Friday mailbag: Waiver watching, O-line and new contracts
Vikings fans want to know what's left before the regular season starts
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone! We’ve got preseason action tonight and then… it’s on to cutdowns and season previews and then we’re off. Let’s see what’s on everyone’s mind as we head down the final stretch…
@IvanCarter9 Which single offensive linemen can help themselves the most in this final preseason game?
It has to be Wyatt Davis. Even if there isn’t an ongoing competition for the right guard spot at the moment, the coaches have to be able to trust him in order to be the direct backup to Oli Udoh. He’s graded well by PFF in both games but something seems to be missing. Every time we talk with coaches about his progression, there’s hesitancy to say they’re thrilled with what they’ve seen. If he has a great game, maybe it helps his cause. Davis is a good example of how the coaches usually give indications about where players stand and we factor those comments with playing time and the numbers.
@RalphVixCPA While playing the Vikes on madden 22, Do i play out Cousins contract or trade him and take the salary cap hit?
If the Vikings trade Cousins after this year, they take on a $10 million cap hit, if I’m reading OverTheCap.com correctly. That wouldn’t be enough to hold them up from making a trade. What’s interesting to think about is the different potential outcomes for the season and how that might impact trade scenarios. If he’s good but they lose in the first round, does that mean they’d get something like Alex Smith brought back in return after 2017? That was a player and third-round pick and Washington extended Smith. I don’t think the Vikings would have to give away draft picks like the Goff/Stafford trade because Goff’s deal was longer term. Maybe there would have to be something worked in about how he plays like the Wentz deal? Or if Cousins doesn’t play well this year, would they have to send picks the other way or are QBs just too valuable? Lots of possibilities.
That’s in real life. On Madden, get Seneca Wallace and run around like crazy.
@alstrain This is really going to test your Buffalo roots. If prime Thurman Thomas is playing in today’s NFL, where does he fit on the RB power rankings. Is he ahead of Cook? Kamara? CMC?
To me, Thurman is one of the two or three greatest all-around running backs to ever play. Walter Payton might be the only one you’d say is clearly ahead. Thurm led the NFL in all-purpose yards for four straight years. That will never be done again. He averaged over 10 yards per reception for five straight years. We never see that with running backs. He could go downfield out of the slot, pass block, score at the goal line. Anything. And think about the workload. He’d have 350 touches in the regular season and then play between 2-4 playoff games every year. There’s a lot of good all-around players in the NFL today but nobody is Thurman Thomas.
@youvikethat1 How good is Kirk at going through his progressions compared to other starting QBs? I remember watching camp a few years ago that Kirk locks on to his first read, especially in the red zone or under stressful situations.
This is the great part of covering football in 2021: I can actually give you an answer that is based on something quantifiable. Former NFL QB Bruce Gradkowski does the QB numbers for PFF, so they’ve been able to add stats like how a quarterback performs after the first read. Cousins throws to his first read 70% of the time, which is 1% higher than average. When throwing to his next read, his EPA/play is right about average and his average depth of target is lower than average. He checks down only 1% more than the league average. Now the thing we have to add is that he holds the ball longer than the average QB so maybe we speculate that he sticks with that first option a little bit longer than some QBs but otherwise it’s mostly average.
I’m not saying the “goes through reads” thing is overrated but 67% of Tom Brady’s throws are on first read, according to the PFF QB Annual. He just destroys everyone on those by making the right first decision and throwing the old pigskin really, really well.
@LfcMay Being a realist as a Vikings fan puts me in the minority. To me, this team is nowhere near super bowl contenders and in order to get there I think we need higher draft picks and less cap space used on a low ceiling QB. Talk me into why tanking would be bad for the long term?
I don’t think being realistic puts you in the minority. There are some folks who are a living, breathing NOTHING TO SEE HERE meme but since I moved here in 2016, I’ve found Vikings fans to usually be more fatalistic than anything. Far more people assume the kicker will undo a great season than believe the Lombardi trophy is going to be rolling through downtown. Anyway, that aside, tanking wouldn’t make a whole lotta sense for this year because it just wouldn’t work well enough. Are you sitting Justin Jefferson and Eric Kendricks and paying Kirk Cousins a ton of money to sit on the bench? You’d be better off trying to win and seeing how it goes and then making changes. Last year, however, at 1-5 they were in the driver’s seat to get a high pick and could have gotten there by sitting Cousins or tearing the thing down. They kept players around to help them beat Jacksonville and Carolina. Is there anyone who wouldn’t trade those wins for the high pick now?
@TheWizardofWasz Could having a not great kicker be a good thing? Just incentivize going for it more and settling for field goals less.
I love the Galaxy Brain here but I don’t think that’s how it will play out. Even as much as Dan Bailey was struggling last year, they didn’t start going for it on fourth down like mad. I will say that I don’t think Zimmer’s fourth down decisions have been problematic. He’s pretty aggressive overall.
@benjackson0812 With the Griffen signing does it feel like Zimmer and Spleiman are setting Cousins up as the scapegoat if things go bad this year??
The Everson more feels more like desperation to have a really good defense than anything. They might think: Who cares about the QB’s feelings when he isn’t locked in as our long-term guy. Plus they probably know the offense has a ceiling even with the talent level of the weapons.
The emphasis on the vax might be some of that from Zimmer. He may be trying to make it clear that if they go 7-10 because Cousins misses a few games with a close contact, it wasn’t for lack of try to get the QB vaxed. But the bottom line is that on the day Cousins was signed they all said it was a unanimous decision — even if that wasn’t true, it’s hard to see how they would get another QB change if this year goes really poorly. If they’re 10-7, maybe that’s a different conversation.
@vikings_cg Can you explain the waiver process? Sometimes you see players get claimed the next day where as we haven’t heard anything in regards to Kamal Martin, Eddie Piniero, etc for multiple days. Thanks!
Yeah, teams have 24 hours to claim somebody that’s been waived. If you didn’t hear anything for a few days, it means they’re a free agent. Usually teams don’t claim players because they can sign them cheaper after they clear. Teams also might want to have a look at their own guys in the next preseason game or something before making a final decision.
@vikings_cg Can you give a brief update on how Purple Insider is doing? Better than you expected when you were thinking about starting it? Love the content.
Thank you! Purple Insider is going better than I ever would have expected. It’s become a functioning business with contracts and contractors and accountants and lawyers and all that stuff that I had no idea (and still only mildly have some idea) of how to manage. The best part has been the sheer number of people who have interacted with the site and podcast, whether it’s in the comment section or over email/Twitter etc. It feels much more like I’m part of a community now than when I was doing sports talk radio. I’m thankful every day to have been able to continue to do the job that I love in the place that I always want to live.
@OldNorse Weakest link group on defense? DL, LB, CB or safeties?
Depends on if we’re talking healthy or not healthy. I think it has a chance to be the cornerbacks. That really rests on how Patrick Peterson plays. If they have injuries, it’s the linebackers or safeties. Nick Vigil can hold the fort down if Anthony Barr is out but beyond him, there’s a ton of uncertainty. I wouldn’t be surprised if they sign someone like Will Parks as a backup safety because Cam Bynum isn’t experienced and nobody else has stepped up.
@RobDN1 Why hasn’t O’Neil gotten a new contract yet and why wasn’t the Hitman extended (to drop his cap hit)?
I’m not quite sure why those things haven’t happened yet. Last year Dalvin Cook didn’t sign until right before the beginning of the season but I did expect them to come earlier. Possible that the RT signings elsewhere threw things off with O’Neill. Harder to say with Smith. I’ve wondered if he wants to wait and see how all of this plays out before deciding to stay.
Thomas via email: There seems to be little talk or speculation about new contracts for O’Neill and Smith. Meanwhile new contracts for right tackle and safety have gone through the roof elsewhere. Any predictions?
I’ll predict that they both have new deals by Week 1. O’Neill signs for five years, $75 million with $40 million guaranteed and Smith signs for three years, $45 million with $25 million guaranteed. This team always seems to find a way to get the deals done.
@tad_fundermann It is week 17 and the Vikings secure a division championship with a win over the Packers. What are the 2 or 3 big things that need to happen this season for that outcome to come true and not be just a giant pipe dream of mine?
Health is A1. If you turned injuries off on Madden, this team would be one of the better rosters in the NFL. You’d need Klint Kubiak to instantly be a very good play caller and gameday OC and all the new defensive players to jell quickly and get off to a fast start. I don’t know if this is a team that could overcome 0-2, even with 15 more games to go. They’re fragile but not without the talent to go somewhere.
@leo_olson5 We’ve brought 4 former Vikings back to the team this offseason. Does that say something about the organization/culture? Does it say something about the front office/coaching staff wanting to be loyal to “their guys” or unwillingness to take a risk on more unknown commodities?
That’s a great question. Of course they’ll tell you that it’s about the excellence of the organization. There’s probably some part that’s about feeling wanted and being able to predict what you’re going to get with Zimmer. There’s a more cynical viewpoint that maybe they’re the only ones who would pay X dollars for certain guys. We also watch every move this team makes — I’m not sure it’s super different here than other quality organizations.
@eleysium Do you think Leslie Frazier will get another head coaching gig?
I don’t think he will. If Buffalo wins, it’ll be Daboll who gets all of the attention because that means Josh Allen will have been great. Frazier is also a really nice person and might be a better fit as a coordinator.
@___Peter_Man___ What’s the scoop on Nate Stanley? Is he not good enough for preseason reps or keeping him hidden to put on practice squad?
He was on the COVID list and then hurt, which is why he hasn’t played in any of the preseason games. I thought they might cut him before Danny Etling. Maybe he’ll end up on the practice squad because he knows the offense but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s just let go. I can’t see any argument that he has some type of high ceiling or anything like that.
@JoshuaR_Smith I can't imagine Zimmer will go into this make-or-break season for himself with unproven/inept Browning/Mond behind unvaxxed Cousins. So, look into your crystal ball (or maybe just guess) and tell us who are the most likely QB cuts that could wind up in purple before Week 1?
The one I’ve brought up a few times is CJ Beathard. He’s had a great preseason, comes from a similar system and has no place in Jacksonville. I could see Nick Mullens ending up here or Sean Mannion returning or Trevor Siemian dropping by or maybe Matt Barkley gets cut by the Titans. If you wanna get super ironic, Nick Foles.
They might just look at the options and decide to roll the dice since none of these backups are particularly appealing.
@GeofftheJohnson Andre Patterson seems enormously well regarded as a coach (and has had a lot of success). He seems a bit more "out there" in the press of late, even though he's "only" the co-defensive coordinator (which, I think, is wrong/messed up). Does he deserve more talk as a possible HC?
Yeah, defensive coordinators talk weekly, so he’s had more opportunity at the podium than he was the D-line coach. If they have a top five defense, it’s remotely possible but still hard to see. George Edwards didn’t get any buzz after being the DC for the No. 1 defense in 2017, partly because it’s Mike Zimmer calling the plays. There’s also the other element that teams are looking for progressive offensive coaches these days — that hurts the older defensive HC candidates.
@BIG_dannn George Paton was highly ranked as a top GM already in a new nfl agent survey for the athletic.what’s you’re grades for Paton vs spielman for this offseason ? Also, would the Vikings have been better with Stefanski and Paton combo vs Zim and Spielman?
Saw that. Kind of an odd thing to put a GM who’s in his first year in that conversation but everything I’ve heard about Paton has been good. He didn’t interact with us at all as AGM and even joked about that when he did a press conference when the Broncos were here. I think in a Stefanski-Paton world, we’re looking at the team taking a different direction. There might have been a little more long term thinking and focus on making the most efficient moves because they would have been under far less pressure. They probably would have been more together on an analytics-driven approach. Would it be better? Well…I guess we have to see how it goes this year. The Broncos already may have screwed up by passing on Fields. Stefanski is the real deal as a head coach though.
@CatAnneBird How upset should we be about passing on Jones? Since the CBA limited practice time and therefore reps in 2011—which matters for immobile guys as they win by being smarter than everyone—the best immobile QB to be drafted has been either Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins.
Well, Nick Foles, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo went to Super Bowls without being mobile because their teams had QBs on rookie contracts. Baker Mayfield isn’t particularly mobile. Neither is Ryan Tannehill. Justin Herbert isn’t really a runner. Didn’t he win Rookie of the Year with no preseason or OTAs or minicamp last year?
Don’t get me wrong, extending plays and running are important skills and I think it matters more in the long run if you want a QB to be a 10-year guy but if Jones can get the ball out quickly, be accurate on intermediate throws, hit downfield shots from time to time and execute the Patriots’ scheme, they have a chance to win a lot because they can pour money into whatever weaknesses they have on the rest of the roster. If Jones had started here in 2022 with Jefferson/Thielen/Cook and a QB-friendly system and then they stacked up the roster even more with that cap space, he’d have a pretty good chance to take this team somewhere without being super mobile.
Also — any time you’re not set with the future QB and passing on good QB prospects, it’s a mistake. See the Panthers and Broncos, too. So, yeah, at this point, there’s plenty of reason to be worried that they’ll have passed on a very good QB because they needed a tackle right away.
Oh and Jones is a 72nd percentile athlete based on pro day scores, per Relative Athletic Scores.
@vikesfan1930 What positions do you think the Vikings will want to "beef up" after the last round of cuts ? Thinking OL, LB, QB ( Back up)? Do you think they trade for Drew Lock ?
I’d be shocked if the Broncos trade Drew Lock. As you’re seeing here, good backups are hard to find. Backup safety stands out as a thing they should really address. I think linebacker is a tough spot to teach someone quickly but that’s plausible. Backup QB definitely. Throw kicker in there. We always do hardcore breakdowns of cutdown day (and we will again!) but things usually change in the days after. This year we could see a lot of that.
@bigbadragz Is oli winning the guard spot by default or has he truly looked impressive in camp?
It’s by default in the way that they didn’t sign Joe Thuney and they seemed to figure out quickly that Wyatt Davis wasn’t ready but he does have some pretty unique physical ability. He has impressive quickness for a guy his size. Udoh ran a 5.05 40-yard dash at 323 pounds at the Combine. They like that part of his game and it shows up in practice. He appears to have a chance to be pretty good with pass blocking. The adjustment is just so hard to judge in camp and preseason. The amount of stunts, twists, blitzes and players with outrageously good pass rush skills doesn’t show up in 15 preseason snaps.
@CoachE_8 Why are we not using our 13million. We have obvious holes in the roster and there are some solid players out there that can fill them.
That’s what I couldn’t quite understand about Mike Zimmer’s “monetary” comment about getting another backup QB. Maybe he meant trading draft picks? If Barr is out for any amount of time, maybe they’d call KJ Wright. There aren’t too many other guys on the market that could have an impact after signing Griffen. Maybe they’re saving some space to fit an O’Neill extension in.
@Jeffcn16 Hope to be wrong but this Barr injury has the feel like it could for awhile. Who do see getting the job if Barr can't go? Or maybe an addition or a camp cut pickup?
It feels like they’re quite nervous about it. I could see them adding someone but that’s not really easy to do at this point. There’s already a shortage of good linebackers and then you have to train the new guy on the entire defense. The plus is that Nick Vigil has been a full-time player before. The downside is not having many players they can count on if he or Eric Kendricks gets banged up. Over even a portion of the season, missing Barr would be a big problem.
@AlexJohnsonFry1 How many games do we lose because of special teams? Alternatively, how many teams have a worse special teams unit than us? Are we actually bad or just pessimistic vikings fans complaining?
I’m going to go with not many. I’m not sure they actually lost any games because of special teams last year. Yes, Dan Bailey missed field goals in Tampa Bay but the offense also couldn’t produce touchdowns, so I’m not sure they beat Brady anyway. Whoever is kicking will likely be better than dead last and the coverage units will be better with some more experienced players. Last year it was basically all newbies.
@dcaron28 Compare/contrast Kirk Cousins vs Jay Cutler
Total opposites in their style, yet similar in a big-picture sense. Cutler was reckless, where Cousins won’t throw into coverage often. Both are very talented and good enough to be franchise QBs but are flawed enough that any weaknesses in the roster or coaching end up being costly. Neither has a personality that the team is going to rally around.
Jeff via email is Dede Westbrook going to be like all the other 3rd WRs on this roster since J Wright left and completely disappoint in 2021? Why hasn’t the fact that he caught only ONE ball in 2020 getting more press? He got injured in OCT…..what’s up with this lack of production??!!
Based on recent history — Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Aldrick Robinson, Josh Doctson, Jordan Taylor, Tajae Sharpe — I can’t tell you that Westbrook will be much different. It does seem that they had a general sense for when he was going to be able to get up to speed and planned on that from the outset. Westbrook does have two solid seasons to his name so if he can even contribute a little more than the aforementioned players and be Jarius Wright-ish, that would be an upgrade.
As far as this cursed WR3 position goes, it’s a combo between the style of offense they want to run and getting what they paid for. If the whole league decided those guys weren’t worth more than a $1 million contract, the odds of it working out swimmingly are pretty low. They also play a lot of 2TE sets and look for personnel advantages on early downs. That’s a pretty good strategy but if you’re short a star receiver, it makes life pretty rough. We might not have a sense for how this one’s going to work until midway through the year.
@PalpatinesRobes Will Greg Joseph be the kicker for the Vikings on week one of the season? More importantly, will Joseph be the kicker after the bye on week seven?
I’ll say… I have no idea. I think it’s 50-50. I’ve always felt they were going to look for someone else after cutdown day but if Joseph crushes it against KC, maybe he has a chance to stick. He’s got a good enough history to say he could kick for the whole year but this team has zero patience with kickers. So your guess is as good as mine.
@mourlam720 Was Parks and Recreation a better show than The Office?
The peaks of The Office are so funny you can hurt yourself laughing. There are flat-out unbelievably hilarious episodes that are timeless and Season 2 as a whole is classic. But Parks ‘n Rec is just a stronger show from Season 2 to the second-to-last season. It has actual story arcs and character development that doesn’t exist in The Office. There’s underlying commentary that’s pretty clever rather than just gag after gag. Every character gets better in Parks as it goes along, where as they all get worse and become parodies of themselves in The Office. Also Jim and Pam are bad, directionless people who are not funny.
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About Viking fans being fatalistic.....To paraphrase Pink Floyd..... We are hanging on in quiet desperation.
I was wondering if Zimmer's "monetary" mark was another oblique shot at Kirk? That is, pointing out how much of the team's resources were already invested in the QB position.