Friday Mailbag: The biggest game (so far)

Vikings fans have questions about how they will approach the Lions

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Dan… Please tell me about the flaws of the competition in the NFC. All of them have impressive strengths, but as a hopeful Vikings fan, I I'd like to hear what brings the rest of the teams back down to earth and makes their fans nervous. What are the weakest areas of Detroit's decimated defense? Ability to generate pressure?

Detroit can’t cover anybody lately. They went from a good passing defense to giving up 362, 323 and 400 yards passing in the last three weeks. It looks like they are going to get Alex Anzalone back, which helps them, but opposing teams have attacked their linebackers in coverage with a lot of success lately. The 49ers completed 7-for-7 with 121 yards vs. two of their LBs in coverage. Plus, they’ve been asking a ton of Brian Branch in coverage. He has a 53.6 PFF grade in coverage since Week 14 with 16-of-21 passing for 150 yards into his coverage. He’s a great player but there may be some limitations if he’s asked to play man coverage, which he has on 45% of his snaps since Week 14 and graded a 31.3 in coverage when he did. Whew, PFF’s data is great, aye?

As far as the other potential matchups in the NFC, Tampa Bay is top-10 in turnover percentage and 17th in defense. The Rams are 20th in scoring and 23rd on third down, so their offense isn’t as scary as the Vikings made them look in Week 8.

Philly does not have a prolific passing game — they only rank 15th in passing EPA and Jalen Hurts’s concussion has to be a serious worry for them. Washington is 19th in points against and they are short on secondary weapons. And the Packers, well, you just saw the Packers’ weaknesses vs. the Vikings.

Adam…. Mailbag question - are the Vikings just getting random luck with penalties in their favor this season or are the Vikes earning them with their style of play forcing the opposition to commit more penalties i.e they need to hold Jefferson, Greenard, Gink etc to try and contain them?

So, they are No. 1 in the NFL in terms of net yards gained by penalties, which is definitely a Justin Jefferson stat because he gets grabbed constantly. You have to sprinkle some luck in there because penalties can depend on which reffing crews you draw and whether you’re playing sloppy opponents etc. But they were also No. 1 in net penalty yards in 2022. To do it twice in three years means it’s probably not super random. I’m thinking that having so many veteran players has to play into it. Guys like Stephon Gilmore or Brian O’Neill know how not to get called for interference or holding. Another part of it this year might be the fact that they’ve been ahead so often. It’s easier to not try to make desperation mistakes when you’re leading.

Eldon…. It's going to be a tough game and I want to know your thoughts on how emotional would winning the division and 1 seed in Detroit be for the Vikings and would it break the hearts of lions fans?

This team has done an incredible job of staying focused week to week and never getting ahead of themselves but I think a win in Detroit to take the conference would allow them to actually appreciate what they have been able to accomplish this year. We have seen shades of it over the last couple of weeks. Darnold on the sideline against the Falcons or the way they picked him up in the locker room after shredding the Packers. They are feeling it. They know that nobody expected them to be this good and what Darnold has gone through to be here and it seems that everyone is using those things as galvanizing factors that they are leaning into. It’s been really something to watch come together.

Lorne S… Officially a five-star mess heading into Sunday night—but what a great season with plenty left in the tank.

One thing that adds to the magic of a Vikings season like this is the fans. This isn’t a team that has fans who just dropped in and decided to root on the Vikings. All of you folks grew up with them or followed them since the 70s or became fans because of Moss and have stuck through a lot of mediocre years with hopes that a season like this. Well, here it is. Enjoy the moment.

Bradley P…. Do you believe the “Vikings want to keep Sam” rumors? As tight-lipped as they were about Cousins, I have a hard time believing they’re leaking now

I guarantee you that the Vikings aren’t telling anyone what they are doing. They were desperately flailing for info with the Cousins situation and never had it until the moment he signed with the Falcons so I expect it to be exactly the same here. However, we can all use our noggins when it comes to this one, right? Darnold has played as good as any QB in the NFL this year outside of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Leading teams to 14-win seasons is not something that random quarterbacks do. He’s been everything that you associate with a franchise QB. They are not going to just let him go sign with the Raiders.

Jason M… The Vikings pressured Goff 17 times last meeting but only sacked 4. There were a few very close calls but in the end they got torched…do you think they change their strategy or keep it the same?

Sacking 4 out of 17 actually is a pretty good rate. Goff usually only gets sacked on 16% of pressures, which is one of the best rates in the league. You are barking up the right tree here though, I think. Because the Lions offense did well against them earlier this year, it feels like they should change up something but if they pressure him 17 times again, it’s really unlikely that he’s going to put up the same type of numbers that he did in the first matchup. Goff ranks 22nd in PFF grade under pressure and has a 51.8% completion percentage, so the odds are better than not if he’s flustered back there he won’t be effective.

Justin M…How does having a healthy defense (specifically Cashman) change what Vikes D does compared to last game against Det? Also wondering if you have any insight into how Det offense has evolved throughout the season. I think this cat & mouse will be the difference in the game: if we can muster a few stops/turnovers where Det gets no points we have a good chance of winning

I remember thinking that they didn’t feel like the same “amoeba” type of defense without Cashman in there. It’s not just that he can make changes at the line of scrimmage, it’s that he’s excellent at communicating them late in the clock he moves around a lot himself to give QBs different looks. It’s really difficult to identify if he’s blitzing or if Pace Jr. is blitzing and where they are going once they rush.

For the Lions, not having David Montgomery is a big thing but also having a much more confident Jameson Williams. He only had one catch against the Vikings but in the last eight games he’s averaging 4.4 catches for 75.8 yards per game. That’s a pace of 74 for almost 1,300 over a full season. Williams is a very serious threat now.

I agree with your takeaway. It’s about holding onto the ball and making a few plays here or there. It’s going to be really hard to control the game on defense, even as good as the Vikings are on that side.

Bradley P… Do you foresee a situation where either of these two teams blows their opponent out? Is it destined to be a nail biter until the end.

Sure, there’s always a chance of that because it’s football and random stuff happens but it seems unlikely with the way the teams are designed. Think about all the games between the Vikings/Lions/Packers all season long and how close they have been though. Even if one team gets ahead, games are never over with these types of offenses.

Bruce S….I'm curious on your thoughts about how we can use the lions aggression against them. Goff's quick release and success on 4th down are crazy. What an awesome conversation to be having for the #1 seed and home field advantage. HUGE non-playoff game!!

There’s only one way, Bruce: Stop them. The fourth down stops can be such game changers, as we saw from the NFC Championship with San Francisco. Getting one or two big stops on fourth down can turn an entire game. I also think that getting them into positions that are uncomfortable decisions on fourth down is key. If you allow Detroit to get into fourth-and-2, that’s a pretty easy conversion for them. If it’s fourth-and-7 at mid-field, that’s a much tougher call. With a team like Detroit, that probably does start with stopping Jahmyr Gibbs.

Another thing is, the Lions are also a top five team on third down and unsurprisingly they have the lowest yards to go on third downs of any team in the league. It’s all interconnected. If you can’t stop the early-down runs, then they’re going to get to third-and-manageable which turns into fourth-and-short and then they’ll keep drives alive.

Brent G… Do you think Flores will change anything in the way he calls the defense knowing that Goff has shredded him quite a few times against the blitz

That’s the thing about Flores, we never really know what he has up his sleeve. Clearly the Lions have had a beat on some of the things he’s done in the recent matchups so there has to be some changes. I don’t know what those changes are going to be. Maybe it’s the way that they rush or maybe it’ll be a lot of simulated pressures that send four but with the rushers coming from different areas. What Flores’s challenge in this game probably comes down to is: Can you get Goff to make one mistaken read or the O-line to misidentify the rush one or two times and cause a big miscue from the Lions?

Carlton W…. If the Vikings win on Sunday night and finish the regular season with 15 wins, it would be the second time they have done so in franchise history. Who would you take in a matchup the 1998 and 2024 Minnesota Vikings?

I would take 1998 because the 2024 Vikings are not stopping Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Jake Reed. That team outscored its opponents 556 to 296. They beat an 11-5 Jaguars team 50-10 that year. I do think that the gap between the good teams and the rest of the league back then was much wider than it is now and we see that in the NFL setting one-score game records all the time so we have to adjust for that but the ‘98 team is one of the best groups ever put together in history.

Jason… What is your key personnel match up of this game and why?

I’ll go with Justin Jefferson versus whoever is trying to guard Justin Jefferson. The Lions can’t stop him but I imagine they are going to dare the officials to throw 20 flags on the field on Sunday Night Football. Jefferson has played nine games against the Lions and has 69 catches for 1,154 yards. That’s insane.

On the other side, it’s Cashman vs. the Goff at the line of scrimmage. Also Greenard throttled Taylor Decker in the first matchup. Decker gave up six pressures and had a 25.6 PFF grade. Greenard is the type that can change a game instantly, as we saw against Chicago.

Brad L… Hockenson has been good this year, but maybe not great. How much is injury hangover and how much is scheme? Also do you foresee any change in his play going against his former team and the one that injured him? (Any revenge effect?)

I dunno man, he’s PFF’s sixth highest graded tight end in receiving grade and has made nine of 13 contested catches. Since the Jaguars game, which was his first back and he only played about half the snaps, he’s on a 900-yard pace for the season. There’s three TEs in the league over 900 yards this year. That’s top notch.

As far as his play, it entirely depends on what’s happening behind him. If the defense is going to try to play deep and keep an umbrella over Jefferson and Addison, then he has a chance to rack up numbers. If they can’t cover the downfield stuff, you know that Darnold is going to let it loose. I can’t see him playing any differently because he’s going up against Detroit. He always brings it.