Friday mailbag: Trap game?
The Vikings are playing the Lions and fans want to know if they should brace for this one
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By Matthew Coller
OK who’s excited for Vikings-Lions? Everybody? Anybody? Well, an ugly matchup doesn’t mean we’re short on Friday Mailbag questions so let’s get into it…
@egfseattle Is this a trap game? Are trap games even real?
Every time this has been studied statistically, the results have shown that trap games aren’t really a thing, we just notice much more when a good team loses to a bad team. Though I don’t think a below .500 team can call anything a “trap” game. Every week the rest of the way is a playoff game for the Vikings, even if it’s against a bad opponent.
@RickJamesB4 Is there anything the Vikings can do Sunday to be considered anything other than "Fools Gold"? I don't want to be lured in again in thinking this team can be trusted with expectations...
Yeah, I get your point. This isn’t the type of game that you use to project forward. The two outcomes are: A) Stay in the playoff race B) Completely embarrass yourself. It doesn’t matter how it looks. Even if it’s a struggle, we’re not taking things away from this one because we’re no longer trying to figure out this team. We know who they are now, so every week is about whether we’re watching playoff games this year or not.
@BaseballNorm Friday mailbag question: Has Zimmer lost his fastball? Back to back years of putrid defense…I get injuries happen but he put all his eggs in basket of D this year & even before injuries they were terrible. What value does he bring as a head coach if his D stinks?
Well, we need to talk about what “all his eggs” in the defensive basket means. The offseason was mostly a bunch of bets that rarely hit. They signed an older All-Pro corner coming off his worst season, two veteran corners that nobody was willing to pay, a nose tackle, a journeyman No. 3 linebacker, a safety nobody was willing to pay, a defensive tackle who was cut late in the offseason and a defensive end who nobody signed until late August.
They didn’t just have *some* injuries, they lost a top five player at his position in the NFL and their recent draft picks either haven’t developed into capable players or are a ways away from being impact players (i.e. Patrick Jones).
The roster was ridiculously fragile from the start and many of the bets haven’t paid off. The Vikings are still 9th in third down defense, where Zimmer can scheme it up but I’ve never known a coach who could overcome bad personnel over a full season. That doesn’t mean he should win Coach of the Year, it’s just that the idea they could patch the defense together with sticks and glue was always very risky.
Zimmer was probably slow to get super aggressive with decision making this year and to realize the running game wasn’t as good as past years but I’m not watching these games thinking they are out-coached every week. I’m thinking the roster outside of about five or six players is just a bunch of guys.
@_Born2Early_ mailbag question, if Vikes make playoffs would Irv Smith Jr. be back? Thought I heard earlier in the year it was a possibility.
We haven’t heard anything about where he’s at in his rehab process, so I can’t say for sure whether that’s possible. But considering I’ve seen players come back slowly from an injury like this even when they have an entire training camp to work on it, I’m going to guess that’s not really realistic. And at this point, do you want him to rush back?
@VikingsCouch What are some substantive changes that have benefited the special teams this year? The return game stands out.
I asked Zimmer this question on Monday. Here’s what he said: “I think the biggest thing he’s done is simplified what we’re doing. He obviously each week does a good job of adjusting to what the other team is doing and having a plan off of that. He comes in and talks to me about fakes all the time and different things and we look at that together. I think once you start having success as a unit, it kind of builds on that, so now they feel like any time they kick the ball to us, Kene has a chance to go the distance.”
I would guess that having a preseason and guys with more experience in coverage and blocking units has helped too. They also made the right decision at punter.
@ChadPad Both of their DC's and Zimmer are on the sidelines. Is there any defensive coach (maybe Gunther) that is up in the booth communicating down?
The way I’ve heard them describe it before is a “group effort.” I imagine they all have certain things that they’re looking for and those are communicated to Zimmer, who makes the final call on what type of defense they want to use on a given play. The defensive coordinators are responsible for sending in personnel. Patterson is deciding on which defensive linemen to use, Adam Zimmer is setting the linebacker group, so they might not be able to keep an eye on everything during the live action.
@TorontoJeff1 I became a Vikings fan in the early 70s at the age of 10 - my question why did I do this to myself / I live in Ontario I could of picked any team. I will hang up and listen …
You couldn’t have known back then what type of sadness would befall you. At the time, they were one of the best teams in the NFL with the Purple People Eaters. While it’s true that fans of this team haven’t gotten to celebrate a Super Bowl and have been gut-punched many times, they’ve also never really had a hopeless team. I was in Buffalo when they missed the playoffs for 20 straight years and it felt like there was no reason to pay attention to football at all. Every season was over by November. This team has given you lots of exciting players, memorable seasons and reasons to think it could happen someday.
@RobDN1 What’s the biggest reason the Vikings haven’t won a Super Bowl since Cousins signed? Defense regressed Offensive line is blah Changing OC’s multiple times Something else?
You have to ask two questions: Why didn’t the Vikings win the Super Bowl in 2018 and 2019 and then ask why they didn’t win in 2020 (or presumably 2021). The first answer is that the quarterback wasn’t good enough. Those teams had top-five defenses, two elite receivers and an elite running back. With great quarterback play, they could have overcome bad guards and beat anyone. But in numerous must-win games, they got no-shows. That doesn’t mean it’s entirely his fault, it means that with elite QB play, they could have gone farther. Instead they got OK quarterback play and went a shade over .500. In 2020 and 2021, their desperate attempt to stay relevant caused them to make a bunch of moves that were far from pragmatic and they paid for it in a bunch of areas on the roster. And even though the QB played well overall, Cousins would have needed to be an A+ to make this team a real contender with the number of trades, draft picks and contracts that have gone wrong.
@Tad_Fundermann The NFL has realized they don't need to spend high picks on RBs now. Is WR the next position to see this devaluation? There are so many mid round WRs that are really good every year now. So outside the once a decade players it feels like WRs will start slipping in the draft soon.
PFF’s Austin Gayle said this same thing to me the other day and it’s an interesting thought. The major concern you have with these receivers in their second/third contracts is health. They seem to get hurt a lot. But unlike running backs, an elite receiver is worth a ton to an offense. The NFL is all about who can win against man coverage, right? If you have guys who can do it, you can be good on offense (see the 2017/2018 Rams). If you have no receivers who can do it, everything is a struggle (see the 2021 Lions). So are you willing to let someone like Davante Adams walk with hopes the next guy is coming? We’ve also seen a ton of busts at that position recently too. Teams will have to be very aware of when the fall-off could occur before they pay out.
@Skorzo60 Question, yes Bosa schooled Darrisaw on the one sack, but other than that, the rookie appeared rather impressive to this untrained eye. Your thoughts?
Yes and no. Here’s a telling stat: Darrisaw had six true pass sets the entire game. That means drop-back passes with no play-action, no screens and the throw came out past 2 seconds. On a normal week, you’re usually looking at 15-20. There weren’t many actual one-on-ones with Bosa in real, straight up pass blocking situations. Overall though Darrisaw has played well. If he stays healthy, he has the potential to be really good.
@l_blaske27 Any chance Zim gets fired after the Pittsburgh game if they lose this week to Detroit and then to Pittsburgh?
Is there a chance? It’s the Vikings, so there’s always a chance, yes. I can’t really see it though. Even if they fell to 5-8, they would still have some playoff odds remaining and could win out and finish with a winning record. I think the Wilfs have a great deal of respect for Zimmer and won’t make a change unless they’re eliminated (if they’re going to make a change at all).
@benjackson0812 What’s your pie chart of issues with The Steelers offense?? A. Scheme B. Personnel C. THORW THE WHOLE OFFENSE AWAY.
100% Big Ben. He’s PFF’s worst graded starting quarterback. Dead freaking last. Worse than Sam Darnold. He has absolutely nothing left. I haven’t watched much of their scheme yet to know for sure but when the QB can’t make any of the throws, what can any offensive coordinator do? They shouldn’t have let him come back. Even with somebody like Teddy, that team would have been right in the mix in the AFC North.
@BIG_dannn It’s lion week. Just win. So changing it up this Wk. I played against two top 15 1st rounder in the past ten years Vikings (former & active) in HS. One of their moms was also my HS Principal. Who are they? Hint: I’m 30.
Well, if you’re 30 now, that narrows it down to only a few drafts. Between 2008 and 2021, they have only picked Christian Ponder, Matt Kalil, Anthony Barr and Trae Waynes in the top 15. Barr and Kalil played high school in California, so I’ll go with them.
@smccullough5 How SHOULD the Vikings balance the workload between Mattison and Nwangwu? A few carries a game as a change of pace back, even workload with lots of swing passes or both backs on the field all the time?
Give Nwangwu a package of 10-15 plays that he’s very comfortable running and use them throughout the game. Mattison has been in the system way longer and usually does a good job when he’s asked to fill in but it would be a big mistake not to have plays built in that could go for a home run with Nwangwu. You also can’t ask him to go from a guy who has never run in the NFL (and rarely ran in college) to getting 50 plays. Gotta work up to that.
@jvangelder if you had to replace Kirk Cousins with a non-Matt Stafford Lions qb from their entire franchise history, who would you pick?
Assuming Bobby Layne and Earl Morrall are off the table, I’ll go with both Rodney Peete and Erik Kramer at the same time. They combined to win 12 games and operate a top 10 offense in 1991 (though I’m thinking Barry Sanders had something to do with that). Also assume that Daunte Culpepper doesn’t count. Scott Mitchell is a little too on the nose for a Cousins comparison.
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