Friday Mailbag: The big Darnold question

Sam Darnold keeps making his case... what would it take to keep him?

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everybody? Well, we’ve been looking forward to this game for a really long time. Let’s dive into Vikings vs. Kirk and much more….

Matt… Assuming they don’t take the top spot from the Lions, who is the best matchup for the first round? Who is the worst? I may feel different after Sunday, but I’d say Falcons are the best and the Rams are the worst.

We have to see how they match up against the Falcons on Sunday first but that would be my pick for the best Round 1 Vikings matchup. The quarterback is lacking in physical talent and they don’t have a great pass rush. I would be worried about Baker Mayfield going crazy for a game with Mike Evans or Vita Vea blowing up the game or Todd Bowles’s blitzes getting home over and over. Arizona just played a better overall football game than the Vikings and we saw what their coaches could do. The Rams are a scary because Stafford can still sling it and their D-line is really good. I’m not sure the same outcome happens if the Vikings go out there on full rest next time though. Seattle can also get hot on offense.

It’s not going to be easy no matter where they go but there are a lot of favorable matchups on the list and home field advantage has never been less than it is right now.

Bradley P…. How different would this team have been if they (A) cut ties with cousins two years earlier or (B) extended him another 2-3 years?

If they moved on in 2022, the plan may have still have taken them here anyway. They would have signed somebody like Marcus Mariota, probably competed for a playoff spot, torn it mostly down in 2023 and still not had a shot at the top QBs and then ended up picking fairly high in 2024 and taking McCarthy or Penix Jr. (Of course, a million other things could have happened along the way so who knows).

If they extended him, they’d be Atlanta. They would be a 6-6 team with a QB who could occasionally win games by getting the ball to great receivers but the offense was severely limited and the defense wouldn’t be anywhere near as good because they couldn’t sign the Greenard/Cashman/Van Ginkel trio. Maybe they still would have drafted McCarthy, they just would have told Kirk about it first, unlike the Falcons. We would be talking about how they were going to start McCarthy behind the eight ball in 2025 because the cap would be in trouble for the future.

It can’t be overstated how well Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell navigated them through the QB decision with Kirk last year and the signing of Sam and drafting of McCarthy. It sent the franchise on a path where they can be good for years rather than being handcuffed for years.

Brad L…. What is more likely from Kirk Cousins this week: 4 TDs or 4 INTs?

No question the answer is four interceptions with the way he’s been playing lately but would you be surprised if the Vikings won 42-28 and Cousins had 4 TDs, 386 yards and a 130.3 QB rating?

Kidding aside, I’ve seen Kirk bounce back from bad games so many times, the Vikings can’t assume he’s just going to keep struggling. Their weapons and O-line are too good.

Biggest Monke… I see many people wanting to re-sign Sam Darnold as they view him as the reason for our success. However, I feel that the reason for our success this year are the players we were able to sign due to his cheap contract, meaning if we re-sign him to a large contract, we lose his cap space value

OK but the Vikings are spending $40 million on the quarterback position this year because of Kirk’s $28 million dead cap number. If they franchise tagged Darnold, they could spend about the same and then kick the can down the road another year and run it back. They signed free agents this year with bigger cap hits down the road, which they could do again with free agents in win-now mode.

There are lots of teams at the top of the food chain with expensive QBs. The Bills, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens and Eagles all have second contract QBs. They just did it in ways that they could still have flexibility, which any team can do in a short window. A franchise tag for Sam doesn’t hurt their ability to go sign a pass rushing DT to a three-year deal. And we know the Wilfs will put up the money to do it.

Plus, you have to consider the fact that Jefferson, Darrisaw, Addison, Hockenson and KOC will all keep being here. It’s not like there’s a major change on the horizon offensively.

If you were talking about signing Darnold to a 5-year contract, then this would be a pretty serious problem, yes.

Let’s also keep in mind that the reason Kirk’s contract was such a problem was that he wasn’t a top-10 QB who could elevate players around him. Darnold is playing top 10 football right now and his arm talent is elite, as we’ve seen the last few weeks.

Personally, I need a bigger sample size of Darnold through the rest of the season and playoffs. He’s been marvelous through 12 games. If it continues, they might not have a choice but to run it back because it’s not like Darnold is some old washed QB or a career backup. This is what he was supposed to be.

Griffin… Does Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold complete the 4th quarter comeback?

Well, Kirk is some kind of wizard when it comes to those fourth-quarter comebacks. The Vikings have to make sure if they are up 13 points in the fourth that they don’t take the foot off the gas pedal defensively and start sitting back in zones. He will pick that stuff apart.

The way we’re all projecting the game to go, I’d be surprised if the Vikings are losing in the fourth quarter and need to come back. At the same time, them being worn down on defense might haunt them one of these weeks.

Jeff D…. What’s the more likely game plan, from Flores: blitz heavy, banking on Kirk to get happy feet, or rush four, and force Kirk to find open receivers, while dropping 7 into coverage?

All of it. I’m thinking that Flores is going to show a lot of pressures and drop guys into underneath zones to cover the short stuff and then when they get to third-and-long really hit him with some wild blitzes and try to get a turnover. They need to make sure they’re slowing down the run game first, which will be tough without Pace Jr.

Mike…. Hey Matt I enjoyed the chat w Renner. One topic never brought up is if Darnold earns a second contract. What trade value could you pull out of McCarthy? Likely would be top QB in this years draft w a year of NFL tutelage under KOC. Not saying it’s the right call, but would be a fascinating discussion of value around trading JJ

In a theoretical world, there are a handful of teams that should be willing to give up two first-round picks for McCarthy at this point. The Raiders and Giants are the first that come to mind. It would mitigate the cap issue to get two more first-rounders, especially if they are high picks.

In the real world if they decided to keep Darnold, they would still want JJ to stay here and let it play out before they moved him. They would have an outstanding backup option for 2025 and be ready to turn to McCarthy whenever the time comes. Think about it in the same way the Packers handled Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Even if Darnold was the QB for two more years, McCarthy would be around Bo Nix’s age in 2026 and still have some rookie contract left. Slow play it if Darnold earns another year.

Pickle Enjoyer…. Does Kirk's Achilles injury explain why his passes have as much velocity as a Jamie Moyer fastball?

Yes. Last year he was still throwing the ball pretty hard. I do think there was a regression in his velocity after 2021 but it was definitely an NFL arm especially when he stepped into it. Now he can’t get the drive off of his legs in the same way. Another part of it is that he didn’t have an offseason. You can get into playing shape quickly but lasting a full season is a 365-day effort.

Brad L…. Knowing Atlanta will attack Moreau or whoever is replacing Gilmore, how does Flores take advantage of that?

It’s always with deception. Trying to make it look like Moreau might be on an island and rotate the coverage late or dropping back someone into space where they might be running underneath routes. Things like that. But with Moreau, the dude isn’t a terrible player. The CBs have been healthy so he hasn’t played but he only gave up an 87.5 QB rating into his coverage last year in over 700 snaps with Denver. They shouldn’t have to be terrified of him playing 1-on-1 against someone.

Bradley P…. Hearing you and Manny speak of what it would take to pry away KOC… which coaches would you put above him right now? How many coaching staffs are better than the Vikings collection?

I don’t know if there’s any amount of draft picks you could send the Vikings to get KOC away from them. There are so, so, so many bad coaches

Chuck… what is the chord progression you are playing (I could figure it out by ear but it’s easier to ask)?

My biggest concern for Sam Darnold is the time it takes to pick his target. Is he slow going through progressions, is he hesitant, or is it the offense structure?

The guitar intro is a couple of triads and hammer-ons on the high E. I think it’s an F#m triad starting on the G string, then Bm played up in the first pentatonic position of Bm across the three highest strings and then down to F#m with the same shape.

I don’t think Darnold is struggling to see the field or go through progressions as much as he is hanging with a read to see if it flashes open. Think about the Jordan Addison 69-yard catch in Chicago. He had to wait on Addison to get across the field and then rip it to a spot. He’s trying to run plays the way KOC designs.

I asked KOC this week about what Darnold’s arm does for his scheme and he said that he has to hold himself back knowing that these plays actually have to be blocked up in order to work.

That doesn’t mean Sam is perfect with it. In fact, I think he actually goes through progressions a little too quickly sometimes and moves off an open guy. And sometimes he’s not quite identifying the rush fast enough because his eyes are immediately going down field. But all this is nitpicking. He’s been tremendous with his overall decision making from the pocket.

Eldon…. We have seen a lot about the Kirk cousins return but what about the return of former Vikings first round pick Mike Hughes will he have a big game against Minnesota??

I’ll always feel bad for Mike Hughes. Really talented player who flashed a number of times with the Vikings and had terrible injury luck. It’s nice that he’s still been able to have a reasonable NFL career after the neck injury looked like it was going to end it for him.

Tim……Kirk has had a bit of a rough stretch, I know the Falcons are not your primary focus it seemed after last week Penix was looking like he might be given a chance to play. My opinion of Penix, I think he’s got a lot of Cousins in him. Great passer but not very elusive. Are the Falcons having trouble protecting Kirk? Is he hanging on to the ball too long. These are not the best questions, but I honestly haven’t seen more than a couple highlights of the Falcons.

Penix Jr. was one of the least sacked QBs in college football last year. He was great at getting rid of the ball quickly. Remember his 4.46 40-yard dash, by the way? Just because someone isn’t a running QB doesn’t mean they don’t have good pocket presence or can’t scramble when called upon. Also, Penix Jr. has a much, much, much stronger arm than what Cousins has right now and can let it rip without a perfect pocket.

The Falcons aren’t having trouble protecting Kirk. He doesn’t have an above average sack or pressure rate. Pressure isn’t the problem. He’s 20th in the league in PFF grade with a clean pocket.

Never Played Madden…. What is your level of faith in KOC as a quarterback whisperer? Do you think he could reinvent Jameis Winston into near-Darnold level as a backup to JJ next year? Is this for sure Harrison Smith’s last year? Any idea if he wants to come back again? Would they want him back at a similar price?

Jameis Winston is horrendous. The internet loves him because he’s entertaining but I want nothing to do with him. His problem wasn’t supporting cast or coaching like Darnold. He has had some of the best coaches around (Arians, Payton, Stefanski) and he’s still just a reckless mess out there. Hard pass.

In terms of “QB Whisperer,” there’s no such thing. There’s environments. It’s an entire thing here. First and foremost, it’s Justin Jefferson. Nobody is more valuable to a quarterback. It’s Addison, Hockenson, a line that pass blocks well and KOC, McCown, the Wilfs … it all comes together to allow a player to maximize his skill at that position. Not just KOC. That’s not to downplay his approach and scheme, just that nobody single-handedly makes QBs suddenly great.

I’m not sure what Harry is thinking about this year but any time you reach this point there is always a good chance it’s the hast hurrah. My guess is that he has a purple uniform as long as he wants it.

TheDude…. Any hints from the coaches that Jalen Redmond has earned more snaps going forward? He was incredible in that last game.

He was excellent, yeah. We probably don’t need to read between any lines in a situation like this. Redmond keeps balling, he’ll keep playing more and more.

Neil T…. Read your Monday column about this season not being a repeat of '22, and I agree with the premise. But... for the first 3 1/2 games, up to the final minute before halftime at Lambeau, the Vikings' point differential was +83(!). In the 8 1/2 games since, they're a -5 while going 7-2 in that span. That's a lot like 2022. I guess my point is that fans aren't bringing up '22 for no reason. Of course this is a different team. There's a different QB, and the defense is massively better. What's the line, history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme?

Here’s what I don’t understand: If we’re analyzing a team, why are we eliminating games from the evaluation? Is there evidence that early season don’t tell us anything about a team? If that’s the case, then why do all the 0-3 teams miss the playoffs?

I don’t see how it’s like 2022 when this year’s losses were by 2 and 10 points (shoulda been 8). The 2022 losses were them getting trounced. You also worked pretty hard to make it a minus point differential when you started at halftime of the Green Bay game. Every team gets outscored after being up 28. That’s just stats spinning to make it fit your opinion, not actually following the numbers.

The 2023 Lions had a stretch from Week 7 through Week 14 where they had a -29 point differential, which was 26th in the league during that span. They ended up in the NFC Championship one play away from the Super Bowl. The 2021 Rams had a three-game losing streak where they had a -41 point differential and only finished +88 overall because of it.

You also acknowledge that the entire dang team is different and then tell me it’s still worth bringing up? I don’t get it. The Vikings have the No. 2 defense in Expected Points Added vs. 26th in 2022. That’s so insanely different. It makes zero sense to bring up 2022.

Do you remember who they played in 2022, by the way? Taylor Heinicke. Mike White. Justin Fields (x2). Mac Jones. Daniel Jones. Washed Matt Ryan. This year they have beaten Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray and lost to two dudes who have been in the Super Bowl by 12 total points. How is that similar at all?

How about this stat from Justis Mosqueda (a Packers guy!) who shows that the Vikings differential between passing (even adjusted for INTs and sacks) offense and defense is as big as any of the contenders.

We’re going on five straight weeks of that same “they’re frauds!” sentiment in the mailbag and they’ve won every game. I dunno man, I don’t see many other teams with two five-game win streaks this year.

But here’s the thing: They aren’t perfect. They are not the 1993 Cowboys. They are not the best team in the NFL this year. They are not the Super Bowl favorites. I think we can be a little more nuanced in our analysis than just declaring the team either the greatest thing ever or totally fraudulent, right? The truth is, the rest of the season matters. Playoff matchups matter. Health matters. Darnold’s consistency matters.

Right now the Vikings are in a tier of teams along with the Packers, Commanders, Steelers and Texans who are very good but do not quite have the same resume as Buffalo, Detroit or Philadelphia. That’s what the all the evidence says. What happens from here will tell us a lot more about who they are.

Speedi…. You wrote an article that super bowl windows are short. How can we not go all in next year with Sam as primary and jj as a backup?

Generally speaking they are. If you’re Buffalo or KC, they’re not. If the Vikings go 13-4 and reach the NFC Championship Game and lose 35-32 in Philadelphia or something insane like that, I don’t know how you wouldn’t run it back. Use the franchise tag on Darnold, still spend with contracts that are back-loaded for free agents.

Mark T… The Vikings were supposed to have someone on staff learn everything they can from Flores, due to the potential of him leaving for a head coaching job. Who is that person and will they be ready to take the reins next year?

If he were to get a head coaching job, it would seem that the most likely person would be Daronte Jones, the defensive backs coach. Really sharp guy who has been with Flores both years and knows the system and play calling style inside and out.

Bradley P…. Thinking of Sam’s success this year how would you attribute it (feel free to pie chart): outstanding supporting cast, KOC game plan/coaching, positive work environment, defense giving him good field position/hope, Sam’s development?

I’d go with 50% supporting cast, 30% game-plan and coaching, 20% defense.

How about this for a Justin Jefferson stat: When Sam Darnold targets him over 10 yards downfield, he is 35-for-54 with 792 yards. That is absolutely bananas. Absurd. Insane.

When a QB has this much around him and really good coaching, we get to see the true version of their ceiling. Darnold’s playing at a top 10 level because all the parts have come together. Give the O-line some credit too. Before this year Darnold had never played with a top 20 PFF ranked pass blocking unit. This year the Vikings are top 10.