Friday Mailbag: Trade-up scenarios are scary

Vikings fans are a little nervous about recent rumors that they could be involved in a monster move up

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone. Wow, no more football for a long time. What a season it was… for some teams. Well, now we’re into full offseason mode so let’s dive right into your questions…

Ben… What’re your thoughts on JJ McCarthy? He seems to be flying up boards

My first thought is about the mythology of rising draft stock. Two of my favorite websites around draft time are Mock Draft Database and Grinding The Mocks because they track the wild changes in outside opinion when it comes to prospects. Here’s a great example of a player’s “rising” stock: Hendon Hooker.

After the Combine, for some reason, Hooker’s stock went through the roof even though clearly nobody in the league thought he was anywhere close to a first-round pick. He was consistently considered a middle-second type player by the mocks and then he magically became a first-round prospect. What happened? My guess is that one popular draft analyst reported around the Combine and then everyone copycatted that. Oh hey look what I found with a quick little Google search!

I’ve talked to three different people who have evaluated prospects in the NFL (with no connection to the Vikings) about JJ McCarthy and I got three different opinions. The crazy thing about the draft is that it only takes one team to buy in and then poof the guy is a first-round pick. Just look at Daniel Jones.

Personally I don’t see the first-roundness with McCarthy. I feel like I’m looking at Desmond Ridder 2.0 where everyone explains to me why I should love him as a first-rounder but I can’t really put my finger on what his superpower that would make him a franchise QB is supposed to be. (Ridder was 33rd in Mock Draft Database by the way).

By the way, here’s what McCarthy’s chart looks like…

Anyway, my goal in analyzing these things isn’t to try to guess correctly on quarterbacks, it’s to talk about the best direction for the Vikings. If they like McCarthy and take him, then I’ll say it’s a great plan because they should just roll with whoever Kevin O’Connell likes.

Alan… The Vikings have severely neglected d line over the last 10 years. Would going all in on d line with the first 2 picks exponentially help the rest of the defense vs taking a CB at 11?

If they were to bring back Cousins then it would not be crazy at all to spend multiple draft picks on D-line. Everyone would hate it but I’d probably suggest moving down (not to No. 32!) and trying to pick up a little more draft capital because they have so many needs. To your question about which would help most, my answer is: Yes. This defense just needs great players at the most important positions. If you get a great pass rusher, he’s going to cause havoc. If you get a great cornerback, he’s going to make life hell on wide receivers. The last time they were a great defense they had both and right now they have neither. I will say that, in my humble experience, you can manufacture pass rush but if your coverage stinks then say goodnight (see: 2022 and late-season 2023).

Chuck…. I don't think we've talked much at all about JJ's contract, so a quick question on that. Is there a reason I'm missing why the Vikings wouldn't put a huge amount of JJ's cap hit in the first year of a potential extension, like for 2024? Just thinking strategically-if you draft a QB, and you are resetting the roster a bit anyway, why not use that space right away to absorb some of that money. If you figure '25-'27/28 are the years you'd really go for it if you hit on the QB anyways, it seems to me the '24 cap space is best spent there, not to mention the cap only goes up.

That is definitely a strategy you could see, similar to what they did a few years ago with Dalvin Cook. But that’s not the only way to go about it when we’re talking about flexibility down the road. For example, Cooper Kupp had cap hits of $17.8 million and $17.3 million in the first two years of his extension and then it jumps to $29.8 million next year. Except not really because OverTheCap estimates the Rams will be able to restructure and cut that sucker right back down to around $17 million. For those wondering at home, that’s only about 7% of the salary cap, which is why a big JJ contract is not comparable to a big Cousins contract.

Similarly with Tyreek Hill, he’s expected to have a $31 million cap hit in 2024 but a restructure takes it down to around $19 million. Hey, by the way, did the Dolphins build a good roster around a big receiver contract? Did that receiver help the quarterback? Hm.

Anyway, it might not be something that they *need* to do and smaller cap hits in the first two years could allow them to sign other players right away and jumpstart the reboot. How they structure it will depend on their overall offseason approach and what his side is looking for. A five-year deal would obviously be easier to shuffle things around but my expectation is that he’s going to want it to be a bit shorter so he can hit the lottery twice.

Pickle Enjoyer…. I have a friend from college who I fleece by betting against the Vikings every year. He said the following things in the past: 1) Trading Danielle Hunter in 2023 would be like trading Michael Jordan 2) The Atlanta Falcons are in the exact same situation as the Vikings going into 2024 3) Before the 2021 season, there was only a slight difference between Reiff and Rashod Hill. 4) OLB is important in the 4-3 so the Barr contract was smart 5) The Zimmer/Spielman regime built the right culture by always trying to get into the playoffs. Rank these delusional statements from most lucid to most stark raving insane

Well, Mr. Pickle, I think the closest your friend got to the truth was the Barr contract. Did it turn out to be good? No. But if they didn’t have a super expensive quarterback then it might not have been such a big storyline that Barr was overpaid and I’ve always believed in Barr’s value overall going well beyond the PFF metrics. He was the green dot guy on top-five defenses in either yards or points from 2015-2019. It’s hard to sell me on the idea that the guy calling the shots out there wasn’t making a difference. Plus, we never count the throws that don’t happen because of his wing span in his coverage or by him being in the right spots.

The others are tough. Trading Hunter is more complicated than whether he’s good. He’s absolutely good. But the NFL is an economics game and they let an asset go to waste that is now about to either become extremely expensive or go somewhere else. Reiff and Hill are different categories of player. Hill could give you five weeks a year and that’s valuable. Reiff was a proven 17-game quality starter. Zimmer and Spielman’s “culture” was chaos the entire time I’ve been here but I’d say this: Culture is usually as good as your W-L record. Oh and the Falcons aren’t in the same spot as the Vikings, that’s as simple as looking at the current players under contract.

So I’d rank them as 2, 3, 5, 1, 4.

Maybe we need to start this new bit where you guys ask me how bad your friends’ Vikings opinions are.

Travis… I am growing more and more skeptical of trading up. Unlike San Francisco, I don’t think the Vikings will be as quick to “bounce back” from a miscalculation of their QB of choice in that scenario (presumably, Daniels or Maye if we believe the majority of mock drafts). I think that we should take the best QB we can without sacrificing a first round pick next year, how ever that is accomplished; we can always try again next year. If we lose future draft capital AND the 2024 QB pick is a bust? That will be the Wilfs worst nightmare. Which do you prefer? Trade up or stand pat/trade down, as long as there is a 2024 QB drafted that is a true shot at finding the franchise QB?

You’re right that the risk is enormous. Historically speaking it’s very difficult to make an argument for trading up if guys like Nix, McCarthy and/or Penix Jr. are actually first-round prospects. Which QBs are going to work out is the hardest thing in sports to predict. In 2020 the first five QBs all hit and then in 2021 only one of the five is going to sign a second contract with their team. In 2018 there were two superstars and they were the third and fifth QBs taken and then in 2019 only the first guy was good.

But if the Vikings only feel that one of the top three is worth it in this class then they have no other option and they’ll just have to throw caution to the wind and go for it (if there’s a trade-up opportunity).

Personally I’d trade up for Drake Maye and otherwise just roll with Nix at No. 11 if they like him.

JimD… One of the top 3 QB at the Cardinals pick #4 for the three first rounders and miscellaneous picks/players, or offer a trade for Kyler Murray for two firsts? If you wouldn't trade for Kyler is there any QB that is gettable for the same haul that we would send to move up to get one of the top 3 QBs?

I’m probably higher on Kyler Murray than most people. He’s still 26 years old and good start to his career before it got derailed by ineptitude and his ACL injury. I can imagine how exciting he would be if paired with Justin Jefferson. In 2021 Kyler had a 141.4 QB rating when throwing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins. The contract would be a pretty major issue but one of the things we have to keep in mind when it comes to contracts is thinking that every QB deal is like Cousins. Because Cousins’ contracts were so short it was always very difficult for the team to manipulate them. Murray’s deal can be restructured for four straight years to cut his cap hits in half.

Still it’s a really hard question because the benefits of getting a QB on a rookie deal are so massive.

Denton… After the TX game Penix seemed like a good fit for the Vikes at 11 but now he seems no longer in the conversation as a 1st rounder. Is his drop legit or is he currently under valued?

Yeah, you can definitely see the impact the national championship had on his draft stock, which is honestly pretty silly considering how much better Michigan was than every other program in the country. Their defense made everyone look horrible. But here’s something worth noting: Penix Jr. was never all that high in the mock draft universe. He was always considered a fringe first round prospect.

With that said, if the Vikings wanted to trade back up into the first round to take him Teddy Bridgewater style, I’d be into it. He has a monster arm and high character.

Rob…. With Zimmer being hired as Cowboys DC it made me reflect back on his tenure. 2014 - 2017 were outstanding, one of the best coaching jobs post Bud Grant. However one could argue that 2018 - 2021 were almost equally as terrible in terms of results vs talent on the roster. What are your thoughts on 2018 being one of the most disappointing seasons and worst coaching jobs in Vikings history. Looking back they had Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph, Cousins and Dalvin all in their absolute primes! On D they had Hunter, Griffen, Joseph, Sheldon Richardson, Barr, Kendricks, Rhodes and Harrison Smith also in their primes. That team went 8-7-1. I could argue the roster was just as stacked as the 49ers team that just made the SB.

I would agree that the 2018 season goes on the Mount Rushmore of Vikings disappointing seasons. In hindsight it’s pretty shocking that Zimmer wasn’t fired after that. The whole John DeFilippo debacle alone was a fireable offense.

Of course, we can’t let the quarterback of GM off the hook. The no-shows against Buffalo, New England, Seattle and Chicago twice from Cousins killed them. It would be totally wrong to blame that all on Zimmer since it’s who Kirk has always been. And Rick not stocking up the O-line for Cousins was negligent.

There is a lesson in those 2018 and 2019 teams: All the talent they had still wasn’t enough. Do they think they’re going to sign a defensive tackle and draft an edge rusher and get back to championship weekend when those teams couldn’t make it?

Jeff…. Our defensive roster has gaping holes and is awfully thin. I want to see us have enough talent to actually compete for a championship before we draft a QB. I don't want to waste a single year of that rookie contract. That said, I'd swap my 11th pick with anyone for their pick, a 2nd & a couple 3rds (or whatever it takes to make it "fair"). Draft a couple edge guys, a 3-tech DI & a bunch of CB's. I'd also re-sign Hunter if at all possible. I think our offense is mostly set and can be filled in with veteran FA's next off-season. Sign a bridge guy and look to draft a QB next season. The suggestion of 3 first's to move up to get a top prospect will be true again next year. Thoughts?

I never look at the first season of a QB’s career as wasting a year of their rookie deal. That’s always a transition year, even when a team performs well with their guy. The Vikings have waited and waited and waited at the quarterback position and I don’t see any reason to wait any longer when they are set up with a fairly high draft pick and a good quarterback class. And if they’re not going to pick a QB, trading out of the first round is a bad idea because that’s where you get difference-making players. That was my issue with the Vikings trading down in 2022.

I don’t look at roster building as how many decent guys you can accumulate, it’s often how many great players you can put together. Filling in the rest is not that hard once you have the cornerstones.

If they sign a bridge QB and win nine games and there’s only two first-round QBs in 2025, we just continue the Viking cycle of never having THE guy at quarterback forever.

Alan…. Is it safe to say that regardless of what the Bears are going to do with the 1st overall pick they HAVE to say they’re taking QB in order to have leverage for a trade out?

The Bears doing anything other than taking Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick would be insane. Everything they have done has led them to this point to pick Williams. Even if they wanted to take someone else and listened to offers, the team trading up is obviously going to be doing it for Williams so there’s no leverage advantage to be gained on either side. The likelihood is that there is no price that anyone can match short of trading them Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes.

Don…. Sentiment has been that locking up a multi-year $40m per year fully guaranteed contract for Cousins is a fiscally irresponsible move as the Vikes really need to spread that money around for several others. Yet then it is said we must lock up Jefferson with a multi-year highest paid non-QB contract fully guaranteed - which does the exact same thing in locking up a very large sum of money over an extended amount of time. So are people talking out of both sides of their mouth here?

Not at all — for like a dozen reasons. First, Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL. Cousins is not the best quarterback in the NFL, yet his cap hits have always been reflective of the top QBs. Jefferson’s contract will be long enough to give them flexibility in the early parts of the deal and future options to restructure. Cousins has only ever been on short-term, fully (or nearly fully) guaranteed money, which makes it very difficult to rework the deal to save cap space.

Observe the percentages of the salary cap that Cousins has taken up:

As high as 17% of the cap. Last year only three WRs had cap hits that cleared 8%.

There is no reason to conflate these things. In terms of average annual salary the 49ers have the third highest paid left tackle, seventh highest paid receiver, highest paid running back, highest paid edge rusher, sixth highest paid defensive tackle and 12th highest paid cornerback. How did they do it? First, they set up the contracts to carry lower hits in their window to win and they have a quarterback who makes $880,000.

Jefferson’s contract will not restrict this team’s ability to build a complete roster but he will absolutely be one of the reasons that they are great if they get there.

Jason… What about embracing the rebuild in what is clearly going to be a stacked division? If they aren’t convinced about the qbs available at 11, trade down. Accumulate picks. Let Cousins walk. Sign a bridge qb to a two year deal. Then just have a bad year and hope you are picking high enough next year to the future qb. The only real problem I see is Jefferson. They would need to extend him before the draft. I am just tired of them deliberately being mired in the middle.

Philosophically you have a good argument. Practically speaking it does not seem plausible that they would be willing to take another step back after falling from 13 to 7 wins. I would say that the quarterback they pick would be landing in a really excellent position with JJ/JA/TJ and the O-line so they do not need to build a foundation for them like, say, the Patriots.

I also don’t think this quarterback thing is going to play into the Jefferson discussion as much as people think. It’s incredibly favorable for JJ to agree to a deal rather than playing on his fifth-year option. It would be a tremendous risk for him to pass up on a massive guaranteed pay day just because the QB situation isn’t clear. DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin were in similar spots and they both signed.

Matt L… So all along it seemed Kwesi strategy was getting cap in order while remaining competitive with this offseason as really the ultimate decision point of which way to go next (and it made sense to me). Now that we are here, Im starting to ask myself how wise a strategy having 2 of ur top 5 players in kirk/hunter as FAs (with no ability to tag) with monster cap hits even if they walk along with JJ having tremendous amount of leverage in negotiations. Seems like Vikings are in a tough spot overall regarding possession of any type of leverage in these individual situations. Thoughts?

It’s fine to take those dead cap hits from Cousins and Hunter for one year. Four playoff teams had more than $50 million in dead cap last year. The fact that it goes away after 2024 makes it less problematic because any contracts they sign in free agency can be pushed out a bit with bigger hits coming in ‘25 and ‘26. If this was going to be an issue for years to come then I’d say it was a problem. That would have been the case had they kept guys like Thielen, Cook, Smith, Kendricks etc.

If they bring back Cousins and Hunter and spend $50-$60 million in cap space on those two players in 2024 and kick a bunch of money down the road then it’s going to have short and long-term implications. If not they will have lots of flexibility soon enough.

Josh… Kirk’s dilemma, JJ’s contract drama, and Hunter’s likely departure…Not really great headlines for the week. In your opinion how much of these stories are coming from the Vikings FO vs agents and other sources? It seemed like last year we had far less of these Viking FO source leaks, if any.

Couldn’t tell ya. I can’t speculate on where reporters got their information. All I can say is that none of this is resolved yet. Teams have post-Super Bowl meetings to formulate their offseason strategies and then go to the Combine and meet with agents and talk to other folks around the league and then have their plans in place. Anything before that is guesswork.

Kyle… Is there a correct strategy for the coin toss with the new playoff overtime rules? I understand the idea of taking the ball second so you know what you need in terms of scoring. But I also can imagine the criticism Shanahan would have faced if the 49ers had taken the ball second, the game was tied after two overtime possessions and Mahomes had the first shot at winning in sudden death.

The folks that came up with the rule did their best to make it as even and fair as possible so I looked at the “controversy” over Shanahan kicking it as being analysts really needing something to talk about coming out of the Super Bowl. If the 49ers stop them on fourth-and-1 they are getting rings. If they hold KC to a field goal, they could have won it with a field goal on the next drive. Plus their defense was on the field forever just before OT. It feels similar to the Campbell debates from championship weekend. After we know the result it’s super easy to second guess.

Carter… Thoughts on repeating the RGIII+Kirk, Lance+Purdy strategy and taking a 1st round QB + someone like Rattler late? Obviously the late guy is a super low probability thing, but if it bumps your odds up by 2% of getting starter caliber play, you gotta take it considering the importance of the position, right? Especially if we trade up in the first, even more important that we walk away with our guy for the next 5+ years.

Sure, it’s fine if they want to pick another QB who they really like in the late rounds. It’s not something I’m going to criticize them for not doing and I’ve mostly been against the mid/late round QB because the chances are so low but I get your logic.

Speedi… You stated a solid rookie qb will provide 30 million of surplus value so its worth giving up 2025 and 2026 first rd choices. Why aren't you factoring in the surplus value of the 2 choices given up? Example, we give up 2 1st rd picks to move up an get a top qb who is 80% likely to someday be worth a 40 million contract. Our expected value EV is 80% times $30 million for 24 million. Alternatively we stick with the 11th and draft a qb with only 50% success expectation. So that's an EV of $15 million. But the 2 picks we retain have surplus value. Say 10 million per player and a 70% success rate. So EV on those 2 picks combined is 20 million times 70% or 14 million. So staying with the 11th pick has a total EV of 29 million beating the trade up decision EV of 24 million by 5 million. Just illustrating the impact of those 2 extra 1st rd pickups we give up.

Whew. That’s a lot of numbers you just threw at me. You are right that there’s surplus value in every first-round pick. The difference when it comes to surplus is that quarterback is the only position where non-elite players get paid elite money. So PFF looked at this a few years ago and QB had $31 million of surplus value for a second-tier QB and $10 million of a second-tier defensive tackle. Sure, if you were to use those picks to take two elite players and they made $25 million/year then the surplus is the same or better but even two good players isn’t enough.

Nobody thinks giving up three firsts is ideal. There’s a good argument for staying at 11 if there’s a quarterback they like similarly to the guys at the top. But if they did spend all that and got a good QB they would have five years of his rookie deal to use the cap space to make up the difference from what they spent to get him.

Here’s the other point: If the odds are significantly different from the guy projected at 3 vs. 11 of being truly great, then it’s worth it. You can throw around all those dollar figures but a great QB transcends any value discussion.

Dave G…. Most top NFL teams are built around either: 1. An elite QB Or 2. Elite DL/OL which makes all skill players including QB look better I believe it may be more realistic for the Vikings to get elite at the OL /DL positions, working with a low cost QB, continue taking swings at QB in later rounds (KOC earn your money/rep and find/develop one) and we would remain relevant as long as OL/ Dl are excellent. We seem to be good at identifying the other offensive skill spots. What do you think?

So you’d rather pick up Gardner Minshew and draft a 5th round quarterback and draft a defensive tackle than take swings at a franchise QB? I don’t see how that gets you anywhere unless there’s insane luck involved and you land Tom Brady/Dak Prescott/Brock Purdy. Most 5th rounders — like 99% — look like Jaren Hall.

The best teams in the league mostly just drafted QBs in the first round and built around them. They just happen to be in the AFC.

Marv… "The 2024 draft revolves around JJ McCarthy" -- Trever Sikkema, PFF draft analyst

Could be. Or maybe not. Who knows.

Mark…. Manny said on your last podcast together he would give up 3 firsts and a player to move up to the third draft position. My question is when is too much too much? It seems to me that compromises your future too much. If your #3 isn’t transcendent you could end up like Denver will be the next few years. Your lousy season only befits the team you traded with because they get the top prospect you could have had 3 years in a row. Plus this team needs so many players to truly make a difference cap space can’t entirely overcome that you’ll also need stars that come through the draft. And they’d be picking low. I think they have to stick with #11 or move up less not to completely mortgage their future. But this is the Vikings. When have they thought long term and acted accordingly?

I’m noticing a lot of you are afraid of trading the farm to move up in the first round. I understand the value issue and I understand the potential implications if the pick goes wrong. Would it be better to just land your franchise QB at No. 11? Sure it would. I talked about this when it came to Mac Jones a few years ago — picking him without trading up was valuable. But if that’s not possible and Cousins doesn’t come back, when will you have another opportunity to move up like this?

Realistically any QB you draft going badly is probably going to mess up the franchise for a while. If they want to really go for the 10-year guy, then go for it. It’s not like you can never, ever recover if you screw up a QB pick.

Ken… So if QB's have a chance to reach the Superbowl/NFC championship game (excellence) one out of 10 years/times with your average QB (Cousins) with that scale you've used in the past do other positions have similar equations and I'm guessing positionally value is part of that. Or are they possibly just adder's to the overall chances to get to the super bowl? I think I asked that right

I’m not sure I understand the question here Ken, I’m sorry. The way I look at quarterback tiers is that you have guys like Manning/Brady/Mahomes who will have 10 or more chances to win a Super Bowl in their career, guys who will give you five chances like Eli Manning or Matt Ryan or Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, guys who are good but might only give you one shot like Kirk Cousins and guys who have no shot. That only applies to quarterbacks because nobody else is even close in terms of value that they bring to a team. A top five left tackle ever, Joe Thomas, had zero shots because his QBs were always bad. That’s just how the sport works.

Joel… Fair to say that the Wilf’s should have gone with the Poles approach in retrospect?

I guess that depends on whether you’d throw back the fun 2022 season to be in Chicago’s seat right now. Safe to say most would do that.

Ben… Let’s say the Vikings move on from Cousins and draft a QB in the first round. At what point can we make a clear determination that the pick was a success or failure??

I’d say by 2026 we would know for sure. If they are ready to compete for a championship heading into that season, it worked. If not, it didn’t. Though we could certainly have an answer faster than that if it works.

Bradley P… How do the approaches of the 2022 and the 2023 drafts tell about the front office. The optimist in me wants to believe that last year was more indicative of future drafts.

Maybe. They have eight picks this year and two in the top 100. How are we really going to know if they got better at drafting or not? If one of those guys works out? Think of it this way: Let’s say that you throw 250 golf balls onto the ground of all different qualities and brands and you can see the label and pick the ball up once and toss it around before you choose to play with it before choosing which ones you want. But you only get eight and 31 of your friends get to do the same thing. You’re all going to run for the best ones, maybe you get the one you really wanted, maybe not. Maybe it felt good when you picked it up but the inside was actually cracked and it sucks when you hit it. Maybe you get eight great golf balls, maybe zero. That’s the draft.

Never Played Madden Is Powell good enough to be WR3 or does this need to be addressed in FA or the draft?

I like Powell a lot as WR4 and PR1. They need to find more of an impact player who can handle 75 targets to replace Osborn.

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