Friday mailbag: Underdogs?

The Vikings aren't favored heading into their game against the Cowboys and fans want to know why

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone. Hope you have all prepared yourselves for another Vikings matchup with a quality opponent. Let’s see what’s on everyone’s minds…

@smccullough5 Of all the major moments in last Sundays game, I think two moments are going under the radar. As the Vikes were starting there comeback mid 4th quarter KOC went for it twice on 4th down in their territory! How would you evaluate KOCs decision making and game management?

You’re completely right about that. O’Connell understood that the way Buffalo was throwing the ball with Allen, it was going to be tough to rely on the defense getting a stop and he preferred to put the ball in his own players’ hands to win the game. I’d give O’Connell a B+ for game management. Analytics guru Ben Baldwin’s site ranks them in the middle of the league for making fourth down decisions that match up with the numbers. Last week they blew two timeouts and that nearly proved costly but generally KOC has been good at not using silly timeouts early in the half and he’s managed the clock well at the end of halves/games really well. I’m not sure that you have a Madden player out there pushing the buttons but it’s been a net positive this year following the sheer madness of previous seasons.

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 What's been the most fun aspect of this team to cover so far this season?

Allow me to say this first: I always enjoy covering the team. You won’t get any more or less from me when it’s a winning or losing season. Every year the team takes on its own shape and it’s been very interesting to cover a group that has bonded like this one has. Very reminiscent of 2017 in that way. There’s also something about covering someone like Patrick Peterson that I try to appreciate in the moment. This is one of the greatest players in NFL history and he’s open, honest and insightful. Good luck finding that too many times in a career. More than anything, it’s the discussions. In previous years every conversation ended with, “So do you think someone gets fired if they lose this one?” This year we can break down games, deep dive into why things are/aren’t working and how they match up. Sometimes in the past few seasons everyone was so down that it felt like none of that mattered. Now every week it matters.

@AlNotino It seems to me that Kirk is more clutch than ever this year, with a series of amazing throws to Justin Jefferson vs Buffalo just the latest example. But his stats seem to be going downhill, even stats like QBR which should reward winning performance. Why is there a discrepancy?

My friend Eric Eager puts it this way: If you light the house on fire, you don’t get credit for putting it out. Kirk had a rough QBR on Sunday because those interceptions played a big role in them falling behind by 17 points. In the end, nobody cares that happened because he was able to come back but the stats capture everything, not just the good parts. They’ve had long sections of games with no production and been forced to come back from down in the fourth quarter five times. I don’t think he’s exactly more clutch, I think that stats like game-winning drives are pretty bogus. Last year against Detroit he lead a go-ahead drive and then the defense allows a touchdown to lose in the final seconds. Was Kirk not clutch in that one? Against Arizona, he drove the field to set up a game-winning field goal and ope, they missed it. I think he’s always been at his best when the opposing defense is trying to play safe. He throttles prevent defenses, which is a good thing because it feels like no deficit is too much. But they are playing a dangerous game relying on the game-winning drive week after week.

@gonefishing58 So I thought a let down was a real possibility this week but then I saw the Vikings were 1.5 point underdogs at home. What a slap in the face! How much do you think KOC will use this to motivate the team against the Cowboys on Sunday?

Gambling entities don’t slap you in the face, they set lines that have the best chance to be right. I asked an expert from VSiN and he said it’s pretty simple: A lot of metrics point to Dallas being the better team. They have a better point differential, better DVOA, better defensive EPA, top-five pass defense and they’ve won three straight times at US Bank Stadium so there isn’t a massive home-field advantage.

I know that wasn’t your question but I’ve seen, “THE DISRESPECT” on social media a lot. Anyway, I don’t think that’s KOC’s style. If they were going to play the nobody-believes-in-us card, it would have needed to be earlier in the season. When power rankers are putting you in the top five, your players are all over NFL Network, ESPN, Pat McAfee show etc., it’s hard to tell everyone that the outside world is hatin’ on you. KOC seems to have more of the, “Let’s be pros,” approach. Every week is the same. They haven’t accomplished anything yet. Do your job. I’m for that angle.

@DonLokken Is JJ actually hurt?

The fact that he was limited in practice instead of DNP would suggest that it’s more of a bump/bruise than a serious injury. Guys are limited early in the week all the time. What you really watch for is participation later in the week. If he’s still limited, it might be a thing. But he’s definitely going to play.

@IAmBrandonCates Why are the 8-1 Vikings considered home underdogs against the Cowboys?

Aside from some of the data leaning toward the Cowboys being stronger, there’s another factor that might weigh in: Last week the Vikings played a ton of plays. In total, 151, to be exact. Dallas’s defense only faced 61 plays. There’s the emotional high of the Vikings versus the back-on-the-horse mentality kind of thing for Dallas. I can’t say for sure those are weighing in but it’s possible.

@kyriakos_tj Paul Allen and Adrian Peterson are 2 huge reasons I ended up a vikings fan. With PA going viral this week I'd love to hear your top 10 play-by-play callers in the NFL.

I can’t say that I know 10 play-by-play broadcasters in the NFL. I’m at the stadium almost every week throughout the season, so I only hear Al Michaels and Joe Buck on the national games. When I was growing up the NFL broadcast teams were unbelievable. Dick Enberg, Pat Summerall, the legendary Al-Frank-Dan crew on Monday Night Football. And even Dick Stockton had his day. I will say that I hope sports on the radio live forever. The Bills had the GOAT Van Miller as their play-by-play guy when I was growing up and we used to listen to him when games were blacked out. There’s nothing like it.

@_teddyseulgi with zadarius, pat p, danielle, aging veterans that are peaking, coupled with the incoming paycheck owed to justin jefferson, do you see vikings superbowl window closing basically after this year? what r ur thoughts on the future of the vikings’ superbowl windows?

Saying it’s officially closed after this would be a little too aggressive because there are so many things that can change between now and next year but the path is going to get harder, for sure. You laid it out accurately: There’s a lot of guys who are majorly valuable on this team that aren’t being paid anywhere near their worth and it’s justified for them to come back to the table with receipts and ask for more. The thing that can even that out is players on rookie deals. Can they afford to move on from someone like Kendricks to give Brian Asamoah the job? They might not have a choice. Add the cap difficulties with age and possible regression and it’s hard to see things going exactly the same way as this year. Like 2019 to 2020 kinda possibilities.

@FouhyStan Are the Vikings for real? Is it time to really invest my time in them as far as being a championship team?

Are you busy on Sundays otherwise? There’s some statistical indicators that would make you wonder if they can go deep into the playoffs like their Expected Win-Loss, which is 5.4-3.6. That’s quite a gap from 8-1. But if you look around at the rest of the NFC, are you seeing teams that are head and shoulders above everyone else? Definitely not. The Vikings are tied for the third best point differential in the conference. Nobody really knows where this will go. Ride the wave, my man.

@iBLearning79 Is it time to talk about JJ as the MVP this year?

MVP is always so hard to win for anyone that’s not a quarterback. Mahomes and Tua are making very strong cases at the moment and then Tyreek Hill is still ahead of Jefferson in yardage, which may take away from his candidacy. The last few years voters have sort of taken the Offensive Player of the Year award and given it to the best non-QB. Cooper Kupp won it in 2021. I could definitely see JJ taking that. But if there’s a drop-off from Tua or injury to Mahomes, the door opens up in a year where QBs haven’t been spectacular. And he’s certainly deserving.

@jrm531 Depth was a huge concern this season, the thought was the starting team is solid, but inevitable injuries will expose how thin they are. There have been downs with backups, but in both the O/D trenches, does it seem they may actually have some legitimate depth and development?

I would say so, yes. The few guys that have been called upon like Josh Metellus, Akayleb Evans and Blake Brandel have stepped up. DJ Wonnum has done pretty well in his role this year to the point where you’d trust him in a pinch to start. The interior defensive line has done really well with Dalvin Tomlinson out. There’s some guys on special teams like Brian Asamoah who appear to be coming along too. That said, they’re one more injury within the cornerback group away from being in trouble. There’s no receiver beyond KJ Osborn.

@VikingsCouch If Justin Jefferson’s toe injury is significant, can Kirk Cousins win with what’s left at WR? In that worst-case scenario, should the Vikings try to sign OBJ just to have hope this season?

If Jefferson were to get hurt, yes, they’d need to get into the Odell Beckham sweepstakes as fast as possible because you can’t throw away this amazing start to the year. And this offense is simply not dangerous at all without JJ. They could make the playoffs still but not go anywhere else without him.

@smccullough5 That GB QB made some bold statements this week about how his team would run the table and that the division is still "up for grabs". Given the magic number for Minnesota is 4, let's assume that other guy is correct and GB sweeps, do you see four wins with the remaining schedule?

Green Bay sweeping the rest of the schedule would be wild. It’s actually a pretty tough slate for the Vikings down the stretch. I’d have to go with the Colts and Lions games as locks, split NY/NY and split CHI/GB.

@jtone01 Any chance Evans or Darrisaw plays Sunday? Big pieces we need this Sunday !

Based on Thursday’s practice it looks like Darrisaw has a chance. He was limited. Evans seems less likely since he didn’t practice at all. With concussions it’s very hard to tell though.

@kanediddoit Do you think when KOC took over the team, he watched the 2021 season back and thought this was a good football team that just needed to clean up the ends of each half? And that’s why we hear so much emphasis about them and why there was minimal roster turnover with a new regime?

I think the Wilfs decided after they shopped all their stars that they couldn’t get enough back for them to justify a teardown and then decided to just give the thing another shot while trying to rebuild the weaknesses in the draft. I do not believe they expected to be in this position through 10 weeks. Certainly there were players making your argument. Patrick Peterson has said as much. Almost every coach puts emphasis on situational football but that was where the chaos was most felt last year. There has been more of a calm demeanor in those end-of-half or end-of-game spots. However, we can’t ignore how weird the NFL can be. Last year versus Dallas the ball bounced off Bashaud Breeland and right into the hands of the Cowboys receiver. Is that coaching or just a weird thing that happened?

@DShepeck We’ve still seen an unreasonable amount of scrutiny on Kirk despite the record and game winning throws. What makes him so polarizing, in your opinion, and why is it that people will NEVER change their mind about him once they’ve decided?

From who? Twitter? He is getting a ton of positive national attention. He was on the Manningcast, man. I haven’t seen any clips of analysts ranting that Cousins won’t be able to take them anywhere. It seems that some of you are more comfortable feeling like the world is against you but, hey, welcome to 8-1. Everyone loves everything you do right now. Also, the Kirk being polarizing stuff… it’s like Jay Cutler in Chicago. When you have a QB who’s up and down, people will always debate them constantly.

@headcoach21 Out of all the things that have happened this year in the NFL is Josh McDaniels being a disaster in Las Vegas the least surprising??

Can’t disagree with that one. You guys ever think about how this thing could have been different if the Vikings hired the wrong coach? Well, just look at the Raiders. They had a similar offseason where they brought in veterans to win now, they have a similar QB, similar elite WR but instead of a level-headed coach who cooperates with players, the Raiders have another Belichick tree egomaniac. If you think the Vikings have had it rough for the last 25 years, go look at the Raiders. My gosh.

@CurrentEventsR Also--- a couple weeks ago you brought up Thielen and the new ESPN numbers to support the case that he is productive, but you neglected to mention that KJ Osborn was also ranked 45th. They are both tied now for 38th. How is KJO playing really?

That’s part of the issue with numbers like that in the middle of a season…they can change quickly. I don’t know that Osborn has really found his fit in this offense. Osborn was effective in the slot last season but this year he only has 16 catches for 143 yards lining up inside (per PFF). KOC seems to like a lot of downfield concepts and that’s not really Osborn’s game. You saw the power he runs with on that fourth-and-1. The answer is probably getting the ball in his hands and letting him make some plays in space but they aren’t scheming much for him, it’s for JJ, Thielen and Hockenson. Maybe as they go along he can settle into more of a niche but he might just be the odd man out.

@HokNate The way Vikings are making a superbowl run, do you think players next year would sign more team friendly/ take pay cuts to try and make another run next year?

Saying they’re making a Super Bowl run is pretty presumptuous, isn’t it? There’s something to that but everybody also has to get theirs. If Jefferson is anything less than the highest paid receiver in football, he’s been hoodwinked. Za’Darius Smith has to ask for more. So does Danielle Hunter. So does Patrick Peterson. These guys are so far underpaid that they can’t step on the field again at their current prices. Would they take deals that are structured for short-term space? Probably. But those always come with a price down the road. They’ll have lots of work to do in order to keep this thing together.

@HandAvenue Meant to ask last week, but is there a receiver better at avoiding hard contact than Stefon Diggs? Seems like an underrated WR skill for staying on the field and probably YAC. Seen some of this out of Olave in the few games of his I’ve caught, too.

Diggs is like Barry Sanders in that way. I don’t remember ever seeing Sanders get decked because defenders were always diving at a ghost.

@SchielBrian A quiet benefit of ‘not’ blowing up the roster seems to be taking shape. It’s apparent the coaching staff is very capable. If the Vikings were to have finished the season with four wins, after blowing it up, we might not know. Do you agree?

Somewhat. I don’t think anyone believed they would tank and be terrible. Had they traded Cousins, signed Mariota and had him throw the ball to Jefferson all the time, we probably would have still gotten a good idea of what the coaching staff was made of. In some ways, they have so many veteran players that we are seeing those guys drive the bus. But on the whole, I agree. If they couldn’t get this team to be very competitive with this schedule and had players showing frustration etc., then there would have been major red flags for the future. Instead you can feel pretty confident KOC is going to be a quality coach for a long time.

@robbQthibault Mr. Coller-Gosh dang I hope Darrisaw is back this week: #FridayMailbag what are the odds Ty Chandler gets to play some significant ball later this season (provided that he’s off injured reserve)? I have a gut feeling we may see him late in the season to add some unexpected spark.

I’d be surprised if we see Chandler, save for a serious injury to Dalvin Cook. His preseason was impressive but they’re not going to run anybody else out there aside from Cook and Mattison if they’re healthy. Chandler’s presence does make things interesting for next year if they want to move on from Cook but that’s going to be pretty difficult if he averages 5.0 yards per carry.

@RalphVixCPA Who do you have winning the World Cup?

Netherlands.

@wkfrench First time, long time with a fans only question: is this weekend's game the Odell bowl? The winner will be better poised for playoff seeding and a postseason run. I'll hang up and listen :)

It’s kinda odd that Beckham hasn’t been connected to the Vikings by NFL insiders. I’m not sure why they wouldn’t be in the conversation. You could make a case for Dallas to get him either way. If they win he’s the piece to make them a real contender, if they lose he’s the piece they need to save the season. He loves spotlight, it just makes sense.

@Ztorm2k Which current Vikings player would you pick to piggyback you through a Thundersnow storm?

Dalvin Tomlinson.

@BIG_dannn After hearing your podcast with bob strum about how the cowboys D-line uses constant stunts. Do you feel the Vikings interior line (especially Cleveland) can finally solve this problem or is it what it is and buckle up?

It’s a major concern. It’s going to be a weakness all year, what it comes down to is mitigating the damage and making opponents pay with big runs like they did against Miami and Buffalo (except maybe earlier in the game). If they came out on Sunday and hit three or four 15-20 yard runs, the Cowboys will have to make a change. In previous years that’s when they’ve had the most luck against Dallas. Last year they didn’t run well and the offense struggled.

@CurrentEventsR What was your take on the 3rd&1 pass into a tight window to KJO (I thought KJ should have caught it with his hands out instead of on the body) and what numbers are out there to explore Cousins' willingness to throw into tight windows this season, big time throws, air yards...?

I thought they should have just run twice in that situation. By contested catch attempt numbers, Cousins isn’t doing anything different from last year. He’s recently gone from throwing very few passes into coverage to mid-pack — but he’s also coming off a game where he absolutely had to make those throws repeatedly. O’Connell made it pretty clear at the bye week that he wanted Cousins to push the ball downfield and be more aggressive even if there are interceptions that occasionally come along with it and I think we’re seeing that. If he continues to increase that aggressiveness, it’ll pay dividends.

@ThaddeusZenk How are Darrisaw, Tomlinson, and other injured players looking right now?

Darrisaw has a chance, it would be surprising if Tomlinson, Dantzler or Evans played.

@RalphVixCPA Ok real question. If a fan started doing something after the Phili game. Obviously everyone knows to keep doing it, you don't screw with a streak. But the question is can they speak of it, example, since Phili I have always worn my Moss Moon socks, will that break the streak?

If you don’t tell anyone about it, does it exist?

@bobh332 Your opinion on Kene. No offensive snaps at all and looks very ordinary on KO returns.

The Vikings aren’t the only clever team when it comes to kickoffs. We’re seeing more clubs doing the pin thing that Matt Daniels does, which may be making it a little tougher on him. I don’t have an explanation for why he hasn’t gotten any offensive snaps but O’Connell didn’t sound like he had plans to change that when he was asked about it a few weeks ago. Using him every so often on a reverse or quick screen makes sense to me.

Jeff via email I don't believe Cousins can continue to care more about wins than stats. I don't believe we will be able to avoid injuries to key, veteran players. Mostly, I don't believe opposing teams will continue to have some horrible luck befall them just as the Vikings are preparing to face them. All of these things are the kinds of things that even out over a season. The Vikings are just pulling the fans out into deeper water where there is nothing to grab on to when the ship starts to sink.

Talk me out of this.

Pretty dark, Jeff, pretty dark. I actually think that you can be right about the injuries and opposing teams and they are so far ahead in the division that it won’t matter. If they play .500 the rest of the way, they go into the playoffs as a No. 2 seed and then it’s a brand new season. Regression is a real thing but they don’t suddenly have to start falling apart just because things have gone their way so far. Their hope should be that the addition of Hockenson and familiarity with the scheme plus the way the team has bonded together will all make them a better team as they go along, thus staving off the natural luck swings.

@jeffintokyo1 2 mailbag questions... From what I saw of the Packers game today...Rodgers could not hit receivers even when open....Has the dude hit his expiration date? Second question...So...For in season practice, what do the players do. I mean by that is how physical is it? I assume they run through a lot of the scripted plays a few times but basically what is the physicality level. Also does it help coaches guess who is next up on the depth chart (calling Mr. Duke Shelley)?

Yeah, there’s still a handful of impressive Rodgers throws per game but it’s probably over. If he doesn’t retire, it’s possible that they could run it back one more time next year and try to get him another receiver or two but I think if anyone is blaming only the receivers then they haven’t watched much. He hasn’t been the same. Age comes for all of us.

Practice level depends on the situation. Coming off a long, physical game in Buffalo, KOC was smart to do a glorified walk-through. But your regular Wednesday/Thursday practice in season (which are not open to media) is likely pretty physical. Maybe not quite the intensity of a training camp practice but they’re going hard for the allotted time.

@antoinecoetzee Despite early struggles, it seems Donatell’s more simplistic defense may allow savvy vets to thrive and more easily integrate inexperienced players than Zimmer’s more effective, more specialized defense. Thoughts?

That’s probably true for Patrick Peterson. But I think the difference between Zimmer the last two years and what’s happening this year comes down to health. Give the 2020 and 2021 Vikings Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter and they’re in the playoffs, guaranteed. The foundation of Zimmer’s system was creating pressure with Griffen/Hunter and then hitting the Anthony Barr/Harrison Smith blitzes at the exact right times. When they didn’t have quality edge rushers, he had to blitz all the time to create pressure and that left weaknesses in the secondary. Michael Pierce was also hurt. Imagine if they didn’t have Harrison Phillips this year and instead played Sheldon Richardson against the run. Zimmer was a brilliant defensive mind but nobody is going to thrive with backups.

@RobDN1 Give us score prediction for the Vikings-Cowboys game

I’ll go Vikings 24-21. Doinked field goal by the ‘Boys to lose it.

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