Friday Mailbag: The defense's biggest challenge

As camp approaches, fans are interested in how the defense will shake out and expectations for the coach and GM

---

By Matthew Coller

Hey everyone, believe it or not we’re only one more Friday away from things kicking off out in Eagan. So with camp upon us, naturally we have some very good questions. Let’s dive right in…

@JeffHurdaCow What kind of a split do you see in the backfield this season?

The tough thing about answering that question is guessing what kind of health we’ll see from Aaron Jones this year. If Jones is healthy, I would expect that it’s a 70-30 type split. Chandler proved himself as a dynamic player with the ball to the point where they can use him a lot with the hopes of explosive plays

@kelly_jordan What is the biggest challenge for Brian Flores coming into this season?

We might not have talked about enough last year how good the Vikings were at stopping the run. They only averaged 3.8 yards per attempt, which was seventh best in the league and they only gave up 1,678 total rushing yards (eighth best). That’s going to be hard to repeat because Danielle Hunter and Jordan Hicks were really excellent run defenders. I also think overall it’s a tougher challenge in 2024 and than 2023 because of the opposing quarterback schedule and the fact that teams saw what he was doing defensively last year and have a lot of tape to prepare for it. I don’t doubt his ability to adapt but novelties wear off fast in the NFL Because they are so good at exposing weaknesses. The other thing is evaluating which players who aren’t big names on the roster right now might have a chance to become something. He’s good at that, it’s just never easy for anyone to see into the future.

@dreski83 Defenses go all-out containing Justin Jefferson and pay no mind to QB, RB, TE, etc... would fans and media give a pass to Jetts for publicly complaining???

What I’ve always found interesting about Jefferson is that he has such an earnest personality that he could show his frustration without coming across like he wanted more catches because he’s about his own personal numbers. We have learned about him through the years that he’s obsessed with winning and he always believes that their best chance to win is throwing him the ball. And nobody would ever disagree with that. I remember in 2021 saying that if he ended any game with less than 10 targets that someone needed to be arrested. What he has going for him is that O’Connell feels the same way. He has designed this entire thing to get Jefferson open so it’s hard to see too many times where he’s not getting targets.

But to directly answer your question: Yes, he would get a pass for complaining because there’s no world where Jefferson getting the ball less than his first four years is good in any way. Being right matters in the equation.

@BenjaBeee What would be considered a failure of a season? The bar seems pretty low with a transitional QB or rookie QB but could anything happen to raise huge alarms

Just because I agree with their direction and plan for this season doesn’t mean I’m setting the bar at the floor. They still have to win. I’m not going to shrug my shoulders if they spent all that money on guys like Greenard and Van Ginkel and chose to trust certain interior offensive linemen and depth receivers and corners and then go out and win five games.

A failure season would be if they were bad but still didn’t feel confident putting McCarthy out there. Similarly, I’m not sure we could see it as a success if they started out slow and then went to McCarthy and he didn’t look very good at all. There’s other scenarios that would be pretty rough like if the team didn’t seem to be buying into the HC in the same way as they hung with him throughout tough times last year.

@jem2763 Anyone concerned about signing McCarthy and Turner?

Not yet. If they don’t have contracts done by Day 1 of training camp with the full roster there, then yes, I’ll wonder what the heck is going on.

@Allanburton34 JJ to JJ early predictions

The prediction right now might be that we don’t see many JJ to JJ throws in 2024. That can change quickly as the season goes on — and if you were putting odds on it you would probably predict that McCarthy gets in midway through the season and has hits ups and downs getting the ball to Jefferson. It’s going to take time before he’s completely ready to go but one thing that Jefferson will like is that McCarthy can absolutely fire the ball into tight windows over the middle of the field. One thing he might not like is the touch and anticipation that Cousins had on deep throws is unlikely to be repeated in Year 1.

@jasonskog Matt, do you have an early feel for who could be a contender for Mr. Mankato at training camp? I know camp hasn’t started but what else can we do while we wait?

We never really know until we get there. If we are putting odds on it, having a rookie kicker certainly draws a lot of Mr. Mankato attention. I would also put Gabriel Murphy in the mix as the highly paid UDFA and the other backup edge rushers as guys who have the opportunity to get a lot of preseason reps and make plays. There’s a number of receivers who will get their chances like a Jeshaun Jones, Thayer Thomas (he still qualifies) and Malik Knowles. The skill position guys are always going to have better odds.

@Jonas_Mac808 Has our new kicker missed yet?

I don’t know if anybody tracked kicks at OTAs and minicamp. I didn’t have a very good angle except on the last day where he was absolutely bombing them. Training camp and preseason games are where he will be judged the most harshly. Of course, if we’re being honest, it’s all small samples. They drafted him. He’s going to play.

@jondre97 Dream scenario for DT position this vikings season

That Jerry Tillery becomes a significant player for them. He’s not that old, he showed signs of big improvement last year from what he provided the Chargers as a first-round pick and he has some juice as a pass rusher. That’s what they are missing on the interior and have been missing for some time now. Maybe if we also see some serious upside from one of the late-rounders Roy and Rodriguez.

@IvanCarter9 Division has LOADED on offensive talent. WRs especially. How do Vikings possibly hang after letting our best pass rusher go?

Well, for starters, they signed two pass rushers who combined for over 18.5 sacks last year and drafted another one so their overall production from that position could end up being better. It comes down to putting together a more complete offense with Aaron Jones and having the defense take another step forward. They don’t look on paper like a top 10 defense but Flores had them in that ballpark with less overall talent last year. And then some stuff has to break their way. They can’t fumble 400 times in the first five weeks, for example. If the quarterback play is more good than bad, defense is well above average and they can run the football, they are a fringe playoff team.

@jeff_janda When do you think McCarthy's 1st start is? Over/under 7.5 wins? Are the Vikings going to be better than the overrated Bears?

I’ve had my eye on Week 7 when they come out of the bye week. I’d go with slightly over 7.5 wins. I’m not sure if they are going to be better than the Bears. However, the Bears had mostly horrendous QB play last year and still won as many games as the Vikings. They added one of the best receivers in the league on top of that. If Caleb Williams is even decent as a rookie then they can compete.

@kelly_jordan Give us an update on special teams, it might be mundane in July but significant once we get deep in the season. What do you know?

It looks like Will Reichard has a ton of potential and could give them the consistent kicking they have been missing but we’re a long way from being sure about that. The punting battle is going to be real throughout camp. I’m not sure Ryan Wright gets a chance to bounce back from struggling last year. Kene Nwangwu could end up being a really valuable asset if the kick return does truly come back to where it used to be. They have very good veteran special teamers to lead the group and a lot of UDFAs that could make noise there in preseason.

@pdbiss My main reaction to Justin Jefferson's appearance in Receiver is that he is generally a kind of boring family guy. His on the field "Jets" persona is flashy, but this is even more of a great character guy than I thought, maybe to the detriment of the producers' hopes.

Jefferson has always come across as a guy who is all about football. Nope, he’s not a sky diver or a novelist off the field and he doesn’t make political statements or wax poetic at the podium about life and philosophy. He’s obsessed with greatness at his craft and that seems to be his entire driving force. Makes him a very easy superstar to work with, even if he isn’t going to create award-winning features on his off-field life.