Friday Mailbag: The search for answers

Vikings fans want to understand what went so wrong and what's next at QB

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. It’s been a long, long week, huh. Let’s dive into your questions…

Bradley P…How absurd is it for KOC to be talking about simplifying the offense with only a handful of games left? Can he not work with younger players? Did he actually think JJ was Sam?

It’s funny that some people’s interpretation of this “simplify” thing is that the coach screwed up by making the offense too hard and others’ interpretation is that it’s proof that McCarthy can’t handle this level of football right now.

Here’s my thing about JJ and “complexity.” People have called him a rookie all year. That’s incorrect. He has 2024 rookie camp, 2024 OTAs, 2024 minicamp, 2024 training camp, one preseason game, 6 months behind the scenes watching Sam Darnold run the offense with great effectiveness, 2025 workouts, 2025 OTAs, 2025 minicamp, 2025 training camp, one preseason game and 13 weeks on an NFL team.

That’s more than enough time to understand how the offense works.

The problem is that running an offense in practice or looking at All-22 tape in a meeting is so much different from playing NFL quarterback with Micah Parsons on the other side and Jeff Hafley game planning for you.

The truth — always and forever — of the NFL is that you never know how someone will react to that until they are in the games. If anybody knew, Tom Brady wouldn’t have been picked in the sixth round. Drew Brees wouldn’t have been a second rounder. Kurt Warner wouldn’t have been playing indoor football.

Suggestion: Read Bruce Feldman’s book “The Making of a Modern Quarterback.” It’ll change how you view the position forever.

Anyway, I lean toward thinking that JJ wasn’t ready to play in the NFL under any circumstances with any offense. Should the guy whose entire thing is quarterback development and evaluation have been expected to know that? Yessir. But even the best gamblers only win 55% of the time and even the best QB minds draft Trey Lance sometimes.

Greg… How does one have a job after posting the worst [draft] retention rate? I feel it was a matter of time before this came to haunt us. They have no depth due to this and in today’s NFL...that’s a depth sentence on years the injury bug shows up which will be most years. One bad draft won’t kill you. 4 in a row will though.

You’re reaching with the “retention” stat. Bad teams have high retention rates because they are trying to rebuild through the draft. The second worst retention rate team is 10-2 right now.

Why is nobody talking about the New England Patriots horrible drafting before this year? They dumped 2nd rounder Keion White. They dumped 1st rounder Cole Strange. They dumped 2nd rounder Tyquan Thornton. They dumped 2nd round Ja’lynn Polk.

That’s actually way worse than the Vikings, who have an above average (usually) No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison, a budding young pass rusher in Dallas Turner and a potential long-term starting guard who has already been above average as a pass protector in Donovan Jackson.

We’ve been over this time and time again. Your “retention” rate isn’t going to be particularly high when you have so few high draft picks and your team is ready to win right now. Instead of developing Akayleb Evans, for example, you’re dumping him and getting Stephon Gilmore because you need Stephon Gilmore right now.

The same idea goes for trading draft picks all the time for proven players, like having to go out and get TJ Hockenson because you’re in the last year of a winning window in 2022 or Cam Robinson because your team is really good and you need a left tackle.

I’m not sure what team has great depth. Can you show me the backup centers and left tackles who are crushing it?

I don’t dispute that they needed better production in the draft to have an argument for the NFL’s best roster in 2025 and to have a better out look for the future but… which part of this roster isn’t good? When the O-line’s been healthy, they were excellent vs. Detroit, Baltimore and Chicago. The defense got healthy and has been dominant over the last month. The receivers are Pro Bowlers. The running backs have improved the team’s yards per carry. The kicker is insanely good.

You can argue that the secondary needed some of those picks like Mekhi Blackmon or Evans or Andrew Booth Jr. to hit. That’s totally true. But isn’t this roster in terms of players 2 through 53 good enough to win? I think it is. The QB play has been nowhere close. That’s why New England looks smart and Minnesota looks stupid.

noodlesintheface… At what point do we dig out the Randy Ratio from two decades ago and just tell McCarthy to throw the ball to Jefferson 40% of the time no matter what? He won’t learn to read coverages or checkdown faster in these last five games, so screw it, throw it to JJettas 15 times a game. (PS: Mike Tice was right.)

Like three weeks ago o’clock is when they should have done that.

I understand that it’s not always as easy as it looks but I was poking around some numbers from great receivers with bad QBs and here’s what I found:

— Davante Adams had 103 catches on 175 targets when Aidan O’Connell was the QB in 2023.

— Derek Anderson, John Skelton and someone named Max Hall found Larry Fitzgerald 90 times for 1,137 yards in 2010.

— On the 2-14 Houston Texans, Andre Johnson caught 109 passes

— Brandon Marshall went for 1,214 yards with Matt Moore and Chad Henne in 2011.

It’s not impossible to throw the ball to a guy this good at receiver. Just keep throwing it and throwing it and throwing it to him. If you have to do pop passes, do it. This is ridiculous.

Thomas… Wouldn’t it be classic Vikings to pull out a win against the Commanders and have the fanbase feeling somewhat-positive only to go out and lay a complete egg the following week in Dallas? Scheduled to be a primetime game (as of now) no less!

Just has major “comeback against the Bears week 1 and then obliterated by ATL week 2” vibes all over the next couple of weeks.

Yeah, it definitely feels like there is a big game coming at some point for this team. Even the worst teams in the NFL, like the New York Jets last week, will get a favorable matchup and put together a really good game out of nowhere.

It can’t be overstated how bad Washington’s defense is. They are 31st in points allowed, 30th in turnovers forced, 32nd in net yards per attempt allowed.

If the offense can’t get anything going in this game, they literally cannot do it against anyone.

It wouldn’t be a shock at all if McCarthy went for 250 and three TDs.

Even if it comes against a horrible team, he desperately needs something to build confidence.

Bradley P… Can Kwesi survive? From completely misidentifying the qb market (thinking they had a chance at Drake Maye), to the AT trade, the mid drafting, etc.

Is the Drake Maye reference to the trade to get the additional first-round pick in 2024? They also had to make sure they got any QB and there was a real chance that four could have gone early.

My take on this is very simple: The front office, head coach and ownership agreed to create a “winning window” in 2025 and 2026. I believe that they deserve to have a chance to win with the team they built, regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

We can talk about drafts or a bad trade for Thielen or whatever but the truth is that they had a team this year that was good enough to compete and they had injuries and didn’t get the QB play that was anywhere close to what it needed to be. But there’s reason to believe that they have enough of a foundation to get it together quickly.

If this was a total house of dysfunction like when Zim left, I’d say blow it up. I don’t think that’s the case.

Patrick G… Our defense has been the most consistent phase on the team the last 3 years. Is there concern about the fact Flores is not under contract. It’s been said you stick with good coaches. Is there concern about losing Flores. Who is the better coach if you have to keep one? KOC. Or Flores

Yes, there should be. If I’m a team with a struggling defense, I’m writing a blank check for Flores. It actually looks like a pretty savvy move on his part to not sign an extension because now he can have options.

I think Flores could be a really good head coach if he gets another opportunity, especially under the right circumstances. Based on their track records, KOC has been the better HC. If I had to keep one, I would keep KOC.

Brad L… Yes, the quarterback play has been abysmal. However, it seems others have let them down. Wasn’t the idea that all this talent would lift the QB play? That being said who have been your biggest disappointments?

There’s only so much everyone else can do. The biggest disappointment in terms of production is probably Byron Murphy Jr. He was such a turnover machine last year but he’s currently 72nd of 76 starting CBs by PFF this year. That’s nowhere near the expectation. It shows you how much that position goes up and down from year to year.

The offensive line had a couple of weeks together with four out of the five starters and they were excellent. It’s a big disappointment that we never got to see all five of them together for a long period of time.

I might also throw Jordan Addison into the mix. He had really good chemistry with JJ McCarthy in camp and set a pretty high standard for himself in terms of hands and there has been more drops that I would have expected.

Jake Jochum… What would be your thoughts on the Vikings trying to trade for Mac Jones? What do you think they would have to give up to get him?

I’ve always been a Mac Jones defender, so it’s been a good year for that take. My concern about the Vikings getting him as that San Francisco’s short-passing offense has really enhanced his production. He is 31st in terms of average depth of target. He was getting a ton of yards off Christian McCaffrey checkdowns and YAC. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a viable starter but I’m not sure he’s a good fit for a team that requires arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows. I guess if Mac was going to play sorta like Kirk did in 2022 where there were a lot of checkdowns but where does that really get you? Can you compete with Goff, Love and Williams? I’m not sure. Of course, it would give them a better chance to win by a mile than what they’ve had this year.

What would I give up? A third I guess.

Ben… I like KOC but I feel like he’s the wrong coach for McCarthy. Can this relationship work or do you think they aren’t even close to compatible??

I don’t know how to answer this question. The idea was that KOC was going to coach him up and now we’re saying KOC is coaching him too much.

Isn’t the more obvious explanation for all of this the right one? JJ wasn’t ready to take this on.

Pickle Enjoyer… So, I heard on another pod that JJ has about 800ish dropbacks post-high school. I think Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels had 2000 before they were drafted.

It’s very true (and frustrating) as a fan to hear JJ gassed up by nearly everyone close to the team (including some reporters), but if he can show that he can 1) not put the ball in harm’s way with bad decisions 2) throw it before he sees it WITHOUT violently climbing the pocket and hitching and 3) dang it, check down, I’m ok with it taking a little longer. He’ll have a whole off-season to “let the cement dry” on his fundamentals, so hey, it could happen? Right?....RIGHT?!?!?!

Ah yeah, it’s definitely reporters’ fault that the franchise picked him over a 35-TD, 4,300-yard, 14-win quarterback and we figured that he could probably play. Whoops! I guess I should have been a better scout when it came to McCarthy than KOC.

He had a solid camp, by the way. Both in 2024 and 2025. I can only tell you what happened in front of me, I can’t predict the future. I’ll do better next time at being a fortune teller. If I’m time traveling, I’ll go back, buy stock in Microsoft and tell the Vikings to franchise tag Sam Darnold. Oh wait, I already did that because I was concerned he might not be ready after only throwing 717 college passes and missing a whole year. (I got killed for that take).

Anyway, my guess is that he’s going to have some impressive moments over the final five games, in part because he’s playing the league’s worst three defenses in the next three weeks. Maybe they can create some confidence, build on it during the offseason and work on those fundamentals when they can really put in the time and then he can win a camp competition next year and be good. There are lots of QBs who needed time.

My concern is that the Vikings do not have time. They can’t wait three years for him to figure it all out. They need it to happen next year.

James B…With the benefit of hindsight, are we sure that KOC is that good with quarterbacks? Darnold was already trending up and is arguably better with the Seahawks with Klint Kubiak as his OC (a guy that Vikings fans thought was pretty bad at his job when he was here). Dobbs had those few good games but seemed to get worse the more KOC worked with him.

Kirk had already proven he could do the job and it’s not like KOC coached him up to be elite. It’s not like Stafford needed a lot of coaching in LA. Maybe a dumb analogy, but I’m starting to feel like KOC is better at being the songwriter that writes songs for the great musicians than he is being the guy teaching the musicians how to play their instruments

Football fans and analysts always want absolutes. You are the GOAT or a bust. You are Coach of the Year or fired. KOC is either the QB Whisperer or a fool.

That’s not how anything works. They drafted a young quarterback who has a lot of talent and seems like he understands the X’s and O’s in practice and on the chalkboard. But he had an injury that set him farther back than they expected and he isn’t anywhere close to adapting to the speed of the NFL. There is nothing you can do to coach someone to play against Micah Parsons.

I truly don’t think people understand how freaking fast it’s happening out there. In college, it’s slow motion compared to this. There’s a reason why Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson are the other QBs that looked like this: They didn’t play much college football either or sit very long in the NFL. What McCarthy really needed was a Jordan Love plan.

Also, there’s no such thing as a QB Whisperer. It’s a myth. History is very clear about this. All of the greatest QB minds of all time have been burned at one time or another by a QB that they believed in. Nobody is made of magic.

That said, Sam Darnold probably was much better when he arrived here than anyone ever gave him credit for.

Andrew K… 2 questions: Do you still think that the huge rate of injuries this year is just random? Feels like there’s something off with their strength & conditioning staff (have memories of new staff coming in and dramatically reducing injuries in the past). Second, if we could just fix the offensive line play, I’d like to argue that we’d have dramatically better results.

To me, that points to new O line coaches. Better line play would help establish some run game, and better protect whatever qb we end up with (keeping them healthier and less likely to totally mentally melt down which is my take on JJ). Does this make sense (of course, with needed draft picks and other roster moves), or am I just looking through purple-colored glasses and avoiding the need for a total rebuild?

Well, I think that they have had some challenges this year that are very unique. Concussions are incredibly difficult to manage. Christian Darrisaw’s situation with his recovery is unlike anything I can remember with the stops and starts. The JJ ankle situation was complicated by a trip over seas. I always hate commenting on injuries because I have zero expertise in that field.

It would be nice to argue that they would have had dramatically better results if the O-line was better but their best two performances of the year were against Baltimore and Chicago and they lost both games and struggled to throw the ball effectively in both.

I can’t tell you if Chris Kuper is a good O-line coach. The only people that know that are the guys in the O-line room. I would say that I’d like to find an O-line coach who can deal with 13 different combinations of linemen, including a center who had never played there before, and still come out 13th in pass blocking and 16th in run blocking by PFF.

It’s very clear that the QBs have made it harder on the O-line. I think KOC’s system with deep developing routes also makes it more challenging.

I do believe people are looking for any possible explanation that isn’t JJ McCarthy because that feels way better than it being JJ McCarthy.

Bill B… It has struck me that this year there are more OL injuries league wide than normal years. Is that true ? Secondly, If so what can the league do to limit these injuries. Thirdly, why doesn’t the NFL require OL to wear the Guardian caps?

I’m not sure if that’s true. There used to be a website that tracked injury data but the guy shut it down a few years ago.

There’s not much you can do to limit injuries. People fall on each other in piles up front, that’s football.

If there is legitimate proof that the guardian caps work, that’s a pretty good idea. O-line and D-line are the ones who have the most times hitting heads against each other.

Mark T… The thing that bothers me the most are the writers that tear down JJ, yet do not put much fault to the O-Line. If Sam Darnold, Aaron Rogers, or Drake Maye had to play in those games with that O-Line, I am pretty sure they would not have done much better than JJ. sure the timing for throwing the ball soon can improve but, fix the O-Line and watch JJ improve greatly.

Nobody is “tearing down” JJ. We are being honest about his play, which ranks dead last in the NFL.

The Vikings had a lower PFF graded pass blocking line last year and Sam Darnold had a top-10 season.

JJ McCarthy holds the ball longer than any other non-running QB in the NFL. In the Ravens and Bears games, they had PFF graded games over 80 in pass blocking, which is elite.

Drake Maye would be fine behind this line because good QBs make their line better.

tbird… Can you give a way-too-early-and-premature prediction of what happens with the Vikings between now and the end of the 2026 season? Will KOC and/or Kwesi remain this offseason? Which quarterback will end up the starter? Will the season be boom or bust? And ultimately, will we just be getting new front office next year and restarting with another multi-year plan? At this point last year we would have never guessed the season was going to go the way it did, so hopefully next year is another 180 in the right direction.