Friday Mailbag: The heat of the playoff race

The Vikings are in serious contention for the conference and fans have lots of questions about the playoffs and Sam Darnold's future

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. Crazy times, aye? Off to Seattle this week. Should be an interesting game. Let’s have a look at what’s on your minds…

Brad L… Think any of the Gilmore replacements have earned playing time even when he returns?

It’s really just been Fabian Moreau and yes. He got banged up against the Bears and might miss the Seattle game but if he’s healthy the rest of the way then he has earned the trust to go in the game when they need a little more man coverage. It probably helped that he didn’t have the same amount of milage on his body that the other corners did. I’ve even had the thought that it might have been good for Gilmore to get injured and survive it so he could be more fresh down the stretch (so long as his hamstring is OK).

Dwight McGlothern only got a dozen coverage snaps in Gilmore absence, which tells you that he isn’t likely to see much work from here on but it was good for him to get in a game or two so he won’t be shocked if something happens and he has to play. Plus a few of those coverage reps were pretty good.

Bradley P…. Is it just me or is KOC either getting the plays in quicker this year or Darnold more skilled at not taking delays like Kirky boy was?

That was happening earlier in the year and they were able to fix it. I got the impression from what O’Connell said that he wasn’t getting some of the plays in quick enough to do all the motions and adjustments at the line of scrimmage. The other part sounded like Justin Jefferson suggested making things a little more simple. Cutting down on the moving parts and allowing them to just beat their defenders rather than always trying to be so tricky. Good observation by you that they have largely cleaned that up.

Tom… I was intrigued to hear you say Josh Metellus could be a future HC - could you talk more about why you think that? On a general note this is such a fun season. Not too long ago we had to be interested in a trade for Chris Herndon!

Glad you’re having a good time, Tom. It’s not just that they are good, it’s that they got good by making the right decisions. It isn’t falling backward into it. I’ve heard a little bit of “who have they beaten” but look around the league and tell me which teams have 10 wins vs. great teams. There aren’t enough teams to have more than a handful of victories versus playoff teams.

Anyway, to your question about Josh Metellus, he reminds me of a mix between KOC and Brian Flores. He’s very positive and incredibly smart. He might finish second in a football IQ test on the entire team to Harrison Smith. Every time I talk with him, I’m so impressed by his ability to explain the game to folks like myself, who are definitely not on his football knowledge level or anywhere close. He’s an incredible communicator. He loves the game. He also has a competitive edge to him and a never ending amount of energy. He also understands every facet of the game, not just his position (because his position is everywhere).

It’s one of things things that you know when you see it after enough guys have come through and become coaches.

Ramsey K…. Which 12-2 NFC team would you rather be? Eagles seem like the best bet to get home field advantage, but the passing offense has troubles, Lions should have the best overall teams, but injuries, and Vikings are overall very good and mostly healthy...

It’s a toss up. There’s good arguments across the board. The thing that the Eagles have that the others don’t is a recent Super Bowl appearance. I’m not sure if I could prove it but that feels like it would be an advantage. The Eagles and Vikings have nearly identical numbers as passing defenses and the Vikings and Lions have very close passing offenses. The Lions and Eagles run the ball better but the Vikings have the best receiving trio of the group. The others have proven QBs but being a proven QB doesn’t guarantee you anything in a world where Nick Foles, Jimmy G and Brock Purdy have been to the Super Bowl.

It’s a crazy race man. Oh, also, don’t forget about those Packers. They have moved up into 8th place in Passing Expected Points Added for the season, which is impressive when you consider they had to play their backup QB for a few weeks. Anything could happen. The key is that the Vikings are right in the middle of that rather than hoping for some type of December/January miracle.

Mark T… Patchman - Matt, there are a number of scenarios when it comes to the end of the season for Sam Darnold. I would like to know your take on creating the most draft picks value back to the Vikings when they release him, franchise him, trade him, etc.

My take right now is that I’d like to see Sam Darnold under center next September for the Minnesota Vikings but if they were to move on the option to maximize return would be the tag and trade or the non-exclusive franchise tag that allows other teams to make a bid and then give the Vikings two first-round picks if they don’t match the offer. Releasing him can’t be an option at this point because it would only be a third-round comp pick in 2026.

Pickle Enjoyer…. Seeing Sherfield blocking on runs has me thinking 1) this is something that works and 2) they are putting this on tape for play action in the playoffs.

Every great NFL team needs a bunch of quiet heroes. Sherfield, despite his penalty for running into the punter last week (which they probably shouldn’t have taken him off gunning anyway), has been one of those guys. He is an extra tight end out there with his blocking and yet he’s a receiver with a lot of catches to his name in the NFL. That allows them to be dynamic with play-action when he’s out there and we’ve already seen a handful of plays where they do have him running deep on those. His toughness is really unique. You don’t see too many guys unafraid to take on edge players if he’s asked to do it. KOC has done some McVay type stuff that the Rams did with Kupp and Woods for years.

Rad…. While attending the game this past Monday, I noticed Turner was subbing in late almost to the point where if a veteran QB noticed they could’ve drew a flag. Is this on Turner for not tracking what packages he is in? Or something to do with coaching and communication?

I didn’t notice that, so I would need to see the situation to know if it looked like a communication issue or just the fact that they’re switching up a lot of bodies this late in the season and everyone is scrambling to get in and out. That might be the LB coach relaying it to him or it might be him needing to be a little more ready on the sideline. I’m not sure. It’s pure chaos on the sideline during those games.

As a note, I’m interested to see if Turner keeps getting the same playing time that he’s had recently. Each week it feels like there’s been a little more momentum and a few more splash plays.

Jake W… Admittedly, I dont have the ability to be glued to my TV anymore but where does JJ McCarthy watch the games? I have not seen him at all that I can recall. Do we know what he does on a day-to-day basis to do what he can to not lose a whole season? I heard Seifert say he does some virtual reality stuff.

He’s on the sideline, I believe. I haven’t looked for him but I think KOC said he was going to be there once he was medically OK to protect himself from getting hurt if players came tumbling toward him. As far as his week, he’s in the QB room helping out and learning from the veterans. He does his rehab and meets with KOC once a week to talk about some key learning points from the previous week’s game. The virtual reality thing sounds like he’s getting video from a camera on Darnold’s helmet so he can study where his eyes are going and the calls that he’s making at the line of scrimmage.

This year is definitely not a waste. The biggest thing might be just seeing how Darnold has handled himself. I would use Darnold’s 2024 as “act like a pro” teach tape. He handled McCarthy being picked extremely well, improved by taking coaching extremely well, he’s never thrown anyone under the bus, including his trashy former teams and he hasn’t let any of the noise effect him. Great role model.

Matt D… Mike Tanier had a piece about how the Vikes have the highest net penalty yard differential in the league (+310), which is almost twice as much as the team behind them. Believe I also saw something saying Jefferson had the most penalty yards in his favor for a WR. Any takes on how important that is or whether they’ll be able to continue the trend in the playoffs?

My first instinct would be to say that penalty advantage disappears in the playoffs because the refs are much more apt to let things go and that appears to be correct from the numbers. This year teams average 6.5 penalties per game but out of the 8 teams that played at least 2 playoff games last year, only the Texans cleared 6.5 penalties. The Lions played three playoff games and got 10 penalties for 66 yards.

This is probably why PFF found that No. 2 and 3 receivers were just as valuable if not more so in the playoffs toward winning. Because teams will just grab and hold and assume it won’t get called. Lucky for Jefferson, even though he leads the league in penalty yards, he’s used to that strategy.

Jason… I’ve watched some press conferences recently. Is Sam Darnold the best at giving generic answers to questions you have seen? Make a top 3 list.

I don’t know if anyone approaches him but you have to consider the substances of most of the questions he has been asked this year. Almost every week, the main line of questioning has something to do with having a breakout season. I don’t think he wants to talk at all about this as a big surprise because to him it isn’t surprising at all. This is what he always thought he was going to be.

He’s also not going to bare his soul to us and share his deepest thoughts and fears. But there’s a lot of benefits to doing it this way. He never points fingers at teammates. He never creates headlines that cause distractions. And I honestly think most of the cliche answers are actually true. He is literally taking this one game at a time. He has to do that. Otherwise he wouldn’t be able to focus on winning right now. I like his approach, even if he isn’t a quote machine.

I don’t think I can really do a top three because we have had such good luck with guys over the years. Certainly players who do weekly press conferences are forced into cliches sometimes but guys like Kyle Rudolph or Adam Thielen were also really good at going in depth too.

Jeff…. My take on the Darnold experience: he's always had the physical tools of a franchise QB. Sam has taken a massive step forward in his ability to stay cool & deliver under pressure. Kirk couldn't do this. When pressured, everything just goes too fast for him & he makes poor decisions. If Kirk would have signed a reasonable extension, we could have acquired the same FA defensive players & I think we'd be sitting at 9 wins. Fans would be thrilled, but they never would have known how much better they would be with a QB who had a bigger arm, could extend plays & execute under pressure. Your thoughts?

I don’t see any sentences that I disagree with.

Physical talent matters and playmaking matters. If it was all about executing the offense, a lot of journeymen would have had jobs much longer.

Eldin… Ben Goessling mentioned the Vikings should consider bringing back Kirk as a backup/bridge for $10 mill but what if instead of bringing in Kirk as QB could KOC considering bringing Kirk in as a QB coach if McCown leaves?

I don’t think Ben actually suggested that it would be a good idea to bring him back as a backup. He was asked if it was possible and pointed out that because of offsetting language in his contract that a team could sign him for basically nothing i.e. Russell Wilson.

My answer to all of that is: No.

Bringing back a guy who was once the highest paid starter to be the backup (and has stats just like Nick Mullens now) doesn’t make much sense to me. Also McCown had a good amount of coaching experience before getting to the Vikings. Just taking a player from the NFL and assuming they can coach is not a good strategy.

I actually think Kirk should do TV or look for a stake in ownership or a front office position. He’s actually a great player evaluator. When he would give observations about guys, I would always be amazed at the detail and his memory for specific plays and examples. He knows the league inside and out.

Brent O… Since everyone seems to be concerned about the 2025 off season already (instead of fully enjoying this fantastic run), but who are non-Darnold your "must sign" internal free agents? My takes High priority: Bynum & Murphy Vets that if the price is right: Aaron Jones, Pat Jones II (but Turner may make him replaceable), Gilmore, Griffin, Tillery. Has a job as long as he wants: Harrison Smith

Keeping it together is important. Defensive backs understanding Flores’s coverages is vital. The thing about Bynum and Murphy Jr. is… how much are they going to want? Really good players but they always have a number. If they both want to be top paid at their position they might have to try something else. They do have Theo Jackson in the back pocket and Mekhi Blackmon. I’d guess Jones II moves on like DJ Wonnum did. Aaron Jones would be a good one to bring back but they have to pair him with a young RB that they can split reps with.

Biggest M… Kamu Grugier-Hill. Kickoffs. Thoughts?

I saw KC was using their safety. It makes sense in theory. In practice, maybe not so much. Imagine Grugier-Hill hurts his hamstring kicking because he never does it in games. The kicker also has to be accurate with the landing area and height or it’s going to screw up the coverage. Is he actually good enough at kicking it to do that?

Brian_H…I'm doing my best to enjoy this gift of an unexpected season (I predicted 10-7), but can't help looking ahead. Pie chart: Most likely end to this magical ride? - Vikings lose the battle at the line of scrimmage - Turnover woes make a comeback - KOC does a Pete Carrol impression near the goal line - Alien invasion destroys stadium as clock winds down on Vikings-Bills Super Bowl - Setting out lawn chairs on Twin Cities streets

The most obvious answer here is the aliens invade just before Will Reichard is about to kick the Super Bowl-winning extra point. I guess I’ll go with losing the battle of the line of scrimmage 25%, turnovers 50%, KOC trick play in the red zone 10% and lawn chairs 15%.

We are at the point where we know all the strengths and weaknesses. They pass the ball very well, they pass block pretty well, they pressure opposing QBs and have good overall numbers vs. the pass. The weakness is that good teams have been able to get the ball out quick and create extended drives. It’s going to come down to matchups but they have fairly equal chances to the other top NFC teams as we speak.

Bradley P…. The Athletic had an article on the 2022 coach and GM hiring and how hard it is to hit on them. With a lot of us feeling, at times, that our team is cursed, how fortunate should we feel that the Wilfs found these two gems?

Unimaginably lucky. Think about the teams that are rock solid when it comes to front office and coaches — the 49ers, Steelers, Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Rams — that’s where the Vikings get to live now. There may be ups and downs in the future but they are going to have the leadership to guide them through it. It’s invaluable to have a healthy functioning building.

The Wilfs having a move at GM that was unorthodox at the time and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah bringing in an unproven coach from the right tree with the right culture and offensive philosophy was key.

I was thinking about this today with the Jets story in The Athletic about how dysfunctional they are. I bet there’s quite a few good coaches and GMs who have zero chance of success because of their wacky owners. Just having people in charge that aren’t criminally insane gets the Vikings into the top half of the league.

Trevor W… Any way the team decides to reinvent the way head coaches are in the nfl? We essentially have two head coaches with KOC and Flores and since the pendulum usually swings from if you have an offensive coach and things go bad you hire a defensive one, would if we hired Flores and KOC as both head coaches on a two year rotating schedule as to who is calling the head coaching shots but then we get to keep them both and avoid them getting burnt out?

I’m all for creative ideas but I wouldn’t change a darn thing about this setup. KOC is special at this.

You have to give Brian Flores an absolute bleep ton of credit for what he’s done with the defensive side but the head coach’s job is so much different than just being in charge of one side of the ball. O’Connell is managing an entire building. There is no way to accurately explain all the decisions he has to make in a week as the head coach. He sets the tone for the organization, providing the messages to the players, making the schedule, meeting with ownership and the front office, dealing with the media and on and on. KOC is making it look like it’s not that hard but I promise you it’s an impossible task. So few people can handle it, that’s why most coaches fail.

And that’s the thing about Flores. He was a good head coach with Miami but he’s a masterful DC. Leave it that way if you can keep him.

Chris H… Aside from being called for what seemed like 17 penalties versus the Bears, how would you assess Cam Robinson’s play at LT? Beyond PFF grades, are you noticing any changes in scheme relative to that position? Running any less to that side? More likely to help him with a TE or RB?

I would describe it as season-saving. He has allowed them to play the same in the passing game without needing to constantly shift protections to his side or give him help on every play. I haven’t noticed much difference at all there. When it comes to the running game, it does seem like Josh Oliver ends up over that side pretty often. Last week they were using Oliver and Mundt on his side and they would double the DE and Robinson would block inside.

Robinson’s build makes it tough for him to be a dominant run blocker because guys can get underneath his pads a bit but they have figured out some good ways to run outside zone to the left or power with Oliver or Risner pulling and those pitches usually go behind Brian O’Neill.

Ben… What’s a bigger issue for the Bears with Caleb Williams?? The fact that he looks like he’s quitting out there or that he can’t see the field properly??

Both are extremely concerning. He’s very, very talented but the quarterbacks who make it are able to fight through just about anything. I remember George Iloka telling me that Ben Roethlisberger would drive him crazy when he was in Cincinnati because he could throw five INTs and the next possession he’d come back and lead a touchdown drive to keep his team in the game. No matter how much you hit them or confuse or frustrate them, the great QBs are relentless. Williams didn’t look that way against the Vikings. He wanted to go back to SoCal.

Not being able to see the field is one of the top reasons quarterbacks fail in the NFL. That was Justin Fields’s problem. You can’t just expect to scramble around all the time to be able to see the receivers. I remember seeing a stat that something like 65% of Patrick Mahomes’s throws in his MVP season were on his first read. He actually struggles when his receivers don’t get open fast and he has to do too much screwing around to find someone. The athletes are too incredible in the NFL to rely on that.

Everyone is going to endlessly blame the organization and their coaches but if I’m Ryan Poles, I am 10 out of 10 worried that I picked the guy who’s gonna fail out of all these good quarterbacks in the class.

Kyle S… Is Kirk done as a starting quarterback or could he revitalize his career?

I really don’t know. When was the last time you saw a quarterback in the NFL play as badly as he did over the last five games? The numbers are crazy. He threw one touchdown, nine interceptions and took 11 sacks. His QB rating was 63.8 in that span. It’s just hard to see how he is going to improve from this considering his age and shortage of natural athletic gifts. I guess there’s always a team that would take someone could play quarterback at all but who’s going to make him the starter after this? They couldn’t even run play-action under center with him in there. Most teams have athletes at QB these days. Is he going to hold a clipboard?

Derrick K… What intrigues you the most about Sunday’s game in Seattle? If the Vikings can continue leaning on the running game. Rotating defensive players to reduce snap counts for key players. Something else?

For me it’s how the Vikings handle Seattle’s pass rush. In the playoffs they are going to see teams that can get after the passer and the last few weeks there has been some shakiness vs. good players and good blitzes. They will have to handle Leonard Williams, who is having a terrific season. We know the DTs are often successful against this team. And they have good corners to go along with the rush. You’re right about the running game, it’s going to be huge.

I don’t see them really trying to reduce the snap counts much for the key players. They are chasing the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, that’s going to be the first priority. Only if it’s a three score game in the fourth would they take out guys like Greenard and Cashman.

Sarah F… Will the NFL ever change the playoff seeding to record based not just by division winner? It’s still kind of absurd that a team could have 2 or 3 losses and potentially have to go on the road to play a .500 or below team

I wish they would, Sarah. It doesn’t make a lick of sense for a team to win 14 games and then have to travel to play a 10-win team. I’m sure they would claim that they want division titles to mean something but… sorry, it doesn’t mean anything in comparison to winning in the playoffs. Is there any other league that does this? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills looking at Vikings scenarios where they go on the road to play the Bucs or Falcons.