By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! Well, it’s never boring here in Vikings land so let’s dive into it…
Jake J… Why would they announce today that Wentz will start? I would imagine the defensive game plan for the Bills would be different between Wentz and Murray due to Murray’s rushing threat. Isn’t it a better strategy to keep them guessing until game day instead of telling them now?
I’m guessing it would become pretty obvious to the Bills when Murray didn’t practice that Wentz was going to be the QB but I suppose they could have used some old-school gamesmanship if they wanted to do that.
That reminds me of a story. In 2016, Mike Zimmer got really ticked when it was reported in Week 2 that Sam Bradford was going to make his first start vs. the Packers at US Bank Stadium. He didn’t want Green Bay to know that Bradford was going to be the guy over Shaun Hill. On Thursday of that week, we talked to Mike McCarthy on a conference call and he said, “yeah, we’re preparing for Sam Bradford.”
So it’s not like the other team is just lost in the dark over there. If Murray didn’t practice today or tomorrow, they’d be 100% sure that he was not going to start.
Sean… I have always understood why your stance on Kyler being the best option makes sense. However, it seems like KOC is unwilling to adapt to his strengths as a player and would prefer to force him to play within the confines of his ideal QB. So at what point does the analysis need to shift into the situation at hand vs what the player is capable in a vacuum? Secondly, how long will KOC be allowed to use the excuse that the offense works? 2022 Jefferson and 2024 Sam seem like light years ago. Is the check coming due for KOC’s lack of recent results and that’s why we haven’t seen a big trade for an RB or QB?
I’ve always said that my opinions are going to be shaped by data. That means the data in terms of past performance statistics, PFF grades, EPAs and all that good stuff but also the data inputs that aren’t numbers. That means opinions of analysts, quotes from coaches/teammates, decisions the team makes, what I see in practice etc.
But that doesn’t mean that it always turns out the way I expect. There was always a chance that Murray wouldn’t fit with KOC or that Murray would have his up and down stretches (that I reported on extensively and I have the charts to prove it) and that everything would come apart. The hard thing about evaluating him is that he could potentially get hot and put together a really great stretch if he ever gets the chance. That’s his history.
The diagnosis comes down to more than just Murray not fitting in the offense. Murray having his lowest career “on-target” percentage is surprising. There are a lot more easy misses than I ever would have expected based on the data. Also, if you can’t run and end up in third-and-long (as I reported on extensively in the offseason), Murray is not built to play third-and-long constantly. He’s not Joe Burrow.
For some reason, people ignored when I talked about Murray’s weaknesses and accused me of loving Murray with every ounce of my DNA but I suppose those folks are disingenuous or illiterate. Not my problem.
Anyway, to your question about KOC, it’s definitely become a referendum on his offense. The smoking gun for me is the sacks. Murray’s career sack rate is 6.3% and this year it’s 8.8%. That says to me that he’s not seeing what he’s asked to see in this offense and it’s clearly impacting him.
The weird thing about Murray’s season so far, however, is that he’s 4-1 as a starter and PFF has him as the 19th best QB in the league and he’s fourth best in Turnover-Worthy Play rate. Ya know who that’s almost exactly like? 2025 Bo Nix with Denver.
I used to say that with Kirk Cousins it was never as bad as it felt when things were going bad and never as good as it looked when things were going good. That’s probably true of Murray as well but I’m not sure what’s going to happen next. But whatever does happen will define the 2026 season and KOC’s tenure in a lot of ways.
Derrick K… Late in the third quarter on third and 4, Murray completed a 5 yard pass to Jauan Jennings. It was an easy conversion. Why don’t we see this more often? I see this working all across the league.
I’m glad you mentioned across the league. Murray is 32nd in the percentage of passes that go between 0-9 yards. You’d think that all the best QBs push it downfield and to intermediate areas but…
Matthew Stafford is third, Joe Burrow 9th, Dak Prescott 10th, Jordan Love 14th, Kirk Cousins 15th, Jared Goff 18th, Caleb Williams 20th…
KOC has actually drawn up a lot of good stuff in that area of the field and the pass-catching TEs have done a great job. I’m not sure why we don’t see more of it. That’s been my biggest confusion with the offense.
All the undersized QBs pretty much live on quick game and deep shots unless you’re Drew Brees or Brock Purdy.
That doesn’t mean it’s not on Kyler, it just means that the thing he does the best is not something that’s happening the most.
Anglo Vike…Wentz named as starter for Monday night, so how much pressure will there be on KOC if Carson actually gets the offense rolling as we were told it would? If they put a decent amount of points on the board then could be hard to justify putting Murray back in.
I said recently that my benchmark for the team was their reaction after their first loss and how they hang with Buffalo - looks like I get that with one game then
Certainly there is a ton of pressure on KOC. You can’t be an offensive head coach and go 26 games without getting to 400 yards of total offense and not be feeling like the walls are closing in, even if you are 6-1. If they can’t do something against Buffalo’s terrible pass defense, I’m not sure who they’ll be able to perform against the rest of the way. That’s really what’s so concerning is that The Colts and Lions don’t have good defenses and yet they struggled mightily.
I don’t think we can say that if Wentz has a good night on Monday that we’ve seen the last of Kyler for certain because last year Wentz only made it through five games and I’m not sure his performance over the last five years of his career suggests that he can consistently elevate the offense for 10 weeks.
In my mind the best-case scenario would be if Wentz went 1-1 over the next two weeks and Murray returned against the 49ers and got back on track to where he was against the Saints. Unless they trade for Kirk or Justin Herbert or whatever, the highest upside remains the guy who has been a top-15 QB before.
Chris C… What are your thoughts on Fries beyond this season? Do you think it’s a scenario where we cut him in the off season?
Knowing this type of stuff doesn’t happen but what are your thoughts on trading Addison for Taylor close to straight up? I like the idea of using the money at the RB spot and saving the second round pick plus to take another wr and not have to pay Addison. I think that helps both this year and beyond and we seem to be better at drafting wr than we do RB lately albeit prior to Teasley.
This is very likely Fries’ last year in purple because of the way his contract is set up. His cap hit jumps up to $21 million but they can save $9.5 million by moving on and $17.5 million if they do it post-June 1. If his performance was top notch, they’d be trying to figure out a way to make it work with him and maybe restructuring the deal but he’s 32nd of 54 starting guards by PFF grade. Not as terrible as the internet would make you think on gameday but not a $21 million guard.
In terms of the Addison for Taylor deal, the Colts should be in full teardown mode. Take it all the way down to the studs and build through the draft. I’m not sure they’d be looking to take on anyone that is going to be expensive soon.
Not to mention that Addison is still a good receiver and Taylor is an older running back. I’d rather take my chances as Addison either being re-signed long term or being traded in the offseason for draft capital.
Patrick G…. How the hell did we get to Justin might force his way out after 1 loss and still leading the conference? I know the offense is struggling, and I’m really perplexed the close loss to Detroit hasn’t put more of a sense of urgency to do something and not squander the season. Tony pollard and Quentin Nelson would have made a huge impact for a day 2 and 2 day 3 picks. Pollard looks to be owed about $3.5m in salary and bonuses for the rest of the year
A couple reasons: Jefferson’s contract sets up for him to sign an extension. If he doesn’t want to sign that extension, they need to trade him. Also he’s had three games since Week 17 of 2024 with 100 yards. That’s preposterous for a guy who averaged 96 per game. If this keeps up, he’s out. I don’t see any way he agrees to more of this.
Deadlines make deals. So if it’s going to happen with Teasley making deals, he’s going to do it next Tuesday. Personally, I was very much in on Quentin Nelson. I think Landon Dickerson is maybe a longshot possibility.
It really feels like whether the moves are extreme or not is going to be impacted by how things look against Buffalo. There’s a huge difference between a 7-1 team coming off a win over a Super Bowl favorite and a 6-2 team that ranks dead last in everything on offense.
IceColdNorth… Does the lack of movement on the trade front feel like a “sink or swim” message to KOC from Vikings ownership/leadership?
I don’t think we can say that yet because the deadline isn’t up. Sometimes teams hold out hope for ridiculous return on their players and then when they reach the final day they end up giving in because they have no other choice. So we’ll see.
But if they fall to 6-2, struggle on offense again and end up not making any moves, I won’t be surprised. I’m not sure that it would be as much of a message as it would be a consolation that it’s not a great idea to be selling off the future for a team that doesn’t have the markers of a Super Bowl champ.
I do expect them to do something, by the way. It’s just to what degree. A blocking TE or a serious play at large improvement.
Drew…. what happened to Jay Ward?
Partly Harrison Smith happened to Jay Ward. If he was going to be a rotational safety to mix and match depending on personnel matchups, then that went out the window when No. 22 came back. His skillset isn’t the same as Theo Jackson, so you can’t exactly put him in that deep safety type role. He’s much more of a Josh Metellus thumper inside the box and that role is taken by Josh Metellus.
They should be able to trust him to handle that in a pinch if Jackson is out but I wonder if we actually end up seeing Jacob Thomas get some run. He’s mixed in more than Ward with 30 snaps this year.
Ramsey K…. Since there’s a ton of (understandable) doom and gloom about the QB position relative to our playoff strength, I’m going to ask a more out of left field question: Should quarterbacks be exempt from the NFL draft and become Free Agents when they declare? There are so many examples of highly drafted QBs that are brought in (Ward being the most recent example) that just can’t fix everything around them or needing a generational coach (Williams) being hired to fix it. Everyone else stays in the draft, but QBs can sign to the team they believe will be their likeliest to maximize their development? It increases the likelihood of more QB talent around the league, and helps the weaker teams gain parity as they can potentially draft a Jeremiah Smith type 1 overall and pair them with a QB...
I’ve always had this idea about teams being allotted salary cap space to spend on college players rather than the draft. It would be even crazier than the draft if it all happened in one day. But obviously that’s not going to happen.
The really good No. 1 overall picks at QB will eventually get there like Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence. Even Bryce Young is starting to get it together and play better now that his franchise is more competent and they got him a couple receivers. The problem is really the rookie QB contract pressure that every team faces. For truly awful franchises, by the time you’ve developed the guy and he’s ready to win, you’ve gotta pay him a bunch of money and make things harder on yourself.
Also look at how quickly things turn around. The Raiders picked No. 1, they are competent now. The Bears and Lions both tanked and got much better within two years. The Patriots tanked and got to the Super Bowl in Year 2 of Drake Maye.
Florian K… The Viking have an 8 year vet QB who, after 7 games, can’t get the ball out to one of the best WRs in the game while playing the soft part of their season. 6-1 is certainly good and it’s hard to win in the NFL but it seems we hear something to the effect of “This game should show us who they are” each week. Is it possible the light comes on? I’m Mr Homer over here since the days of Joe Kapp but I have serious doubts.
Your doubts are justified.
It’s frustrating to me because I’ve struggled so much to figure it out. The way Kyler played against the Saints was exactly how I expected this thing to look. At that point, I was like, “ah, there it is.” My assumption was that in the following weeks that he’s really get on a roll and the offense would start to “ascend” as they said many times. That did not happen at all and it’s legitimately shocking because of the defenses they played.
The same thing exists for this week against the Bills. Every bit of evidence about Buffalo’s defense says that this should be a chance to get going. Will they? Who knows. They just haven’t had the answers in so long. And if they do, will it be sustainable when they play Green Bay and San Francisco?
Skol Viking 44… More pie chart time: How much do you attribute this season’s offensive struggles to:
1) QB
2) Playsheet is too complex
3) Defenses have caught on to KOC’s schemes
I think you need a fourth option of “where is the run game?”
Did anyone think if the Vikings had darn near the worst run game in the NFL that Kyler Murray was going to lead them to a top-notch offense alone? I sure didn’t. Did anyone think that if he was in third-and-long all day that it was going to be fine? Not me. That was part of the equation.
I think the QB has been probably 40% of the problem, the reads not being conducive to his skillset and causing hesitation has been 30% of the problem and the other 30% has been that he’s rarely been in favorable circumstances all year.
I’m not really sure about defenses catching on but I do know that they are changing post-snap looks like crazy and if that causes even a 0.5 second hesitation from the QB that a lot of this stuff doesn’t work.
Just like anything else, it’s never one thing.
Yelnats… This armchair QB sees evidence that Kyler is not earning his $1.3M salary. He may have been injured in the second half, but he stood there with Dan Marino’s legs and looked like a deer caught in headlights. KOC has enough experience to know what Kyler can do, simply call the plays he can execute. He excels at 0-9 yard passes! The Vikings ran a QB option right that was successful against the Colts, why wasn’t it used against Detroit? I am too old to see a world-class defense wasted.
Well, hang on now. Murray is PFF’s 19th best QB and 4th best in Turnover Worthy Play rate and he’s run successfully and led them to four wins in five games. He’s basically the exact argument for why Kirk didn’t work here. He hasn’t been as good as Kirk was and yet the team is really, really strong and they’ve been able to win despite him playing poorly overall. That’s worth $1.3 million. He’s played much closer to a backup QB thus far than a starter but he’s given them plays to win against Miami, New Orleans and Indy (again, even if it was ugly).
He’s basically playing like Bo Nix, not Jaren Hall.
In terms of your critiques, I’m with you. The thing I don’t understand is that KOC has some really good concepts in the 0-9 range. He is using motions and pre-snap deception to get guys open and Kyler has been great throwing to TJ Hockenson and Gavin Bartholomew. Leaning into that makes a lot of sense.
I’m workshopping a theory that I feel like fits pretty well.
When the Vikings have been down players or backed into a corner and KOC has had to do something to pare down the offense, they’ve been much better because they aren’t trying to do too much. Think 2025 Cleveland with Wentz, Detroit with McCarthy’s return or the “dumbed down” 2025 offense. This year the best games were when Wentz came off the bench or they were missing Jefferson vs. Miami or missing Addison/Hockenson vs. New Orleans.
This might even go back to the Josh Dobbs games.
Just a theory but I’m really starting to wonder if they are better when they’re trying to make it easy on the QB.