Friday mailbag: The Vikings have a GM

And Vikings fans have questions about what comes next

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! Well, the Minnesota Vikings have their general manager, which opens up a whole new batch of things discuss, including the coaching and QB decisions and much more. So let’s get into it…

(Apologies if I missed any questions via email/DM/Twitter, it was a bit of a hectic day)

@mattverick What position groups do you foresee being most affected by KAM's influence on roster assembly? Or is it too early until get HC?

Certainly the coach will impact how they approach building the roster but there are some areas that absolutely have to be addressed. I’ll be interested in how they choose to invest in the secondary vs. defensive line. In San Francisco they drafted D-linemen and glued together the secondary, whereas Cleveland drafted corners high and build around Myles Garrett with free agent signings like Sheldon Richardson and Jadeveon Clowney. The offensive line is really an area we’ll be focusing on but every coach wants that. It’s hard to say what Adofo-Mensah thinks about roster building and positional value yet but his former teams sure knew how to pick fat guys.

@BaseballNorm In a 100 yard foot race how large of head start would you need on Tyrek Hill? Am I crazy but until you find THE guy at QB not a guy, shouldn’t you keep taking swings at drafting one? QB’s move the needle more than any position in sports

I think I’d need to start 40-50 yards ahead of him. He probably runs 100 yards in about 10 seconds. I’d probably need 20 seconds. How about that for some math. Hire me, Kwesi!

You aren’t crazy. If you have an elite quarterback, you get 8-10 shots at winning the Super Bowl over that guy’s career. People will talk about how Rodgers and Brees only won one each but how many times did they enter the playoffs with a very serious chance to win it all? More than a half dozen each. How many chances have the Vikings had during their tenure playing musical QBs over the last 20 years? Three? And one of them was with freaking Brett Favre, the other was with Daunte.

Realistically, you have to draft them in the first round. Since 2000, 16 first-round QBs have gone to multiple Pro Bowls. Nine have come from all other rounds (make it 10 if you throw in undrafted Tony Romo). And that includes Andy Dalton and Marc Bulger, somehow.

What did Wayne Gretzky and Michael Scott say? You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take? You miss 100% of the Lamar Jacksons you don’t draft.

@HeyItsMattyFez How would you predict Kwesi, a guy who will be consistently considering probabilities and returns vs. investment, will view and approach the Cousins situation?

It has long been the theory of the analytics folk that building around an expensive mid-pack quarterback is very, very difficult, so I would lean toward Adofo-Mensah trading him. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Matt Ryan was expensive when the 2016 Falcons went to the Super Bowl and Jimmy Garoppolo has a high cap hit this year but those seem like perfect storm situations. Jimmy G was 15th in cap hit in 2019 and his team barely made the playoffs this year. Matthew Stafford is a mildly expensive rental this year but still $11 million less on the cap than Cousins and they aren’t locked in. Stafford’s situation also falls under the perfect storm category in which he fell into an incredibly talented, all-in type team. If you’re building with a five-year plan, your expensive QB generally has to be in the top five or you have a bunch of Pro Bowlers. Even then, that strategy didn’t work for the 2018/2019 Vikings.

@andrewdbowers Who is the best OC available to pair with a Kirk-led offense and who is the best available for a non-Kirk offense?

If we’re talking about OC’s to hire as head coaches, Kevin O’Connell from the Rams would be a good fit because Cousins has had career years in that system (reminder: Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak were really good for Cousins). If it’s a non-Kirk offense, I’d have to go with Brian Daboll. The way he worked with Josh Allen’s skillset to create a scary air-it-out offense was darn impressive. That doesn’t mean just anyone will become Josh Allen, only that Daboll has the awareness to fit his system to his QB.

@Aoki5Chuck How does an OC/HC come to have their playbook? Do they just copy and paste from the one they learned from, and add in a few wrinkles/terms? Or is there something more to it I'm missing.

CTRL+C. CTRL+V. To be honest, I’m not sure how it works technologically. I’m sure Sean McVay doesn’t let Kevin O’Connell walk out with his Rams offense iPad and take it straight to Minnesota but these guys know all the base concepts and ideas inside and out. Then they can add different wrinkles and adjustments to them. So McVay probably had all this shotgun stuff with Stafford as part of his base offense, he just decided to adapt and use it more often than he would have with Goff. If the Vikings hired O’Connoll, he’d bring all of the base stuff with him and then make adaptations to the skillsets of players he has in Minnesota.

@alstrain I was watching YouTube videos from the Manning-era broncos and it got me curious. In a battle of receivers born and raised in small-town Minnesota, who do you take in their prime: Eric Decker or Adam Thielen?

I’ll say the ever so slight edge to Thielen because he had the best single season of the two with 113 catches for 1,373 yards in 2018. It’s crazy how close they are though. Decker caught 439 passes and Thielen has 464 and Thielen is about the same age as Decker when he retired.

@_RO28 Interested in your take: why is draft prospect talent evaluation still so fallible? Sure, people are like snowflakes and can hide some shortcomings. But in a technological world with metrics, film, communication, etc, why do so many 1st rounders, esp QBs, still flame out?

Put it this way: College football is like watching somebody take batting practice and deciding whether they can make it in the major leagues. You can see raw ability but the game is so much different that it’s very, very hard to predict. Scouts have been proven to be remarkably good at picking out the first-round talents and they generally get the order right. If you draft 15th, your player has much lower odds to be great than if you pick first. That shows you scouts can spot the most difference.

But can you project how somebody will master complicated offenses where the playbook is three times the size it was in college? Can you figure out if somebody is tough enough to face guys who are twice as violent as they are in college and twice as smart? Are you mature enough to study? Can you stay healthy? Can your mind work quick enough to make decisions at lightning speed? Can you take coaching? Can you keep out distractions?

There are so many pitfalls. That’s why nobody gets it right. Here’s how you get an edge in drafting: Understand that you’re getting it right 40% of the time no matter what, so make those 40% the most valuable positions. The Bengals would have had it right with Chase or Sewell. They picked the right position to get the most value out of getting it right.

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Do you think teams would ever use Madden as a tool for simulating in-game decision making? Or is that too Kwazy of an idea?

We’re getting to the point where some GMs probably are/were Madden players. So, maybe. Didn’t one of the Twins’ brass say that he took a trade idea from somebody on Twitter? Has anybody tried trading Cousins for Mayfield and a first and then sending Mayfield to Carolina for another first on Madden? You’re welcome, Kwesi.

@NicholasM_1993 Would it be possible that DeMeco Ryans could bring Mike McDaniel with him to be OC? Technically a lateral move but he would be able to have a greater influence than he does under Shanahan.

The 49ers could/would still say no. He wouldn’t be upgrading his job from assistant to coordinator, so it would still be considered a lateral move. That’s if he’s under contract. If his contract is up, he go wherever. He can become the prime minister of Malaysia if he wants.

@ATKing53632390 Is free agency like the draft where no team is consistent at it? I am thinking signings but maybe letting guys walk too?

So that’s the thing about drafting. Nobody is better at it in terms of hit rate over a long period of time but there’s something to getting the most value out of it. If the Vikings and Packers both drafted seven players and three of them became starters but the Packers’ three were a tight end, punter and long snapper and the Vikings’ were a quarterback, receiver and corner, those each counts as hits but the Vikings won by a landslide.

That’s how I look at free agency. Some teams are definitely more savvy with signing their own players and spending wisely but it’s probably too complicated to look at hits vs. misses. Say we’re evaluating the Browns. Is Nick Chubb a hit or miss? They gave him a new contract and he was good this year but so was his backup and it didn’t really matter to the final result. Maybe there’s some studies out there on it. I just think it’s one you have to eyeball.

@TJPierso Do the 2020 rule changes allow for us to interview externally for other front office positions without being blocked provided its a promotion? If so, do you see the Vikings going externally to fill any other front office roles? Who would you like to see as Kwesi's AGM?

I thought the rule changes was for assistant coaches who wanted to get bumped up to OC. I’m not sure about executives getting out of contracts to become an AGM. I’m sure they can to become a GM but an assistant is less clear. If somebody finds the answer, let me know. Who would I like to see? I just learned who Kwesi is a few weeks ago. It’s impossible to know who would make a good AGM without interviewing them myself and even then I’m not sure I would be good at figuring it out. I’d hire anyone who said they love fullbacks.

@RealBHogenson I'm starting to feel feelings again. How can I get past my fear that no matter who the Vikings choose, they will choose wrong because they're still the Vikings?

Here’s an analogy: When you’re a broadcaster, things break all the time. Microphones go out, you lose signal, the producer screws up. There’s all sorts of things that can go wrong. So you go into every broadcast knowing it could be a calamity and hope that it goes smoothly. When it goes great, it feels awesome. If things do go sideways, you have to keep going. I’d never stop broadcasting because things could — and will likely — go wrong. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah gives you about the best odds that a GM is going to give you at this moment. We’ll see where it goes and then if/when some stuff goes wrong, it’s onto the next thing. If it goes great, it will be awesome for you.

@jdolgoff7 During the season, I saw some writers comment that if Zimmer was fired he’d have a long line of teams interested. Is he a candidate anywhere? Taking a year off?

Who knows. He’s clearly not doing a media tour like Rick Spielman. Everybody handles these things differently. If Zimmer chose to spend a year with his family and grandkids, I wouldn’t be surprised. I think he would definitely have interest from some teams as a defensive coordinator but not a head coach with the way things ended. Doesn’t it seem like a Sean Payton-Mike Zimmer tandem is lining up for 2023 in Dallas?

@headcoach21 What’s your percentage chance that Rodgers is playing for the Packers next season??

I’m going to go 20% or less. There’s cap hell and then there’s Packers cap hell. They did everything for The Last Dance and it turned out to be the last dud. Why would Davante Adams come back when the team has no money to give him and the QB situation is unclear? That man needs a long-term contract in a place like Los Angeles where he can play with Justin Herbert for the next five years, not sitting around every year to see what Rodgers is going to do. Now with Hackett in Denver, it makes a lot of sense for Rodgers to go there. Or maybe Rodgers will retire and join Spotify.

@AlNotino What's the Vikings best case scenario if they hire another defense-oriented head coach?

I think the best case is Raheem Morris. Despite being a D-coordinator, he operated Kyle Shanahan’s passing game in Atlanta and he’s been through this before. It’s valuable to have a coach with experience to go along with a first-time GM. I’m all for young coaches getting chances to run the show but there’s nothing that can prepare you for the HC job. DeMeco Ryans belongs as a head coach someday, it just seems a little fast.

@KyeBaxter General question. What coaches around the league are known as creating the most collaborative environments?

John Harbaugh is the first one that comes to mind. He seems to be in lockstep with the front office and allows his OC and DC to do things the way they want to do them (maybe even to his detriment at times with Greg Roman). Cleveland is trying to be this way under Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski. It’s hard to say without covering the other teams because I can’t really get a feeling for the innerworkings of the organization. If I had to guess, I’d say most organizations have similar ideals of “processes” as Adofo-Mensah is talking about. Heck, for years Rick Spielman would tell us about the collaborative effort between the front office and coaching staff and for a long time it seemed like that was the case. Recently, not so much. It’s not the newest concept though. Basically, when the decisions work, everyone looks great and says it was collaborative and when they don’t, everybody will say the GM was a tyrant or an idiot.

@jasnyder123 Who would win a foot race between Jermaine Wiggins and Linval Joseph in their primes? Linval had some wheels...

Linval was one of the most insane athletes I’ve ever seen. He was a state champion weight lifter and would track down running backs in the screen game. Bench pressed 39 reps (96th percentile) and ran sub-5.1 at 328 pounds at the Combine. Crazy. That 2017 season has to be one of the best ever by a pure nose tackle.

@GuillermoTavira Any chance Doug pederson gets a call for an interview?

Possible. It sounds like they’re not particularly close to naming a head coach. I did say that hiring an experienced coach was a good idea but I wonder if Adofo-Mensah is going to want somebody who takes up the whole spotlight like Pederson or if he’d rather have someone that he can grow together with.

@Dinzeo82 With Hackett going to Denver do you think the option of Kirk going to Denver is dead or 2nd choice to Rodgers?

I’ve never really bought the Kirk-to-Denver thing. Didn’t George Paton just see his long-time colleague get fired after rolling with Kirk for four years? If I saw my neighbor buy a lawnmower that chopped off his toe, I don’t think I’d mow my yard with it.

@Flannelmandan Can you explain to me how it's not absolute malpractice to not even interview Brian Daboll? I don't care if it's known behind the scenes he's going somewhere else, publicly request the interview even if he says no. Teams should be clamoring for him what am I missing?

I wish I had an answer for you. Maybe you’re right and he’s always been a lock to go to the Giants where they just hired a Buffalo exec but otherwise it would be bizarre to leave him off the list entirely.

@NorthStarsNHL If they go with a defensive minded coach, who are the best and most realistic choices for an OC? What kind of involvement can we expect in the offense from someone like a Ryans vs. a Zimmer type?

That’s not entirely clear. Usually teams pluck the quarterback coaches from successful teams to make them OCs. Rich Scangarello is the 49ers’ QB coach and was the Broncos OC for a year. Maybe that’s who he’d bring along with him. Every defensive head coach will say he’s leaving it up to the OC until it doesn’t work for awhile and then suddenly he will want to have a say. How about Brian Flores with two offensive coordinators in Miami? At the start defensive-minded head coaches always plan to be hands off but that only lasts if it’s smooth sailing. That’s part of the argument for an offensive-minded coach.

@dtrainiax Do they retain Keenum McCardell or do they lose him if Leftwich gets a head job?

Hard to say. Sometimes new regimes keep position coaches or coordinators around. Zimmer stayed in Dallas through a regime change and Kellen Moore remained OC of the Cowboys from Garrett to McCarthy, so it’s possible Justin Jefferson and McCardell have a good enough relationship that the next coach would want him to stay. Most times it seems like coaches have their guys that they want to bring in though. Personally, I wouldn’t mess with that receiver room too much.

@_Born2Early_ By signing the Vikes new GM, I saw on @CourtneyRCronin article that the Browns get 2 3rd rounder compensatory picks. Does that mean the Vikes lose those 3rd rounders?

The compensatory picks come from the NFL.

@MattAnderson_8 What expectations should Vikings fans have for Kwesi in his first year?

Most of the time in a position like this, you would say: “Give it time, let Adofo-Mensah work his way into the job.” But this is not a slow-play type spot. The first year expectation is to figure out the quarterback situation, resolve a messy salary cap and immediately start steering the ship out of the mediocrity riptide and back in the direction of the Lombardi Trophy. Give Brad Holmes of the Lions credit for what he did last year. Showed up on the job and 15 days later was raking in draft picks from the Rams for Matt Stafford to kickstart their rebuild. We all already be judging Adofo-Mensah before he has time to play the great Minnesota golf courses this summer.

@orangesuds Do you have any sense on whether you will have more press availability with KAM as compared to Rick Spielman? Also, just how tall is Kwesi?

Kwesi is 6-foot-4. I agree with his self description of being “lanky.” There’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll have more availability because anything is more than zero. Spielman had his landmarks at the Combine, bye week and first day of camp and that was it. Rick has done more interviews since getting fired than in the last two years as the entire thing burned to the ground. The one that really blew my mind was after Diggs got traded. Brandon Beane was out there in Buffalo jumping for joy in front of the media, while Vikings fans waited for weeks to hear what went down — and then got no answers anyway. That’s the thing: It’s about the public getting to hear what’s going on. When we complain about Vikings people being accessible, fans often think it’s because we want the content. But as you folks know, I’ll be writing either way. I just like to have more answers for you. I have a lot of confidence Adofo-Mensah will be around to provide much more insight into what’s going on.

@gunnerviking When are the Vikings announcing Raheem Morris as HC?

Makes sense to me. I’m good with that. Here’s something wild that I ran across when looking up Raheem Morris: Josh Johnson was Josh Freeman’s backup in 2010 when the Bucs went 10-6 under Morris. The Vikings are one of the only teams Josh Johnson has not yet played for. Now this is an exciting development. Alex Van Pelt was his QB coach back in the day, too. Connections! I once watched Alex Van Pelt come back from down 20 points against Elway and the ‘97 Broncos, only to lose in overtime.

Can you guys tell it’s been a long day?

@AlNotino What's the Vikings best case scenario if they hire another defense-oriented head coach?

That they find a quarterback that the defensive-oriented head coach will support? I’m not convinced Brandon Staley is the wizard everyone made him out to be this year but that situation with Staley-Herbert seems pretty ideal.

@jeffrey_condon Likelihood KAM brings in Harbaugh for HC? Would cost a ton

I can’t see it. It would be hilarious and as crazy as the guy might be, he does nothing but win. It would be expensive though and then your franchise becomes entirely about Harbaugh. I heard a story once that Peyton Manning wanted to go to San Francisco but Harbaugh didn’t want to run Manning’s offense. Old friend Gary Kubiak got a Super Bowl ring because he was cool with it. If Harbaugh is here, it’s his show, he’s the star and nobody else.

@vikings_cg For OC, do you think McDaniel would want to come with Ryans or O’Connell with Morris so that they could actually call plays? I understand they could get blocked. What about Kubiak staying?

I really don’t think the play calling thing is a compelling argument for getting out of a contract. It would be shocking if Kubiak stayed. I suppose it is possible if DeMeco Ryans ends up as the coach. Gary was Ryans’ coach in Houston. I’m sure we all have wondered what Klint would be like if he wasn’t dealing with an overlord head coach.

@smccullough5 There's been lots of talk about replacing the OC but I haven't heard much about the DC. Zimmer was always considered the de facto DC but Andre Patterson is a solid coach to. Do you see a new HC bringing in all new coordinators?

Yes. I’d be stunned if the new head coach kept either Patterson or Kubiak. It rarely happens. The only times you see it is when a team has one really good side of the ball when a new HC is coming in. They want their hires and they want to teach things their way, not try to get on the same page with people they didn’t hire.

@CoreyHermanson Do you think there are already back-channel deals for head coaches and coordinators or is it truly a race to get deals done first. Are the Vikings falling behind as teams move forward with hires? (ex: Vikes loving Hackett but then Denver hires him before a 2nd interview)

They might already know they want somebody who’s playing in the AFC or NFC Championship game and they can’t say it. That’s possible. I don’t think they are falling behind in the race. There are plenty of good candidates remaining in the pool even with Hackett and Eberflus hired. It’s not like drafting 12th overall where the guys with the best odds to be great are gone. There’s probably equal odds that Hackett and all the other hires work out.

Jonathan via email: Who is the favorite to be the next Vikings HC? Who is the favorite to be the Vikings starting QB in 2022? (Cousins,Rookie QB,Bridge QB)

I find the Vegas oddsmakers to be strange on this one. They have Eric Bieniemy No. 1 and then Brian Daboll, Brian Flores, Andre Patterson, Doug Pederson and Kellen Moore. Bieniemy remains plausible but it doesn’t seem like any of those candidates are in the lead for the job. Feels like DeMeco Ryans has the best shot. But I’m not sure they even know where they want to go yet.

@Vikesfan691 think there’s a chance Poles was on the Vikes, but they didn’t offer him complete control over the roster like the Bears likely did? I think it could’ve been the difference

My understanding is that Poles went to Chicago to see if he could get a better offer than he got from the Vikings and then he did. Both of them likely have roster control but I’m not sure if that was part of the conversation.

@eleysium I get that lots of the front office folks are staying this year, but do you expect KAM to install his people more next year? In other words, is this year almost a prelude and the real changes will hit next offseason?

What often happens in these situations is that they keep everyone in place through the draft and then make changes. It would not be surprising at all to see that in this situation. Adofo-Mensah can talk all day long about wanting lots of different opinions but if holdovers don’t want to come along with his vision for how this thing can operate, they can take a hike.

@vikesfan1930 Who wins the games this weekend?

I’ll go with the favorites, Los Angeles and Kansas City. And then I’ll have officially been very wrong about the Stafford Rams. Or Stafford will throw a bunch of interceptions and everyone will say, SEE! He reminds me of Carson Palmer. Played pretty well for a bad organization but didn’t win much and then went somewhere else to a great team and rewrote his story a bit.

@dreski83 What is more appealing... 1) Cousins+player+pick to Cleveland for #13 pick and financial freedom OR 2) Cousins to Cleveland for #13 pick and still pay portion of QB contract OR 3) wait for HC hire, let GM work, roll with Cousins in 2022, start rebuild next season

Trading Cousins and some other pick than No. 12 (and depends on the player) now for the 13th pick and financial freedom. If the Vikings can set themselves up to have a heap of cap space going into 2023, which is when the NFL’s new TV deal will start impacting the cap, well, friends, we could be talking about some kind of free agency bonanza. That’s how quickly these things can flip. Draft Matt Corral, pick an edge rusher, dump cap space, develop younger players by actually playing them, go into 2023 free agency with a phone made of money and pick up free agents at the airport in cars filled with more money.