Friday Mailbag: The next steps
Vikings fans want to know how far away they are from playing with the Super Bowl teams and what's next...
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone. Sadly, it’s the slowest weekend of the year in football but you can stay entertained with a robust mailbag with a ton of great questions. Off we go…
Bob… Give us one surprising extension or re-signing that will happen this offseason like Metellus a few years ago. Who’s flying under the radar?
Metellus was a pretty unique case because he had very little history playing defense but Brian Flores loved his game right away so they wanted to make sure he wasn’t going to hit free agency after that year. It was a really smart move because they got way more out of him than his deal. I would say it’s time to re-do that contract and extend him.
Outside of that, Brian O’Neill would make some sense to extend. He’s not entering the final year of his deal but his guaranteed money runs out this year. Maybe that will be just a restructure but they could give him a 2-year extension and have him set until 2028 and lower his cap hit significantly for 2025. Andrew Van Ginkel could be a candidate. He’s only on a two-year deal. Josh Oliver is going to be a free agent after next year and they need to find a way to lower his cap hit.
As far as current free agents go, I think they need to sign Sherfield because he was a huge impact player on special teams. He’s probably the most under-the-radar guy.
Brent O… Are there any 'surprise' veterans that might get cut for cap or skill reasons? Bradbury or Ham for example?
I can’t come up with any other than those two. Let me say this about Bradbury: He’s been crushed by the fans over the years and I thought in 2022 and 2023 that he played well. By the numbers in ‘22, he was a top-10 center. His leadership on the O-line gets ignored despite center being such a super valuable leadership position and he did a fantastic job guiding Sam Darnold through a new system this year. I’m nowhere near as down on Bradbury as a player as a lot of folks who decided what they thought of him in 2021 and haven’t changed.
That said, if the KOC offense is going to lead the NFL in average depth of target and the QB is going to hold onto the ball the third longest of any QB in the NFL (as Darnold did), then it’s going to make life really hard on an undersized center whose specialty is outside zone blocking. Opposing teams know that Darrisaw and O’Neill are great so they send blitzes and stunts up the middle constantly and if the QB isn’t getting rid of the ball, there’s only so long you can ask a lighter center to deal with these huge, nasty DTs. They either have to change how they do things offensively with McCarthy (if he’s the guy in 2025) or they have to move on. I think Bradbury would be good for a quick passing/run/screen team if they decide to move along.
Bradley P… How many years out are the Vikings from truly competing with the Eagles, Bills and Chiefs of the world?
By the regular season numbers, they competed with them this year. Usually the most predictive statistic in terms of playoff success has been Passing EPA and in 2024 the Vikings were 9th, which is two spots behind KC and two spots ahead of Philly. In terms of point differential, the Eagles were better and the Chiefs were worse than the Vikings. They were around even with both teams defensively.
By the numbers, they should have been a pretty good Super Bowl contender. If I remember correctly, the pre-playoffs Vegas odds had them as something like 6th out of 14 teams and fifth was the Bills.
If you told me in any given year that the Vikings had the same passing EPA as the teams that went to the Super Bowl and they had the 6th best SB odds at the end of the regular season and 14 wins and a +100 point differential, I’d say that they had every bit as good chance to win as anyone.
They just didn’t do it. It’s still hard to understand how it went so badly. Sometimes you just land a bad matchup. Sometimes the regular season doesn’t tell us all the answers because playoff football is different. And, as great as the Eagles looked against Washington, they barely survived the Rams because of a snow storm. Football is weird.
That’s Part 1 of the answer. Part 2 is how far away they’re going to be. We can pretty clearly identify the areas where it has to be better. Interior OL and DL. The corners probably can’t just survive. The play caller has to have answers to his line getting killed. They have to have a better run game overall. The QB has to run. I don’t think teams are going to be able to make it through the playoffs by winning from the pocket anymore.
TJG76… Isn’t the floor for a Darnold sign and trade a third rounder? After all, if Darnold just leaves in FA, won’t the comp pick be a 3rd in ‘26? Would be better to get a 3rd in ‘25 via trade.
Correct. Plus a third-round pick in 2025 from the Giants or Raiders is going to be like 30 slots higher than a comp pick. That would be the absolute minimum but it has to be higher than that. Alex Smith was moved for a third-rounder and a player even though the entire world knew they were turning the keys over to Mahomes. There’s at least two teams that desperately need an improvement at QB and probably five that you could make an easy case for them going after Darnold i.e. Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tennessee etc. I would think they could create somewhat of a bidding war and land a second but who knows.
Ben… Do you think the Wilfs don’t get enough credit for being sane owners?? I know it’s a low bar but these stories about some NFL owners turning their franchises into circuses has to be concerning for the NFL
There are a lot of things people take for granted about the Vikings organization while they wallow in the sadness of missed opportunities over the last 60 years. The owners are certainly at the top of the list. The litmus test for me with the Wilfs was the “competitive rebuild.” I was more of a believer in tearing it all apart as soon as KOC and KAM arrived but the fact that they stuck with it after winning 13 games in 2022 and didn’t extend Cousins with the hopes of remaining somewhat competitive passed a big test. Everything else from the facilities to the way players are treated to them seeming to let the football people do their jobs… there aren’t many owners you’d take over them.
Ramsey K…how does the tag and trade work? are the Vikings allowed to talk to other teams about Darnold now, so they can execute a tag and trade more seamlessly? or are we required to wait to start negotiating about him officially until the start of the new league year, after the tag deadline?
I don’t think there’s any rule against talking trade with other teams whenever they want. Things like that usually go down at the Combine — though Hard Knocks revealed the Giants were talking about trading for Brian Burns at the Senior Bowl last year, so I assume it’s always an ongoing thing. As far as negotiating with him, they could also do that whenever they want. He could sign an extension tomorrow.
The franchise tag does have a window though. That’s something like Feb 20 through March 4. They could tag him on the first day before they go to the Combine so everybody knows their intentions to trade him or they could wait until the last day before the deadline. I’m really not sure how it’s going to play out timing wise.
Eldon… Do you think the Vikings would trade down from pick 24? And which Running Back Prospect has the best name for a rb? I personally like Cam Skattebo as a name and guy Vikings could look at in later rounds. Just sounds fun to cheer for.
I do think they would (and probably should) trade down from 24. I don’t want to ruin my Monday draft simulation but there is a strong possibility that I’ll move down to gather more capital. I’ve always felt that between picks 20-40 were the best places to move down. If you get past 40, there’s usually a drop off but the early second round often has a lot of good players.
Skattebo does sound fun. His metrics are also terrific. He had an elite Elusive Rating and Yards After Contact and graded well in zone + gap schemes. PFF has him in an average draft position on draft sims of 74th overall. As a third-rounder, that could be a great pick.
Ronan M… Credible to extend Aaron Jones to pair with a rookie? Seems a perfect vet for that
Yes, that’s not a bad plan. My concern is obviously with Jones’s health. Rico Dowdle had essentially the same year as Jones and is 27 years old and has basically no milage on his body after sitting around for three years in Dallas.
The big mistake of last year was going into the season with only Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu as possible RB2s and then had to scramble to get Cam Akers. They need a little more of a volume approach this time around.
Matt D… Do the Vikings need to bring in a quality free agent at LT for next year? We talk about McCarthy like he’s made of glass and might not be ready to start, but Darrisaw’s injury was later in the year and much more serious than JJ’s. Cam Robinson is going to be gone and Quessenberry is a free agent they didn’t have enough confidence in to roll with last year.
No quality free agent left tackle is signing with the Vikings when Christian Darrisaw is there. The reality about that position is that there’s about 15 humans who can do it and the rest are just hanging on for dear life. I also really like the way Walter Rouse looked in training camp last year. I think he could start developing as a guard but I like him as a swing tackle too. But overall, asking for a good backup LT is like asking for a good backup QB. They basically don’t exist unless it’s a guy you’ve drafted and developed.
Joel…. Not a question just an observation, I’ve been a fan for almost 5 decades and I’ve never felt more hopeless or cared less. Realizing that we went through almost 20 years of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger only to now have Mahomes and possibly Jayden Daniels for the next 20 years makes the league feel completely like a waste of time. The Vikings are a good organization, but it just feels like it doesn’t matter ultimately, it’s all window dressing for the two or three elite QBs per generation. I may stop watching the NFL.
Well, my friend, when I was growing up the New York Knicks were my favorite team. Guess who shattered all of their dreams every year? Michael Jordan. If you’re a Minnesota Twins fan today, explain to me how they are going to compete with the Dodgers. If you were a Phoenix Cardinals fan in the 70s, you were probably aware that Dallas and Pittsburgh were going to play for the Super Bowl every year.
If you were a Jets fan in the 90s, you figured Buffalo or Denver was going to reach the Super Bowl every year and lose to Dallas. If you were a Tampa Bay Bucs fan in the 80s, you were absolutely certain that the 49ers were going to win more than your team. Heck, if your favorite golfer wasn’t Tiger Woods or your favorite tennis player wasn’t Federer, you were out of luck. Magic/Bird? LeBron? Golden State?
UConn and South Carolina win at NCAA women’s basketball. A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart dominate the pros. When boxing mattered, Mike Tyson killed everybody.
Parity in sports is mostly fake. But every so often, Joel, Trent Dilfer or Nick Foles wins the Super Bowl and it’s pretty wild.
I really can’t stand the idea that watching the Minnesota Vikings is only worth it if they are going to win the Super Bowl. Football is the most beautiful intersection between drama and puzzle that man has ever created. It’s a never-ending roller coaster, filled with incredible highs and lows, celebrations and heartbreaks and the people involved are the most gifted on earth. If you can’t appreciate any of that regardless of the final result, I’m not sure that a championship is going to be as fulfilling as you think.
JimDanks… Is a Kwesi extension a forgone conclusion or is it up in the air more than we think?
Based on the Schefter report that they’re working on it, I’m going on the assumption that it’s going to happen soon enough. If we get to the Combine without a new deal, it would be a bit suspicious.
Florian K… Are there analytics which identifies "shutdown" corners? Do you know if Flores prefer corners who are press/man or zone? Which moves the needle more - a penetrating DT or a quality corner?
Everybody wants press/man corners, there just aren’t that many of them. Per PFF, there were only 6 corners who played man coverage more than 40% of the time this year. They all played for either the Patriots or the Lions. All of them graded badly in man coverage except Christian Gonzalez. Out of the top 20 man coverage corners by usage, only Pat Surtain, Sauce Gardner, Marlon Humphry and Denzel Ward graded over 70 (min. 20 targets). Byron Murphy Jr.’s 66.4 grade was 16th best.
Basically, if you’re playing man coverage more than about 20% of the time in today’s NFL without an elite talent, you’re probably getting throttled. But if you have one of those guys, it’s worth its weight in gold.
A penetrating DT moves the needle as much as anything in the sport outside of an elite QB, in my opinion. There were only 12 DTs this year who produced 50+ pressures. Interior linemen have no answers for the best of the best — who knows that better than the Vikings, who have been destroyed by those types for the last decade.
Thomas S… Do you anticipate any changes on the coaching staff?
I would be surprised if they made too many moves after winning 14 games but it’s hard to pinpoint when teams want to make shifts in the coaching staff because we don’t really know the behind-the-scenes dynamics between HC and his staff.
Jason…. Talk me into enjoying a Super Bowl where I want to see both teams lose.
It’s a really good matchup, the teams are deserving and it’s the Super Bowl. Get some pizza with some friends and have a good time. We don’t have to make everything into a crisis.
Dan…. How much better would this be if we were looking ahead to a Bills vs Lions Superbowl? That would make for some good podcasting with you and Murphy.
Literally every matchup of any combination of the playoff teams would have been better to talk about than Eagles/Chiefs in the lead up to the game. It has the potential to be an incredible game but it’s deeply lacking in storylines or Vikings-adjacent chatter.
Devin R… Given the needs elsewhere, let's say the Vikings can only replace 2/3 of the interior O-line. Which two holes do they fill and who do you think should stay in the starting lineup?
If I’m filling only two spots, it’s easily both guards and keeping Bradbury. As I continue to defend him, allow me to throw this out there: Has the guy ever had any help? Multiple times in his career he’s played alongside a 6th-round tackle who was transitioning into guard. He’s never played with anyone paid more than $5 million. In his whole career! I believe Josh Kline had the highest cap hit of any guard the Vikings have had since 2019 and that was $3 million. That’s insane.
Rob K… Given his cap number, recent injuries, and being a bit of a pain in the ass, what are the odds Jaire Alexander becomes a free agent? Scary to determine what you'd pay him, but when he's playing he's one of the best in the league so if you're the Vikings what's your interest?
Given Vikes have so few picks--and the difference between a player at 24 and around 40 may be minor--it seems like they'll move down, but if you had to place a percentage on it what would it be? And besides an amazing drop of players like DT Graham, CB Johnson, and RB Jeanty is there anyone you absolutely stay for and make the pick?
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