Friday Mailbag: Trade-up scenarios everywhere

Vikings fans are waiting on the team to make their next move.... but will they?

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! It’s Friday so maybe we’ll get a little news action rolling. If not, well, then there’s plenty of speculation for your purple minds here so let’s dive into it….

Reginald… Have we discussed the doomsday scenario where a team trades up to 4 with the Cardinals before we do and New England refuses to trade down? Vikings may still might end up taking a QB with one of those 2 1st round picks, but it sure does look bad…

For me the only doomsday scenario is that the quarterback room is Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall when the Vikings start training camp.

If the Vikings end up picking Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. either at 11 or 23 rather than getting up into the top three or taking McCarthy at four, it’s going to feel like a failure at the time (and certainly would confuse the heck out of me because trading for 23 without a clear answer in the top four seems reckless) but historically speaking it would not be a death knell to their chances at finding a very good quarterback.

In 2020 the fourth and fifth QBs taken were Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts. In 2018 QB5 was Lamar Jackson. In 2014 Jimmy G was QB5. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were QB5 and QB6 in 2011 and both won a lot of games. Of course, there aren’t always five QBs, so that’s just how it played out favorably in a couple years where there were.

Point is, it’s not ideal. You’d rather get Drake Maye at No. 3 and give up everything. But sometimes football works out in funny ways. Maybe they get Penix Jr. and he’s wonderful for Justin Jefferson and then Byron Murphy at DT and he sacks QBs for 10 years.

If they miss out on QBs entirely, now that’s a calamity.

Travis… Do you think the reason the Vikings haven’t traded up to the top 5 yet is they’re waiting to see if Maye goes 2nd? I wonder if it’s between Maye and JJ, so if Maye is gone they don’t want to spend the capital to go to three if they can wait until 4

I’m not really sure of the reason they haven’t trade up yet. There’s a few different theories that make a lot of sense to me. 1) They know Arizona’s pick is for sale so if that’s as far as they can get then they will still be happy with it and there’s no need to rush. They can let New England see the pro days and field offers and then decide if they want to part ways with No. 3. 2) Your theory. Waiting until draft day to see if Maye goes second. If not, then they make the all-in play. Washington looks like they’re going to go with Daniels but it’s not a guarantee.

We can only wait and see how it plays out. It feels like it could be resolved tomorrow or five minutes before Roger Goodell walks out to make the first pick.

Ramsey…. 1) last year a bunch of players complained about the turf at US Bank leading to injuries. IIRC the Wilfs agreed to change it? What's the status on that? 2) You mentioned last week Ivan Pace's personality doesn't lend itself to the green dot. Why is that?

As far as I know the plan was already set in place to change the turf. They might already be working on it or done with it. I haven’t checked to see. There is definitely something to it because the players seem to believe that, though I’m not totally convinced that the Vikings’ turf has caused an above average amount of injuries.

Pace Jr. is a really quiet dude. He was able to handle the green dot duties for a few weeks last year but ideally you want somebody with a big voice that has been around the block a few times to command the defense. Pace Jr. is still young. Maybe he will come out of his shell more as time goes by. It’s not a knock on him, it’s just that some guys are better fit for that duty. Barr was better than Kendricks for it, for example.

Brian… I know you're in the "don't screw around with it; if you want him, get him" camp when it comes to drafting a quarterback, but do you think there's a chance they've identified Penix or Nix as KOC's guy and are going with DT/EDGE/CB at 11 and either trading into the middle of the first or using 23 for their guy at QB?

I would be pretty surprised if there was any other goal in trading with the Texans than trying to go up to the top and pick Drake Maye. But they had to realize you can’t always get your guy in the NFL Draft. I would assume that they either know that the consolation prize is going to be No. 4 overall or they are comfortable with either taking one at 11 or seeing who’s hanging around at 23. That seems pretty risky to me though. What if Denver takes Nix and the Raiders pick Penix? It’s not insane to think about six quarterbacks being taken considering the landscape of things this year with so many QB desperate teams. It feels very, very risky to hope and pray that you’re the only team with a first-round grade on either of those two other QBs.

Anonymous Substack user… Matthew. I want a franchise QB as much as anybody but what do you think the contingency plan is if drafting one is impossible, like the top 4 trade ups won't talk unless JJ is involved. Me; draft the top wide receiver and give 2024 to Darnold. Next year, you have draft capital, cap room, and every quarterback in the world wants to play here.

As much as I’m all about drafting wide receivers, even I would have to say that picking a receiver in the first is too much for this year. This is a crazy deep receiver draft so they can pick one almost anywhere and have a good chance to get a quality player. The two positions that I believe you absolutely have to draft at the top (unless you get absurdly lucky like the Vikings did with Griffen and Hunter) are defensive tackle and edge rusher. If they couldn’t land a QB with either of those first two picks, I’d prefer they go defensive line and then cornerback. All the great defenses have somebody they can trust on elite wide receivers and the Vikings haven’t had that guy since Xavier Rhodes.

The thing about every QB wanting to play here is that sometimes Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford is available and sometimes it’s only the ghost of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.

Not that I’m against more weapons, it’s just a huge price to pay for WR3 or bumping a rising player like Addison to WR3, particularly when you already have Hockenson.

peter… Denver needs a QB in the draft as much as we do. What is their position to trade up. Is this a potential auction for the number 4 QB.

Denver has No. 12 and No. 76 because they traded their second-rounder for Sean Payton. So it would be tough for them to match what the Vikings are bringing to the table. The Giants seem like the biggest threat. At least by the Jimmy Johnson draft chart they could get from No. 6 to No. 4 by giving up just an extra third-round pick. Makes me think the Vikings are going to have to blow out all the draft charts and go bat-bleep crazy if they want to get into the top four. Of course, that’s fine with me if they do that. Go get your guy.

Jeff… How would you feel about the Vikings trading up, to get McCarthy, instead of Maye, if they can’t get up to 2 or 3? I worry about the amount of projection that people are making on McCarthy. I get that he’s only 21, but he doesn’t seem to have traits that equate to a franchise QB. I am always skeptical about the QB who shoots up the board, in the pre-draft process.

I’m of two minds about it. I have the same skepticism as you. Look at where the outside analysts thought he was until way after Michigan was done playing football (per Mock Draft Database):

That means when these folks watched him play they thought he was more of a second-rounder or back end of the first round and then suddenly he shot up into the top 10 once everybody heard at the NFL Combine that he could be a top pick.

With that said, Josh Allen’s consensus spot on big boards was 42nd on February 11 and then he went into the top 15 after the Combine and became one of the best QBs in the NFL.

It’s such an inexact science that the only way I can look at this is: If Kevin O’Connell thinks McCarthy can be his franchise quarterback, then my opinion based on watching him this season doesn’t matter. Even if history suggests nobody, including the league, is good at picking the right QBs, his and Josh McCown’s eyes and instincts for QBs are much better than mine so I’m going to think it’s a good pick. I’ll have questions but I’m not going to be down on it because it’s the right decision and he has a good shot to become a winner here.

Bradley P… What has to happen over the next year for the Vikings to win the division in 2026?

Is the answer as simple as hitting on this draft pick? Probably not because I have trouble thinking the Lions are going to fall off the face of the earth by then and I’m buying Jordan Love (no matter how many Vikings fans try to tell me he just fell backward into last year’s production). The answer is more complicated than that because this division is set up to be a monster for a long time. They need to hit on the quarterback and build the defense, possibly around Brian Flores, to be able to stop the opposing offenses. That’s what made the Vikings a contender from 2015-2019 — they never had a top 5 offense, they were always good at giving Rodgers the business or sacking Stafford 10 times. A lot can change in three years though. Think about all the things we thought were true heading into last year that changed and multiply that by three.

Kyle… Which positions do the Vikings need to upgrade prior to the 2024 season and where could they wait until next offseason when the competitive window really opens?

The guard position for sure. Blake Brandel and Dan Feeney isn’t enough to have legitimate competition. They don’t have a starting left guard and I don’t think Ingram should go into next season locked into the right guard spot. They need like five dudes pushing each other for jobs in camp since they aren’t going to be able to vastly improve by getting a top notch free agent. I’m still thinking the edge rushing spot needs more work and another corner could be needed. WR3 should still be in the mix for a free agent signing. But if we are thinking about this year as another “competitive rebuild” type year, they can take swings at guys at a lot of positions and see if anything sticks.

Rob… If the Vikings aren’t able to trade up (or the guy that O’Connell wants is drafted already) should the Vikings take the best available edge or DT and take either Penix or Nix at 23 OR Same scenario-panic and take Penix/Nix at 11?

I’d prefer they take Penix or Nix at 11 because of the QB hungry teams behind them. They might even have to trade up to take one of those guys if they want them considering who’s sitting behind them. Maybe up to No. 7 with Tennessee?

Can you imagine five QBs going in the first seven picks? I’d be pretty shocked if that actually happened but this year is absolutely nuts with scenarios because there are so many good prospects and so many teams that need QBs.

Josh… As best I can surmise, the question about obtaining Maye vs JJ won’t be a talent/preference issue, but rather a cost issue. In your opinion, How much is too much to give for Maye(11,23,25’ 1st,26’2nd) vs landing JJ (11/23 and a 25’ 3rd) before the benefit of a rookie contract QB outweighs the draft compensation needed to give to get it?

If they have Drake Maye as a guy who could potentially be on the same level as some of the best QBs in the game because of his size, arm talent and playmaking ability, then it’s worth it. If we are talking about the difference between getting the next Eli Manning (that’s who he reminds me of) versus the next Matt Hasselbeck, I’d say just pull the trigger and give up whatever it takes to make sure you get Maye.

Normally this wouldn’t be a take of mine considering the randomness of QB draft analysis but the cost issue is counterbalanced, in my opinion, by the fact they already have an elite receiver, elite left tackle, elite tight end and a budding star No. 2 receiver. That’s usually the hard part (just ask Sam Darnold). Defenses can be built through free agency and with a dash of development with guys like Metellus and Pace Jr. You can’t just go out and get Justin Jefferson or Christian Darrisaw.

That doesn’t mean I’d be down on them if they got McCarthy, it really depends on how big a gap they think it is between the two players.

Glenn… Hi Matthew. Just a thought on possibly getting shutout of the top 4. If the top 3 picks all go qb and the Giants trade up to 4 (Arizona still get Harrison) then what? Do we put all our hopes on a Sam Darnold resurgence? Penix? Nix? Yikes!

Then we panic!