Friday Mailbag: Trade ideas and drafting directions

Vikings fans are wondering which free agents might stay and how trades could play into the offseason

---

By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone!

Well, a few news items to start us out with: Jared Allen is going to the Hall of Fame and Kevin O’Connell is officially Coach of the Year. The voters got both of these right. Allen is one of the great pass rushers in history and KOC’s 2024 was one of the best coaching jobs we have seen in the NFL in a long time. Yes, I know how it ended, but the way he worked with Sam Darnold and galvanized the locker room, was exceptional and deserving of the award.

Alright, onto your questions…

Brad P… If it comes down to one or the other, who would you trade, Darnold or JJ?

There’s no hesitation in the answer, it’s Darnold. I’m a much bigger Darnold defender than Vikings fans are because he played incredibly well this year and I didn’t think it was a fluke. He has 44 TD 16 INT and a 99.5 QB rating since 2022 and people still act like his performance from when he was 2018 is the “real” Darnold. But when you draft a QB 10th overall and the first impression of the kid is really, really good, I’m not trading that away. He’s too talented and his contract is way too favorable to give him away for anything short of a franchise QB in return.

I will say, however, that we always overestimate players we’ve never seen before. I’ve already noticed that a lot of fans are setting the bar for McCarthy starting next year (if he does) at being better than Darnold. That’s not going to be an easy task, my friends.

Brent O… I know that to the Vikings' front office's credit, they keep negotiations really quiet and out of the public, but I am a little concerned we haven't heard much about anything with Cam Bynum, Byron Murphy, or possibly Shaq Griffin. What are the odds that each of them is back next year?

Most teams have their meetings about free agent strategy right before the NFL Combine. You’re not going to hear much right now. If I’m taking a swing at the odds, I would give Bynum a 50-50 shot, Murphy 30% and Griffin 10% chance. Bynum’s relationship with his teammates is so strong that it might influence him to come back even if it’s not the absolute max money he can make. It’s going to be hard for the Vikings to match what some other team will be willing to pay Murphy and Griffin was more of a placeholder for 2024 (though he did a good job).

Eldon.. If they decide to tag and trade Darnold what do you think the return would be? Do you think it might be better to keep Darnold to start the season and trade him when they decide McCarthy is ready??

The mark that I would be trying to reach if he’s on the franchise tag is a second-round pick in 2025 and third-round pick in 2026.

In a world with no salary cap, it would make total sense to keep Darnold around and have a training camp competition and if McCarthy is even equal to Darnold then you trade Darnold to the most QB-needy team. But that’s a hard thing to pull off. Another team has to want him and be able to fit his $41 million franchise tag under the cap. The concern is that the Vikings get stuck holding the bag with a $41 million backup.

Maybe if Darnold signed a 3-year contract that had a $10 million cap hit for 2025, then it would be a lot easier to do.

Brian_H… I've always been a big believer in getting the best players, period. A good coach should be able to adjust their approach to the talent they have on the roster. Given that approach, what would it look like to put a traditional 4-3 edge into this defense? Perhaps one from Cleveland.

Myles Garrett isn’t the type of player who is scheme specific in any way. Every single team, every single defense since the dawn of time in football would want Myles Garrett. In Brian Flores’s system, Danielle Hunter was extremely productive and Jonathan Greenard mostly played a traditional pass rushing role with a little bit of coverage tomfoolery mixed in but not much. I’m sure Flores would move Garrett around a little (I’ve seen him rush over the A-gap before). Mostly, you just put him up against the other team’s left tackle and let him do his thing.

If Garrett was on this team with Greenard and Van Ginkel, they would be be single most terrifying third down defense in the NFL. Anything short of a top 3 defense would be pretty much shocking. The only problem is what they would have to give up in order to get Garrett. Would the Browns take Sam Darnold, Dallas Turner and the 24th overall pick? The Vikings are the only team who can trade them a quarterback.

Roger N… With improvements on the OL with Darrisaw’s return and FA/ draft pickups do you expect the Vikings to release CJ Ham and Josh Oliver for more cap room?

They can restructure Oliver and cut his cap hit in half. Plus, he’s a good player and he’s in his prime. Usually guys like that stay. I would be surprised if they cut Ham. They would only save $2.6 million and he’s still a key special teamer, leader and good pass protector. I’ve never felt like this offense really knew how to use him in the run game the same way that Stefanski and Kubiak did but he’s carved out a different role in the pass pro game over the last few years.

Substack user… Hey Matthew, Thank you for keeping us engaged during this slow period! Two questions: 1) How big a loss is Udinski, in your opinion? 2) Do you anticipate KOC bringing on a new coach to improve the run game? Or just focus on IOL and/or RB upgrades to better execute his system?

Thank you for reading along. 1) Udinski is certainly a hit to the coaching staff that they probably didn’t expect. There seemed to be a real synergy between KOC, McCown and Udinski when it came to teaching the QBs the offense. However, he probably did his most important work getting JJ McCarthy up to speed last year. Teams lose good young coaches, that’s the biz.

2) We haven’t heard anything about changes to the coaching staff. My issue with the run-game coordinator situation is that he’s not part of the O-line staff, he’s also the RBs coach. I do not like when the run-game coordinator is anybody outside of the O-line room because that’s where everything really happens in the run game and O-line coaches know what their guys can and can’t execute.

To be fair to Curtis Modkins, the two main RBs averaged 4.5 yards per carry without a dominating O-line. The team’s YPC was brought down by Darnold QB kneels and Ty Chandler running for 3.3 YPC.

Mateo… If the Vikings were to acquire Kupp, what would be your thoughts on trading Addison for picks or another player? -His stock is high -Will be very expensive in two years (would be hard to pay both him and JJ top of market deals) -Off field issues / potential suspension looming

If the Rams were offering Kupp and a 1st for Addison, I would do it. I’m not completely against trading Addison because the only untouchable player on the team wears No. 18 and I think Jefferson is so good that he could have average receivers around him and they would look much better than that (see: Osborn, KJ) because of the attention he draws. I was as upset as anyone last year about the timing of his DUI and I remember saying that if they bailed on him that I wouldn’t say a peep against it. I still feel that way. His history suggests he’s a liability off the field.

That said, unless they think there’s no changing the off-field stuff, I’m not in a hurry to trade him. Addison improved this year and I think there’s even another step as he continues to grow into his body (he’s 23). Unless a team is going to go crazy, I’d much rather see him continue to grow into a really good receiver. Look at how the Packers struggled to consistently get guys open — you want more really good receivers, not less. Fans seem to want every player that will eventually get a contract to be put in a rocket ship and fired off into the sun. We need to stop trying to get rid of every player who makes money — or who will eventually make money. The salary cap is very high and Amazon is buying more football in the future, not less. It’ll be OK.