Friday Mailbag: The wide open future

With Kirk Cousins gone there are all sorts of options for the Vikings and fans want to know what’s next

Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

What a week, huh! Hope you all have enjoyed the start of free agency. Lots hs happened which means lots of questions. Let’s dive right in…

Drew… No way Washington trades back from 2 to 11, right? Unless it’s a three-team trade. Washington gets out R1 in 2024, 2025, 2026 plus R3 in 2025. Then they trade the R1 in 2024 and 2026 to Arizona to move back up to 4. Maybe some players thrown in somewhere

I respect how hard you worked on this. It’s not the craziest suggestion I’ve ever heard considering the way Miami traded back with the 49ers in the Lance deal and then moved back up for Waddle. You can imagine a case where the Commanders like McCarthy and the Vikings like Maye and Washington figures they can get their guy at No. 4 and get value for moving back. The crutch to all of this is the Cardinals. If I’m in Arizona’s shoes then I’m having a bit of a tough time being convinced to move out of a spot where I’m getting a freaky wide receiver prospect. Maybe they would be happy with any of the top three receivers but it’s pretty darn important to get Kyler his WR1. Oftentimes we just see teams stick and pick.

Joel… Carolina locked down their trade up early last year. Do you think the Vikings will try to trade up soon before the draft?

They’re probably on the phone right now.

Jack… Sounds like a lot of QB's in the draft are going early. Why not just stay put and draft Penix at 11 rather than give up all that equity? I think he fits KOC's offense the best anyway.

Theoretically that makes sense but if KOC told me that he evaluated Maye and McCarthy as potential franchise QBs and Penix Jr. as a second-rounder type then I’d stamp my approval on a trade up in a heartbeat. It’s kind of like Will Levis. Theoretically it would have made total sense to draft him but since KOC didn’t want to put eggs in his basket then I was out on that idea.

The scary scenario is if they can’t trade up and they have to pick Nix or Penix Jr. just to make sure they got someone. Of course, they won’t tell us how they really felt in that scenario.

David…. Is a bust comp for Drake Maye is Brock Osweiler? Or is that a lazy comp for two tall QBs?

Maye is way more of a natural athlete than Osweiler. Maybe Blake Bortles. He was 6-foot-5, 230-pounds and had good athleticism but never figured out how to use it in the pros.

John….When do you think KOC and/or KAM get extensions?

Usually that happens prior to the final year of their deal, so presumably following 2024.

Martin…. Saw some steam about Vikings talking to the Cardinals. Would you do this this hypothetical trade? Vikings trade JJ to Cards for no 4 plus no 35. They take QB4 at 4 and then trade up again using no35 for best WR still standing in the 5-9 range?

I would not trade JJ for anything except Josh Allen. By law if you ask me about a Jefferson trade you should be required to watch five of JJ’s best games and then come back again with a straight face and suggest that they move him.

Pickle Enjoyer… Tell Kwesi to extend JJ before I lose my mind seeing all these non-ball knowers retweeting speculation from aggregators.

Yeah. It’s frustrating. Drama sells. Every single contract negotiation with a star non-QB player comes along with speculation that they’re going to be traded and JJ is the star of all star non-QBs. Everyone remain calm.

Thomas… A wild idea: any chance the Vikings trade Harrison Smith to the Cowboys to rejoin Zimmer and Kendricks?

Harrison’s going to finish his career a Viking.

Jon… What do you think is going through Mike Zimmer’s mind at the moment?

About Kirk leaving? Probably thinking he might still be the coach if they moved on from Kirk in 2020 and picked any of the five QBs who have all worked out.

Jerry…. The Vikings were mocked earlier at 11 taking a DE. They grabbed two OLB/DE's in free agency. Can we speculate they may be tipping their hand to trade up since it seems they've taken care of the Hunter void?

They probably tipped their hand on a trade up for a QB by not matching the $100 million guaranteed that the Falcons gave Kirk. It was weird how much of the outside world thought Kirk was coming back and kept mocking the Vikings other positions, by the way. Atlanta always made more sense.

Chuck… If you had to pick right now between Penix/McCarthy/Nix as the QB the Vikings take, which one are you taking and why? Holding all else equal for the moment-let's just say they're all there at 11.

I would guess McCarthy just based on the hype but it’s like mystery dinner theater trying to guess who the real prospects are. I’ve watched a ton of these guys and I come away liking Penix Jr. the most of the three. He just lets the ball absolutely rip naturally and doesn’t take sacks. Him throwing downfield to JJ would be something. He’s also been through adversity and took a program to places it rarely goes. Like that about him. But that’s just me. I’d trust KOC more than me.

Rob… Can you explain the McCarthy early 1st round selection hype? He was in a very friendly run heavy offense that didn’t ask a lot of him.

Yeah, I have my skepticism because of that too. If you turned on the TV for the final two games and watched him then you wouldn’t know he was a first-round prospect and I’m a bit concerned about that. But he has serious arm strength when he lets it rip and quick feet. He has the most growth potential and coaches love nothing more than guys they feel like they can mold. If they take him because KOC likes him, great. I still think Maye is a better fit for KOC but who knows.

Clark… If 2018 Sam Darnold was in this year's draft class where would you rank him and would you trade up (3 first round picks) to get him? Best guess on Matt Daniels coaching trajectory?

I’m not a draft analyst so I have no idea where he would rank. The Vikings signed Kirk in 2018 so I didn’t do any work on that draft class outside of thinking Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson would be awesome and I batted .500. He was a good enough prospect for the Jets to trade up for him but I don’t know what I’m supposed to do with that information now that he’s already been a bust twice over.

Daniels has the leadership capabilities and smarts to make a run at a head coaching job eventually but there are so few opportunities and they almost never go to special teams coaches. That’s silly because head coach is a leadership position oftentimes more than scheme but everyone wants the coach who had the hot defensive scheme from the year before or an offensive coach to pair with a QB. I wonder if Daniels would be good on the front office side. The man is sharp.

Derek… Other than QB, what are the vikes top roster needs after first round of free agency

Even though they signed Tillery I’m still looking at defensive line as needing help. Cornerback, left guard, WR3 are the biggest after that.

Jeff…. Do we have an updated cap space number, after the free agents we added? Curious to see if there is enough space to sign a defensive lineman. We need help there.

Not yet on the cap number but they have cap space to continue adding to the defensive line if they want to do that. We can be less afraid of things like void years or weighing cap hits heavier in 2025/2026 because the No. 8 shaped anchor on the cap is soon to be gone.

Bob… How high do you think Penix will go? Could the Vikings trade down to gain more draft capital and pick Penix up instead of giving away the farm to move up to Pick 4?

It’s very hard to tell. Mock Draft Database has him 38th on the consensus big board. That’s right around where Matt Corrall was in 2022 but the consensus has been way off before. Daniel Jones was projected at 30th and went 6th.

In general teams do not like picking a QB in the second round. There have only been six second-round QBs since Derek Carr and Jimmy G in 2015. So I guess he could be taken anywhere from the first to the third.

If the Vikings loved him then yes they could move back and likely still pick him up. I’d prefer they just go get their guy though.

Devin…. Which of these two hypothetical scenarios would be more insufferable for the fanbase? - Cousins bring the Falcons to the NFC Championship game or the QB the Vikings draft looks irredeemably bad from the get go? (for the record, I am very optimistic about the team and whatever QB they end up acquiring)

Nobody should care what Kirk does in Atlanta. The reason they went bat-bleep crazy with his contract is because they’ve been building that team over a number of years to be in the position to win right now. That’s not where the Vikings stand with their roster. If Kirk wins the Super Bowl, congrats to him, he wasn’t winning it here with this team.

peter …. Can Darnold be QB1? He is only 26 with 4 years NFL experience. Can KOC and the new QB coach make him better than a career backup?

Can he? Yes. Is it likely? Not even remotely close.

Here’s how unlikely it is: Since 2010 there have been 11 quarterbacks who made more than 30 starts and had a quarterback rating under 80. Those players are Colt McCoy, Trevor Siemian, Mike Glennon, Sam Darnold, Brock Osweiler, Matt Cassel, Chad Henne, Christian Ponder, Mark Sanchez, Zach Wilson and Blaine Gabbert.

Geno Smith had a 72.4 rating through 30 starts and then turned it around when he was 32 years old but there are very few other QBs who can say the same.

The most likely outcome for Darnold is that he starts 2024 and then gives way to a rookie and hangs around as a quality backup. If he started the entire season you could definitely see him building on what he did at the end of 2022 and in San Francisco but it would be a huge stretch to think he could be QB1 with that track record.

Kyle… Who will get the green dot on defense?

Cashman. I’m not sure it fits Pace Jr.’s personality.

Mark… If they are using top pick for qb, why haven’t they signed a dl or cb?

So they signed Jerry Tillery, a former first rounder who had a decent 500-snap season last year in Vegas. He’s not a game changer but a little depth at DL. It’s only the first week of free agency and they came away with three blue chip free agents on defense, a veteran QB and a star RB. That’s a lot more than they have done in the opening week of free agency than in the recent past. They are going to add more guys in the second and third wave and maybe there are some trade opportunities out there once they figure out whether they are trading up or not. We also have to keep in mind that they are not going to be able to build a complete team this offseason alone. There are still going to be some areas that we aren’t thrilled by.

Never Played Madden… I’m guessing many of these contracts are borrowing next years money to get things done. Are you concerned that they are going too much into ‘win now’ mode in an unlikely Super Bowl year?

Before we know the details of these multi-year deals they have a projected $129 million in open cap space in 2025, third most in the NFL per OverTheCap.com. None of the guys they signed are crazy expensive and Greenard’s deal is for four years, allowing them to shape it however they want. Not concerned at all that these are win-now moves because all three defensive players will be on the team in 2025 and still in their primes.

Stephanie…. Wishful thinking that we might get anything out of the tampering investigation?

If there is a penalty, I can’t imagine it will be significant. The NFL can’t start pretending it cares about this or there’s going to be a lot of teams in trouble.

RJ… I think we are all concerned that for some reason the Vikings will make the wrong QB move in the draft. I think most of us do not have the information that the Vikings brain trust has at their disposal. So, while we may have our favorites, at the end of the day we just have to wait and hope that whatever decision ends up being a great pick.

It’s totally rational to be concerned that the Vikings will draft the wrong QB because nobody is good at predicting which QBs will work out no matter how much information they have in house. You’re right that all you can really do is pray. This class has a lot to like though. In past years a lotta folks were trying to shine up QBs that did not belong in the conversation i.e. Desmond Ridder. In this year’s class the QB5 took his team to the national championship and QB6 completed almost 80% of passes. That’s pretty good.

Ben… I feel we were robbed of one of greatest Coller rants of all time if Cousins re-signed with the Vikings at that price lol. Anyway who do you think will be the Vikings starting QB by week 1 of the 2024 season??

Hopefully in the long run the lack of an epic rant is a small price to pay to get your QB of the future. I’d guess Sam Darnold is starting Week 1 but Rookie QB X will be starting by Week 10.

Jason… I would like to a corner and left guard in the second wave of free agency. Any under-the-radar guys you see at those positions?

I’m with you on those being major needs. It’s hard to pick out corners because of the fit with Flores but he would know Ahkello Witherspoon from their time together in Pittsburgh. Adoree Jackson, Steven Nelson and Levi Wallace are some other proven vets. Since Kendall Fuller landed elsewhere there aren’t really difference makers. Maybe keep an eye on New England’s Myles Bryant, an undersized aggressive dude that Flores might like.

The guard market is not sexy. Connor Williams is a good player if he’s willing to play guard. Kevin Zeitler can still play. Halapoulivaati Vaitai is a proven starter. Greg Van Roten has been around. So has Jon Feliciano and Evan Brown (Seattle). Difference makers are hard to find though.

Gary… Do you think Jefferson will sign this year or wait for 2025 and take advantage of the extra cap space?

He will sign this summer. What seems to be missed so often in the conversation about Jefferson’s contract is that these deals are always created to have manageable cap hits early on a restructure possibilities later. Here’s AJ Brown’s contract (the highest fully guaranteed money in the NFL among WRs):

Notice the cap hits do not get huge until four years after he signed the contract and if you look at 2025 and 2026 there is money that can be converted to cut the cap hits nearly in half. Jefferson will get more than this but it’s an example of how a massive extension can still be manageable. The problem with Kirk’s deals were that they were always fully guaranteed and short, leaving very little wiggle room for adjustments.

Dan… Are the Lions heading toward an enormous contract with Goff after this year?

Yes. They’ll probably sign him to a massive long-term deal that has some flexibility to move money around just like Mahomes’ deal. Here’s the thing about the Lions: 1) They have lots of players on rookie contracts who are already good so they can survive Goff’s expensive deal 2) They are in their window to win and will probably be there for 3-5 years so they are going to do everything in their cap power to keep their talent and when their window closes they will be screwed for a little while. That won’t be soon though. It’s not really a silver lining for the Vikings that the Lions have a QB capable of getting teams to the top five in offense and deep in the playoffs and have a roster stacked with talent.

Tim… I would like to see Justin Fields sign here. I’m sure this isn’t a popular opinion, the interest around the league seems to confirm that. I think if he would be willing to be coached up a change of scenery could be a benefit. Where do you think he will be next year Matthew?

Personally I’m excited about that day where we don’t have to imagine a quarterback being good and we don’t have to blame coaches and guards and receivers and the sun being in the QB’s eyes and instead the guy is just good and it’s obvious to everyone. Hard pass on Fields from me. I think he’s going to be Jalen Hurts’ backup next year.

Cody…. What is the move of they can’t get one of the top 4 QB’s? Stick at 11 and take Nix or Penix? Move back? Go with Darnold and pick the QB at the top of the draft next year?

The last option is an absolute no from me. Darnold went 8-9 as a Carolina Panther, he could definitely do that again with this team. I don’t see them as being bad enough to be drafting in the top five in 2025 and they would look totally lost if they let Cousins go and failed to get a potential starter in the draft. They have to do it now while there is a good QB class. Yes, I would roll with Nix or Penix Jr. or pick DT at 11 and trade back into the first round and get whichever guy is still there.

Jeff.. Although I love Penix's arm - having recovered from multiple ACL's myself - I am very worried about his durability and ability to scramble when needed. So if I was Kwesi, I would only consider Penix if all the other top six QB's are off the board.

I have a lot of trouble answering the medical questions because it’s far from my area of expertise. What I do know is that a lot of players have injuries and recover from them and keep playing successfully. Drew Brees’ career was supposed to be over with that shoulder injury in San Diego. Aaron Rodgers has torn all sorts of stuff over the years and he licked tree frogs right back to full health. ACL tears are a pretty routine thing now so I could see him being alright, especially since he is a pocket QB.

Bradley P… “When the owner, coach, GM and quarterback are on the same page that’s when you really have a chance to go win the Super Bowl.” What do you think of Cousins comments in his Falcons press conference?

I think that if he was as good at playing quarterback as he is layering passive aggressive stuff into press conferences then he’d be in Canton.