Friday Mailbag: Vikings-Rams (in Arizona)

Vikings fans are interested in how they will approach the Rams schematically and the impact of a change in venue

Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Alright everybody, we made it. The playoffs are here. It’s been quite a journey to this point and it only got a little more unexpected when the game was moved to Arizona. Let’s dive into it all….

TheDude… How much do you think the venue change to AZ will change the line?

I’ll be curious about that. My guess is that it won’t be much. I’m of the belief that we underrated L.A. fans’ ability to get loud when the Vikings were there last time and they probably would have been even more intense this time around but I don’t think the road element was a major factor in how Vegas was setting the line for this one. Moving the game is undoubtedly a plus for the Vikings because they were already planning on going on the road and I’m imagining a lot of Minnesota ex-pats will be in Arizona already. I’m not really sure how much of an edge it actually gives though. There’s no precedent for it.

Brad L…. Who, besides Darnold, most needs to step up their game this week?

The left side of the offensive line and cornerbacks. The Rams have an incredible group of rushers on their front four. If the Vikings let them get after Darnold the way that the Lions did last week then it’s going to be a really long game. Last week Robinson and Brandel combined to allow 17 pressures. If they aren’t at least serviceable, Darnold is going to end up getting hit/sacked way too much to have a consistent performance.

Last time they played the Rams, they threw a ton of quick passes to counter the Vikings blitz and Jonathan Greenard’s rush and forced the DBs to make a bunch of tackles. I would imagine they want to do that again. They threw at Murphy Jr. and Gilmore 13 times and completed 10 for 145 yards back in Week 8. That can’t happen again if they are going to get off the field.

Bill F… Do you think Vikings will introduce a screen pass plan to counter the blitzes last week surely Rams will copy?

So, the last time the Vikings and Rams played, L.A. blitzed eight times the entire game. It is possible that they will see what Detroit did and try to emulate it but they have such a dominant front four that they might feel like they don’t have to send all-out pressures in order to get after Darnold.

The crazy thing about last week was that Darnold entered the game with the highest passer rating in the league when he was blitzed. As much credit as Aaron Glenn and Detroit deserve for stopping the Vikings offense, there were so many chances that showed up on tape for big play vs. the blitz. The throw down the middle to Hockenson on the second drive, a deep ball that he missed to Addison where Nailor was wide open, the wide open TD that he overthrew to Jefferson. I wonder if the Rams would see that and say… maybe we don’t want to dare him to do that stuff again.

Plus, the Rams don’t have great corners. One thing Detroit did have is Amik Robertson, who was very good against Jefferson. The Rams are 23rd by PFF in coverage grade (Detroit is 7th).

Anyway, to your point about the screens, it’s always been so inconsistent that I’m not confident they can lean on it, but they need to hit on some of those if the Rams are going to send pressure.

Pickle Enjoyer…. What's the correlation between finishing the regular season hot and playoff success?

Usually good teams are just good all season long. The funny thing is, the Vikings did finish the season hot. They won nine of their last 10 including huge games against the Falcons, Seahawks and Packers. If this wasn’t a bizarre season where 14-3 isn’t good enough to get a bye week, we would be looking at it totally differently. I don’t think that one game at the end of the year that goes badly has any predictive power toward what’s going to happen in the playoffs.

Roger N… Are the Vikings planning any wildcat/goal line stuff with Daniel Jones?

If Daniel Jones is the backup, which wouldn’t surprise me, then I would not expect him to be in the game unless Darnold gets hurt. I don’t think this is a Rams front that you really want to be trying some tomfoolery like that against. But we haven’t seen any trickeration in a few weeks, so you never know.

Justin M… Biggest question for me is the D. Last game was a rare one where LA just ground us down.. blitzes didn’t have much success. What does Flores need to change to create the negatives & turnovers we use to win most other games? Or what tricks/trends of his do you think might work?

Yeah, Stafford crushed the Vikings blitz that night. He went 10-for-13 with 128 yards vs. blitzes.

One thing I could see them doing is using Byron Murphy Jr. in man coverage against Puka Nacua. Murphy Jr. has actually been a top-25 PFF graded man coverage corner this year and has allowed a 62.5 passer rating into his coverage on man, which is 14th best (158 snaps). That’s easier said than done because they use a lot of motions and tight splits etc. but I could see them deploying it a little more often than usual.

There should be something that they do differently. Maybe that’s sending edge pressures instead of middle pressures because Stafford did well at attacking the middle.

Chuck A… Do you think we can chalk up some of the truly atrocious protection numbers against Detroit to the noise? There is no way (imo) that they could've possibly communicated normally in the stadium. And is there a fix for this if so?

Noise definitely played into it. Sometimes it’s just matchups. Clearly Levi Onwuzurike was way more of a problem for the interior than we anticipated. We probably should have known that Za’Darius Smith was going to bring it and then their linebackers were flat-out awesome at rushing the passer. The thing I underestimated was how much of a problem Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell were going to be. They had four pressures between them.

It’s sorta the nature of the beast when it comes to pass protection with a non-elite offensive line. The Vikings are good enough to have a good night against Green Bay and light them up in the passing game but if the opponent has the right personnel and plan, they can get hits on the QB as we saw in Seattle and against Arizona.

There isn’t a quick fix, it’s really just having answers about where to throw the ball. If Darnold hit a few of those passes behind the blitzes, it would have been OK in Detroit. He just… didn’t.

Coach Z In BC…. How would the win percentage change if they moved the game out of LA?

It is definitely an advantage for the Vikings. How much? I have no clue.

Brad L…Who is most likely to surprise us (in a good way) this week?

At this point, I’m not sure how many surprises there can really be. I mean, Trent Sherfield and Josh Oliver scored touchdowns against the Rams last time. They would have been nominations. The deepest I could go on this question is that Jalen Nailor has really been stepping up lately, maybe there’s some big moments for him on the way. The same with Dallas Turner. We didn’t see a lot out of him against the Lions but he had been coming up with key plays in previous weeks, it’s possible that there’s a sack or interception from him. Aside from that, the Vikings are who they are. This team has enough talent and depth of guys who make plays for them that they should be too much for the Rams. Key word: Should.

Ramsey K….Two questions about the game and then one long term question in case we get bounced: 1) fans are rightfully fretting about the OL performance against the Rams last time, but that was one half of CD and then a below-average backup playing in a "pin your ears back" game script. How big of an upgrade should we expect with Cam Robinson in vs. Quessenberry? 2) in situations in which we'll play man, do you think Gilmore gets the Puka matchup or the Kupp one? Considering the Rams' lack of tertiary threats I wouldn't be surprised to see us play SG across from Kupp and then double Puka with Murphy and a rotating safety in the way the patriots used to do against #1 receivers. 3) if Flores leaves for one of the HC-ing options, do you think we turn internal (Daronte Jones seems to be speculated as the in-house replacement) or look towards Jerod Mayo or another recently fired coach to do something different?

1 — I think Robinson is still a big upgrade from Quessenberry but his play has drifted back toward below average in the last few weeks. I’m not sure if that’s fatigue or if teams are attacking his weaknesses but he went from having pretty solid pressure numbers and PFF grades to closer to a replacement-level type tackle. They need him badly in this game.

2 — Puka is by far their best receiver these days, so I’d rather see the Vikings best corner on Puka. But teams can’t really travel with receivers anymore like they used to be able to do. All the pre-snap motion and bunch formations basically force defenses to just deal with whatever the offense is throwing at them. As far as safety help, I would want that over Puka the entire time if possible.

3 — Daronte makes a lot of sense because he could carry on the system. I’m not sure if Mayo plays a similar style but he does have the KOC connection so there might be some interest there. Losing Flores would be really, really tough for this defense.

Steve De Jong…Any idea why we don't see more CJ ham in the red zone? Looks like he only has 2 carries the whole year and one of them went for a TD.

If Aaron Jones can’t get yards in the red zone, I don’t think they’re going to believe that CJ Ham will do better. They have had three years to come up with any type of answer for red zone running and they’ve come up with nothing, so any suggestion seems like a decent one. I like the idea better of trying to spread out the defense with 4 WR and then running. The Patriots used to do that a lot. But the OL is just not built to move bodies, which is a problem that can’t be solved now.

Ben… Looking at the numbers for the Rams they just look like an average football team. What area can you see the Vikings really taking advantage of??

It has to be their secondary. Out of the top five players who have the most coverage snaps on their roster, none of them have a PFF grade over 62. As a team they have allowed a 95.9 QB rating against with 7.6 YPA and 29 touchdown passes allowed. All of those numbers are in the bottom third of the league. Their safeties have especially struggled with Quentin Lake giving up a 98.2 rating against and Kamren Curl allowing 136.0 rating when targeted.

The Vikings can throw on this team as long as they can get the ball out. And as dangerous as their D-line is, the Rams’ pressure rate by Pro-Football Reference is only ranked 21st. This is an average defense, not great.

Joe J… Are you still sticking with your initial thinking that Flores won’t end up getting a HC job given the lawsuits and concerns about the Tua relationship, or has that changed now that he’s getting several interviews? It seems like it’s getting more real that the team will need a new DC next year.

Let me be clear: I think Flores is deserving of another shot. He has certainly proven what he can do and it seems like he has learned a ton and grown during his time here in Minnesota. A lot of coaches have bumps in the road during their first try as a HC (especially when he’d only been an LBs coach before) and then figure it out when they get more opportunities.

It does appear significant that he would get interest this year after not getting any looks last year. I thought it was over after that. Maybe owners will put aside the lawsuit and concerns about how he would handle a quarterback but I do think if it’s going to happen, it has to be the exact right situation. With the Tua stuff, I’m not sure any owner is going to pair him with a young quarterback. And would he really want to work for Woody Johnson? The one job I could see making sense is the Jaguars. Veteran QB, desperate need for a defensive turnaround.

Rob K… I know they may be more of a 12-win team than truly 14, but do you think the majority of Vikings fans are dyslexic? Based on the takes this week in the YouTube chats a number of fans seem to think the team is 3-14 rather than the other way around.

If it was only the YouTube chats, I’d probably blow that off as being some trolls but I have felt like the entire year has been spent with the majority of the fans thinking the team was not actually good. It’s like they came along for the 14-3 ride kicking and screaming, rather than blowing their Viking horns and having a good time.

Nobody needs to explain to me that Gary Anderson missed a field goal and all that. I get it. I grew up in Buffalo. But apparently that means you have to spend the entire season being unhappy with them and never give them any credit for anything until they raise the Lombardi Trophy. It’s a tough way to live.

The other thing is that the NFL makes it super easy for everyone to play general manager and I’ve often felt like there’s a huge contingency of fans who can’t wait to get to the offseason rather than enjoying the games. That’s fine, I used to simulate the season on Madden to do the draft and free agency too, but when they’re 14-3, I just can’t fathom thinking that way. For me personally, it’s sucked a lot of the fun out of covering a team that has been so interesting and entertaining along the way.

When it feels like my audience would rather have me cheer for Sam Darnold to fail so they can get rid of him and start signing free agents instead of breaking down games, coaching and great individual performances, I wonder… what am I doing here? Why did I spend all this money to travel to cover the games when I could have been sitting at home doing clickbait QB arguments all year?

Scott M… BOLD PREDICTION 1: The lower seeds will win all the NFC Wild Card playoff games. BILD PREDICTION 2: The Vikings will host the NFCC Thoughts?

That’s certainly BOLD. However, it’s also a possibility. That’s why I’ve continued to roll with the let’s-just-see-what-happens attitude toward this. I think the range of outcomes spans anywhere from losing on Monday to playing in the Super Bowl. When you compare them to the other teams that have made the Super Bowl. If they end up with things falling their way, they could end up with a more favorable situation than we expected. As Chris Berman said, that’s why they play the games.

Ben… Baltimore is a 10 point favorite over Pittsburgh, they aren’t THAT much better are they??

For a playoff game, 10 points does seem like a pretty crazy number, especially since Pittsburgh and Mike Tomlin have had some success against Lamar Jackson in the past. At the same time, Baltimore’s defense has gotten it together and played great down the stretch and Pittsburgh is falling apart. The Steelers’ offense is so mediocre. They can’t really run, their top receiver might actually hate playing football and Russ looks like that little burst he had when he first got back has faded.

It’s really hard to see an upset there. If Baltimore doesn’t end up in a showdown with Buffalo in the divisional round, it will be a complete shock.

M.B…. Pundits usually talk about stacking coverage vs Justin, but Detroit’s brilliant defensive scheme last week seemed especially focused on Darnold (receivers were open all game). What adjustments can KOC install to nudge Sam to get rid of the ball quicker? And how come they rarely roll Darnold out to buy him time/cut the field in half?

If you’re KOC, you can’t be thinking about changing too much from the gameplan — though I don’t think the Rams are going to blitz anywhere near as much as the Lions did. You’re just focused on getting Darnold settled in early in the game. I’d like to see KOC have Darnold hit three, four, five quick passes to begin the game and just have him settle in before they start doing their typical downfield stuff. They haven’t truly worked the ball to Hockenson and leaned on him the way that Kirk did at times. Now might be the time to throw the ball to Hock, throw a quick screen to Addison, throw a swing pass to Jones and just get the operation flowing.

I don’t see them ever building the whole operation around short passes but when Darnold was at his best over the last seven weeks or so before the Detroit game, he was functioning really well with the quick game. In fact, he finished as the No. 5 best short passer (0-9 air yards) in the NFL this year by PFF behind Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. It works.

Rob K…. Do you think Flores gives Nacua the Jefferson treatment? TV commentators always talk about his blitz packages, but rarely mention what he does in the secondary.

You’re right about that, the coverages don’t get discussed as much. There has to be some type of new wrinkle that Flores throws at the Rams. He really threw Jordan Love for a loop with the increase in man coverage, I wonder if there will be less blitzing this time and more four-man rushing or someone that we don’t expect will be an X-factor in the game playing some unusual role. I’m always fascinated by the Belichickian type of approach from Flores to throw different stuff at the opponents. One thing that’s worth remembering is that Cashman didn’t play last time so he’s going to be making adjustments at the line of scrimmage. The Rams didn’t see that last time.

VicStorm….Game moving to Arizona now. More of a home game vibe maybe. Do you think it’s possible Vikings could throw out a big wrinkle in the red zone offence by using Ham, Oliver and maybe another tackle and force that square peg into a round hole a few times. Then work to play action off that same package? Or is that just not them? And… Who ya got??

I have wondered about rolling out Darnold with big personnel. It seems like they always spread it out and pass it rather than loading up the big people and running play-action out of it. It’s also tough to make too many big adjustments when they had been a pretty solid red zone team before that game despite the fact that they can’t run the ball. One thing I thought about was maybe using the extra offensive lineman along with Oliver and slamming the ball behind those guys.

I have the Vikings winning this game 24-20.

Matt R…. Josh Oliver has had some amazing pass block reps recently (awesome against Green Bay) and I think they'll need him Monday night in that role. As an avid watcher of film, will be involved in protection schemes if the Rams are getting pressure with 4? Even though he's a good pass catcher, I feel like he's more valuable helping out there if the Vikings are going to push the ball down field successfully against Jared Verse and co.

I’m in agreement with you that they really need Oliver as a blocker in this game. The only question is how often you can really do that because so much of their stuff is built around using Jalen Nailor for clear-out routes and bunch formations. You don’t want to throw out the things that have worked most out of fear of Jared Verse. He’s really good and could wreck the gameplan but they have to be able to still work Jefferson and Addison first and foremost and then figure it out if they’re struggling to protect.

Bradley P…. Over the past three years the t have the second worst redzone run success. I realize that cannot be addressed until the offseason but what gives? Is it the guards, run scheme…I feel like Hock is a shell of himself this year. Is he less than he was or is it lack of chemistry between him and Darnold?

The issue seems to be that they don’t have linemen who can overpower defensive linemen. Bradbury is more of an outside zone guy, which is rarely used in the red zone and Risner is more of a pass blocker. Robinson doesn’t have Darrisaw’s flexibility to get low and push guys out of the way. With that said, when I asked Wes Phillips about it, he said that some teams are running things defensive that sell out to stop the run. I totally get that but somehow other teams are scoring rushing TDs and the Vikings haven’t done it for three years. There absolutely has to be a schematic element to it. I don’t see surprise delay handoffs or times where the defense is confused about where the run is going because of a motion or blocking scheme. It’s straight handoffs for zero yards way too often.

As far as Hockenson goes, I’m not sure what to say about that. He was wide open several times and Darnold missed him against Detroit. The week before that against Green Bay, he had 5 catches for 68 yards. Darnold looking downfield more often could be a reason why Hockenson hasn’t been used quite as much as that underneath/checkdown option. I haven’t felt that he’s played badly though. He has 2 drops all year, 62% contested-catch rate. His PFF grade was 78.8 last year and it’s 74.0 this year.