Friday Mailbag: The start of many, many QB questions

Vikings fans are perplexed at how they got to 4-7 without clarity at QB

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By Matthew Coller

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Well, we know what most of the questions are going to be about so let’s dive in…

Jake J… If the Wilfs made you GM and said you could do anything you wanted (including tanking), what would be your 5 year plan for the team?

It’s not really possible to tank now. On Madden, maybe you could put in the punter at quarterback and lose every game but you can’t realistically just bench all the good players and lose on purpose. Any type of tank move would have needed to happen at the trade deadline.

Tanking next year wouldn’t make much sense either because there’s way too much talent on this team. Yes, they blew it this year, but next year they will still have: Jefferson, Addison, Darrisaw, Jackson, Fries, Mason, Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, Redmond, Murphy Jr. etc.

I’ll keep saying it: This is a really good roster. So you have to start from a place where you are trying to compete for the NFC North in 2026. That begins with getting a QB who can give you a chance. I’m not sure who that is. Let’s just say that San Fran would give up Mac Jones for a third-round pick. Maybe Geno Smith?

If Mendoza or Manning was available at the No. 12 pick, I’d take them. Laugh at that all you want but nobody can ever tell me that it’s a bad idea to pick a QB when your franchise doesn’t have a clear option. Remember the Vikings passing up on Lamar and Hurts to pick corners?

Anyway, then the plan would need to be all in trying to win in 2026 with plans to rip it all apart after that and draft another quarterback in 2027.

In the process of tearing it down, no more “competitive rebuild” stuff. Take it all the way down to the screws in 2027. Chicago/Detroit style. Look to draft in the top 5 in 2028 and then spend big in free agency that year around the next rookie contract QB. Collect as much draft capital as you possibly can, get the salary cap right and plan to really hit your stride in 2029/2030.

Of course, plans have to be malleable. Say, like if you stumble upon a 4,300-yard, 35-TD quarterback who wins you 14 games, then maybe consider changing the plan.

The point is, there’s no easy path to Super Bowl contention if JJ McCarthy doesn’t become The Guy by next year. They put all their eggs in his basket and so far that looks like a catastrophic decision that isn’t easy to undo. Is it fair to JJ to declare that it’s over and start planning for the next QB after six games of McCarthy? Not really but the NFL isn’t fair and it doesn’t wait around for everybody to have the perfectly ideal amount of time to develop.

Jason… Is Hockenson worse since the knee? He seems to have regressed in my mind. Do the stats show that?

Statistically speaking, his 2024 wasn’t bad considering he was coming off that injury. He ended up with a PFF grade that was only four points lower (78.8 to 74.8) than his breakout 2023 season. He averaged 11.3 yards per catch, second highest of his career, and he had a really impressive contested-catch rate (11 CCs on 17 chances). I do think Sam Darnold overlooked chances to get him the ball by looking deep down field at times but when Darnold targeted him, he still completed 71.9% of passes.

This year has been a disaster. He’s averaging just 7.9 yards per catch and has a 57.8 grade. The problem is: I don’t think TJ is doing anything differently.

If anything, Hock’s struggles are a canary in the coal mine that really show how badly the quarterback has been processing the offense. Kirk and Sam (and Nick Mullens) had no problems utilizing the TE because Hock is built into the equation as the easy button when opponents double Jefferson.

But even if I think it’s entirely based on the QB, Hock carries a $21 million cap hit next year and they could make $9 million in cap space by cutting him. It’s really tough to justify the cost when they have Josh Oliver on an extension.

Douglas… I’m not really a “fire someone” kind of fan but do you think there will be a fall guy after a season like this?

I don’t believe there will be. The Wilfs were completely on board with going with JJ, as Mark Wilf told us at the owner’s meetings when he announced that the team would not be pursuing Aaron Rodgers.

Everyone is responsible for 2025. That doesn’t mean that you throw everyone to the curb. The plan that was pitched to the Wilfs when Kwesi and KOC were hired was to give them a 2-3 year window on the rookie QB contract from 2025-2027. It’s clear that ownership signed off on that plan, so it wouldn’t make any sense to bail on it now.

I will say: Nobody in the NFL gets to go five years without a playoff win without consequences. The fact that it’s been four years without one is unacceptable considering the investment that the owners made.

Brad L…We keep hearing patience for the quarterback, and I agree. However, at what point do you think we should be able to make a judgment?

Yeah, that’s really hard to know. But here’s the struggle for me: Over the last 10 years there have been 93 quarterbacks to make their first six career NFL starts and McCarthy ranks 90th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (which factors sacks and INTs). The only guys worse are DeShone Kizer, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Nathan Peterman.

Josh Allen and Jared Goff are also both low on the list but they played for atrocious teams. I can’t find anybody who played at this level for a team that wasn’t tanking the previous year who actually worked out.

My other issue is with the framing of McCarthy as having “only six starts.” Yes, that’s true but he’s also been an NFL player for 581 days and he looks like he was drafted yesterday. I understand the injuries are not his fault but they aren’t Anthony Richardson or Trey Lance’s fault either. Their teams just couldn’t wait 600 more days for the guy to figure out how to throw a 10-yard dig route on time.

Arin J… Hi Matt, it’s time to sit down McCarthy, not giving up. He needs to develop tools in his tool belt, pocket presence, #2 pass,. If that takes more than 2026 so be it. Play Brosmer the rest of this year and reevaluate in off season. O Connell failed McCarthy. If he was this far from ready, he should not have been playing. I admit I wanted McCarthy over Darnold and still believe he will get there. He needs to practice and develop but do it sitting as long as it takes.i though it would be a bounce back last week, I was wrong. Prediction, Brosmer looks better but they come up short. SKOL Vikings!

O’Connell along with the GM and owners failed the rest of the roster by deciding that a quarterback who threw 700 passes as a college player and zero as a rookie was ready to take over a team full of guys ready to win now. But I can see how that happened.

McCarthy took massive leaps forward in 2024 training camp and looked like he might be ready to start if Darnold struggled by midseason 2024. They assumed that he would do the same thing again and be good to go at the start of this year. And he looked like that was the case. If you ask Patriots reporters who were there for joint practices, they’ll tell you that McCarthy looked like he was a Day 1 starter. Unfortunately without meaningful preseason games and two-a-day practices, teams have to make these decisions based on very little information.

I don’t think O’Connell failed McCarthy by playing him. He did everything under the sun to try to set him up for success, as did the front office by extending stars, adding big-money free agents and drafting Donovan Jackson.

What NFL history tells us is that even the best football minds do not bat 1.000 when it comes to quarterbacks. It’s an impossible quagmire to figure out.

Jim L… If Darrisaw and Jackson are unable to play Sunday, how will that impact KOC’s game planning?

Whether they are healthy or not, the plan is probably going to be the same. They are going to try to get the ball out of Max Brosmer’s hands quickly. I think they should be pretty happy with the way they ran the ball, so I imagine that they’ll start with that and then try to use play-action off that and try to find an advantageous spot to take a shot downfield.

The good thing (I guess?) is that they’ve been trying for weeks to mitigate the impact of the quarterback on the game, so it’s not going to be something new.

Also with Seattle’s D-line, whether Darrisaw/Jackson play or not, they’ll have to get the ball out of Brosmer’s hands quickly. They are deep and nasty.

Chris W…Considering cap space next year, name 3 players that restructure their contract and stay and 3 players we can’t afford to keep.

Per OverTheCap, Jonathan Greenard, Justin Jefferson and Andrew Van Ginkel’s deals would create the most cap space with restructures. They could also do that with Will Fries, Byron Murphy Jr., Christian Darrisaw, Jonathan Allen, Blake Cashman and TJ Hockenson. Brian O’Neill could be extended to lower his cap hit.

It’s pretty clear they set up these deals to have the option to squeeze out space if needed.

They can afford to keep everyone but Hockenson, Hargrave and Kelly would be the guys they could cut and create the most space.

Matthew B… Hypothetical here: If Stefanski doesn’t last this season in Cleveland, is there any chance he would want to come back and be involved with the Vikings? Maybe as an offensive advisor or some other made up role. I think his experience would be invaluable for run play design and as another person for KOC to soundboard with.

I’m sure that he has a relationship with O’Connell, so it’s possible. Thing is, the Vikings average 4.7 yards per attempt this year, which is 9th best in the league. They have vastly improved on the ground. It’s not totally crazy that the Browns could stick with Stefanski. They have let him remain as the HC for this long, are they going to fire him now?

Dermo Man…At what point would you suggest give more snaps to McGlothern, Vaughn, Murphy, et al.

That’s something that they should do. Will they? I’m not so sure. Brian Flores doesn’t strike me as the type to start taking veterans off the field in order to give rookies a try.

Scott M…Can we just stop using the term QB Whisperer?
McVay is a QB whisperer because he dumped his first round QB, Goff, and picked up Stafford because he was a better fit for the system (and has turned in a HOF QB).
Shanahan had to get the best all around RB and surround his backup choice for QB with incredible weapons, an insane defense and an offensive scheme that can minimize his QB flaws.
Now if Max turns into Purple Purdy is it because of QB Whispering or that the sum of the parts is greater than the whole?

Yep. I like to point out that Bruce Arians, whose book is called “Quarterback Whisperer” fails to mention his work with Tim Couch and only highlights Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Big Ben and Carson Palmer. Those guys were pretty talented, right? (And I loved the book!)

There is a such thing as being a coach who can absolutely enhance the QB’s abilities. Stafford is playing his best ball ever. Mac Jones and Jimmy G played their best with SF. But nobody is a miracle worker. If the guy can’t see the field, he can’t see the field. McCarthy has looked a lot like Justin Fields to me.

If Max turns into Purple Purdy, it will be because his ability to process is top notch and because he’s accurate. That’s the thing that nobody ever knows until a QB is actually out there: Can they play at NFL speed?

If only teams could let fans stand close to the action once in their lives, you’d understand why so many QBs struggle.

Chuck A… Happy Thanksgiving! Not over indexing on one game, but what do we make of the fact KOC called the highest run play percentage on Sunday? He let Nick Mullens and Dobbs throw 40+ passes, but has only decreased JJ’s passes. Hard to see it as anything but him losing faith/confidence

Happy Thanksgiving to you, sir!

KOC did his best to hold back in the postgame but when he talked about it being a “tough needle to thread” when you have the “variance” of a young quarterback, we could convert that to Mike Zimmer speak and basically say that he lost all trust in McCarthy’s ability to run his offense, so he switched to something directly from 1991.

He tried the option of leaning on JJ, he tried a more balanced attack, he tried a Tim Tebow offense approach… same results.

I think he had the right approach to give them the best chance to win. If/when JJ comes back, he should go back to just having him run the whole offense and see how the results turn out. If it’s 17-for-40 every week, so be it.

Garrett K…Very thankful for your content, keep up the great work. As we’re reflecting on what to be thankful for, I’m thankful that the Vikings took a swing on a QB, and that they didn’t just stick with Kirk. The plan was the right one, it just failed, at least that’s how it looks. At what point do you see us taking another swing by drafting a QB? Do we have a plan B for next year, have a QB competition and just see how it goes? Happy thanksgiving to your family!

Appreciate the kind words, Garrett!

In total agreement with you. It’s way better to fail by taking a shot at actually winning than locking yourself into being perpetually mid.

There is a Josh Rosen/Kyler Murray type world where the QB prospect that’s available is good enough to be undeniable.

More likely is that they would wait until 2027 to take another shot at it. I’m not an advocate for coach firings when they are good but if 2026 goes sideways, we know the realities of the NFL. That means this regime can’t really afford to draft a QB and develop them unless they earn themselves back some credibility with a playoff win in 2026.

Ben… Do the Vikings have an ownership problem?? Some fans think the Wilfs hiring practices ( not having hardcore football people in the building) is contributing to this team’s problems the last few seasons.

Nah, I’ll argue all day long that the Vikings have a top five ownership group in the league. Best facilities, deep pockets, patience and commitment, great treatment of players and families.

The Wilfs are reasonable people who listen to their football leadership. Have these fans seen some of the other teams whose owners make the football decisions and do crazy stuff?

I’m not sure what fans are talking about when it comes to “hardcore football people.” What position did Howie Roseman play?

Scott M…Happy Thanksgivings, Matthew. One of my favorite parts of Thanksgiving, beyond the abundance of food and excuse to watch football while drifting into a food coma, is to reflect and give thanks for what has happened in the past year, especially the small things.
So, in that spirit, in the Vikings-verse, what are you thankful for?

Pie chart of best Thanksgiving pies (savory and sweet)

Happy Thanksgiving to you, Scott!

What I’m most thankful for is the Purple Insider supporters who allow me to continue to do a dream job every day. Can’t thank you all enough for that.

I’m always thankful for the team treating my unique outlet with the same respect as the folks from the newspapers and ESPN/The Athletic. I’m not sure how many other franchises would do that.

Also, on a personal note, thankful to have another greyhound in my life this year. Mr. Buddy consistently interrupts my podcast but he’s been an incredible addition to the home.

Bradley P… Did the organization fail the quarterback before the quarterback failed the organization?

Let’s remember, KOC said that organizations fail QBs MORE than QBs fail organizations. He did not say that it never happens.

I’m not sure why that quote is being thrown in his face as Sam Darnold crushes it again and Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield are playing well. He’s right. But it’s not a 100% thing. Sometimes guys just can’t play in this league.

I don’t think that’s decided yet with JJ but it will be interesting to see what their version of “not failing” JJ is from here.

IceColdNorth… I’m interested to see how Brosmer plays. What things have impressed you when watching Brosmer in practices?

The first thing that caught my eye was his decision making. Even in OTAs and minicamp, it was very clear that he was seeing things quickly and getting rid of the ball on time. Then when you see the maturity with which he’s handled this entire thing, from making the most of his training camp and preseason reps to handling questions from us and then impressing coaches enough to remain QB2 after Wentz got hurt… it’s all good stuff from him.

Does that mean he’s going to beat the Seahawks? That’s a tough task. But I would not be surprised if he can execute the offense efficiently.

Pickle Enjoyer…. Honestly, it’s getting to the point - knowing what we know now - that KOC and Kwesi should have until the end of next year to show they can build something worthwhile. Like you said on the pod with Jeremiah, McCarthy double clutches on pitch and catches (!!!). How can you sell that as a franchise QB? That’s insanely bad!

A fair take. The only thing I can say is that he did look like he’d be much more confident than this during training camp. I expected him to be much better than this.

If you’re wondering, here’s the list of QBs who have thrown for 4,300 yards, 35 touchdowns in a 12+ win season:

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Kurt Warner, Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff and….

Sam Darnold.

Robert S… Hi Matthew, given JJM’s rawness and relative inexperience, have you changed your mind about him benefitting from playing more in preseason games versus the injury risk?

You think 15 more drop-backs in preseason would have changed the results?

Also, I believe that I said and wrote that I’d play him the first half of all three games in preseason.

But if you’re looking for answers for why this has gone so badly, that ain’t it.

Skolbaehr…. Do you think, if the vikings (especially McCarthy when he comed back) plays as poorly as the last games and the vikings have a high draft pick, that the vikings try to get the No.1 QB in the 2026 Draft?
Greetings from Germany

Thanks for following from Germany!

If there was no such thing as job security and the Vikings had won some playoff games, maybe it would make sense. In this particular case, they need a guy who can win them games right now.

Matt D… Do you get the sense at all that the staff has a lot infighting, or too many chefs in the decision kitchen? I don’t, but Russini’s comments hint at that, and Luke Braun argued pretty aggressively the other day that the team is chaotic right now because there are too many people jockeying for different players, schemes, play calling, etc. These feel like standard “team sucks, point the fingers” takes to me, but any sense this is a real issue within the team right now?

The simplest answer is the right one: They believed in their first-round draft pick and their roster-building timeline and it did not work out.

Any time that happens, there’s going to be a ton of WHAT WENT WRONG???? WHO IS RESPONSIBLE???? type of takes. It makes for better fodder than “welp!” I’m sure San Francisco fans aggressively went looking for signs of dysfunction when Trey Lance went south too but that’s why 2024 was important. We know this all works if the QB can execute it.

I don’t see much here in terms of mystery though. If JJ was up to the task, they’d be in the playoff race and they’d look smart. Nobody ever knows for sure what it’s going to look like until it happens.

Also, Russini saying that some people in the organization wanted Darnold back… I mean, obviously. That’s how teams operate. They have meetings, people like the personnel director, OC, QB coach etc. share opinions and then ultimately the HC, GM and owners make the decisions. I doubt there are many decisions in the NFL that are 100% consensus throughout an entire franchise.

Eldon… Does Brosmer start Sunday? And if he does how do we evaluate a good performance from him?

Yes, he’s going to start.

A good performance from Brosmer should be pretty easily judged on how many plays the team ends up with. If they stay on the field and have 60 plays, it means that they at least moved the ball like a competent, professional offense. If the final score ends up being 24-14 but they did a good job of getting the ball to Jefferson and Addison, then it’s a victory for the offense. This is a really, really good Seattle defense.

Ryan B… The other day during his weekly appearance on KFAN, Kevin Seifert brought up unprompted how baffled he and those around the team are at JJ’s play this year given where he was at and what he looked like in August 2024. It feels like everyone in Vikingsland (from fans and reporters all the way up to ownership) completely miscalculated what the effect of his knee injury and the time lost would be.

However, it stands to reason that having a historically bad start to his career from an injury standpoint (only drafted QB in the common-draft era to miss an entire rookie season) could lead to a historically bad start on the field. All that being said, was there anything you observed in the run up to this season that you look back on and think, “Oh yeah, that’s where we could’ve seen this coming?”

I agree with what Seifert said that it’s pretty shocking how bad all of this has looked considering the trajectory that it looked like McCarthy was on after 2024 camp.

I can’t say that I totally underestimated the impact of the injury since I brought it up repeatedly and got shouted down by rabid McCarthy fans but nonetheless he still appeared to be relatively in control of the offense during training camp.

It wasn’t the best camp I’ve ever seen but there were a lot of good moments and it appeared that he could keep the train on the tracks. In fact, it appeared that way four weeks ago in Detroit.

But… could we have seen this coming? Sure. It’s a completely unproven quarterback. There was always a pie chart there with a 10% outcome that was “unplayable.” Just because something doesn’t have a high chance of happening doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

Also, he would absolutely never admit it but I wonder if JJ’s confidence got damaged significantly after the Ravens game. Not that it’s an excuse, that’s just where it seemed to really go sideways after he played solidly vs. Detroit.

Anglo Vike… So we have McCarthy in concussion protocol and had several others as well this year. So my question is what exactly is done by the player/assessment team when a player is in concussion protocol? I know its not something simple like “how many fingers am I holding up JJ?” but I’m curious to know how a player is assessed and then finally cleared to play - scans, eye tests or what exactly? How’s that for a non standard question - and also Happy Thanksgiving to all, enjoy your day !

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