Friday Mailbag: Vikings back?

After the win over the Lions, the tone of the mailbag has made a 180-degree shift

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. Look at us, who would have thought? Not me.

The Vikings are now in a position where the games are going to have huge swings in their chances to make the playoffs. So let’s take a look at your questions…

Phil I… Listening to Podcast right now! I’ve been able to watch almost all the Vikes games this year here in DC (free) because of the schedule — and it appears to me that in the last couple of games Jordan Mason is running like he’s afraid to fumble and just doesn’t look the same as he did earlier in the year. Am I wrong?

I hadn’t thought about it that way. It was pretty darn costly for him to have those fumbles against Pittsburgh and Cleveland so it’s possible that he’s being less aggressive and more safe with the football.

I also think that RBs have ups and downs. We expect them to average exactly 4.5 yards per carry every game but their numbers can often be dictated by hot and cold streaks depending on matchups, health etc.

He hasn’t had a run longer than 15 yards since the game against Cincinnati. They could really use a breakout game from him against a Ravens defense that 1) isn’t that great against the run 2) loves to blitz when they get the opportunity.

Especially with Aaron Jones dealing with a shoulder injury, a big game from Mason could be huge.

Anglo Vike… Myles Price has been a breath of fresh air for the return games this year - how much of that is his talent at returner and how much is down to the new rules brought in by the league to make kickoffs relevant again? I rate the guy and even think that he would have thrived under the old way of kickoffs back in the day.

The new rules have created opportunities for guys like Myles Price to be stars again. Think about all the dudes in the past who carved out their niche by having a special ability with the ball in their hands even if they weren’t the most complete players. Guys like Cordarrelle Patterson, David Palmer and Moe Williams here in Minnesota or around the NFL like Josh Cribbs, Mel Gray, Glyn Milburn, Dante Hall, Devin Hester, Desmond Howard and on and on.

I had been arguing for years (see my 2020 article) that football had lost something special with the kickoff disappearing and we’re really seeing that this year with the emergency of players like Price. I love it.

It’s crazy that somebody like Price might not even have a job on this team if not for the kickoff. He’s a good punt returner but that alone might not have been enough to keep him on the 53-man. Now it’s seen as being a valuable role and he might someday develop into a Deebo Samuel-like player who gets the ball underneath and makes plays. Wes Phillips seemed to leave the door open for that as he develops.

Ben…I feel like McCarthy is a football psycho ( which isn’t really a bad thing right??) and it can lead to some special plays but also some catastrophic mistakes. Is that something that KOC can find a good balance on or is that just who he is as a player??

Yeah, it’s a majorly good thing for him to be a football psycho. I’m not sure that any great QB is a totally normal, completely well adjusted human being. It takes so much work and you have to battle through so much emotional and physical pain to be great that you can’t approach it like a regular job. You have to have some type of competitive fire that burns well beyond what is socially acceptable.

Wes Phillips said it rightly today that McCarthy does need to make sure he’s not getting way too amped up. There were times against Detroit where he tried to do too much, whether that was on scrambles where he got smacked or the overturned interception. That’s going to be a function of him playing more and more.

In terms of KOC, yes, I do think he has to balance wanting to push McCarthy’s arm talent and keeping the train on the tracks. He praises McCarthy when he takes a checkdown but he needs to apply some of that to himself with some easy-button play calling throughout the game, especially when it feels like things are getting a little loose for McCarthy.

Evan… Where is the disconnect this year between BFlo’s elite ability to scout talent and how the Vikings defense has underperformed this year? Has it just been the injuries? Is it AVG who makes everyone play like pro bowlers?

It’s a few different things. Not having Andrew Van Ginkel is massive. He’s legitimately one of the best players in the entire NFL. Missing him is no small thing, particularly when his replacement isn’t prepared yet to do the things he can do. I also think Flores has had to find the right fit for a lot of these new guys. That might have been something we underestimated but he’s said it a few times that he’s still working on the roles for certain players. He pointed specifically to Javon Hargrave when it comes to that.

I’ll also always believe that offense impacts defense. You can have all the defensive talent in the league but if your QB play ranks 27th in the league, like it did for the Vikings through 7 weeks, your defense is going to have some problems. That means the other team has all the advantages of playing ahead all day.

That’s why I think the best predictor for success for this team the rest of the way is going to be how they perform in the first two or three drives.

Dermo Man… I am hoping, if the Vikings are to make the playoffs, that both the Vikings and the Eagles win their next two games. Given opponents in those 4 games what would you think the likelihood of that happening is and what would playoff odds look like if it did happen. Is there a pie chart in there somewhere ?

I didn’t realize the Eagles were playing the Packers and Lions over the next two weeks. That seems like a good bounce for the Vikings as they go into this next section of their schedule. If the Vikings win their next two and the Eagles chop into Green Bay and Detroit’s lead in the division, then we’re going to be legitimately taking about a division race for the ages. All four teams in the NFC North have enough talent to make an argument that they should be at the top and all four teams have enough flaws where you could see them dropping off.

I’m not sure about a pie chart — all I can really say is that every possible outcome is on the table now. It’s insane how big that win against Detroit was. If they lose that game, none of this matters. Now they “control their own destiny” in a lot of ways. Crazy league.

Thomas S…Thank you for your outstanding coverage Matthew. What’s your assessment of Byron Murphy’s season to date? The eye test tells me he is playing more like 2023 than last season.

Thanks, brother. From a statistical standpoint, I would agree that Murphy’s numbers (PFF grade, QB rating allowed etc.) look a lot more like 2023 than last year. In 2024, he was in a position to make a lot of plays, in part because opposing teams were chasing the Vikings all the time. The pick that he got against Kirk was one where Atlanta was trying to come from behind and the D-line forces a bad throw and he made a great play on it. Like everyone else, he’s going to be better when the D-line is getting pressure and forcing bad throws, then you know he’s going to be in the right positions to make a play.

It feels like so many players underperformed expectations in the first half of the year that some of these things are bound to go back the other way and Murphy Jr. falls in that category.

Patrick G…How much of the special team’s penalties/issues could be from not having CJ Ham out there due to his availability with injuries this year?

It’s a CJ Ham-adjacent problem. Matt Daniels said on Thursday that on the kickoff units, seven of the 11 guys out there are rookies. Young players make mistakes when it comes to penalties (though Tavierre Thomas had the miscues last week). If you have more veterans out there, including CJ Ham, you have a better chance of guys knowing how to use their feet and block technically better. He’s also a really good leader of the special teams, which helps.

Usually in the offseason I’ll get questions about why the Vikings love Ham so much. This is partly why along with the fact that he’s a great pass protector. It’s like having another offensive lineman in the backfield. They have missed that because Jordan Mason isn’t a plus pass protector.

Bradley P… Being the historian that you are, are you able to compare JJ’s first few starts to Teddy, Dante, the name of which we cannot speak, etc?

All of them were inconsistent at the start. Teddy went off against the Falcons and they scored 41 points and then he threw three interceptions the next week. Daunte was a wild ride. He won his first three starts but threw three picks in a 13-7 win over Miami and then got on a run. Daunte’s second through seventh start, he went 5-0 with 13 TD and 3 INT. The thing that Culpepper had — aside from all-time great receivers — was accuracy. He was an unbelievable thrower. Teddy and JJ are guys that needed/need improvement and have to battle their way through some inconsistency and win with good decision making, game management, scrambling and clutch play.

As far as the other guy, he was OK. [QB redacted] in 2011 lost a close game to Green Bay where he was super inaccurate and then had a great win over Carolina where he had a 102.7 QB rating, then he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn the following week.

The moral of the story: It’s always a roller coaster and it’s never clear within the first three games how it’s going to really go long term.

Jordan D… Should we expect to see QB sneaks from McCarthy this year? Is it impossible to practice QB sneaks because you don’t want McCarthy taking hits in practice? The efficiency of a QB sneak makes it a must-have play, so is the best option to just run it in a real game and hope for the best?

I would assume that it’s something they have practiced and are comfortable with running. Though there’s a joke in here about KOC still throwing on every third/fourth-and-inches. If they want to avoid JJ taking hits on the QB sneak, they have this fellow named Jordan Mason who was brought here to convert short yardage stuff.

Historically, even before the tush push, sneaks have been incredibly effective. Usually it’s because they only do it when there’s the right look. Maybe we’ll see it. Knowing McCarthy, he might try to jump over every defender, so they might want to protect him from himself there.

Stephanie… If you analyzed Brandel on the post game pod, I apologize for missing it. I was thinking about Brandel after the game and realized I hadn’t really noticed him during the game. That got me thinking about nose tackles (which Detroit didn’t have/play). I know you have discussed 4-3 vs 3-4 a lot in the past, but when it comes to Brandel specifically, do you think his size/skill set/experience impacts how well he plays against a certain type of D-line? I’d think it’s easier on the center not to face a behemoth breathing down his gullet at the snap, am I right? Maybe it doesn’t matter as a backup to the backup since he’s probably just hanging on for dear life regardless of who’s across from him.

We didn’t talk a lot about Brandel. In terms of his PFF grade, he did extremely well in terms of pass pro (84.6 grade, zero pressures). I think what’s going to happen with Brandel at center is that it will depend on the opponent’s gameplan and the matchup. If he’s playing against Jalen Carter, it’s probably not going to go well. If he’s taking on a team that attacks the guards more and he can help, then it’ll be alright.

He is on the taller side, which does allow guys who are quicker to get an edge on him. He’s also still learning that he has to play that spot a little differently than a mauling guard. You are onto something in terms of having that DT playing right over him and having a two-way go on the pass rush versus knowing where the pressure is likely coming from.

This week isn’t a tough test in terms of the opposing personnel but it might be a challenge in terms of blitzes. Baltimore does dial up a lot of looks for the center to sort through.

Overall, Brandel has given them solid play. About the best case scenario for a No. 2 center.

Eldon… We have heard plenty of well deserved praise for Jalen Redmond but how has LDR looked to you this year?