will Fuller, Jarvis Landry or Emmanuel Sanders could be an upgrade. So could JC Tretter at center. Those are improving moves, not next-level moves. Maybe one of them happens before camp.
Jeff via email: Regarding female journalists in the locker room, I've read a few posts/columns on this from women reporters, and they all end up at the same place: it's no big deal. Is this a pretty accurate assessment?
Well, kinda. None of these stories happened in Minnesota but… I once got in an altercation with a security guard because he told a woman reporter to “keep her eyes down” as we walked by a locker room. A woman team employee was asked if she was “allowed” to be in the locker room by some security guy. I’ve heard of women reporters getting DMs from players about how they dressed. Harassment of women in sports media isn’t as bad as it used to be but it’s still existent and shouldn’t be tolerated.
@ErikJerold Are you able to provide a breakdown of 2024/2025 cap situation with the recent restructures and void years? Basically, how much of the potential post-Cousins salary cap have we mortgaged to run it back in 2022?
Right now Cousins is set to make $12.5 million in dead cap on a 2024 void year, Adam Thielen’s dead cap hit will be $7 million if he’s released in the 2024 offseason (he’s scheduled to have a $21 million cap hit, so that seems likely). Harrison Smith takes up $7.1 million in dead cap if he’s released at the same time. I forgot about Dalvin Tomlinson’s void years — he’s gonna be a $5 million dead cap hit on a void year in 2024. Danielle Hunter probably has an extension by then but if he somehow doesn’t and gets released, that’s $11.2 million dead cap. Long answer short: Not great.
Matthew via email: with the team implementing an "offense first" philosophy, where would you place the odds of Cousins and the offense devolving into the John DeFilippo Experience? Would Jefferson have made that successful? Appreciate your work, thanks.
Are they implementing an offense-first philosophy? Every dollar they’ve spent except for Jesse Davis has been on the defensive side, which is really confusing. If you mean a pass-first philosophy on offense, I’m not really sure how much different it will be. The Rams passed on 59% of plays last year and the Vikings threw 57% of the time. But I do think that there is a question about putting more on Cousins’ back and whether that’s a diminishing returns issue. It’s actually harder to do it in 2022 than 2018 because Diggs and Thielen were both incredible in 2018. Thielen is still good but he isn’t that player anymore and Jefferson isn’t on a totally different level from Diggs. I do think they could be smarter in a lot of small areas but I’m skeptical of how much those change the bigger picture.
Jeff via email: I am unsure what to think of the other post-Zadarius FA signings and am interested in your thoughts on them
Since Za’Darius they’ve signed Jesse Davis, Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan and Nate Hariston. They’re hoping that Davis can be this year’s Josh Kline, where we get to the end of the year and go, “it wasn’t that bad.” I’m not sure Sullivan is locked in as a starter but he’s a nickel guy with unimpressive past numbers and Hariston is depth/special teams. Peterson was an OK starting corner last year. They’re hoping for that again.
@mattverick One area that I feel doesn't get much discussion is the 4 year contracts for KOC and KAM. Doesn't that mean they have to prove they are winners within first 3 years? But also, couldn't a rookie QB in year 1/2 help them get extensions to develop that rookie QB?
Yes and yes. The four-year contract is very interesting and notable. You almost never see any executive or coach go into a lame duck year, which means by the end of Year 3, it has to look like things are going the right way. If they were to draft a QB this year, they’d have a chance to evaluate that player and decide whether they can be the future QB and get someone else in 2023 if they miss on that pick. If they wait until 2023 to draft a QB, that guy essentially holds the keys to their fate. The short nature of the contract also makes the current direction puzzling because you’d think they would want to get the cap right in Year 1 in order to make big swings by Year 2 and get this train moving in the direction of a legit contender by Year 3. Now they have to straddle both sides and work around expensive players declining while refreshing a bunch of areas. Not impossible but not easy.
@JoeBMTN Who is the best modern day comparison to Thurman Thomas?
If Alvin Kamara played a lot more snaps, that’s probably the closest. Thurman led the NFL in yards from scrimmage for four straight years. Nobody will do that again.
@BradleyPeters13 On a scale of idiotic to moronic how stupid is it to sign a league average cornerback to a $4M contract considering how many are still looking for jobs?
Aggressive. I saw today that they used a void year on Peterson’s contract. That’s baffling, even if it’s only $750K for 2023. He was hardly the only veteran free agent who could have given them average play. I fundamentally don’t have any problem with him staying, but once again they paid above market price. That was a Spielman staple.
@DoctorBitz With O'Connell people expect the offense to do better this year. But, with it being a new system and thus, presumably, new code words for Cousins to learn, could the offense actually take a step back this year? Should there be leeway this year for "learning a new offense?"
I see what you did there with the code words. If you’re looking for a reason the offense could be worse, it probably isn’t because Cousins can’t learn it. He’s had a different OC pretty much every year of his career. The case for a downturn is that Cousins was very good last year. When somebody has a career year at age 33, you can’t always bet on him improving on that. His 88.2 PFF grade was almost four points higher than it’s ever been and he had the highest big-time throw rate of his Viking career and the fewest times sacked. If anything in Cousins’ game drifts back to the mean, you could have a better system and worse results. I’m not predicting the results will be bad, it’s just that sometimes the best laid plans can be blown up by age/regression that nobody expected.
@HeyItsMattyFez Say Kyle Hamilton falls to 12 and you are looking at him and Stingley on the board. Which would you take?
While I do not pretend to be a draft scout, I’d say that if the only reason Kyle Hamilton falls from the top five is because he allegedly ran a bad 40-yard dash at his pro day, then draft him. If he has a similar grade to Stingley, I’ll take the corner. If Hamilton can be a player who transforms your secondary the way peak Harrison Smith or Tyrann Mathieu do, then take Hamilton.
@G3R4LD26 At this point I really don't care about the 2022 season and any excitement I had with a HC and GM change has gone out the window. Can you talk me in to caring about this stale team for the 2022 season? Why do you think good players keep leaving the Gophers WBasketball program?
Sure. It’s football. You never know what’s going to happen. I remember a conversation with my old boss Brad Lane heading into the first Chicago game in 2017 where we decided that we wouldn’t go on the road because the team was going to be irrelevant with Case Keenum playing quarterback. Heck, I was making the case for the Vikings to throw politics to the wind and sign Kaepernick when Sam Bradford got hurt. Who would have ever predicted they’d go 13-3 at that point? You can’t ever look away with the Minnesota Vikings. On the Gophers, that’s life in college sports now. There’s no patience from players with the existence of the portal. But I’ll defend it all day long. I don’t see why anyone should be able to tell you where you’re allowed to go to college. If you want it to be like the pros, sign them to contracts. You wanna keep players? Win.
@weinstock_jake What’s your level of surprise that Kwesi is operating in this win now fashion, since it’s clearly more of an attempt to be “competitive” than it is to “rebuild”? Can we really pin it on ownership? Or perhaps is it more nuanced than that?
I’m very surprised. When they fired Rick Spielman, it seemed to be clear that the reason for his exit was that his direction flopped. But now he keeps hinting that it wasn’t his direction. If Rick had ever mentioned that before, we might have expected this. However, I think we can point toward ownership and also say that Adofo-Mensah took the job knowing the parameters that he had to work within. That’s the game. No excuses. You’re still allowed to make good moves even if the owners are demanding that you remain competitive. The biggest thing that has shocked me is that none of the moves are backed by analytics. They’ve kept and signed guys who either don’t have great under-the-radar numbers or have risks and then they’ve talked about how much the coaches wanted those guys. Where’s the Wall Street part?
@purplenurplepod Name 3 current or former Viking players you are confident Bradbury could block.
Run or pass? Here’s the thing: Bradbury has been the player that they wanted to draft. They knew he was an undersized, short-armed center who could really run block but wouldn’t have a ton of success against large, powerful rushers. It’s like Mike Zimmer asking Cousins to heave it down the field more often. If you wanted an aggressive QB, you shouldn’t have signed Kirk Cousins.
@mourlam720 Why don’t more top picks in the draft tell teams don’t draft me? (Eli Manning) Trevor Lawrence for example going to Jacksonville is like career suicide if you ask me.
If you are good, it won’t be “career suicide.” If Trevor Lawrence is great, the Jags will compete for Super Bowls. Were the Bengals not just the worst franchise in sports like two years ago? Eli said no to the Chargers and then the Chargers won a metric ton of football games with Rivers in the following years. I promise you if the Washington Commanders or the Houston Texans draft a QB and the guy can play, he’ll completely turn around their franchises. The Bills missed the playoffs for 20 YEARS, got a QB, now they’re the Super Bowl favorite.
@SKOL_doctor How do you handle preparing for the draft and learn as much as possible about these prospects? What are some of your “go to” draft podcasts?
It’s a little bit of a lot of things. PFF’s Tailgate podcast with Gayle and Renner is my favorite. Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks are obviously a must-listen. I learn new things from Chris Trapasso every time he’s on the show. I do draft sims and click on the players’ names to get scouting reports. I read Brugler and Edholm. I chat with a bunch of people at the NFL Combine. It’s kind of a full immersion process. Put it all together and by the end of April I’m MC Draft Scout.
@csedwards Scott Mitchell or Steve Bono?
Not even close, Steve Bono. In ‘91 the man goes 5-1 as the 49ers starter filling in for Steve Young (Young only went 5-5 that year) and then at 33 years old, after having basically never started regularly before, Bro-no drops into a mediocre Chiefs offense and goes 13-3 right after Joe Montana retired. How baller is that? His top two receivers on the ‘95 Chiefs were his fullback and tight end and they didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher. Mitchell was good for a single year on one of the most stacked offenses ever in Detroit and then made everyone hate him and stunk. Long live Steve Bono.
@kyleshaner If the draft didn’t exist and instead was replaced by free agency for every player entering the league, would the NFL be better or worse?
If the salary cap still existed, better. It would force teams to put values on these prospects and make smart decisions and put their teams in position to attract the top players — but you couldn’t just sign all of them because of cost. If there was a signing day for all incoming rookies, it would be one of the wildest things in sports. And if you hate tanking, well… this is the only real way to eliminate it.
@RydalViking1 Who’s a possible realistic trade partner later in this years 1st Rd that could get us a 1st next year (giving us ammo for a QB as we’d have 2 then in 2023) ? Would you then go BPA with our picks this year as opposed to need.
I wish I had better news for you on this one but I can’t see anyone trading next year’s first to move up because there isn’t a QB that anybody is going to trade up for like Fields last year. If you’re Pittsburgh at 20, why would you force your way up to take Kenny Pickett when Desmond Ridder is a very similarly talented prospect? Last year the Bears weren’t going to get a great QB prospect without sending a haul. Could the Vikings trade down and get a third like last year? Sure.
@DaDaMan911 I know we like QB TIERS, have you ever done a journeyman back up Tier?!
Of course. Look who you’re talking to here. With journeyman QBs you have your Bridge Starters, Good Career Backups and Never Play Career Backups. The bridge starters are your Chris Chandlers and Ryan Fitzpatricks who can step in and give you a chance to have a good season if the team is decent. Maybe lightning strikes and they go somewhere like the ‘98 Falcons but it’s unlikely. Still, they give you a shot at the playoffs. If the team is bad, at least you can evaluate other plays around them. The Good Career Backups are Case Keenum, my friend Sage Rosenfels, Jacoby Brissett. They are either a shade behind the Bridge Starters in skill or never got the chance to show their talent in a big sample but still did well in fill-in work. The Never Play Career Backups are guys like Matt Barkley who you cannot believe are still in the league. Chase Daniel is the Never Play legend.
@wwrigley26 Possible KAM views the “rebuild” part of CR as purely draft capital? Like we didn’t trade any future draft assets (yet) so we aren’t “win now”. Free agency and contracts w/current players = “competitive”, draft = “rebuild” Ill hang up and listen
He said something to that effect at the owners meetings but…they haven’t acquired draft capital either. If they did, that would have been rebuild-y. It’s not like they really could have afforded to trade picks for star players without completely blowing it up and going crazy. Not being the Rams doesn’t mean they’re low key rebuilding. Adofo-Mensah probably shouldn’t have used the “rebuild” terminology. If he said that their goal is to make the playoffs and give every ounce of their souls to bring a championship to Minnesota, it would have made more sense with the moves and gone over much better with fans. At least they’d know that’s the deal. Everyone just wants to understand the plan, not be confused by mixed messages between what’s been done and what’s been said.
@billfehlberg When Pam inevitably hooked up with art school guy, if Jim hadn’t proposed, would Pam have made art school guy move to Scranton? Possibly made him work at Dunder-Mifflin?
Bill is stoking my distain for Jim and Pam here. The writers were clearly implying that Pam was gonna cheat on Jim the same way she cheated on Roy, right? She’s the worst. But Jim is also the worst because he shouldn’t have told her to give up art school. As a Successful Wife Guy, lemme tell ya, that ain’t the way.
@au_mschmidt First choice = good season, second choice = utter catastrophe. Is that being a bad fan? I don’t want to give up my fandom bc owners are making so many first guess mistakes. Hoping disaster might wake them up
Wanting your team to be closer to winning a championship is not being a bad fan. The way the system is set up simply rewards disaster. The Chargers tried to run it back after a 12-4 season and went 5-11 and then drafted Justin Herbert. Are you a wacko for saying you wouldn’t mind your team winning five games and picking Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? Not at all. Before everyone says it, no, it doesn’t guarantee they would become the Chargers. But right now, run-it-back style has what percentage of getting them to a Super Bowl? Having a bad season and drafting a great QB prospect has what percentage? The latter option is simply higher. (Again, this isn’t me saying they should have tanked this year, just done things with an eye on the future).
@TheBigHerman Seeing how Sullivan tends to be better in a zone scheme that doesn't ask him to make complicated adjustments and Peterson has always been better at man, how would you imagine Donatell will call back coverages. Will he sprinkle in Nate Hairston who is more of a man guy
I’d love to help you out here but I have no idea what they’re going to do in coverage. I think the narrative around Peterson last year was that he’d transition into a zone corner in his latter years. I’m not sure that really happened but teams are doing so many things with match coverages and schemes where zone can look a lot like man that it’s hard to tell. If somebody claims to be able to tell you how it’s going to work next year, they are pretty much making it up unless they played for Ed Donatell or work for Ed Donatell or are actually Ed Donatell.
@jblohse Hey, a pie chart question for you. I think an issue this team has struggled with is quality depth. What % would you give to they are better/the same/worse so far in free agency? And which is the 1 position they need to address to build depth that is a must to compete this year?
I’ll go 0% better, 60% same, 40% worse. If we compare what’s been gained and lost, it’s one for one. They lost quality players like Woods, Barr, Griffen, Pierce and gained quality players in Smith, Hicks, Phillips. They also lost some mediocre players and gained a couple new ones. I can’t see where it’s noticeably better. As far as depth, the obvious answer is the secondary. They shouldn’t feel like Peterson completes that group. Same deal with the D-line. Neither Phillips or Tomlinson is more than a 600-snap guy and both Hunter/Smith have injury histories. You could make a case for more bodies being needed to compete for interior OL spots, another receiver or two, a No. 2 tight end. For goodness sakes is anyone going to compete with Greg Joseph! OK, I take that back he was good last year. Sorry Greg, I got on a roll there.
@headcoach21 When do you think is a good time to judge a QBs win loss record??
Here’s how I view it: Everything is about winning. The QB has more say in wins/losses than everyone else, so you have to view the performance through the lens of whether a performance resulted in wins or not and what factors played into that. This isn’t the QB Rating League or PFF Grade League. You have to determine what needs to happen around a QB in order to win 12+ games and then decide if that’s possible. So far with Kirk Cousins, that hasn’t been possible, even with good defenses in 2018-2019 and good running games every year since 2018 and good receivers and good offensive coordinators in several of his seasons. The analysis doesn’t stop at the W-L stat in the same way it wouldn’t stop at touchdown passes or yards per attempt. But it’s extremely relevant. If your QB can win 10 with a poor supporting cast and tough schedule, that’s way different than needing everything in his favor to win 10. If the goal of winning a Super Bowl didn’t exist, sure, it would be fine to throw out the record. Until then, everything is based on whether you can win with a given QB.
@smccullough5 The front office is obviously making moves to solid the starters but there doesn't appear to be much depth beyond hoping someone will take a big step forward this year. Who are the back ups at each position and which position group is in the best/worst shape?
The depth is dependent on whether some players take a step forward. Right now there isn’t much you can say for the secondary because there aren’t many guys with potential aside from maybe Harrison Hand but at linebacker the Blake Lynch/Troy Dye/Chazz Surratt group might improve. Maybe along the D-line if somebody steps up, they could end up having better depth than we think. Same goes for receiver with Ihmir Smith-Marsette or RB with Kene Nwangwu. On the O-line, it’s not promising. I think Oli Udoh is a fine version of Rashod Hill but there’s still not much to write home about on the interior, even if Wyatt Davis makes strides. Oh, and quarterback has nothing. AND KICKER, WHO IS THE BACKUP KICKER. Sorry, sorry, I’ll calm down.
@tjrheaume What are your thoughts on capitalizing on value of drafting guys recovering from injury? Jameson Williams, David Ojabo, and Booth Jr. all recovering from surgery. Throw Stingley in that mix as well, but all accounts are he is 100% recovered.
I’ve always felt that you’re drafting for the following season. If you look at any of the stats on first-year production, it’s very unreliable whether anyone you pick is going to make a difference right away. Sometimes they do, more often they do not. So pick guys for the future, even if they are hurt now. Williams especially. That guy is the best receiver in the draft. I’m not concerned about waiting until November before he can play if he’s going to be a beast in 2023, 2024, 2025 etc. As long as it’s not a long-term thing, try to get a value pick.
@SexHealthMD Assuming Vikings have top 10 or top 5 offense (which I think is reasonable). Where would the vikes have to rank in the following categories to make playoffs vs win in playoffs vs win the whole kit n kaboodle: 1. Defensive ranking 2. Special teams ranking 3. Penalties 4. Turnovers
I don’t think a top five offense is reasonable. They were 49 points away from being a top-five offense last year — which is like two games worth of extra scoring. They were closer to the 24th ranked offense than No. 1 last year and they have gained exactly Jesse Davis on the roster. That’s a lotta points that we’re assigning to a first-time coach. But to answer your question, let’s say they end up 10th. To be taken seriously in the playoffs, I’d say they have to be in the top 10 on defense, at least average penalties and special teams and lucky with turnovers. If they did pull off a top-five offense, those other things don’t matter that much.
@AES64 Mailbag: what is the explanation for Ngakoue? He was traded from the Vikings because they'd won 1 game, but he performed well. He's 27 today, has consistently good QB pressures, but is on his 5th team in 20 months, which is extremely rare if not actually unique.
I got the sense that he marched to the beat of his own drum. I remember Andre Patterson making a comment about Ngakoue using a pass rush move that was very boom or bust and didn’t really do the whole job of the DE. He might be a guy who wants to get his numbers and his paycheck and that’s that. There are lots of players like that in the league. If you take it to the extreme though, teams aren’t going to keep you around.
@TheWizardofWasz Is there a bubble for WR value? Seems like productive receivers are becoming more and more common but the contracts at the top keep getting bigger.
A lot of smart football folks are saying that’s the case. I’m halfway on that take. I can see where we keep having these great draft classes that produce monster receivers and suddenly there’s more supply than demand and the price sinks. I don’t think that makes them like running backs though. The great ones are extremely valuable and there will always be teams like the Dolphins that set up their salary cap to be able to take on and pay an elite receiver. The Chiefs were smart to let Hill go, get picks and let Mahomes make other receivers better but I wouldn’t try to apply that theory to lots of teams.
@hillman_chad Let’s say they’re right and it’s all Zims fault. Can Kirk win 4 straight games against winning teams under immense pressure in the playoffs? If yes, how?
I mean…I’m about the facts and I don’t have any facts to tell you that it’s possible other than saying that Jared Goff reached the Super Bowl and he’s a less accurate version of Cousins. He was also on a rookie deal at the time so…
@GriffRobMike Do you think KOC will try to use ISM the same way the Rams used Van Jefferson last year?
Smith-Marsette has to show that he can be used. It’s that simple. He has some raw talent but O’Connell isn’t going to be any different than any previous coach in requiring players to have the details right in order to be on the field. I’m all for finding ways to use guys to their strengths but it’s not like ISM is Cordarrelle. If it clicks for him, we could definitely see a rotating role.
@RydalViking1 Is all this talk of the IOL being set at just a pre draft tactic to draw attention away from what they actually think as they may well target that position…..or is it a continuation of their misguided honesty ?
Smoke Screen Season! Misguided Honesty was my alt rock band. Yeah I don’t know. I could see it both ways. They might want a shot with Bradbury while he’s in the final year of his rookie deal just to see if there’s anything there or they might have decided they’re drafting Linderbaum and don’t want anyone to know. I don’t see it as a smart play to take a lineman in the first round and drafting Bradbury’s immediate replacement past the first might not be easy. I’d guess right now that they’re running out a Cleveland-Bradbury-J. Davis interior OL in Week 1.
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