Friday mailbag: The playcalling debate
Vikings fans still have the struggles at the end of the Cincinnati game on their minds as the Vikings get set to face the Lions
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By Matthew Coller
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Alright, we’ve got a big game coming up, so let’s dive into it…
Bradley P… How foolish are the calls for KOC head? He has areas to improve but wasn’t everyone aware the 13 wins was an aberration?
On a scale of 1-10, the ridiculous level is a 10. How many people are actually asking for that versus performative social media posting is hard to say. The head coaching job runs so much deeper than some misguided play calls. If we think of it through a business lens, it’s like an upper management position. The HC is responsible for hundreds of people within an organization. He works directly with the owner, GM, coaching staff, players, trainers, team employees, media etc. And he’s the one who decides on the bigger picture scheme and how they want to approach each game schematically. That’s a lot. There’s a reason that so many coaches who are good with X’s and O’s fail as HCs. I think KOC has done a very job of juggling all of those things as the leader of the franchise and his offensive scheme has shown to be explosive when the parts are clicking together.
Is it perfect? I don’t believe so. But if you watch every single play of the Chiefs or Dolphins or 49ers they are going to have bad moments too. Did anyone see Mike McDaniel’s mid-season Hard Knocks rant where he was ripping himself in front of the team for bad play calls? The bigger picture is so much more important than one misstep at the end of a game. Nobody is wrong for having gripes with some of the “too cute” stuff or maybe lacking adjustment to Josh Dobbs but bigger picture they are in a good place.
Thomas… Matthew: What are your thoughts on Bradbury’s play this season?
I’m actually going to have something longer on this at some point so keep your eyes peeled. By his PFF numbers, he’s been a very solid average center. When you factor in the fact he’s had four different quarterbacks, it makes his season more impressive. He has come a long way over the last two years and proven that he can be an above average player at the position. I’d say that’s an underrated move the front office made last offseason that has worked out nicely.
Ben… Are this years playoffs gonna be the most exciting?? Feels like a lot of teams going in the dance have a lot of warts that can be exploited.
Every year the playoffs bring us totally unexpected results and unforgettable moments but it might be so top heavy this year that it’s going to be all about the later rounds rather than early-round madness. Think of the women’s NCAA tournament vs. the Men’s. The women’s tournament is all about the super teams that play in the final four where the men’s is about insane early-tourney results. Give me the heavy hitters throwing punches at each other in the championship games. It’s also different in the AFC vs. NFC. In the NFC there are two teams that are clearly better than everyone else and it would be surprising if neither ended up winning the conference. On the AFC side, would anyone be surprised if Buffalo or Cincinnati came out of nowhere to beat somebody at the top? It’ll definitely be interesting.
Kyle… Jake Browning said he didn’t want to trash talk the Vikings until after the game. In your estimation, what percentage of NFL players share that view, what percentage will trash talk anytime and what percentage have no desire to trash talk?
It’s a wide spectrum when it comes to that. Some players talk trash non stop as part of their game (corners specifically seem to use it to get in receivers’ heads), some will only say something if there is a particular reason and others won’t say anything no matter what. Most players are so focused on their jobs that they can’t have much to say to the opponent aside from here and there between plays. What Jake did was pretty rare. Usually after players win they won’t do much gloating, probably because they know that they can get smacked in the face the next week but since this was personal between him and the Vikings it was different. It reminded me of Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals last year. That just had some extra juice to it. Good for Jake. It’s a great story of a guy that worked really hard for his chance and is making the most of it.
Ben… It seems like people are calling KOC a bad HC because of recent results ( I vehemently disagree) but is the process game by game good??
I’m going to keep saying that backup QBs make heroes and fools of head coaches, oftentimes from week to week. I would question the process of the plan against Vegas because it felt like the passing side did not seem to be adapted much for Josh Dobbs but aside from that if we go through and ask how many times they have appeared to have a good gameplan (and sometimes it got blown up by fumbles) we would say far more often than not during the KOC era. They are still an above average passing team by Expected Points Added despite playing half the season without Kirk and JJ. To me that says something about their ability to manufacture open receivers more often than not.
I want to make sure it’s clear that I’m not calling fans’ criticisms silly or off base when I’m talking about these things, only trying to put them through the right lens. We have to factor the context of trying to gameplan with a backup QB and the fact that they have had a lot of bad bounces this year — literally and figuratively.
Jeff G… Think you hit the nail on the head on a recent podcast Matthew. You guessed that if Cousins had not gotten hurt they would most likely be 8-6 now. If that was indeed the case - although I’m a fan of Kirk, it just doesn’t make sense financially to bring him back at $40+ million a year (matching Jones) for one extra victory or two! Thoughts?
Yeah, it’s a very logical approach to respect Kirk Cousins as a quarterback and believe that under the right circumstances he can win a lot of football games (50-37-1 as Vikings QB is a darn good record in that sample) and also feel like betting on him returning to 100% after the Achilles injury, aging well into his late-30s and making $40M per year is extremely risky. I saw a stat that something like 33% of the Vikings snaps from 2023 are going to be free agents next year. They either have to pay or replace Danielle Hunter and building the D-line to be much more dangerous as a pass rush is going to take money. This defense has been wonderful but it needs more in terms of investment to make it Super Bowl caliber.
The question they have to ask is: If someone else was playing QB, how good would they need to be to match what Kirk can do with JJ, Addison, Hockenson, Darrisaw-O’Neill, KOC? I don’t think Dobbs or Mullens make for a good test case because they probably rank 45th and 53rd out of 64 QBs who start the year as starters or backups. Is it worth $30 million in cap space to fill that gap from what a draft pick would bring or even $10-$15 over a Baker Mayfield-type bridge QB? That’s the economics decision they have to make.
Christopher… So let’s say Coach Flores does take a head coaching job next season ...what do you think our defense look like going forward. I know it will depend on new coach & personnel. Does Miami give us a picture of what might change.
What he’s done this year has been some pretty spectacular artistry, so it won’t be easy to simply recreate but they could stay in house with defensive backs coach Daronte Jones and aim to stay with the same shape-shifting philosophy. I have wondered if Flores’ defense will be studied so much that teams figure it out, though the allure of his scheme is that it can be something different week to week, which is the Patriot/Belichick way that’s been hard to solve for offenses over the years. I’d be more in support of staying in house and keeping everything the same for all the young foundational players to build upon than changing DCs completely.
I’m not sure if Miami does give us an accurate test case. Maybe it does show that it’s hard to replicate what Flores was doing exactly because 2022 was a big drop off from 2021 but there are so many factors that go into it.
Matt L… KAM shockingly resigns at end of this season and the Wilfs want Matthew Coller for their first interview. First question : Cousins, Hunter, Flores- what would be your plan with each?
Do I get his wardrobe? It’s way better than mine. There isn’t much I can do as the GM about Flores. He’s either getting offered a job or he isn’t. There’s no button to push to keep him. With Cousins, I’m moving on. It’s too risky to go down the road of a multiple year deal with something that hasn’t gotten them past the first round. We are exploring options to trade up for Jayden Daniels, deal for Kyler Murray or pick Michael Penix Jr. with our pick. If those things don’t work out, I’m taking someone in the second and signing Baker Mayfield. As for Hunter, I’m offering a four year, $80 million deal with $40 million guaranteed and if he doesn’t want to take that then we part ways and start looking for options to rebuild the defensive line through the draft and free agency.
Stephanie… Let's talk Jaren Hall. There are so many calls by fans to put Hall on the field to "see what we've got" and I actually am guilty as charged because I broke down and said it during the Raiders game. But I'm curious at what point you ruin a rookie QB by playing him before he's ready, particularly a later round pick like Hall? Or might they be forced to because of our tricky situation come draft time? Early mocks have us taking McCarthy, but he'd be a project too. Can you have two rookie project QBs without it being weird?
I think that Jaren Hall has talent and can be an NFL QB. For me it’s too much to ask him to save the season. We’re talking about a guy who averaged 5.5 yards per attempt in the preseason and got sacked once out of every seven drop-backs. I worry about him from a health perspective. Does he have enough experience to know how to protect himself? If they end up out of the playoffs in Week 18, then he should play. Mullens is much better suited to take on the playoff race pressure at the moment.
I don’t think there would be anything wrong with having Hall and a rookie QB in the same room. One thing I’ve felt about Hall is that he’s professional in his approach. He’s going to work with whoever else is in that room. Plus being a fifth-round pick, it’s not like he can expect anything to be given to him. If he acts entitled, he’ll be quickly gone (and I don’t expect that at all from him).
Wade… The more I watch Michael Penix, the more convinced I become that he could be a perfect fit for what KOC is trying to do. Do you see him in the same way? And do you see him being available in the middle to late first round, when the Vikings are likely to pick? Also, how insane are some fans and media members, calling for O’Connell’s head? It’s as though people are incapable of understanding that we’re living in BackupQBLand, which makes the Kirk coaster look like a kiddie ride.
I agree with you on Penix Jr. I saw the stat from Eric Eager on Twitter about how rarely he takes sacks even when he’s pressured and I think that’s a really good sign for his pro prospects. He has absolutely awesome arm talent and is a great leader of that offense. If KOC wants someone to hang in the pocket and fire rockets with anticipation and accuracy, Penix Jr. is definitely a guy who can do that. I like him a lot. I’ve also — right sometimes, wrong sometimes — been drawn to QBs who take their programs to new heights. Who had Washington in the Final Four two years ago when Penix Jr. showed up? It’s been his show.
As for KOC, I really enjoy my group of reasonable Purple Insider subscribers because I feel like you guys prove that people can be passionate and rational at the same time. I’m looking at O’Connell after two years as falling under a similar category as someone like Matt LaFleur or Kevin Stefanski. Do they have shortcomings and things that they are stubborn about? Sure. But they run the operation effectively and have offensive schemes that work. To me, that gives you a chance to win something long term, even if on a week-to-week basis your feelings may vary.
john… Hey Matthew, I see a few other posters are on here supporting KOC. I agree with them. I think the comments about firing him and especially the asinine comments about the play calling is really weak. I'm disappointed in those fans. Question is when do you know play calling IS a problem? I look at their stats, I see they are 11th in total yards. To me bad play calling is when you can tell what is coming before the snap because they've become predictable
Play calling is maddeningly difficult to pick apart. Last week people were criticizing play calling based on literally one play call when the team went for 424 yards with a backup QB and should have scored more if Mullens didn’t lose his mind on two throws in the red zone. The best way I can try to quantify it is through comparing what they have for personnel versus what they produce in efficiency/scoring etc. Before Cousins got hurt they were a top five EPA offense in passing, which is either on par or exceeding expectations. After he went down, their numbers have sunk overall but that’s to be expected. Does anyone think their play calling hasn’t taken advantage of good pass blocking or hasn’t gotten the ball to their stars in Addison/Hockenson? Of course not.
I like your way of looking at it. If we know the answers at home, the defense definitely does.
The critiques that I have about the play calling are more like, if the running game is working, keep running. KOC did that last week but not so much against Chicago. Throw out the trick plays, they are mostly bad. Focus on easy stuff like play-action, screens, underneath passing a little bit more to give more easy buckets for the QB. If it’s third-and-3, you don’t have to get 20 yards. Stuff like that is more nitpicky than major issues.
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