By Matthew Coller
Happy bye week, everybody! Hope you enjoy your relaxed weekend of watching football. Let’s dive into your questions…
scampinaround… Do you think it’s more likely they trade for an RB to beef up that position group or find a replacement for Donovan Jackson like Cam Robinson was for Darrisaw, or both? With the 5th from JJM and a potential Juaun Jennings trade after OBJ signed, it seems like they have a lot of flexibility for one or two moves.
From my perspective, I’d like to see them bolster the offensive line and the backfield. The problem with the O-line is finding options for starters. I’ve been looking over which 2027 free agents on bad teams might be available and the answer is: Not that many. Maybe Teven Jenkins from the Browns or Chris Paul from the Commanders. I suppose they could try for former Gopher John Michael Schmitz if they wanted to bump Brandel to guard (but that’s not my favorite idea).
Running back just has more options like Tony Pollard, Rachaad White, Tyjae Spears, Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, Sean Tucker etc.
I would agree with you that they have a lot of flexibility to make moves. The question is how many teams are going to be OK with selling. It might be a bunch or it might only be a couple.
Also: I’m going to beat this drum as the deadline approaches…. more pass rush / D-line help.
Rad… Coller, you’ve been brought in as a consultant to help the undefeated Vikings bolster their roster for a playoff run. Considering fit, salary cap and likely trade cost, which of these players would make the most sense: Jessie Bates or Amani Hooker at safety, David Edwards or Ben Bredeson at left guard, Tony Pollard at running back, or Khalil Mack at edge?
My spending limit would be the extra 2027 third-round pick acquired from the Eagles and fifth-round pick from the Giants. Would you pursue anyone on this list within that budget, or is there another player you’d target?
Some of the guys you’re talking about are on multi-year contracts that I’d be wary about like David Edwards. The ones that stand out from your list are Tony Pollard and Khalil Mack.
Pollard has been a consistently good running back with four straight seasons of 1,000+ yards. I think he’d be great as part of a trio and a backup plan in case either Mason or Jones gets hurt.
Mack is still grading pretty well by PFF despite being 36. He’s played in lots of different types of systems.
I’m working on a list for another day with more players but I’ve wondered about defensive tackles Daron Payne or Malik Collins as third down rushers.
Derrick K… After two trick plays in the last game, did KOC get it out of his system for 2026? Although one almost worked, I think we could all do without seeing a trick play again.
It’s not so much that I’m against trick plays, it’s really the timing and thought process behind some of them that I’ve been flummoxed by. Trying to throw a pass to Kirk Cousins against the Giants or having the tight end pitch the ball to Josh Dobbs — these are just ridiculous decisions that had very little chance to succeed.
Doing a reverse back to Kyler and having him throw it makes a lot of sense. But trying to throw the ball back to the QB in a spot where you need one or two positive plays to be in field goal range and end the game is baffling. Murray was out there completing every pass and Jones was wearing down the Saints’ D-line. Just take care of business.
O’Connell needs a trick play checklist. 1) If it puts your QB at risk in any way, don’t do it. 2) If your QB is in a rhythm and your offense is moving the ball, don’t do it. 3) If it involves somebody who basically never throws the football, make sure they fully understand how to throw the ball away.
Jason… Are the corners underrated? Traditional wisdom says you beat a blitz by throwing fast but that hasn’t been happening. It might just be my reaction to national media takes, but the two starters seem to be playing great.
Isaiah Rodgers might be the most underappreciated player in the league for the way he’s contributed to the No. 1 defense. He’s the highest PFF graded player on the defense currently. He has been targeted 20 times and allowed just eight receptions into his coverage for 31 yards. Teams have had a little more success against Murphy Jr. in terms of completion percentage but he has three INTs and is extremely important to the communication of the defense. Not to mention that James Pierre has been really good too.
I think it’s easy to overlook these guys because the blitz gets so much attention. Not to mention that they don’t play man-to-man coverage, which means the broadcast isn’t going to be talking non stop about CB vs. WR one-on-one matchups.
These fellas are really going to be tested in the coming weeks as they play some great quarterbacks and receivers. We’ll see how it looks then but thus far they’ve been an outstanding unit.
Arin J… Hi Matthew, proof of concept the NO game opened eyes overall a fantastic game for Murray. His scrambling was so much better than previous games it looked like the player we saw in 2024 and back. As far as how high are we on this season, I would put it at guaranteed playoff and a possible title game, not super bowl ready. I need to see games against tougher offences and see if the defense is the best. Also need more consistency from the offense against better defense ls however I see the vision and like it. To me Chicago, LA San Fran are the real contenders, I put Chicago in there because of Williams and their defense is improving. La and sf will depend on health do you have another NFC team in mind?
That’s fair. If this team had Josh Allen, we’d be assuming that 5-0 pretty much locked them into Super Bowl contention but we have to see them really prove it on both sides of the ball against tougher opponents before we can say that they are truly deserving of the “Super Bowl-caliber” label.
I’d have San Francisco in their own tier right now as the favorite. We’ve seen Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy do this before and they can do it again.
After that, I’d say that the Rams, Seahawks, Lions, Packers and Bears all belong in the same category of the Vikings as teams that definitely have some flaws but enough talent to make a serious run. Remember, the Packers are getting Micah Parsons back and that makes them a totally different defense.
Reid… How would you rank our trade needs in a pie chart? I would sort of expect RB, LG, and possibly WR3 to occupy the bulk of the %’s... Any other positions I’m missing? Who are some realistic candidates for each position do you think?
I don’t mean to cop out on the realistic candidates, but I think we need more time to really know who’s got a chance to be available. The deadline isn’t until November 10th, so there could be serious shuffling in the standings before then.
As far as positions, doing this pie chart style is a little weird because they can trade for more than one but I’ll be brave and take a shot at it. I’ll go with 50% guard, 20% running back, defensive line depth and 10% wide receiver.
Pickle Enjoyer… Rank the positions that we might target before the deadline in order of importance. Please.
I would rank it as 1) guard 2) RB 3) DT/edge 4) WR
Things can change in the coming weeks though.
Brad L…Who is your first quarter of the season MVP? Who do you predict it to be at the end of the season?
Will Reichard certainly deserves a lot of attention for that, as does Myles Price. Aside from them, I’d probably go with Blake Cashman. Everything starts with him at linebacker. The blitzing along with Wilson, his ability to get back in coverage and stop underneath stuff and the relentlessness vs. the run. He’s been an absolute monster. Jalen Redmond is also in the mix there.
By the end of the season they really need it to be Justin Jefferson.
Bill B… Based on Seattle’s past trade deadline activity, how do you see that influencing Teasley’s approach to the market?
I would guess that the addition of Rashid Shaheed being such a massive difference maker for the Seahawks left a big impression on Teasley. One player can be the difference between getting over the hump and not. He can’t give up all the future draft capital but a fourth+fifth like what Seattle moved for Shaheed is more than reasonable to shore up the O-line or add one more pass rusher.
Bradley P… How has Kyler’s trajectory thus far compared to Kirk (when he was first in the system) and Sam?
How do you think Max Bredeson has looked so far? Has the drop off from Ham been as big as it seems?
It’s really difficult to compare because Kyler’s really only played three games and the first one was atrocious and the other two have been legitimately solid. Kirk had a great start vs. Green Bay in 2022 and then ran into some troubles with consistently making the throws of the KOC offense. It wasn’t until Hockenson arrived that he got comfortable.
Darnold came out throwing flames pretty much from Week 2 on. That was a very fast adjustment. So it’s probably closer to Kirk. The biggest thing is just KOC and Kyler appearing to see things the same way over the last two weeks.
I’d say that Max Bredeson has done a good job with the alignments and motions. He seems well prepared from a mental standpoint about where he’s supposed to go on a given play. I think being as good as CJ Ham is going to take a while. He’s still pretty clearly getting used to tracking down and sustaining blocks on NFL players. I wouldn’t say it’s been bad by any means, just that he’s going to probably start getting the hang of it as the season goes along.
Ramsey K… How do you balance the obvious rhythm that Kyler found himself in during the saints game with the very real misses (Bartholomew on the trick play, Jennings on what should have been his first read according to the broadcast before the field goal)? You and others have said that he played really well. I’ll grant the scrambles and the throws to Jefferson, but without having watched the all-22, isn’t there a lot of meat still left on the bone?
I can’t see how many snaps Caleb Banks and Domonique Orange have played recently, but I’ve noticed a couple of snaps per game where the former is knifing into the backfield and I know Orange had the big play in week one but has had 0 tackles in the last three weeks. What’s your quick scouting report on their progress?
I would say this: When you watch the All-22 back of almost any QB, you’re going to see receivers that they should have targeted. It’s way easier from the bird’s eye view than it is actually playing on the field. I’ve never watched a game where I didn’t spot a few yards left out there.
The same thing goes for the miss to Bartholomew. He was wide open and it’s definitely a miss but when we’re talking about going 24-for-30 and averaging 7.6 YPA with zero Turnover-Worthy Plays, I’m not sure what more you could want.
Is there still meat on the bone though? Yes. He only went 2-for-5 when throwing intermediate passes (10-19 yards). I’d say that’s the area where he can still get more comfortable in the offense.
In terms of Banks and Orange, they haven’t played much in the last two games because the defense has only been on the field for about 80 plays. Banks has one or two plays every game where he just throws a guy and makes a play. Orange flashes some quickness and strength.
Neither player is really ready to play large numbers of snaps yet though. Banks doesn’t have the pad level thing down yet and can get pushed around and Orange is also still figuring out the leverage thing and has to make some more plays.
Both are going to need time but we’ll be looking for signs of progress as we go along.
Their youth is the reason I’d be thinking about a defensive line acquisition for the Vikings at the deadline though.
Brent K… Hi Matthew. Here’s a potentially meaty topic that might be a good one for the bye week. On Monday, Mike Sando at The Athletic showed a chart of cumulative EPA by game for the Vikings during KOCs tenure, with separate lines for the defense, offense and ST. Sando was pointing out the BFlo effect. In fact, the chart showed that the defense has delivered nearly all of the positive EPA for the Vikings over KOCs time. I was shocked by the overall negative cumulative EPA by the offense, which has been trending down even further over the 10 game win streak. So here’s my questions:
- how does EPA really work, and is it a reliable metric over time to look at each phase of the team? (Accurate but not necessarily precise). Are there major limitations to EPA such as game situations where you might run out the clock with the lead instead of scoring?
- assuming cumulative EPA is reliable, it seems to support overall fan frustration with the offense. How much of that is the revolving QB vs. play caller? Even Darnold’s 14 win season doesn’t show a major upward trend in EPA from the offense. Are there other reasons the offense has struggled to consistently generate positive EPA?
- The Vikings ST have always been decent, and it looks like you can see how Will Reichard and Miles Price have tipped the EPA trend upward.
- the BFlo defensive EPA is stunning. Are any other teams close to that on offense or defense over his tenure at the Vikings?
Lots of questions. Maybe this is a good article for next offseason, but inquiring minds want to know your thoughts. Love your content!
The simplest way I can explain EPA is this: It’s production vs. situation. If you are at the 1-yard line, you probably score 80% of the time, so your EPA would be like 5.0. If you score, you get six points, so that’s 1.0 added (these are examples, not exact numbers). If you are at the 50-yard line with first-and-10, you are expected to score 2.5 points per drive. If you get a 25-yard gain and then your expected points goes up to 3.5, you get 1.0 added.
Make sense?
Does it tell a story? You betcha. Every team to make the Super Bowl in the last 10 years except one has a top 10 passing EPA. The No. 1 EPA on defense last year? The Seattle Seahawks.
So that Sando stat tells us that B-Flo’s effect is unbelievable and if O’Connell hadn’t hired him as the DC, then he might be coaching the Arizona Cardinals right now.
The 2024 season had such bad rushing numbers that it dragged down the EPA. The passing game was 6th in total EPA.
Here’s the thing to be careful about with EPA: It is not a particularly predictive stat. It tells you the results but it doesn’t always point you in the right direction. We all know that the Vikings’ offense has been terrible for the last 10 games. We don’t need EPA or any other stat to know that. But EPA doesn’t factor in who’s playing.
So I don’t think EPA says much about where the offense can go. We’re going to find that out.
Personally, I think a lot of analysts are leaning way too much on EPA lately. It’s a tool, not the be-all-end-all like it’s being treated.
Fun side note: EPA was invented by former NFL player Virgil Carter.