Friday mailbag: The draft is over

What changed? What's left to do?

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. Whew. The draft is over and we’re officially into the slow portion of the offseason. That gives us plenty of time to talk about stuff so let’s dive in….

@Skol_Doc Does the draft change your perception at all about the Vikings current over/under 8.5 wins

My perception of 8.5 before the draft was that I would take the over because the roster and coaching staff are so strong that it’s hard to see them going under that number even with the quarterback uncertainty. I don’t feel any different now. I think Donovan Jackson is a potential impact player right away because he should be able to eliminate the significant weakness that they had at left guard but it wouldn’t make me project three or four more wins than I would have before.

Brad L… What UDFAs should we keep an eye on? Any interesting back stories?

The couple that stand out to me are Tyler Batty from BYU, Logan Brown from Kansas and Tre Stewart of Jacksonville State.

Batty is a tweener at 270 pounds but he had a lot of production and showed well at the Combine. I always assume the guys that are between 260 and 280 can find something to do in Flores’s defense.

Brown scored super well in his Relative Athletic Score and had amazing numbers at Kansas. He only allowed 6 pressures (zero sacks) the entire year.

Stewart came from a zone system and had a ton of explosive plays. He had 51 carries of more than 10 yards. I know the competition’s not that great but still, that’s really something.

The punter Oscar Chapman is one of those Australian dudes. That’s always cool.

Per Vikings.com — I’m not kidding — Ben Yurosek’s great grandfather invented the baby carrot. (Shout out to anyone who gets a Bob Cobb reference that I want to make here).

Eldon… Do the Vikings add any of the free agent DBs left on the market? Also with the schedule release coming up do you think the Vikings get more prime time games this year or will the NFL go heavy on the Browns because of the Sanders thing?

I think they like the group of defensive backs that they have but it’s always possible that they could add another guy. Maybe that doesn’t happen unless somebody gets hurt but Shaq Griffin, Rasul Douglas and Mike Hilton are still out there. If they don’t sign a certain guy who was “rumored” to be coming to Minnesota, then maybe a lotta folks need to reevaluate the types of garbage that’s being given credence on the internet.

I would guess that the Vikings will get more prime time games this year, yes. When you win 14 and have a first-round QB and the best receiver on earth, you’ve earned them.

Rzuppelli…. So, for those keeping score at home... Trade down in 2022 = Too cute, didn't get enough, GM bad. Trade up in 2024 = Too cute, Gave up too much, GM bad. Stick and pick in 2025 = Too conservative, should have traded back, GM bad. Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

Well, all I can really say about that is that it’s clear some folks didn’t like Kwesi’s hire from the start and they were going to criticize anything and everything he did no matter the approach or results. At the same time, what would football be if we didn’t question the people in charge?

Griffin… Who are the Cornerbacks left on the market that you think the Vikings could target before training camp that could help bolster the secondary?

We’re probably looking at the same type of situation as last year where they are going to run out this group and then see if they need somebody once we get into training camp. There’s always a Stephon Gilmore still hanging around out there into July/August. I would be fine with throwing another body in there because, as Mike Zimmer said, you can never have too many corners but I just don’t see anyone who’s going to be a needle mover. I was in favor of drafting a corner if they could get Jahdae Barron or if they moved down and picked someone like Trey Amos but that’s because those guys had a chance to be long-term difference makers. The depth at the moment looks OK with Murphy Jr., Rodgers, Blackmon, McGlothern and maybe Okudah.

@Aoki5Chuck Shaq griffin and Gilmore graded in the mid 60s last year. Solid but not spectacular. CB has been a big question-is it fair to suggest that while the play could certainly dip, it's well within the realm of possibility it improves as well? Not like they lost prime Revis.

It’s possible that they end up with similar PFF grades but the number of things that Brian Flores can do with them is greater. Isaiah Rodgers, for example, ran a 4.28 40-yard dash coming out of college. He might be able to work in some man coverage stuff that they were lacking last year or play press at the line of scrimmage because he can run.

What Flores has been doing over the last two years is figuring out workarounds for the shortcomings of his team. Because they didn’t have any interior pressure, he blitzed up the middle and ran crazy stunts with his OLBs. Because they had slow CBs last year, he played off coverage all the time and hoped his vets could read route combinations and make plays on the football. In the best case scenario this year, Flores should be able to do everything he wants to do rather than leaning heavily on a few stars and then putting out fires everywhere else.

Never Played Madden…. When Harrison Smith retires in 2 years, what day will his weekly PI podcast appearance be and what will you call it (trying to speak it into existence but also not replace TMLG)

Harrison doesn’t even realize how incredible he would be at podcasting. He has an open invite for life to co-host. I will say, I’ve never seen an athlete so good at podcasting as Jeremiah Sirles. The problem most ex-athletes have is that they don’t really want to pay attention to the league at the level it takes to be good at talking about it but he’s locked the heck in at all times. I’m seriously blessed to have him on the show.

Jake J… You and Trapasso were recently discussing traditional scouting and analytics. Flores came up as a scout so I’m assuming he relies a lot on the film to evaluate players. Have you ever talked to Flores about analytics and if it’s a large part of his evaluation process? Thanks for all of your work with the draft coverage!

I haven’t asked him specifically about analytics but the thing about the NFL now is that everyone has to understand how to use data as part of their daily life in football. What people don’t realize (I wrote a book about this!) is that defensive coordinators are using PFF numbers literally every day. Every team in the league, every coach in the league is looking at offensive tendencies, formations, performance in certain coverages etc. So I’m sure when it comes to the scouting process, they are cross checking when a guy looks like he’s a sure tackler whether that’s actually true by the numbers. And if they’re not doing that, they’re falling behind.

I heard Sam Monson talking about how the draft has become so much less insane with team decisions and that’s probably because all these teams grew up over the last decade and started using consensus boards, analytical draft charts, current and historical data and suddenly they’re not trading up 20 spots in the first to take a running back or something wacky. It’s a fascinating world. (Buy my book to find out more!)

@ProgressiveSal Should the Vikings consider a post June 1st trade for Ramsey or any other splash addition before the season?

Ramsey was still good last year but that contract is pretty bonkers. I’m not sure how they would make that work. Not to mention that he’s 31 and corners are pretty much like running backs with their age curve. (Yes, I know it worked for Gilmore last year). They have already done so much this offseason that I’m not sure there’s anything left to do. If any more additions are made, it’s most likely to be in the regular season at the trade deadline.

I’m kind of chuckling a bit here. I can’t remember a team doing more things in one offseason than the Vikings have this year and you guys are like… GIVE US MORE MOVES!!!! Remember when an entire offseason was Dalvin Tomlinson and like Bashaud Breeland and Chris Herndon?

@Stain_12_ The Vikings seem to still be talked about like they’re well below the conference leaders (Eagles, Lions, etc) in terms of rosters. But when we look at it, there doesn’t seem to be any real weak spots. Is it just a “prove it” situation or are we still not there this year?

There are definitely levels to the roster strength thing. The Lions won 15 while losing two-thirds of their defense to injury and the Eagles are the champs. Those two deserve the benefit of the doubt even if the Vikings did enough to put themselves in that same conversation. Usually roster strength is just as much about the weaknesses as the strengths and the Vikings did a tremendous job of shoring up the weaknesses. The only thing about proving it is that there’s a lot of questions that have to be answered to say they’re going to be a top-five talent team. Certainly health. How quickly Donovan Jackson comes along and the O-line gels. Whether the veteran interior guys have the same juice as the past. All the new faces in the secondary. No doubt, they’re good on paper, gotta make it happen first to get that type of respect.

@MIvikesfan have you heard anything about where Bo Richter, Gabe Murphy, LDR, Taki Taimani and Jalen Redmond are as far as their development entering year2? do you anticipate all 5 of these guys making the active roster?

I would expect them all to make the roster but it’s also May 1 and we’re a long way away from that. Their development is going to show itself in camp. The Vikings are really banking on these guys to make progress because they let a lot of the role player veterans go like Jerry Tillery, Jonathan Bullard and Patrick Jones.

@Skol_Doc Would you like to see the Vikings on hard knocks? Are they one of the more compelling teams for the show this year?

It would be interesting to see some behind-the-scenes looks at how KOC is coaching JJ McCarthy. They also have a lot of veteran players and coaches who have stories to tell that maybe we’ve never seen presented in a certain light before. But I’m not sure they have the drama or tension to make for compelling TV. Last year there was very little national interest in the 14-win Vikings because they were just too undramatic. The other thing is that Hard Knocks just isn’t what it once was in terms of the grittiness of the show. I watched the old Cincinnati one with Zimmer in it and that thing went hard. It’s been smoothed out over time and just doesn’t pack much punch anymore.

Speedi…. Somehow, over the last 4 years the Vikings have built a top10 (maybe 5) roster with minimal draft help through being great at free agency, practice squad poaching, undrafted free agents, and trades using up the supposedly precious draft capital. So why is the media so hung up on Draft Grades when the end goal is roster construction? Where are the grades for that? Has any other 13-14 win team ever improved their roster as much as the Vikings have this year?

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a 13 or 14 win team do so much in the offseason. Usually if you’re there, that means that you already have the pieces in place. The Vikings getting there with maybe 70% of a complete roster was something (shout out to the AFC South!). It’s been the most impressive offseason I can remember since I’ve been covering the team.

The media is into draft grades because there’s nothing else to do after the draft. It’s that one last squeeze at the draft fruit to get every ounce of content juice out of the thing. Everybody likes to look at how all the draft analysts — you know, those guys who missed on Shedeur Sanders by four rounds — broke down their draft in order to have one more discussion about it and then we all move on. Nobody actually gives a darn about draft grades. They have been studied and proven to not have any predictive value over and over. My favorite ever was the horrible grades for the Seahawks picking Russell Wilson. It’s just sheer entertainment purposes only.

My theory is that the fan obsession with the draft has reached the point where some people enjoy it more than the season. For those people the Vikings having five picks and getting a guard in the first round is probably the worst possible outcome.

Clark S… Concerned about Center position. Kelly has played in every game 3 out of 9 seasons. Typically misses 2-4 games a season. Jurgens is not a guy that makes me feel good. Console me Coller.

If you’d like me to spin the numbers a little nicer, he’s played at least 850 snaps every year since 2019 except last season. It’s certainly a concern, no way around that. The only thing I can say about Jurgens is that he was active over Dan Feeney last year, which is a sign of what they have seen in practice from him. I thought he was good in training camp last year.

The reality of offensive lines is that you’re always going to have injuries. O-lines basically never have the same five guys play the full season together. That’s why they got Justin Skule and drafted some development guys like Rouse and Jurgens etc. And Brandel should make for high quality depth as well if Jackson wins the job.

Matt D… Are there any positions outside of cornerback that you can see them signing before camp? I’d bring Shaq Griffin back to the CB room, but not sure what else they would do at this point.

It’s always possible but I’m not sure where that would be outside of running back. The fact that they didn’t address that in the draft makes me wonder if one more veteran could be on the way to compete with Ty Chandler.

Could they add one more quarterback to the competition? Maybe another safety since they only have four (and Bubba Bolden)? There really isn’t much construction left to do here. I wish that was the same story for the roads in Minnesota.

Jason…. I am feeling pretty good about where the team is at right now. What is your outlandish prediction of what will ruin that because the Vikings always find a way?

That’s dark, Jason. Deserved based on history but dark. I think we have a pretty good sense of what could knock this team down. Health is always a factor in the NFL but it becomes a more prominent question when you have a lot of guys coming off serious injuries. The other thing is JJ McCarthy struggling. They have done everything possible to stack up around him with receivers, tight ends, running backs, and even coaches in order to give him the best chance to succeed but you never know what’s going to happen until the guy is actually out there playing football. If you want a super random thing because the Vikings’ past has endless random stuff that’s gone wrong, I’ll go with the most obvious answer: Four missed game-winning field goals.

Timothy G… Does the selection of Tai Felton indicate a shift towards getting the ball out to the perimeter quickly on screens and such?

They aren’t going to change their offensive philosophy to quick screens and slants but Felton may give them the option to have that in their bag. This was not a very good yards after catch team and that makes sense since Jefferson, Addison and Nailor are intermediate and deep threats more than quick YAC guys. Felton is really special with the football in his hands and I suspect they are going to try to use that right away in the offense.