Friday Mailbag: The QB future is under the spotlight

Vikings fans are interested in how the team will view its upcoming offseason

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By Matthew Coller

Happy New Year, everyone! Hope you had a great holiday season. Well, just one more ballgame and then it’s full offseason mode. Let’s dive in…

Billy Judo…

Not a question, just an opinion. I have been on board with the overall team building strategy and the decisions at the times they were made (hindsight on the QB situation is 20/20).
All that to say, if Flores leaves for another DC job I think that is a fireable offense and Kwesi would have to be gone immediately…I need someone to direct my outrage at if he leaves for a lateral move.

I’m not sure that I follow why Flores leaving would mean firing the GM. In terms of players that Flores wanted, the front office has gone out and gotten all of them. Rodgers, Hargrave, Allen, Van Ginkel, Greenard, Murphy Jr…. they found Redmond as a UDFA, they drafted Dallas Turner. This man couldn’t have asked for anything more in terms of his side of the ball.

I suppose if you’re making the connection between the QB situation and Flores’ choice, then you could get there. But when Flores says “the football part is a fit” and mentions the “business” element, I’m assuming he means that the Wilfs have to match his price. The “business” part could also refer to an addition to the job title or it could be the idea of putting himself in the limelight in Dallas. You know if he turns around the Cowboys defense that ESPN is going to be talking about him and him being blackballed by owners from HC jobs non stop.

Minnesota is still a great situation for him. Almost everyone is under contract on his side of the ball. Even in a bad year they still win 8/9 games, so it’s always going to be a competitive situation.

It’s also possible that an owner breaks rank and decides to make him a HC because the other candidates this year are pretty unimpressive.

I’ve got it at 50-50. Maybe it should be a little higher toward him staying.

noodlesintheface…

Hi, long time listener, first time caller. Justin Jefferson is at 947 yards. He’s been incredibly patient and supportive of the team and hasn’t been a me-first diva like the archetypical #1 WR. To reward him, he should absolutely get to 1000 yards in this next game. My question is, should we open the game with consecutive flea-flickers until he gets 1k, or just target him on slants and out routes instead? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen.

Whatever it takes, man. If they have to put him in on punt coverage and run fake punt passes to him to get to 53 yards, then do it.

Realistically, you need McCarthy to just pull the trigger on some of those in-breaking routes that he’s always open on. Tell the QB, just freaking throw it no matter what you see. And then the “pop pass” is always a favorite for getting free completions. It really should be scored as a run play but since it’s technically a forward pass, use that as much as needed.

I don’t think it’s going to be all that hard in this game since the Packers are playing all of their backups. There shouldn’t be much pressure and the players who would have a chance at covering him won’t be out there.

I’m going to predict 129 yards for Jefferson and 275 for JJ.

Rad… Money over control of the defense, with BFlo getting interest and insiders (Mike Florio and Adam Schefter) reporting interest from the Cowboys. Jerry likes controlling the roster and trading key players, in my rube brain it doesn’t seem like a good move. Could you construct a pie chart for what you think Flores does?

I do think that has to be a considerable concern for Flores that he would have to work out with Jerry beforehand. It seems like the way that it has worked with the Vikings is that Flores gives them the players he wants and they go and get them. Maybe it would be more like that, so long as Jerry doesn’t get into an absurd contract battle with any stars.

I’m going 50% Flores stays in MN, 15% Dallas, 35% head coaching gig.

Ben… How do you think the Vikings will handle the QB position this offseason?? Will they go big game hunting or put all their eggs in the McCarthy basket?? Anything in the r middle of that just doesn’t move the needle for me.

I agree with you that those are the best outcomes. The thing about putting the eggs entirely in the McCarthy basket is that if he gets injured again, you just waste another season. That can’t happen with this roster.

I was on the train of just letting it ride with JJ until he got hurt against the Giants. They need to have real competition for him in camp and somebody who could make the playoffs if he won the job and got hurt. The guys that fit that bill the most are Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones. Do with that information what you will.

If they went after Lamar or Burrow, those are no-brainers. You risk it blowing up for the chance at a championship.

Where it gets dicey is Kyler Murray. If they went with Murray, it would be over for JJ and fans would hate it. Yet I think it’s very defensible. He has pedigree, a resume with some very high highs and a 2024 performance that would have won this Vikings team 12+ games. Not to mention he threw the ball like crazy to DeAndre Hopkins and he’d be a lot of fun.

People hate Kyler, I get that. He’s not a likable guy. I also remember people hating Jeff George before he got to Minnesota and laughing at the idea of Sam Darnold. Not saying you have to love the Kyler idea, just look into what he did last year a little bit more (and maybe realize that they were tanking this year and their franchise is so irrelevant that nobody even talked about it).

The only reason I bring up this route is that it’s possible. Other QBs who have performed like this generally do not get three years unless they were the No. 1, 2 or 3 pick.

Brad L…If we beat the Packers we’re 9-8. So, what does that really mean?

It might mean giving up the fourth place schedule. But since I got attacked by raging fans for mentioning that last week, I won’t go any further into it.

Here’s the reason to beat the Packers: If Harrison Smith retires, he gets to walk out of US Bank Stadium with a win over Green Bay. Apropos.

Maybe it gives JJ a little confidence heading into the offseason.

Roger N… Watching Philip Rivers makes me wonder long a long snapper can physically play in the league. If he wants to keep playing can DePaola play until he’s 40? 45? 50?

I would say that 50 is pretty unlikely but there have been a few who pushed 40 years old. I wouldn’t be shocked if he keeps spinning it for a while. Age does come for everybody though.

Garrett K… I think the biggest thing I miss this year is watching the quintessential Justin Jefferson take over the world kind of game. I miss watching him and after he catches another saying to myself, wow they really cannot stop him. Do you think probably he gets to 1k yards? My thought is it should be easy, just feed him the ball. But that’s kinda the whole point of the offense and it hasn’t worked yet

I think it’s a lock that he gets to 1,000 yards. The Packers are game planning for their playoff opponent, not the Vikings. They’ll very likely put nothing on tape in this game, which means basic coverages and easy reads. McCarthy still has to throw the ball accurately and that’s a question with his injury but with clean pockets and no deception in the secondary, it should be “pitch and catch.”

I never would have dreamed that we would be having this conversation about Jefferson not being able to get the ball. But historically speaking, it does happen when there is bad QB play sometimes. The great Larry Fitzgerald was held to 748 yards in 2012 because Kevin Kolb, John Skelton and Ryan Lindley were throwing him the ball.

I figured this offense was impervious to that. Apparently not.

It should be an enormous part of their thought process for next year. Do they believe that JJ McCarthy can figure it out with Jefferson? Can they diagnose what happened and fix it? If not… they gotta find someone who can/

Matt D… I’m trying to compile a list in my head of QBs who would be an improvement on Carson Wentz but still fit into the “yeah, I could actually see that happening” bucket. Anybody missing from this list? Who do you think is most likely to end up on the team?

Daniel Jones
Kirk Cousins
Kyler Murray
Mac Jones
Malik Willis

I guess Rodgers has to be tossed in there. That’s about all I can come up with.

I could see Kirk coming back if nobody wants to make him their starter. If he loses the competition, oh well, he was a backup in Atlanta anyway. Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray and Malik Willis wouldn’t sign if they have to compete with JJ. The Mac Jones thing makes so much sense but do the 49ers want to help the Vikings by trading him here? I’m guessing not unless they hare highly encouraged to do so.

Randy S…I appreciate all your hard work covering the Vikings! My question ... you are the GM of the Vikings and have been miraculously granted the #1 pick in the 2026 draft. You have the current roster of players. Who would you select with the first overall pick?

Thanks Randy!

This question seems set up for me to say Fernando Mendoza so… I will say Fernando Mendoza. As we have seen this year, there is nothing more important than the QB position and if McCarthy were to become awesome then he could always be traded or he could be The Guy, just a year later.

It’s a trick question because I’d always draft QBs until I had one.

If there was a restriction that I couldn’t go with QB, I’d probably go Caleb Downs. Certainly the positional value is restricted a bit but that guy has freakish talent. I could see an argument for Arvell Reese, David Bailey or even Carnell Tate. When you pick that high, take the best guy and don’t worry about position.

This draft is odd because there doesn’t seem to be a clear cut first tier of players like there has been in years past. *Subject to change

Brent M… Hey Matthew, Like so many of us, I was was looking forward to a successful season. I expected JJ to be able to run the offense, rely on the D/ST’s and win games without having to do anything special. Now that we see how far away we are from that reality, my question is two fold: 1) What moves would it take for the team to position itself (whether successful or not) to be a real contender next year? 2) What would it take for the Wilfs to buy into a full rebuild?

It would take top-12 quarterback play, keeping Brian Flores and getting lucky with health. I really don’t think much more is required than that. If they had top-20 QB play this year, they are in the playoffs and if they didn’t have so many injuries early on that still might have happened despite ranking 29th in passing EPA.

As far as a full rebuild, they would need to be 2-6 at the trade deadline next year or worse. We have seen that even being mildly in the running is enough for this team to avoid selling off spare parts. If they went 6-11 next year, you’re probably looking at a total overhaul.

This is another reason that I think they’ll make a legitimate play for a QB. They know that they have enough on the roster and they know that the clock is ticking.

Derrick K… I think Malik to the Vikings is more likely than you do, considering this administration can’t afford another subpar season of QB play. Talk me into the Vikings and Malik Willis agreeing to terms.

The only reason that I don’t think it’s likely is because Malik will have options and if I was his agent I wouldn’t be advising him to go to a team where he had to compete. There’s so many jobs that are going to be his from Day 1.

However, if I’m wrong about that and there aren’t teams willing to lock him into a three year, $75 million deal to be their starter, it seems like a great idea. If he loses the job, it’s cool. If he wins the job, then you have a QB1 with some high quality play under his belt.

Pickle Enjoyer… Thinking about McCarthy and where he needs to improve, and this is what I’ve come up with:

1) Mechanics
2) seeing it faster
3) touch (which is downstream from the first two)
4) staying healthy
5) better control/operation of the offense

I would move “staying healthy” up to No. 1. The man needs to play football games.

It’s legitimately insane to think about how few footballs he’s thrown since high school. This year he’s going to end with about 250 attempts. Let’s just call it an even 950 passes since IMG Academy.

Do you know how many throws Bo Nix has since the start of college? 3,000! Three. Freaking. Thousand. Yep. 1,900 in college and 1,100 in the NFL. THREE THOUSAND.

Let’s pick another random QB from his college career and first two seasons in the NFL. Josh Allen. He was around 1,500 by the end of Year 2.

Justin Herbert. He threw about 1,300 passes in his first two NFL seasons and 1,300 in college. So 2,600.

CJ Stroud. About 1,000 in his first two NFL seasons and 800 in college. So, around double of McCarthy by the time he entered Year 3.

How is anybody supposed to get better at No. 1, 2, 3, 5 if they aren’t playing? And when they are playing, they are throwing at extremely low volumes?

That’s why it’s hard to believe he can just be The Guy next year.

Jason… What’s happened to Ivan Pace and what is his contract situation?

My theory is that when Ivan Pace was playing behind some hefty DTs in Harrison Phillips and Jonathan Bullard, he could run free in the run game and blitz into the gaps that they were creating for him. I also would guess that eventually opposing teams started taking notice of him out there and game planning to take advantage of his size and lack of wing span in coverage.

He’s an RFA after this year. They still got a lot out of him but it’s another young player who wasn’t able to keep up in Brian Flores’ defense.

Gary A… I think Donovan Jackson had a good rookie season at guard. He started most of the games and missed a couple due to injury. And Will Fries started all of the games. Do you think our OL is shaping up, except for the center, of course?

I do think that, yes. Jackson had a good season with the potential to grow quickly into being an above average player.

In terms of the rest of the line, Fries was OK but I felt like he got exposed a bit as the season went along and the fact he didn’t have a full camp may have worn him down toward the end.

If they get Darrisaw back to full health, Jackson, draft or sign a center, Fries and O’Neill, that’s an above average offensive line with the potential to be really, really good. It says a lot that they dealt with so many injuries and still finished with PFF’s 15th ranked offensive line grade. (It also says how tough it is these days to play up there).

RZuppelli… Seems like going to Dallas for a larger spotlight for Flores, but have to build the defense from the ground up would be a pretty big gamble. His defense here took a couple years to truly get cooking. If the early struggles are on a bigger stage, would that not hurt his brand?

There’s a lot of potential pitfalls in Dallas. The power dynamic is unlike any other team in the league. The expectations, no matter how delusional, are always insanely high. The criticism if you lose is through the roof.

But football folks don’t always think that way, right? The upside to winning there is that you’ll be a legend on the biggest stage. That might be worth it.

Robert S…. Matt, what is your best guess as to how many wins the Vikings will have to have in 2026 for Kwesi and KOC to keep their jobs? Playoffs?