Friday mailbag: The next steps

The Vikings have a coach and GM, now fans want to talk trades

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! It feels like only last Friday that we were talking about the first Mailbag of the NFL season and now we’ve reached the last. By next week, we’re officially in offseason mode. Crazy. So let’s have a look at what’s on fans’ minds this week…

@grouper24 lot of talk around cutting hunter in offseason. Looking at “over the cap” his cap hit pretty much same whether you restructure vs cut. In that case doesn’t it just make sense to keep him and hope he stays healthy?

This isn’t one of those situations where they can wave the magic salary-to-bonus wand and make it all go away because he has an $18 million bonus due on the fifth day of the league year. If they are going to lower his cap hit, it has to be in the form of an extension. There is an option where they add void years but that doesn’t seem like something a team trying to get its cap situation straight wants to do. Otherwise they have to cut or trade him (and still eat some cap). It’s hard to imagine Adofo-Mensah, who came from teams where they built up the D-lines, letting go of somebody special like Hunter but this one could come down to negotiations.

@Brandon_Warne Can you talk me out of taking Malik Willis? Including possibly trading up if it takes that?

The only time trades up are justifiable is when there’s only one or two QB prospects worth a darn (see: Goff/Wentz draft) and the drop off from there is massive…and you’re desperate for a QB. San Francisco trading up for Trey Lance last year might work out for them in the long run but that type of deal is extremely risky. I wouldn’t do that for Willis. If the difference between Willis, Pickett, Howell and Ridder is only percentage points, wait until No. 12 and then take whichever guy is there. If it gets to pick No. 10 and you think No. 11 is going to take him, OK sure, do it. On Willis as a prospect, I’m not going to talk you out of it. PFF’s draft guide compared him to Kordell Stewart. If you put Kordell Stewart in a 2022 offense, look out. (PFF is also not as high on him as some others but that’s draft season for ya).

@BaseballNorm have the Wilf’s gone too far in their push for “collaboration” that the idea of winning has become secondary objective? If both Kwesi and KOC said they want to keep Kirk should that be a red flag on how this is going to turn out as I see .500 seasons ahead?

These insider reports are…meh. I wouldn’t draw any conclusions out of “O’Connell likes Kirk.” We have to wait and see how they handle things this offseason to understand the overall plan because they’re definitely not telling Jeremy Fowler everything they’re going to do. If you want to understand how “dialed in” outsiders are to what the Wilfs and upper management are thinking, see: Rick Spielman, reported President of Football Operations and Jim Harbaugh, reported head coach.

We probably won’t have to wait long to start finding out the answers to these questions. The QB trade market is about to fire up right after the Super Bowl. I also don’t think the “do they want to win” question entirely hinges on trading Cousins this offseason. They could draft someone and play out Cousins’ deal. If they sign him to a mega extension, then I would really wonder how that’s being justified as a winning move.

@Willpa11 More likely the Vikings try and sneak 9-10 wins and go all in? Or blow it up, Trade Kirk and try and get one of the elite QBs in 2023 and build around JJet and Dalvin? (They should do the latter)

What I used to do on Madden was put the punter in at quarterback and simulate the season so I’d get the No. 1 pick. As long as the quarterback wasn’t Tom Tupa, because he could win some games (olds will get this joke). I would be very surprised if they imploded the thing with the aim of drafting Bryce Young in 2023. Until something changes, I’m sticking with the most likely scenario being a Cousins trade, first-round QB pick and bridge QB like Marcus Mariota/Mitch Trubisky/Jameis Winston. Is there a case for bottoming out? Absolutely. It’s just hard to see it happening.

@NicholasMMiller What do you think a realistic contract extension for Kirk Cousins would look like? How much money could they push into next year and what would be the consequences of that? Maybe @PFF_Brad can give a guest answer here if he is willing.

Based on what the top quarterbacks get, he’s not doing it for any less than $35 million per year over three years. That probably means dropping his cap hit by like $10 million in 2022 and having it be similar to this year in 2023. If I’m Cousins’ agent, nobody is convincing me to make my client take a pay cut when he’s put up the numbers that he has over the last two years. Jared Goff is making $33 million per year and Carson Wentz, $32 million, how could Kirk go below those marks? Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell can tell everyone they want Cousins and then after he’s traded (or the contract runs out), they can say that they couldn’t get a deal done because his demands were too expensive.

@NicholasM_1993 I see Anthony Barr has a $10M dead cap next year on a void year. Would it make sense for the VIkes to sign him for something close to that since he will count against the cap anyway, so you might as well have him? Or does it not work like that?

The answer directly from PFF cap expert Brad Spielberger: “If they signed him to an extension for 2022 they could keep the bonus prorations split out like they have them, so he'd have $4.945M + salary as his cap hit. Can save some money there.”

Otherwise, yeah, he will have a $10 million dead cap hit for 2022. This really tells you about how kicking money down the road eventually comes to bite you…and it shows how Rick Spielman was trying to save his job in recent years by doing stuff like this. I would be very surprised if Barr did agree to an extension to stick around based on some of his comments at the end of the year.

@krisgraewin how does the past few years change, if the Trent Williams trade goes through on draft night?

If the best left tackle in the league is fully healthy for two years, he is probably worth about one win over a replacement level player. But the thing about Trent Williams is that he isn’t always fully healthy and the Vikings didn’t have replacement level players at left tackle. Riley Reiff was really good in 2020 and Christian Darrisaw played solidly when he got a chance. There were only a handful of regrettable Rashod Hill games mixed in. Maybe the Vikings could have won the Cleveland game if they had Trent Williams. Otherwise, I think it would have ended up being similar to the Yannick Ngakoue deal, where they traded an asset for a really good player but it didn’t change their fate and hurt them in the long run. That’s not even considering the cap and what they would have needed to do in order to make his salary work. You’d much rather have the way it played out with Darrisaw.

@zang100 Are they going to hire an OC or just O’Connell and Modkins running the show?

They’ll definitely hire an OC. Wes Phillips’ name has been thrown out there. If O’Connell calls plays, he’s still going to need somebody to gameplan, install the offense, work hand-in-hand with position coaches and be the quarterback’s best friend, just like O’Connell was with the Rams this year. Modkins is going to be the RBs coach and run-game coordinator, it seems.

@WriterChurchill What are your long term plans for your hair? Where do you see your hairline in, say, 5 years? 10 years?

This is a question regarding somebody on Twitter attacking my hairline. Best I can hope for is the Bill Cowher look where I become more distinguished as it drifts backward. I don’t think it’s going really badly now but anybody in their mid-30s knows that you can wake up one day and look like Homer Simpson.

@ATKing53632390 Kirk Cousins off-season outcomes pie chart! Extend 45 cap hit and blow up the roster Trade Other??

I’ll go with 20% Extend, 20% that he plays on the current deal, 60% that he’s traded. It’s a little hard to figure when we haven’t heard O’Connell or Adofo-Mensah talk about anything with the roster. We can’t even try to read between the lines.

@SrEconomy Might as well move down the path… who are the favored choices for OC and DC as that probably effects our top draft choices or strategies for moving up and down to get our men.

It sounds like Ed Donatell and Wes Phillips are the possible DC and OC. We can’t say for sure until it actually happens. I don’t think the DC/OC hires will change anything draft wise. Or at least it isn’t wise to let that happen. I remember watching a video where Wade Phillips talked about reshaping techniques for his 3-4 rushers back in the day based on their skill sets. Draft good players, make them fit.

@Conorm511 With O’Connell as the new coach , what’s your opinion on going receiver if someone like Olave drops ?

Everything depends on if they trade Cousins. Should they end up with two draft picks in the first round, wide receivers shouldn’t be out of the question. One thing to copy from the Rams is that they never seemed to think two good receivers was enough. They drafted Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell when they didn’t “need” a receiver. Plus you are always looking down the road. Adam Thielen is still good but he probably transitions into a No. 3 at some point. KJ Osborn had a good year and Ihmir Smith-Marsette flashed a tiny bit but there’s no reason to settle on that position when good receivers clearly boost QB performance. The last regime also made mistakes by thinking they could cut corners with WR3/4/5.

@jacoblaxen With a potential shift to a 3-4 front, how does that impact the decision on Hunter if at all?

It shouldn’t impact that decision. Edge rushers are edge rushers. All 3-4 changes versus 4-3 is how teams approach the strength of the offense. It doesn’t mean Hunter has to suddenly become Derrick Thomas and stand up off the edge or play 5-technique like Cam Heyward. No matter what scheme they use, it’s going to be Hunter vs. the right tackle on every play.

@Zenkid80 Do you really think that this new regime can walking into this new marriage, see how much they are in debt, and still want to keep the expensive car in the front yard? Knowing they’ll have to work double shifts just to make ends meet? Idk

Great analogy. They have to ask themselves: Is Kirk Cousins a good fit for this team right now? You can build around an expensive QB contract, it’s not impossible, but it’s hard. It means getting some draft luck, nailing second tier free agent signings and being pretty ruthless with letting guys on the current roster go. Where Bill Belichick was brilliant is that he was always willing to cut somebody that he didn’t think was worth the price. Are they ready to do that to rebuild the roster around an expensive contract? And does the performance meet the price?

@KennyHoeschen Could you discuss the timeline after the Super Bowl? (a) when do we expect an official announcement re: KOC; (b) when might KOC hold a press conference; (c) with all the questions around cap space and trading, when can teams start trading players and when does it typically happen

Sure. O’Connell will probably be announced somewhere between the Tuesday and Thursday after the Super Bowl, depending on when they get his contract finalized and such. Players can’t officially be traded until the league year starts in mid-March but they can agree to trades whenever. We saw Stafford and Wentz both moved before the end of February. When we talk about restructures, re-signings and cuts etc., that stuff usually happens at the Combine where teams meet with all the agents and make those decisions.

@mnjoker0015 In a potential Cousins trade is it more important to dump the most money possible or acquire the most assets possible?

Go with the most assets. If the Vikings take $20 million of Kirk’s deal to get a first-round pick and pay Marcus Mariota $10 million to play QB next year, it’s completely worth it. That gives them the ability to pick a QB and get another potential impact player high in the draft. They can deal with a shortage of cap space for 2022 in order to have a ready-to-win roster in 2023.

@LolosAlex If Kirk is traded what are the chances we get the full $35 mil in cap relief as oppose to still paying some of the contract

Really depends on the team that’s acquiring him but I don’t think it’s super likely someone takes the entire $35 million. There’s only eight teams that have $35 million in open space (per OverTheCap) next year. The Broncos and maybe Colts are the only teams among those six who are looking for a QB trade. Unless Mike McDaniel wants to send Tua to Minnesota for Cousins. Hmmmm.

@carpetkaiser How would it change your outlook on the new regime if they extend Kirk Cousins

Yes. It would say pretty loudly that they think they are a few pieces away from being a legitimate contender and I’m just not sure how that conclusion would be reached based on what they have and what the salary cap looks like. I’d be wondering exactly what Wall Street formula they used to come up with doubling down on something that hasn’t worked. If they do it, the pressure amps up immediately. If he gets a three-year extension, expectations are raised for the next two years back to Super Bowl or bust. If they keep him on a one-year deal or trade him, I’ll be looking at everything through a long-term lens.