Friday Mailbag: The final mailbag before draft time
Next week the Vikings make their biggest franchise decision in a long time
Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone! One more week.
Just a quick note, the Purple Insider Draft Guide comes out on Monday so everybody keep an eye out for that.
Let’s dive in…
Eldon… Mailbag Question, so after listening to one of the recent episodes and hearing the Chargers might not want to trade with the Vikes because of Harbaugh feeling slighted and i wondered what if it is the opposite? Harbaugh wants folks to think the Chargers won't trade with the Vikings then pulls off a trade to put JJ McCarthy in the best possible team situation to help out his former QB and his own reputation?
Let me first say that nothing was reported about Harbaugh not wanting to trade with the Vikings because they picked somebody else for the job, I just wondered about it on the podcast. If we are giving him 3D chess credit then the best theory regarding Harbaugh is that he kept saying McCarthy was the best quarterback prospect on planet earth because he wants the jack up the price to trade up as high as possible. Whether he wants McCarthy to get drafted high as a feather in his cap is hard to say. Can any of us really put ourselves in that man’s head?
Jason… What are the odds for each of the teams in picks 3-5 from trading back to 11? I have to feel like it is pretty low for the Patriots.
The Patriots being the farthest away and needing a quarterback would naturally make them the obvious choice for the lowest odds of making a deal with the Vikings but I still think there’s a good case for it from their perspective. If their coaching staff and front office aren’t aligned 100% on the third QB off the board then they can’t go for it. They already blew it with Mac Jones by creating a horrendous environment. It stands to reason that they might want to build up the roster for a year or two before a big swing, unless they want to be the next Carolina. So I’ll say 50% that they would say yes to a big enough deal.
Arizona I’m actually skeptical about because they should really want Harrison Jr. and they have a bunch of draft capital. It’s always good to have more but it’s also very difficult to replace greatness. Maybe that’s 40% despite their public comments. I’ll go with 60% on the Chargers. If McCarthy/Maye/Daniels makes it to No. 5, they could have the phones ringing off the hook and they need more players. It’s a great O-line draft so they could pick O-line at 11 and lose nothing.
Ch0… What would the scenario be if it turns out that Bo Nix is O'Connell's favorite QB prospect?
It would be pretty simple: KOC would have to believe that he was the best “processer” in the draft. When I watch Nix, I struggle to see why he isn’t liked more. He gets rid of the ball so quickly even when he’s throwing 10-20 yards downfield, he has touch on the ball, makes some nice plays out of structure and plays with command of the offense. The draft analysts may very well be right that his upside just isn’t enough to wow anyone and I can see that but it’s clear that NFL teams and coaches look at different things than the outside world when it comes to QBs. It wouldn’t be some wild shock if they actually liked Nix.
Brian_H…. My brain understands that a star player skipping voluntary OTAs during contract negotiations is not a big deal, but my Vikings-scarred heart is starting to skip a beat. Are they going to screw this up again like they did with Randy Moss and Percy Harvin? You couldn't ask for a better player, teammate, and ambassador than Justin Jefferson. Bleeping pay the man!
You might need some heart medicine for OTAs, minicamp and training camp. This is why my philosophy about the entire thing is just to keep saying that patience is the only way to approach this. At one point in negotiations Deebo Samuel demanded a trade from the 49ers and eventually it all got worked out. Last year there were rumors that teams were calling the 49ers about Nick Bosa. He signed late in camp. Heck, even the TJ Hockenson thing got pretty weird before he signed. Dalvin Cook’s deal came down right before the season and he barely participated in camp.
Players have to do things this way. Even if the risk is 0.01% of getting hurt in camp (remember Teddy?), they can’t step on the field until it’s resolved. And since we are far away from a deadline that’s going to force these two sides to the table, there isn’t a ton of pressure for either to get it done right away. I’m still confident that JJ will be standing in front of us announcing an extension at some point this summer.
Joel… Any chance of a late round QB pick to match with the first round? Think RG III and Kirk.
Since they already grabbed their late-round guy in Jaren Hall last year (and never expected that he would actually appear in games), I can’t see them spending another pick on a QB. They have too many positions that they need to look at long-term depth and development. Maybe everyone should take a 7th round QB just because you never know and it makes more sense than a long snapper (no disrespect to LS’ers!).
Ron R… Listened to JT Sullivan on PFF and he was definitely not very high on McCarthy
I had a little different interpretation of what JT said. He talked about the same thing that I’ve discussed with McCarthy, which is struggling to think of an example of a first-round quarterback who was used so sparsely by his team. He talked about his lack of touch on the fastball too. But JT went into detail about how he could see the athleticism and arm strength and the NFL things that McCarthy was doing in his drop-backs and the way he was looking at the field. It wasn’t too far from other evaluations that I’ve heard/read.
Kyle S… There are seemingly six top quarterback prospects in this year's draft and at least seven teams that have been widely connected to them. Which of those teams will leave the draft without one of the top quarterbacks?
That is a tough question. You could make a case for the Patriots and Giants desperately needing more on their rosters — and I still think the G-Men are going to try to justify their terrible Daniel Jones decision by giving him one more shot at it. I don’t know how Denver could run out Jared Stidham. I could see the Raiders being OK with Minshew for a year because he won games with the Colts but Raiders and Penix Jr. are such a match made in deep ball heaven that it seems like they’re going to go for it. So I guess I’d rank the most likely teams to not pick a QB out of the list of projected QB wanters as Giants, Raiders, Patriots, Broncos and then Chicago, Washington and Minnesota as absolute locks to pick someone.
Adam R… Every year it feels there is a QB that pundits say will go high that falls til later. Malik Willis, Will Levis (shout out TN), etc. Do you really think 4 QB’s go top 4? If so, is this class really that much better than prior years? Or is the value of the rookie QB contract risen to be that prominent? I’d feel uncomfortable selling the farm to move up for the 4th QB choice.
I looked at this a while back and it’s a very mixed bag of pundit success. In 2020 the consensus board picked out within a few spots approximately where everyone was going to go and the order. Then the next year nobody had Trey Lance all that high and everyone expected the 49ers’ decision to come down to Fields vs. Jones. Of course, the last two drafts with the Willis and Levis debacles really made you question why mock drafters were so high on those guys when absolutely nobody in the NFL was.
Could go either way. My one draft hot take is that McCarthy will be there at No. 11 because I feel like there was an overcorrection with him from most analysts thinking he was a borderline first rounder.
To answer your actual question, yes, I do believe this class is extremely good. When the worst player on most people’s boards threw 45TD, 3 INT and was sacked 6 times, it’s something. That also makes it harder to project because you can see the possibility of being varying opinions. I think the Vikings have one guy who they would trade the farm for and then it gets really interesting. I can definitely see why you wouldn’t want to move a mass of capital for McCarthy if it’s possible that the gap between him and the other two isn’t as large as reported.
Myles S…. 2 final pie charts before Draft Night! Pie chat #1: %'s that Minn either trades up from 11/23 or stays at 11/23 and picks QB. Pie chart #2: %'s of either Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix, Penix Jr. is the Vickings pick
Well, if I only have two options on the pie chart for #1, then I’ll go with 60% chance they trade up and 30% chance they stay at 11/23 and 10% chance of some other option like picking at 11 and then trading up from 23 to take their quarterback.
Pie chart #2, I’ll go with 30% McCarthy, 20% Maye, 20% Nix, 20% Penix Jr., 10% Daniels. As you can tell, I do not know who they are going to select.
Skol Viking 44… Do you think the Vikings enter Draft Day with a specific player in their sights and will do whatever is needed to acquire him (Vontae Mack No Matter What), or do they have a malleable plan focusing on a short list of players and will react based on how the draft board falls?
I would guess that it’s a bunch of if-then decisions. For example, if Washington takes Daniels, they see if New England wants the house for Maye. If Daniels and Maye are taken, they go up to No. 4 or stick at 11 and see if McCarthy makes it there. If McCarthy doesn’t make it there, then they pick Bo Nix at 11 and a cornerback at 23.
They have repeatedly said that there are multiple outcomes that they would be happy with. It sounds like they think that there is a QB is worth giving up everything for and otherwise they believe they can still win with others as long as they build the right team/system. More or less, I mostly buy the Kwesi “multiple QBs” they are in love with….at the right price.
Geoff… Another pie chart question (in keeping with tradition). Let's assume the Vikings do trade up to draft a QB (could be they trade to 3, or 4, or some other spot). What percentages (sorry...okay not really sorry) do you give to the following three options: 1) Vikings make the trade up before draft day; 2) Vikings make the trade up on draft day, but before the team they trade with is on the clock; 3) Vikings make the trade up when the team they trade up with is on the clock.
I’ll say that there is only about a 20% chance the deal is made before draft day, 30% that it’s made before the team is on the clock and 50% that they do it when a team is on the clock. Since it has been this long and every team has given their statement that they are “open for business,” it’s a little harder to believe that anybody is making this deal until the moment it’s time to roll. But it’s hard to say. Robby Kraft could wake up tomorrow and decide he wants all the draft capital and then you’ve got yourself a deal.
Jeff… Barring a "can't pass this up" trade offer, I think Vikes will wait on a deal until draft night. If there are multiple QB's KOC is happy with (not including Williams) we wait until only 1 is left. Then offer the farm for the next pick. Whatever it takes to get that pick. If no one will deal with us, stick & pick best available.
That could certainly be the approach. They may be comfortable with either Maye, McCarthy or Daniels and then see what happens at the top and strike when they absolutely have to make that move rather than doing it beforehand. There’s also the distinct possibility that they have their eyes on one guy at the top and will wait to see who’s there at 11 otherwise. That doesn’t seem all that risky to me because I can’t see more than four QBs taken in the top 10. I’m going to try to ride out this “stick at 11 and someone will be there” take until draft night. We’ll see how I look by next Friday.
@dantaylor26 … what’s the most you would give to up to get Maye, and what do you think the Patriots are actually angling for?
I would give up 11, 23 and next year’s first but I don’t think they can do more than that. I’m certain the Patriots already have an offer on the table from the Vikings, they might just be waiting to see if they get another one that is better. It’s very possible the Patriots do not know who Washington is going to pick. They might have their own if-then chart. If it’s QBX they take him, if it’s QBY they trade out. That kinda thing.
Ryan B… Matthew, I've been fully incepted by all the draft chatter, to the point where I'm dreaming about mock drafts. So this question is more just an attempt to settle down my brain than anything else. Anyway, it feels safe to assume that Maye is who the Vikings really want. If that's true, am I being completely naïve and too trusting of our braintrust in being convinced that a Godfather offer to the Patriots is basically a done deal, and they're waiting to make it official until they know for sure that Maye is still available (i.e. the 'Ders have just taken Daniels on draft night)?
It isn’t safe to assume anything this time of year, man. A lot of folks thought that Will Levis was their guy last year and that turned out to be very much not the case. Still, Maye makes the most sense to me. He is a Matthew Stafford clone and I see so many O’Connell offense type throws on his tape. I wouldn’t trust that a deal with the Patriots is basically done because they have a lot of reasons to draft Maye themselves. Also, are we sure Daniels is No. 2 overall? Maye was that guy for months and months and it still seems very plausible that he’s No. 2 and not Daniels.
I do think your scenario is reasonable. I would imagine the Vikings couldn’t make the all-in offer until they were sure it was their No. 1 target outside of Williams on the board. If we are making a list of most likely things to happen, that’s in the bucket of “yep, could definitely see it.”
Owen… Is KAM covering his butt by asserting that he loves several QBs in this draft? Is he putting out that possibility to the Viking fans that they may not land one of the top four QBs so they are not all up in arms on draft night? The expectations have been pretty high since the trade was made for the 23rd pick for the Vikings to come away with one of the top three QBs that has now turned into the top four QBs. I know you mentioned you would give them an 'A' grade if they take a QB in the first round but it would be a disappointing 'A' to me if they ended up with Penix or Nix.
I do not believe that he’s covering his butt by saying that because I look at these quarterbacks and see the reasons KOC could like them and how they could win here.
I’m absolutely certain there will be a portion of the fans who are up in arms no matter what happens. If they trade up, it will be too much. If they stay at 11 and take McCarthy, they’ll say he’s not a good prospect. If it’s Nix or Penix Jr. at 23 then it’s “settling.” There’s always a section of folks who want to be the guy who can say “I TOLD YOU SO” if it doesn’t work out. I don’t think fan second guessing concerns Kwesi or KOC in the least.
Speaking of which, I wouldn’t be down at all on them landing Penix Jr. or Nix. You know why? Because they both had fantastic college careers and have translatable skills and because I don’t think draft analysts are any good at this. The only reason people would be down on them is that draft analysts have said for months that they aren’t good prospects in comparison to the other guys. A lot of the same folks had Desmond Ridder as a great QB prospect.
Scott M… Let's assume Chicago takes Caleb Williams at 1 and has a good rest of draft and Minnesota gets the QB at the top of their draft board but trades a ton for it. Of course the real test will be if either QB has success but at that point, which team had a more successful rebuild plan Chicago or Minnesota? Minnesota had more wins along the way but took a "risky" path to QB and Chicago did the opposite.
Same number of playoff wins along the way. I understand why the competitive rebuild worked the way it did and I think they pulled it off as well as they possibly could have, save for the 2022 draft. It may have had lasting implications in players trusting KOC and believing in him as a coach but Chicago did a much better job from Day 1 until right now than the Vikings. They are giving up absolutely nothing for their franchise quarterback after a 7 win season, they have another top-10 pick and they have acquired an elite receiver and top-notch edge rusher and yet still have more draft capital and a ton of cap space. There is no doubt they are in a better spot long term.
What the Vikings have to bank on if they trade up is making similar trades to the Sweat deal, KOC and Flores being better at their jobs than Chicago’s brass and Justin Jefferson being an unstoppable force.
Josh S…. I've seen it floated that Maye or Daniels could pull an Eli/Elway and tell the Pats, "Don't pick me. I'm not playing for you," in an attempt to get to the Vikings, where the infrastructure is better. What are your thoughts on whether/if this would play today. Yes, the Pats have a poor roster and a first-year coach. But they’re a franchise these QB prospects grew up watching in SBs with a legend QB. Could they be the next one there? Plus, there are wild swings from year to year in the NFL for many reasons. I have trouble seeing this idea as realistic.
I don’t see any chance that ever happens again. The NFL was so much different even back when Eli pulled that — and I imagine the only reason that the Chargers said yes was because they could get Philip Rivers. There were stories out there that Joe Burrow would not play for the Bengals and some hints about Trevor Lawrence and both guys just turned their franchises around. Josh Allen got sent to “NFL Siberia” and now they’re about to build a billion dollar stadium because of him. There is way too much money and teams are so much more stable than they used to be. The only guy who might have some issues is Shedeur Sanders next year because Deion is a nut job.
Scott M… Lots of teams think they are a QB away or a guy away from jumping into the elite tier of NFL teams. In all honesty, where is Minnesota right now (before the draft) and where would you project them if they get their guys (QB included) after the draft? Define NFL tiers however you want or use comparable teams.
Right now the Vikings are about a 7-9 win team. If they get their quarterback, they are still a 7-9 win team. If they land the right quarterback then by 2025 they will be in the conversation as a Super Bowl team in the same way that Houston will be this year. The problem is that Chicago and Green Bay are on the rise at the same time and I don’t see Detroit fading for a few years. The margin for error in this division is going to be thin for years to come. That’s part of the reason this draft has so much riding on it.
Jordan D… Am I just a jaded Vikings fan for HATING the idea of drafting CB in the 1st round? I’ve heard you talk about being interested in getting a stud #1 corner, and getting talented players is never a bad thing, but I am more concerned about having playable #3 and #4 CBs. To me, CB seems like a weak link system much like offensive line. When Patrick Peterson was on the team, it didn’t matter if his name was Shutdown McNoflyzone, other teams seemed to have no problem just targeting the other CBs and succeeding. Plus CB play seems much more flukey or up and down compared to DT where you can usually only get the rare, high producing players in the 1st round.
Yes, you are jaded by a few bad draft picks. I would agree that secondaries are weak-link systems but you have to remember that when Peterson was playing well the other guys were horrendous. Are Dantzler and Sullivan even playing anywhere? Of course you can’t have one good dude and then complete garbage but the 2017 defense was pretty instructive. Xavier Rhodes’ greatness had a trickle-down effect making everyone else’s job easier. Waynes was just good and Newman was only OK at that point in his career but they never had to take on tough assignments. If CB2 is Byron Murphy Jr. and CB3 is Mekhi Blackmon, that’s pretty good.
They are fluky, yes. I like the DT idea as well in part because of that. But look at the Chiefs’ defense last year and how those corners slowed down every offense they faced. Stopping the pass is as important as passing and you can’t do it without a good secondary. That usually starts with one elite guy.
john OG…. Hey Matthew, love the draft coverage. I agree with Sirles that MCcarthy is not a first rd pick. When it comes to draft analysts, why do they rank players on potential? To me that is vapor ware and highly volatile. Should they rank guys on where they stand now, then add on a potential variance which could alter their rankings. Frankly I prefer players that have shown they can play at a high level over more than one year.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Purple Insider to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.