Friday mailbag: The draft capital debate

The Vikings have their QB but fans have lots of opinions on the trade up from 23

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everybody. The offseason is over, now the spring season begins with rookie camp and OTAs etc. so we’ll have a lot more to talk about soon. Let’s dive right into the questions lingering on people’s minds about the draft…

Damon… What makes the Vikings confident in JJ’s abilities? In terms of throws he’s inexperienced. Also, why haven’t people talked about the Vikings running game more? I don’t think it’s as safe as people believe

When people talk about McCarthy “winning everywhere he’s been,” we have to remember where he’s been. He didn’t go to some random high school or pretty good college. He was a 5-star recruit who started getting attention from major programs when he was like 13 years old and then crushed it at the top high school in the country and then went to the top college football program. That’s what kind of pedigree we’re talking about here. He’s a really, really good athlete, he’s pretty big at 6-foot-3, he’s really well trained at the position and has a mindset to make plays with the ball in his hand. I’d say that probably gives them some confidence.

I’m sure KOC sees a guy who can be very good with refinement and reps. In order to pick him they had to be most confident in the person they were getting. He has Teddy Bridgewater vibes as a leader and competitor.

We haven’t talked about the running game because the QB decision has been everything. It’s still a concern. Jones wasn’t healthy for the full season last year and the interior of the O-line has questions. Still, it should be upgraded quite a bit from last year.

Brian_H… Could the C/G situation combined with the potential layout of the schedule be a key to determining when Mr. McCarthy enters the starting lineup? For example, if the first month is heavy on Kenny Clark-type players, could KOC decide there's no point in McCarthy starting his career with defenders in his lap?

I’m not sure how much the interior O-line is going to impact if he plays unless it’s a total disaster. McCarthy’s pocket movement and scrambling makes you think he could handle interior pressure alright. One of the reasons to pick this particular QB is so we don’t have to obsess over every missed block by the guards. There also aren’t too many weeks in the NFL where the other team doesn’t have a Kenny Clark type.

I think the decision is going to rest on whether McCarthy is ready to handle the entire playbook and the zillion details that go along with it.

Vikingman62… How do we feel about our offensive line right now? Do you feel the Vikings will need to go to free agency to get one more lineman to shore things up? Darnold won’t be successful if he’s running for his life and the kid won’t developed properly if the line is porous

I would ask you guys, “who hurt you?” when it comes to the offensive line but I know the answer. You’ve spent the last six years watching Cousins sit in the pocket while any rusher who got free blow up the play or murder him as he was making a throw. Those 2018/2019/2020 lines had some serious issues but it’s quite a bit better than it was then. I’m not saying the offensive line is perfect — the interior is a concern — but last year with basically this same group there were 30 QBs who were pressured at a higher rate than Cousins.

McCarthy is going to be pressured. There were 30 QBs between 30% and 40% pressure rate last season. There’s basically no team that has five great linemen that just shuts everyone down. If you wait to play a QB until you have the ‘92 Cowboys line, he will never hit the field.

Pickle Enjoyer… Considering that JJ has issues that can only be fixed by drilling (e.g. throwing to his left, layering, deep ball), can we do away with the idea that he could possibly beat Darnold out of camp? Working on things that require a lot of reps, learning the offense, and doing installs every week seems a bit much.

No question those things are going to take a lot of work but I do think it’s possible that he plays right away. When it comes to mastering technique throwing the football, I don’t believe that would keep him off the field. What would keep him from being ready to start Week 1 is him not being fully prepared to run the entire offense with complete command. If he can’t get them in and out of the huddle, adjust protection, make the right reads and throw the ball to the right places, he won’t play. If he can do with that, they would be OK with line drive throws that get picked off or deep passes that flutter because he doesn’t have the right arc (unless those things are REALLY bad).

Matt L… First want to preface that I am extremely excited that Vikes came away with 2 blue chip players in 1st round, but I do keep coming back to thought that this FO team building approach concerns me a bit (even though every time I listen to Kwesi in a presser he sells me again). I believe that one of keys to having sustained success and not getting into cap trouble is having a number of starters/key depth pieces on rookie deals. Spielman’s roster started falling apart once they stopped hitting on day 2/3 picks and had to try covering up deficiencies in FA and then not being able to move on from guys like barr/rudolph. Back to now, just saw a stat that they have least amount of day 2 picks over 2023-2025. So I know they have $100 million in cap space for 2025, but i think thats overblown a bit because darrisaw and JJ going to cut that number a lot and that figure is only accounting for 31 players right now. So with limited draft capital you are going to burn that flexibility pretty quickly having to fill roster with free agents which doesnt seem too sustainable. Thoughts on my long winded stream of consciousness?

Let’s think about the Zimmer/Spielman era. Zimmer arrives in 2014 and picks a quarterback. They rebuild the thing around young talent and by 2015 they are in a “winning window.” They have a lot of cheap stars through 2017 and then have to sign Diggs/Hunter/Kendricks etc. in 2018 to go along with Cousins. That’s when the cap issues really start. Still, they remain a legit competing team through 2020. How long was that? Six years from the time they picked the Bridgewater?

The rookie QB contract is going to counterbalance the expensive players. Same would go for Turner if he turns out to be a star. That’s about $75 million in players for $10 million on the cap if they are both good.

If they were in a different spot as a roster overall and were lacking stars and had holes all over the place, I’d really wonder about what they were doing. But I can only really say that defensive tackle, corner and guard are places they don’t have quality players who will be here for years.

Ideally you’d love to have all the draft capital in the world and cap space but in this case they are making up the lack of draft capital with top-end talents and the idea that Flores can develop guys on defense and they can fill in the spare parts.

PurpleHaze75… I'm in the minority it seems when it comes to McCarthy, I just did not see the so-called it factor for him during his time at Mich. I did not watch all of his games but I did see all the supposed big games e.g. against OSU, PSU, and the college playoffs these past 2yrs among others and just did not see it. He seems to force/lead his receivers into crowds and would underthrow his deep ball. And there's been this tendency of him locking onto 1 wr and even if he decides to not throw it he just then takes off (which is not necessarily a bad thing in my opinion) He came out of literally nowhere in the draft process and just shot up the boards. It just feels like he's been overhyped and was foisted upon us. On top of all this, is why did we trade up 1 spot for him when the Jets weren't going to take him and why was the price so high? This is 3yrs in a row now I have questioned Kwesi's draft acumen. Yr 1 was awful, yr 2 he had to be talked into drafting JA in the 1st instead of trading back, then the trade up for JJ this year and though I am a big fan of Turner at 17 why not trade in front of SEA to take Murphy? We've already spent money at pass rusher in FA but have done little for our DL. Is anyone else convinced that Tillery is a game changer? With all this said I hope I am terribly wrong. I haven't been excited for a qb draft pick since Culpepper. He was fun to watch when he was healthy. Sorry for the lengthy rant. SKOL!

One thing that I’ve learned over the years is that it doesn’t matter what I think of draft prospects right after they are picked. Look at how wildly inaccurate draft grades are and the people who do them spend months and months on this. So once the guys are picked, I throw out what I thought before and we go forward.

I liked Penix Jr. better but they are both top 10 picks and they have an even chance to work out, historically speaking. He did not come from “out of nowhere” to NFL teams. KOC did an insane amount of work studying the guy. And they had to trade up with the Jets to make sure they got him because clearly he was ahead of Nix on their board and they didn’t want the Broncos to jump them.

It’s odd that you can’t give Adofo-Mensah credit even when he makes a good pick with Addison. He made the pick, did he not? I assume discussions like that happen every draft day.

I really, really like Turner as a prospect. I would have given up a ton for a Von Miller type too. Maybe I’ll be wrong and it won’t work out. Who knows. But I’m all for chasing superstars.

My point is that everyone has their draft takes, sometimes we’re right, sometimes we’re wrong. That’s what makes it fun and interesting. But I don’t think we can look at this process and say WHAT WERE THEY THINKING???? It seems like the biggest criticisms here are based on overconfidence in what you think JJ will become or believe in draft charts as gospel. Nobody knows that until the guys play.

Joel… Who wins the Mullens vs. Hall 3rd string battle?

I would really like Mullens to be in that room. I know watching him play was messy but this dude knows the offense inside and out. He’s a hard working guy who is going to do everything he can to help Darnold and McCarthy succeed.

Rob Pal… Much criticism has been doled out to Kwesi for trading later round picks to move up this year but is it possible that he has hit on a very effective formula that says go get your guys at premium picks and then use UDFA to your advantage to make up for any draft capital you lose in the process? Here are the original draft slots we had going into Thursday: 11, 23, 108, 129, 157, 167, 177, 230, 232. Using Arif's consensus board we ended up with 9, 23, 100, 111, 187, 189, 283 & 294. For the first 4 rounds we end up better off than our slots even though we traded up for the QB of the future and best pass rusher on the board. Rounds 5 - 7 are a crapshoot at best and we ended up with 4 players on the consensus board vs 5 original slots. I had also heard that the later part of this year's draft was relatively weak. So all in a very impressed with Kwesi's work

Yes, the UDFA market seems to be a bit of a hack for them. Getting Gabriel Murphy surprised me based on his numbers. That’s an interesting point about the consensus board.

There’s no question that it’s harder to develop young players without draft picks. This is a team that landed Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs with picks in the third, fourth and fifth round. But that’s not the only way to get depth players or guys to develop. If they had a wasteland roster then I’d be pretty concerned but in this case they are mostly full on starters and they need only a few players to develop or they can grab second-wave signings in free agency next year when they have more space to work with.

Kyle Richman… What do you make of how Kwesi is valuing picks? While I approve of the vision and a good amount of the decisions, so far in three drafts it seems like his value on picks is not very good. Trade downs have gotten underwhelming hauls and trade ups seem to have been very costly. This seems like a long term concern if they’re giving away picks for low return but also not getting enough in return when moving down

It’s not an exact science and everything has layers and layers of context. A good amount of the picks that were sent out were to ultimately land TJ Hockenson, JJ McCarthy and Dallas Turner. Some foundational pieces there. Those are the hardest things to find in the NFL.

I see it as less of a concern when they already have most of the long term guys here. If we look at the guys we can guarantee are here at least the next two seasons you get: McCarthy, Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, Darrisaw, O’Neill, Greenard, Phillips, Turner, Van Ginkel, Cashman, Pace Jr., Metellus, Blackmon and possibly Bynum and Murphy Jr. depending on contracts. That’s a lot of starters.

Maybe this is unfair but it feels like when they traded down, everyone said it was a mistake because they should have gotten more in return or taken the prospect who worked out and then when they traded up, everyone said they gave up too much. I’ve always been on the side of greatness determining winning so I’d rather they move the middling picks to reach for excellence. I know it doesn’t always work.

So I’m not sure how it’s going to work out. If they can find talent in other places like the UDFA and free agent market to fill in spots 15-30 on the roster then it’s going to work out really well. If they can’t, then we might say that giving away the picks came back to haunt them.

Bradley P…I heard a Wiseman say that it’s important for the owner, general manager, coach, and quarterback to be on the same page. Do you feel the Vikings are in sync? In hindsight, do you feel the Vikings are happy with the decision to trade for the 23rd pick or do you feel they would’ve liked to have kept both seconds and take their chances during the draft?

Yes, I do think they are in sync. The plan that they put together from the start was exactly what they executed. There were some shaky moments along the way and some mistakes but the big picture was to compete with Kirk for 2022 and then get the cap right and pick the QB of the future. They did that. Part 1 Mission Accomplished. As I said to KAM on the podcast, the hard part starts now.

If they knew that they were going to get McCarthy at 10 and not have to spend any more capital then they very well might have just kept the two second-rounders. At the same time, I don’t know how often you get a chance to take a guy who has the ceiling of an elite pass rusher anywhere except the first round. NFL.com’s draft comp for Turner is Brian Burns. Like, the second highest paid dude at the position in the league.

Chris… How does KOC balance having to get Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy up to speed on an offense that is new to both quarterbacks?

That’s a good question. In fact, I might use that question at a press conference in the near future. Darnold and McCarthy will be learning it at the same time, so they are going to get a lot of the same teaching points. When it comes to the extra technique stuff, that’s going to be McCarthy spending lots of hours after practice repping that stuff over and over.

JimD… I don't get this idea that trades need to be dead-even value chart wise. What is the incentive for a team who is reluctant to move down to only get equal value back? How about when a bidding war starts, would the trade down team just pick out of a hat to see which equal value offer they choose? I think that paying a premium to get their guys was a good move by the Vikings. My concern with Kwesi is not his trading up, but that his trade downs don't seem to get enough value sent back. It seems like he doesn't make people pay the premium he is willing to pay to go up. Taking chart value on trade downs and his willingness to pay a premium on trade ups, leaves the impression that Kwesi is willing to take the loss in value in most of his trades.

How many times has he traded down? Is it only 2022? That one was funny because some charts liked it, some charts hated it. Who’s charts do we trust in this world? It’s the same with draft analysis and scouting reports. We have everybody from Dane Brugler to random former practice squad QBs doing analysis and ranking QBs. My head was spinning by the end of this draft season.

I think this year’s case was unique as far as taking a loss on the draft chart. How many times are there six quarterbacks taken and suddenly you have a consensus top-10 talent at No. 17 at the second most valuable position (by cap hit) in the league? It’s a rare situation. I’m not sure we’ll see anything like it in 10 more drafts.

That’s why I say that the context matters so much. If we’re talking about doing 1,000 drafts, I’d say moving up from 23 to 17 and giving up that much probably fails more than it succeeds but the odds have to be different when six QBs and two “generational” receivers go in the top 10.

Ben Boo….Coller I know we’re not allowed to comp McCarthy to anyone but mid QBs from 1947 but, if you could please indulge me, consider the Joe Burrow comp: a mobile pocket passer that’s lauded for toughness, decision-making and playmaking ability and wills his team to win despite a weaker arm. I’m not saying JJ will be Burrow, but I’m more curios to find examples of pocket QBs that are driving their team’s success in the modern era instead of just benefiting from it. Burrow is the only one at the top of the league who doesn’t have a cannon, and also isn’t a major rush threat, and it helps me imagine that JJ *could* be more than an Alex Smith or whoever was like that from the 60s.

I looked it up, the most mid QB in 1947 was Clyde LeForce. He played for Detroit, threw for 1,300 yards, 13 touchdowns 20 INTs and averaged 14.7 yards per completion. What a league it was back then.

I see where you are going with the Burrow thing with the playmaking and character. There are definitely some differences. Burrow is one of the most masterfully precise and accurate QBs I’ve ever seen. His touch on the football is brilliant. McCarthy is a pitching machine set to “SUPER FAST.” And I think McCarthy is more of an impact player in the scramble game.

I feel bad for Alex Smith. He has to be the “YOUR QB PROSPECT IS JUST A GUY” go-to. He went 80-36-1 from 2011 to 2020 and was within a hair of going to the Super Bowl. If you pick a QB who does that, man, you’ve crushed the pick.

That said, I still don’t see it with him either. Smith was a technician at getting the ball to the right place and was the least risk-taking QB you’ll ever see. McCarthy wants to be a playmaker. He’s going to try to Matt Stafford things and have them blow up sometimes.

Also, is the 1947 and 1960s thing a joke that I don’t get? Did someone make old comps or are you picking on me for being old by calling him Matt Hasselbeck?

David H…The draft cost to get Dallas Turner seems quite high. Do you think Kwesi is an inexperienced negotiator or was willing to make his sacrifice knowing that our cap space situation will be much better next year relying more on free agents and less on draft?

It’s the second one.

Scott M…What's your way too early prediction for the NFC North after draft weekend where both the Vikings and Bears took a step forward in their rebuild plans? What's your favorite crazy sports stat? Mine is that Tony Gwynn faced Maddox, Glavine, Smoltz and Pedro Martinez over 330 times ND only struck out 3 times!

The Lions and Packers both win 11 games, the Vikings and Bears fight it out for third place with somewhere between 8-10 wins and we all talk about what a beast this division is going to be for a long time.

My favorite random crazy sports stat is Jerry Rice having a 5,400-yard lead on the next best receiver of all time. That’s five really good seasons worth. Basically Justin Jefferson’s whole career so far worth of yards ahead of the next best guy.

James….Vikings fans are die hard because we don't tank and have had only 2 horrible seasons in 60 years! Trading up for 23 was worth the eventual cost because we had flexibility and ruled the draft landscape!

The Colts tanked for Peyton Manning, are their fans die hard?

Kyle S…Now that we know where the six first-round quarterbacks ended up, which do you think are most likely to succeed and which do you think have the toughest path to success?

By far Caleb Williams is the most likely to succeed. Historically speaking, the No. 1 pick QB has a massive advantage in probability over everyone else. That doesn’t mean he can’t bust, it’s just the odds. The toughest path is so easily Drake Maye but we have also seen other teams quickly rebound from the dreaded tanking that it might end up being overblown. If things in Atlanta go south and their coaching staff gets fired in two years, then Penix Jr. is in a no-win situation. I might pick Bo Nix in Denver. He’s a guy that needs a really good supporting cast and he doesn’t have it. He might just have a washed head coach who made all his fame and fortune off Drew Brees.

Jason…Does the reality of how the draft played out really mean the only question for long term judging is the competition between Nix and McCarthy since that is the only person they passed on?

Yeah, in a way. You could always do the “what if Dobbs didn’t win those random games” thing if you like. But there’s no real “what coulda been” outside of Penix Jr. when it comes to winning one or two too many games because they didn’t have to do the big trade up for McCarthy and Patriots and Commanders completely tanked and were going to pick in the top three QBs no matter what. If Nix becomes the next Elway and McCarthy the next [redacted 2011 draft pick QB], then we’ll go… whoops!

Tim…Purely hypothetical, if both were available, do the Vikings take Penix or McCarthy? What’s the over under number on the success of this quarterback class? It was great to see Manny Hill on YouTube, he hasn’t lost a beat.